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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:16pm On Jul 22, 2025

KarlTom:
UPDATED

@KarlTom
Thank you for the updates. Simple but so useful and powerful in monitoring insider activities around BM…(volume-price action around BM).
Please keep up the good work. 👊👊👊

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:04pm On Jul 22, 2025

aj8:
Fidelity vs Wema….quite a match playing out here.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:11pm On Jul 22, 2025

yMcy56:
@Aj8
Kindly assist to check the common sense value of MEYER
With CAP at close to 70, I think Meyer is undervalued at below 20....
Financials checked and ok from my amateur's perspective.
Thanks sir.

@yMcy56 Meyer’s 2024 dividend was 30k.
Q1 2025 earnings per share..33k
X4 of this = 1.32
X4 x4 of this = 5.28

Current price =17.05
Current price / Common Sense price =17.05/5.28 = 3.229

CAP’s 2024 dividend… N2.40
Q1 2025 earnings per share N1.41
X4 of this = 5.64
X4 x4 of this = 22.56
Current price = 66.00

Current price / Common Sense price = 66/22.56 =2.926

For Meyer to be at par with CAP based on earnings
Current Price/ 5.64 = 2.926
Current price must fall to 5.64x2.926 =16.50

Already at these prices,
CAP dividend at N2.40 assumption =2.40/66 x 100 =3.6%

Meyer dividend at 30k assumption = 0.30/17.05 x 100 = 1.8 %

For Meyer to be par with CAP,
Dividend /17.05 x 100 =3.6
100 Dividend = 17.05 x3.6=61.38
Dividend =61.38/100 = 0.6138

Meyer will need to pay at least 60k dividend to have a yield approximately that of CAP at their current prices.

However CAPs Q1 2025 change vs Q1 2024 is about flat
While Meyer Q 1 , 2025 is huge compared to Meyer’s Q1 2024 change

Only based on if this trajectory can be sustained into following year can I see huge prospects in Meyer.

Therefore, for Meyer to make Common Sense, I would buy below N16.50 and pray and hold a couple of years.

The ratio of the current price of CAP to that of Meyer is 3.87

Let’s watch the price action on the 25th July during and around the BM to give some clues to insider information on their Q2 results. If green with increasing volume and price..i may consider buying and if red hold or better still run.

Of course anything is still possible. This is NGX, not everything needs make sense but I like to play safe.

Apologies for all the mathematics.

10 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:04am On Jul 18, 2025

Every forum has those who watch silently observe and note intelligently, some watch lost trying to figure out what the heck is happening, a few pop in and out like the blue moon revered in their aura of humility and rare insight, some feature to champion the wealth creation sustainable cause “ let no one be left behind”, some with their red noses bearing the grin of a Cheshire cat spraying humor as if spraying Naira at a wedding event. This forum will not be what it is without all. But, all said, we are here because we want to lift ourselves and loved ones way above the poverty line. That we can all respect.

15 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:30am On Jul 15, 2025

megawealth01:
To whom it concerns...

Don’t mind them. This one they will do fast. I have had very sad experiences with them. I am not saying they are not good but they have offered me very inadequate service back to back. Will commend them when and if they do improve. My Wema bank dividend is still unpaid even after their so called approval for e-payment ( weeks after). I am totally in support of the special fund. I can’t help feeling that some of these registrars and companies gain from dividends not being paid or even worse, frustrated as long as possible. The longer, possibly the better their gain/yield.
Why shouldn’t they pay interest once held over a significant period of time? Maybe this type of pranks would stop.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:55pm On Jul 11, 2025

With these back-to-back 10% appreciation, its becoming harder to take profit. To take profit is it not to sell shares? If the shares remain?

