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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:33am On Jul 30, 2025

Locotrader:
Today Royalex is our top stock to watch.
Among the penny stocks Q2 results released so far,Royalex stands at the top position.

Market must push Royalex to N2+ because of this result alone.Wait for it and also hold on for Q3 and see another level.Hold on till Q4 and see the best of Royalex in 2025/2026.

Which result please? Estimated FY of 0.36 , or am I missing something here? Please clarify. The EPS is annualized. Or have I missed something? huh

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:54am On Jul 30, 2025

Sunrisepebble:
Please explain these your numbers to us

@Sunrisepebble
What an honor. Just check out the NB EPS growth from the H1 ( 135%) and it would become clearer. It’s really about growth. For a company that turns from negative to positive just add to get the range. Only one proviso, the momentum must have to be sustained or surpassed for the mathematical assumption to hold.

You have my utmost respect and admiration. Thank you for all you do in adding to the growth of our portfolio.

23 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:41am On Jul 30, 2025

Cadbury Common Sense Target is 69.76-87.2. Should it maintain current momentum. Probably into Q1 0f 2026 for the upper range. FY 2025 should level out around EPS of 12+ though but with strong push into Q1 of 2026 if the economy continues to expand.

Still check out their financials/ earnings statement /due diligence.

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:22pm On Jul 29, 2025

Common Sense Target for NB is N74.08-89.04.

Using H1
(8.28+2.85) x 2 x4 =89.04

Using Q2
(1.42+3.21) x4 x 4 = 74.08

Range = 74.08-89.04

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:40am On Jul 29, 2025

jonnysessy:
That is why it is common sense entry point 🤣🤣🤣

Exit not entry. It should become clearer next quarter.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:34am On Jul 29, 2025

Common Sense Target for International breweries (365 days target) is N33.84 should it maintain the current momentum.

@street… this one is for you. 😇

5 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:21am On Jul 29, 2025

Common Sense Target for Custodian is N35.04. Range is N35.04-43.80. Good if it makes a pullback so as guarantee at least a 20% gain.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:53am On Jul 29, 2025

aj8:
Common Sense Target for Mutual Benefits N2.16. Still 50% upside from current price. Best to buy below N1.50.

0.54 x 4 = N2.16

Range N2.16-2.70

Still do your due diligence.

Mutual Benefits is still on course based on the Q1. Likely to move a bit more rapidly to the lower range. OS is so huge.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:43am On Jul 28, 2025

Mankind2024:
👍
The audio version is no longer available on YouTube. Fortunately, i downloaded it.
Another version is:
Mark Douglas trading psychology: 25 important lessons for your trading journey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le-xv3jmWTc?si=igrv8q2IsPU2Hyh9

A million thanks.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:33am On Jul 28, 2025

Mankind2024:
It's time for Locotrader to level up and become a Locoinvestor from Q3 2025 onwards.
I'm excited to share my top recommendations for Locodemy. Let me know if you'd like more information!

1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa6HRIzlW5k?si=3xIsiKZ6ahwPg07E

2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teNcGiKoM18?si=jzI15l0bSYdR_9-K

3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ue7iMBfwkr8?si=xS6tNILj-DWBQOCC

4.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp7Lz1svVro?si=OHwlyep7SewtvtCm

5.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJbd65dcYmc?si=fjM8W1fthT56Tnmn

6.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lClUECUwqFE?si=gtHBls4y0nL_K-NB

7.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7ungtK4zwA?si=1cZrAblBx78coTWL

@Mankind2024

Thank you again for the above post.

Can I please have the title of No. 7. I listened to it and loved it but its no longer available on Youtube.

