₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
The APC governors in Imo, Ebonyi, Cross Rivers also failed to deliver Tinubu in the East. Nothing much will change in 2027. Why then are you all fixated with governors? The kind of rigging that will enable Tinubu get votes in these states will have to be brazen and will involve blood shed. None of these governors will be willing to do that for Tinubu. For Wike, it was a matter of survival because he knew what was coming. Tinibu was popular in the North in 2023 but his popularity has tanked. Where then is his pathway to victory? If the Southsouth has not flipped, the middlebelt has also not flipped.

Where then is Atiku's pathway

[quote author=AMINDA post=140802910]Why did PDP structure not make Atiku win Delta? Okowa was an incumbent PDP governor and vice presidential candidate. It will be very naive to think the PDP "structure" will automatically be transferred to Tinubu in terms of support just because the governors made an unpopular defection, having been falsely assured that there will be no opposition? Why do you think the governors are mad at Wike and silently at Tinubu? Their re-election chances have become harder in the APC. Tinubu didn't win Rivers. We all know what happened. Not all the governors will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu. Okowa didn't do so despite being a vice presidential candidate.

This happened in Warri, Delta yesterday. Tinubu is highly unpopular across the Southsouth and the Southeast and his much talked about in-road in the middlebelt may be overrated.

Youths in Warri protest after they were allegedly asked to wear branded Tinubu shirt pic.twitter.com/QV9DB01urg

— YabaLeftOnline (@yabaleftonline) October 1, 2026

like Benin, calabar, uyo and all urban areas of the south are obidients dominated. Obi won there 2023 so it is expected. Most of the PDP structures especially the wike controlled are now with APC.
Okowa didn't win because he underestimated Obi popularity but he delivered 25%. You can't deliver everywhere. Not every governor can deliver their states. Like you said, not all governors can stake their neck but those that will stake will be enough.
Tinubu doesn't need to be popular to win or get votes. Atiku is non existent in SS and SE.

Penguin2:
I’m not disputing that he got over 500k votes in Lagos too. But after Lagos, Kano is the next place he saw that much volume of votes.

Now, Obi is going to inherit Kwankwaso’s over 900k votes which is enough to cancel all the votes Tinubu will get in SE and SS.

So, you see, Peter Obi has made the most inroads into untraditional territories of the 3.

Let’s not even talk about Atiku that has been confined to Northeast and Northwest.

That is the mistake you are making. Obi will not inherit that 900k votes. It is a fact that many kwankwasiyya dislike Obi. We have seen several news of them rejecting and decamping because of Obi. I believe you saw the banner of them campaigning without obi pix meaning obi is Haram. If obi is to win Kano, it will be very narrow

naija1stnigar:
don't mind the fool, something that we all saw live at PTI today. I just dey enter orerokpe now self.

That is Sheriff villa

Penguin2:
Tinubu got over 500k votes from Kano in 2023 and you say it’s not his domain?

Which other state gave him more in Nigeria as a whole?

Did he win Kano? If it is domain, what of kwankwaso? Tinubu also got over 500k in Lagos?

AMINDA:
Impossible. It can't be Warri. Tinubu lackeys told us the entire Southsouth and middlebelt is in the bag for Tinubu.

"It's A.I" - Akpakomiza2

Delta is obi's domain. Tinubu will bury Atiku here

Chachalogo:
Can you tell us how Tinubu will pool more votes than Atiku in the north come 2027?

Same way in 2023 by winning NC and drawing core North

gadogado:
Assuming everyone in the south votes for Tinubu, even with peter Obi running. The north west makes up 24% of the votes!

I agree but turnout will be low, atiku will lose Kano and north central

AMINDA:
Chief amongst them is the governor of his own adopted state whom Tinubu's lackeys accuse of working against Tinubu in 2023. After the Fubara and Wike debacle, the governors have all grown wary of Tinubu and will lose nothing if Tinubu fails to return re-elected. It's not a coincidence how he has always managed to fall out with his successors. He is too overbearing. From Fashola, to Aregbesola, to Ambode, to Osinbajo, to Sanwo-olu. Gbajabiamila only managed to escape by the whisker but the coast is still not clear as he was denied his gubernatorial aspiration and is only COS in name currently, having been displaced by Muri Okunola. He always puts the betrayal tag on them just so he can continue to exercise absolute control while painting others as the villain.

Dele momodu is now a governor I guess

AMINDA:
The making of the Nigerian Paul Biya. If they have to resort to this in the VP's own homestate, it shows how unpopular Tinubu has become. How many people are they going to arrest?

Another ADC leader Hon Sanusi Mai kyame decamped to APC in sokoto

Chachalogo:
The kind of protest votes Atiku will receive in the north eh... Let me not talk.

It will not be enough to defeat Tinubu

Penguin2:
To the end that whatever inroads Tinubu is celebrating to have made into Obi’s traditional voting bloc, Obi has made inroads elsewhere to balance and even surpass it.

Obi hasn't made any inroad apart from Kano which isn't Tinubu's domain

AMINDA:
This is not the first aide that Barau will be sacking for anti-party, by the way. He may eventually sack his whole cabinet.

Ganduje sacked several sides in 2023 that betrayed him for kwankwaso. How did it end? You are a political novice. Purge the enemies in your ADC first

AMINDA:
Atiku does not exist in Kano, but the topic is about Barau having to sack his aide for supporting Atiku. Whatever floats your boat. You are at liberty to continue to tickle yourself. Happiness is free.