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:41am On Jul 09, 2025

KarlTom:
Sold DEAPCAP & CADBURY today at +10%.
I forsee a slight drop in ELLAH and CADBURY before Friday

Every mallam to his kettle...

aj8:
Common Sense Target for Cadbury N69.96-93.28
I applied a 75% penalty because of the huge Retained loss. Target probably into 2026 Q1 especially if considering N93.28
Please do your research. Purely based on the current trajectory if maintained or surpassed. Not likely to turn the corner to positive till Q2 2026. Now is the front-row seat I guess. Current price N39.25

Still a lot more upside for Cadbury, KarlTom. May be tough getting back in at a lower price unless Q2 disappoints.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:12am On Jul 08, 2025

Who will insure the future 1 trillion economy?

The insurance company will rise to the task once restructuring/regulations/ethics and controls become right and the overall economy starts to make sense.

The industry is still not big enough. Can a baby look after an adult?

8 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:56am On Jul 08, 2025

megawealth01:
Just for the RECORDS

The rationale for those who have years on their side to own a million units of any “cheap” stock with future potential. The value could well be in millions/billions of Naira in many years to come.

A ten-year future perspective oftentimes helps. Just be sure to tick the boxes, good price, good prospects, …..buy a million units or accumulate to a million. Relax and lock emotions from occasional rough sea volatility and sail to wealth.

Gems are not so easy to find, not as sand, but once you see one, weigh the risks, and lock in.

12 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:05pm On Jul 07, 2025

Common Sense Target for Mutual Benefits N2.16. Still 50% upside from current price. Best to buy below N1.50.

0.54 x 4 = N2.16

Range N2.16-2.70

Still do your due diligence.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:24pm On Jul 04, 2025

Ignorance is loud

Another unforgettable saying.…

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:59am On Jul 03, 2025

Streetinvestor…You again? Lol 😆. See below the earlier post. I salute your tenacity.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:30am On Jul 03, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
Leave this hope anthem when corruption is the order of the day.
I know about the take over in 2019.
I want answer on why telluria farm Ltd which was doing well,making revenue and was already producing FFB before joining ellahlakes stopped producing revenue after the take over. The records showed that telluria already had matured palm farm. I know ellahlakes was an insolvent fish farm.

Thrn on another note you said you buy strategy in the past has always related to eps multiple by 4 x4.why is it not being the case for ellahlakes. Abi the it is reserved for only some company. You do call it common sense strategy. Have the strategy been dustbined so that we know now.This could help us understand the word prejudice better in relation to common sense strategy

Thank you Streetinvestor sir, I did earlier mention in one of my posts that Ella Lakes was not based on Common Sense. I will re post it if only for the purpose of giving flesh to this discourse. You are free to audit the Common Sense strategy . What has been the failure rate?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:26pm On Jul 02, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
Lwkd.Abeg which business be this one.Is it classified as PLC too.Money way ogas they take settle him boys this days for onitsha. Abi na ellahlakes. If yes, so the company don reach 30 yrs in existence .
I come in peace

Ella Lakes is just 5 years old under this new management, a year plus of which was under Covid. The old Ella was insolvent till taken over by young brains that share the belief that something good could come out of Nigeria. These brilliant ones should be celebrated. Had it not been for this lifeline, those who had invested in the company would have lost all. Chuka Mordi has all it takes to turn Ella Lakes into the pride of Nigerians. I only wish he would be less economical with information. NIGERIA can be better. N250 billion will not only lift Ella Lakes but lift Nigeria if used to develop the land banks and their special agric processing zones. It's a noble project. May she succeed with all our support.

From our National Anthem….

O God of all creation,
Grant this our one request,
Help us to build a nation
Where no man is oppressed
And so with peace and plenty
Nigeria may be blessed.

Amen.

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:36pm On Jul 02, 2025

“Prejudice is hard to hide even when adorned with “knowledge “

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:59pm On Jul 02, 2025

megawealth01:
My 15th pick for 2025 is DAAR COMMUNICATIONS. Enter with PATIENT FUNDS

When entering penny stocks as risky as DAAR please use FUNDS not significant...

DYOR

🤔

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:08am On Jun 24, 2025

pluto09:
What is the 321 for? The 321 you added to eps of 262.

Previous loss Q1 on an x axis negative to positive

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:13pm On Jun 23, 2025

GeeKudi:
It's a life lesson for me. I sold NAHCO too early. It has been difficult to get back in as earlier planned.