Thank you

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:37pm On Jul 26, 2025

emmaodet:
Well, i agree but the truth is they are burning too much cash and diluting too much for the expected revenue.
During my calculation, They were burning on average less than 1b naira negative free cash flow per year.
So, if they claimed to have burn 4b so far within this fiscal year, that amount is enough to run the farm for 4 years and not just a short period.
Last year was around 600m negative cashflow (total cost of running the farm)
In 2020 - 440m was used to run the farms and 2.2b to buy PPEs). total burnt 2.6b
In 2023 - 490m was used for OCF + 16.7m in PPE. Total burnt 510m
in 2024 - 286m used on OCF + 212m in PPE). Total 498m
Q3/25 - so far so good, in the past 9m of 2025 FY, they have spent 507m on daily running farm operations and another 212m in capital expenditure) Total is 719m.
So how come they are have been burning billions, billions and more billions to come running the company?
If you calculate the amount shareholders have invested so far in equity since 2022 plus director's loans converted so far, it is enough to run the farm till maturity.
Maybe i am wrong though

I am trying to apply some common sense here: huh

A lot of clues to what to expect? Not good am afraid! Even if better in days to come. But not good as of NOW..
1. Evidence of Increasing cost of running the concern....CEO’s remarks
2. Had not enough cash at hand even at the EGM ...probably still nothing being generated or grossly inadequate…CEO’s remark
Implied the mill is not running yet since low on cash. Or, the sell of ffb wasn't enough to cover immediate costs.
3. Probably Directors sold off part of their shares at the market to raise funds for the company…or they gave cash… that they gave cash is very unlikely.
4. If shares were sold off to raise cash for the company, those who sold might have sold to get back same units at the future price…so that it wont affect their initial holding
5. If the Directors raised cash as cash loan, then why the reference to stock price of 2.80?
6. Issue before SEC could either be were the stocks option traded…type of transaction or merely raised cash at that then current price or just gave the company cash to run the business as a loan? Not sure which of these or any of which is legal. However if they were executed as insider trading, that information of insider transact would or should have been made public. And even if so, the shares were not belonging to the company at that time unless they were transferred to the company to dispose off at the then current price as a loan and return the loaned units back in future .. Wouldn't make any logical sense, least common sense.
7. Bothered that no mention of the oil mill in or around the EGM even after it was widely circulated on social media… with or without board approval
8. Too much secrecy, too little information.

I certainly share the view that land mass can be put to good use in good hands especially in palm oil cultivation and subsequently value chain derivatives to enormous profits, rice, cassavava, soya etc. However, its one thing to have a vision, but another to bring it to birth. I share the vision but sadly I do not share the mode of operations.

If the scarcity of authentic information is deliberate to keep the price down from soaring beyond the reach of directors loading up okay I can understand but that isn't working because the price has soared significantly….mostly on recently released social media information on X.

Could the frog be trying to swallow the snake or its the snake swallowing the frogs?

The management has to provide information information information and more information. We are not buying into a secret society.

Just trying to make sense of it all.

9 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:37am On Jul 25, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
You are too gentle
We wan drag you

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:42pm On Jul 24, 2025

pluto09:
The attraction of his method for me was the inherent simplicity. It is getting a bit complex now 😊
Though I understand it is difficult to find bargain again unlike what we had last year.

There is nothing complex. It's just maths. Only when there is a turnaround do I recognize and accommodate the improvement. The important thing is that it's incredibly accurate. It's my simple way to identify value and book a front row seat on a stock. So far, I am not sure whether it's ever failed. I will audit it someday. Go through previous posts to understand it properly. All I can say is that it has made me money over the years. I just felt it was okay to share with others. But please do not just take my word for it. Do your due diligence always. Bargains are still there and I would gladly post them as they emerge. Aj8 Common Sense is not the only strategy but it's mine and I am proud of it by the grace of God. However please note that I still pay attention to calls my some very remarkable folks on this platform and I have often used their insight to buttress my convictions on some stocks. Ymcy, Pa Emma, Sunrisep, Megaintentional, karlTom, Street.., pluto9, Agba, current price, and many others too numerous to mention. I am immensely grateful to you all. Enjoy what you have while you can. We are as breath, once it's gone, it's gone. Happy trading.