You are the one disturbing all the threads with anti Tinubu messages to tickle your self to camouflage the pain of a looming Atiku defeat. The topic is about barau but you mischievously introduced Atiku, are you forgetting? How does it tally? Nothing concern atiku with kano

AMINDA:
APC is getting desperate. Their only strategy appears to be splurging money on every nomenclature and their dog in order to pose for photo-ops as evidence of the party's popularity. The latest embarrassment was going to scout for previous ADC candidates who contested elections before the party was adopted as the coalition vehicle and planting the news about the defection of "ADC candidates". Desperation.

But your ADC is moving about with its vanguard through APC campaigns and arranging video shops to paint a fake picture of rejection. Is Umar sale that defected in sokoto also fake?

AMINDA:
How many people will they eventually sack? Barau himself is a closet supporter of Atiku after Tinubu scuttled his gubernatorial ambition just to receive Kwankwaso's in-law, Abba Kabir, into the APC. It's not the ones who are openly supporting Atiku they should be wary of. It's the closet supporters. This Rainbow Coalition must go round!

All the closet supporters where revealed in 2023. No normal politician will support Atiku over tinubu. Tinubu didn't scuttle his Guber ambition, it is the turn of Kano south. By 2035, it will be the turn of Kano north and Barau won't have any challenger.
By the way, atiku does not exist in Kano. In terms of loyallists, atiku have no loyallists as compared to obi and Tinubu. Those hanging around him are just economic supporters...I haven't even mentioned several ADC members still loyal to the Bala camp

thatigboman:
no wahala. Temi is the most entertaining and she will win. Sunday is not far.
Flora will go far Sha because neche and nomy people are voting her. But im voting temi because she has been so entertaining. The best.

Is it not obvious Aikou is winning oga

slivertongue:
APC and ADC will Gombe. I suspect adc will win

In presidential not Guber. Gwamna is the next governor.

Penguin2:
Whether he wins it by just one vote or even loses it, you agree that the votes he will garner will cancel out the votes that Tinubu will get in Southeast and Southsouth, abi?

To what end

thatigboman:
Temi ke? Temi the winner of the show!!!

Aikou is winning

clarocuzioo:
What the north is cooking for Tinubu in 2027 is unprecedented. There's a reason they are seriously lobbying south east politicians against what he did in 2023.

Why is ADC always the ones posting it

FSBoperator:
Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa are majority Christian.

Bornu is 50:50.

Only Yobe is majority Muslim but there is still a significant Christian population.

NE is not homogenous as the NW when it comes to religion and tribes.

The reason Christians don't get positions is because they are divided more along tribal considerations. The Muslims, are however more united along religious lines.

Borno is 80 20 like Yobe. How many christians do you meet in Borno

greatiyk4u:
Borno and yobe were forced and manipulated into joining Islam for a reason I won't discuss here.... Originally Bura people of Borno state are traditional worshippers until lately.....just check out the section of Borno and Adamawa hit by Boko haram and understand what I mean....I lived in Biu, Yadi buni and Maiduguri to understand what i mean
Gombe is 60-40 Muslim to Christians while Adamawa is 65% Christians just that they are powerless

You are very funny and mischievous. Borno and Yobe where all in kanemi Borno empire. They where Muslims even before the Dan fodio jihad sir. Most Christians where also traditionalists before converting to Christianity.
I know southern Borno has a lot of Christians but Borno as a whole is Muslim dominated same as Yobe. Gombe north is Muslim dominated, Gombe central is Muslim dominated. Only Gombe south has sizeable christians. I can agree Adamawa and Taraba are Christian dominated but north east as a whole is a Muslim enclave

AMINDA:
Allow! They think Rainbow Coalition is only limited to Rivers.

They will mobilize extra votes

greatiyk4u:
One secret is that there are slightly more Christians in North East than Muslims but the Muslims are more powerful, hence, a reason they are oppressing them

Not true. Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe are Muslim dominated. Adamawa is 50 50. Only Taraba has slightly more christians. You are dead wrong

MichaelSokoto:
Only hi-neck server tempering can guarantee a Tinubu victory and u know it!
So stop whyning urself!

Rigging or no rigging, nothing for obi

MrSly:
Tinubu will loose the election.

He will bury obingo in core north

U09ce:
I don't foresee that. Benue and Nasarawa will go to Obi, Niger will sway to Atiku

Tinubu won benue in 2023 and came close 2nd in NASARAWA. Ortom that was supporting obi is now supporting Tinubu. No how Tinubu won't do well in both states

U09ce:
He can't get 25% in the others

So he won't get in Benue, nasarawa, niger

Hueyreckless0007:
I highly doubt that. Northerner are really pissed off with his administration

Core northerners

U09ce:
Kaduna
Borno
Kwara
Kogi

These are the only ones I'm 80% sure

What of the others

Gunayo:
If the election is devoid of rigging, Tinubu will only win South west. He cannot win any south south state not to talk of south east. Forget Woke ranting. He is only relying on rigging and thuggery which might fail him. In general He will win by rigging and there will be chaos most especially in the North. Things will normalise after some days of unrest.

He doesn't need to win SS and north, just significant votes