For stocks that have significant multiple insider purchases, never sell at any price less than x150% of the average of their recent purchases. For NAHCO, this translates to approximately (79.58+75+75.86) /3=N115.22.…150% applied

This is based on the premise that it has to be good and better than the fixed income.

May help next time.

You will discover some interesting figures with BUA cement despite all its volatility.

4 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:32pm On Jun 23, 2025

Common Sense Target for Cadbury N69.96-93.28
I applied a 75% penalty because of the huge Retained loss. Target probably into 2026 Q1 especially if considering N93.28
Please do your research. Purely based on the current trajectory if maintained or surpassed. Not likely to turn the corner to positive till Q2 2026. Now is the front-row seat I guess. Current price N39.25

10 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:51pm On Jun 23, 2025

unite4real:
If GTL is the problem and not WEMA, so i will advice you keep your wema. Sell on or before qualification dates, then re-enter after markdown.

Anytime you want to cash out, you can sell and the proceed of your sales has nothing to do with GTL.

This is what i would do

Noted. Thank you. Mostly unclaimed/new dividends. Wema Bank was an interesting case with a mouth watering Rights offer juxtaposed close to dividends and presenting value all the way till date, making the above strategy a bit more challenging.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:43pm On Jun 23, 2025

I may have to sell off my entire holdings in Wema Bank and anything to do with GTL. The stress from GTL is too much to bear.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:22pm On Jun 21, 2025

Locotrader:
Cileasing is not a low revenue company.They have their shareholders in mind hence they depend on leveraging issueing commercial papers than raising funds via right issue or private placement.

Judging by the last result which is unaudited 2024,they made a revenue of 37B which is almost 100% from the prior year.
They would have make a good profit if not redemption of commercial paper they issued sometime in 2024.I still believe they can still pay dividend if they want even if it is 5kobo to shareholders.

The company assets has risen to 113B in 2024.The 2 foreign subsidiaries are positioned to make money in the leasing and marine industries.In Nigeria,the presidents CNG initiatives are looking favourable to them because of the sector they operate.

I am anticipating a 100% revenue increase for CIleasing and a good profit margin in Q1 2025 which is about to be released.

Cileasing is not a low revenue company and I also believe their profit margins will increase in all the quarters in 2025.Economy is improving.Multinarional companies depend on leasing than outright .In the leasing industry in Nigeria, Cileasing is number one.Leasing and marine industries contributed immensely to the growth of Nigerian economy in Q1 2025.More are to be seen as the year advances

Pa Emma will tell you more about CiLeasing from the 1990s. What of the huge Eliminations in their last final FS and the significant drop in Group earnings? Lets see their Q1results first. I wish them well.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:17pm On Jun 21, 2025

Locotrader:
Oga why you dey write thesis for practical things?
Why you dey compare rats with rabbits?
In as much as I believe Ellah is a growth stock,plenty things needs to be done

Why did they choose the option of diluting shares when they can sell commercial papers?
Did others start by diluting shares?
Check the outstanding shares of okomu and presco and check that of Ellah.Cant you see they are not in the same league?

My problem now is Ellah's latest results is not good,what prompted the rapid rise in price?
When the audited result is announced in the next few months,this same share price will nose dive.
They should do well and sell commercial papers. This is the only news I will appreciate than doing right issue or private placement/ public offer.

I have to thank Ellah for rewarding me to where I think I can stop until I see the next line of action which must be a positive one that can impact on the top and bottom lines.

Sir, there are many types of CEOs, the smart ones and the dumb ones. What if…. Just what if in the future the shares are reverse stock split? Would your opinion change sir? That's what could happen once they become profitable. Commercial papers are not free sir. They come with interest. Salt and pepper are not the only seasoning in the market…..deep thinkers will always go further.

I appreciate your response in English. Made rebuttal a lot easier. Thank you 🙏

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:15pm On Jun 20, 2025

Locotrader:
Peter,Loco made N7+ million in Ellah.I am done with it for now.
I will be interested to continue when I see the price at N10.
When a company wants to raise money to continue in operations,no Jupiter will block their way.They need to push the price to their desired junction in order to offer the right issue or whatever deems fit to them.