23 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:50pm On Jul 24, 2025

pluto09:
Is it correct to say you are projecting an eps of N19.72 for the company by year end

No not year end, but in a year to a year and half. Its all about taking front row seats.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:02pm On Jul 24, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
How do you have common sense target for a negative EPS according to your formula?

Its called mathematics. If you can recall your x y vectors

-11, -10, -09, -08, -07, -06, -05, -04, -03, -02, -01, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9, +10, +11

There is 9 difference between -11 and -2
Between -11.86 and -2 = 9.86 that's the degree of improvement at H1
H1 x2 = FY
9.86x 2= 19.72
Common Sense strategy = FY forcast x4 but range x5
=19.72 x 4 = 78.88 QED sir.

19.72 x 5 = 98.60

Range will therefore be
78.88 - 98.60

QED.

11 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:36am On Jul 24, 2025

EDUECO:

You're doing well

Expect it to drop a little first for the big guys to take position.

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:05am On Jul 24, 2025

Common Sense target for Dan Sugar is N78.88

10 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:00am On Jul 24, 2025

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:35pm On Jul 23, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
I hope you don't mean to say the present price of wapco is because of the chinko deal.I will say the present appreciation is based on the company new performance. The chinko deal is not yet binding on minority shareholders because it has not passed any agm or egm and approved by minority shareholders for thr own stake. The was seen in PZ case.
If the shareholders had approved it before any appreciation on the floor this is whr risk comes.The deal for minority shareholders has not been placed before them
Another example is IE insurance. The shareholders have approved the deal long ago and can be short changed in the future.
All we have on ground is a proposal and never a bidding agreement. The shareholders still holds the hammer

No. But the price of crayfish must include the price of the water its swimming in. 😀

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:47pm On Jul 23, 2025

Sunrisepebble:
I’m not talking about the takeover price. My opinion is the company will remain listed, I’m talking about the valuation of the company based on the H1 result
If they do come with that MTO price of N100 I honestly don’t think it will go down well with anyone at all, even National Assembly who they’re having issues with at the moment

The more reason it's risky. May end up not happening and price will find its level.

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:29am On Jul 23, 2025

TIP and Guiness Good positive action around BM. ⬆️⬆️⬆️✅✅✅
Berger slight drop around BM..probably on course

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:16pm On Jul 22, 2025

KarlTom:
UPDATED

@KarlTom
Thank you for the updates. Simple but so useful and powerful in monitoring insider activities around BM…(volume-price action around BM).
Please keep up the good work. 👊👊👊

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:04pm On Jul 22, 2025

aj8:
Fidelity vs Wema….quite a match playing out here.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:11pm On Jul 22, 2025

yMcy56:
@Aj8
Kindly assist to check the common sense value of MEYER
With CAP at close to 70, I think Meyer is undervalued at below 20....
Financials checked and ok from my amateur's perspective.
Thanks sir.

@yMcy56 Meyer’s 2024 dividend was 30k.
Q1 2025 earnings per share..33k
X4 of this = 1.32
X4 x4 of this = 5.28

Current price =17.05
Current price / Common Sense price =17.05/5.28 = 3.229

CAP’s 2024 dividend… N2.40
Q1 2025 earnings per share N1.41
X4 of this = 5.64
X4 x4 of this = 22.56
Current price = 66.00

Current price / Common Sense price = 66/22.56 =2.926

For Meyer to be at par with CAP based on earnings
Current Price/ 5.64 = 2.926
Current price must fall to 5.64x2.926 =16.50

Already at these prices,
CAP dividend at N2.40 assumption =2.40/66 x 100 =3.6%

Meyer dividend at 30k assumption = 0.30/17.05 x 100 = 1.8 %

For Meyer to be par with CAP,
Dividend /17.05 x 100 =3.6
100 Dividend = 17.05 x3.6=61.38
Dividend =61.38/100 = 0.6138

Meyer will need to pay at least 60k dividend to have a yield approximately that of CAP at their current prices.