Ellah is a serious trap for now

Countries also raise money to continue operations. Nothing wrong in raising capital as long as it's put to productive use. The stock markets exist not just that we can make money, but that the companies too can raise funds and economies to grow. Little wonder a country’s GDP can track the stock market and vice versa. We as investors contribute to this growth by buying a stake in the companies we hold. It's not gambling as someone once put it, it’s we helping companies with good models to flourish and the sick ones that they are exposed. The stock markets are a beautiful mix of common sense, knowledge, fear, and greed. Often its like a phatomine and we all need to sieve through it all. Time only tells which side of the spectrum at any point in time, an investor/trader has fallen. Except those that are privileged to have insider information, the rest must sweat it out through due dilligenge backed by research.
A Billion Naira holding in Presco today, could well have been an investment of a few Millions years back. Our prayer, May God grant us life to reap the fruits of our investments; for with time, many will become Billionaires through the Ngx.
May we all prosper.

23 Likes 4 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:41pm On Jun 20, 2025

aj8:
Betaglass Common Sense Target now N266.56

Betaglass has hit the target. Hold for now.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:42am On May 23, 2025

Amaa2019:
Has anyone gotten his wema bank dividend?

I have not yet. Maybe a few more days. I plan to give them till Wednesday week before I initiate correspondence.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:29am On May 12, 2025

I am invested in Ella Lakes. I have confidence in the company. I believe in the vision and believe that the management has all it takes to deliver on the vision. How I wish more Nigerians would think more like them and Dangote; Invest to solve a need. And the need here is clear. The stock market was created for companies like this… creating a platform to raise capital and reward hard work. The last few years have been challenging for even the Blue Chips. “Green chip” Ella is weathering all the storms and will excel. That FPF is already available is heartwarming…and just that the mill is not ready yet but is still ‘work in progress’. Once the mill is running, the price will shoot to 10. That will happen soon. The team cannot fail. They have brilliant minds. And, Chuka is one of Nigeria’s best minds. The land bank is massive…from the audit report… and should provide some comfort for long-term investors. This stock is not for trading. Sink in only funds you won't need for the next few years. Those in Ella Lake, stick in there. Time will reward. Everyone has to be passionate about something.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:59pm On May 09, 2025

ojeysky:
You gerrit, don't want to hold that much funds for long term on Ellah again. I also don't like that they've not released their Q1 up till now and no news about their activities so far. Especially the factory they said will start at Q1

I am still in with my original 75% stake, maybe the interesting part will recover my 10% loss and then continue to move with una

Their year end changed. Adopted at the last AGM.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:48pm On May 09, 2025

crownprince2017:
When people buy things without reasons, you are bound to sell at loss without reason.

Another quotable quote “ When people buy things without reasons, you are bound to sell at loss without reason“

Crownprince2017

No ill intended

2 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:21pm On May 09, 2025

ojeysky:
Reduced my stake by 25% on Ellahlakes today @ about 10% loss. We moved

Just when it’s about getting interesting.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:57am On May 09, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
Oga are you sure.Are u saying people whr ready to buy wema at #9 above the right price. How much is wema on the floor

Unless an error from the NGX my brother.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:29am On May 09, 2025

faoogoke:
My broker sold my WEMA rights and the account statement he gave shocked me to the marrow.
Please gurus in the house is this statement true.

08-May-2025 05-May-2025 Stock Sale: 500 RR25WEMA @NGN1.05 for A/C 49286 N510.09
08-May-2025 05-May-2025 Stock Sale: 214,166 RR25WEMA @NGN1.00 for A/C 49286 N209,832.87

E gba mi o!

Depends on when exactly they sold. Initial started at 0.50 and as of yesterday sold at above N9.0. Rights are sold based on perceived market trajectory. It’s not a gift offering. It might have been best if you gave a limiting price. It’s unfortunate as you could have gotten more.

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