However CAPs Q1 2025 change vs Q1 2024 is about flat
While Meyer Q 1 , 2025 is huge compared to Meyer’s Q1 2024 change

Only based on if this trajectory can be sustained into following year can I see huge prospects in Meyer.

Therefore, for Meyer to make Common Sense, I would buy below N16.50 and pray and hold a couple of years.

The ratio of the current price of CAP to that of Meyer is 3.87

Let’s watch the price action on the 25th July during and around the BM to give some clues to insider information on their Q2 results. If green with increasing volume and price..i may consider buying and if red hold or better still run.

Of course anything is still possible. This is NGX, not everything needs make sense but I like to play safe.

Apologies for all the mathematics.

10 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:04am On Jul 18, 2025

Every forum has those who watch silently observe and note intelligently, some watch lost trying to figure out what the heck is happening, a few pop in and out like the blue moon revered in their aura of humility and rare insight, some feature to champion the wealth creation sustainable cause “ let no one be left behind”, some with their red noses bearing the grin of a Cheshire cat spraying humor as if spraying Naira at a wedding event. This forum will not be what it is without all. But, all said, we are here because we want to lift ourselves and loved ones way above the poverty line. That we can all respect.

15 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:30am On Jul 15, 2025

megawealth01:
To whom it concerns...

Don’t mind them. This one they will do fast. I have had very sad experiences with them. I am not saying they are not good but they have offered me very inadequate service back to back. Will commend them when and if they do improve. My Wema bank dividend is still unpaid even after their so called approval for e-payment ( weeks after). I am totally in support of the special fund. I can’t help feeling that some of these registrars and companies gain from dividends not being paid or even worse, frustrated as long as possible. The longer, possibly the better their gain/yield.
Why shouldn’t they pay interest once held over a significant period of time? Maybe this type of pranks would stop.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:55pm On Jul 11, 2025

With these back-to-back 10% appreciation, its becoming harder to take profit. To take profit is it not to sell shares? If the shares remain?

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:41am On Jul 09, 2025

KarlTom:
Sold DEAPCAP & CADBURY today at +10%.
I forsee a slight drop in ELLAH and CADBURY before Friday

Every mallam to his kettle...

aj8:
Common Sense Target for Cadbury N69.96-93.28
I applied a 75% penalty because of the huge Retained loss. Target probably into 2026 Q1 especially if considering N93.28
Please do your research. Purely based on the current trajectory if maintained or surpassed. Not likely to turn the corner to positive till Q2 2026. Now is the front-row seat I guess. Current price N39.25

Still a lot more upside for Cadbury, KarlTom. May be tough getting back in at a lower price unless Q2 disappoints.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:12am On Jul 08, 2025

Who will insure the future 1 trillion economy?

The insurance company will rise to the task once restructuring/regulations/ethics and controls become right and the overall economy starts to make sense.

The industry is still not big enough. Can a baby look after an adult?

8 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:56am On Jul 08, 2025

megawealth01:
Just for the RECORDS

The rationale for those who have years on their side to own a million units of any “cheap” stock with future potential. The value could well be in millions/billions of Naira in many years to come.

A ten-year future perspective oftentimes helps. Just be sure to tick the boxes, good price, good prospects, …..buy a million units or accumulate to a million. Relax and lock emotions from occasional rough sea volatility and sail to wealth.

Gems are not so easy to find, not as sand, but once you see one, weigh the risks, and lock in.

12 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:05pm On Jul 07, 2025

Common Sense Target for Mutual Benefits N2.16. Still 50% upside from current price. Best to buy below N1.50.

0.54 x 4 = N2.16

Range N2.16-2.70

Still do your due diligence.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:24pm On Jul 04, 2025

Ignorance is loud

Another unforgettable saying.…

5 Likes

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