₦airaland Forum

pasol4real:
And what difference will that make? Will it stop him from losing all of the south come 2027?

Yes

fergie001:
Maybe not now, and not to APC.

Yes but he will after his re election.

NgeneUkwenu:
Honestly, I see only Anambra, Abia and Oyo states remaining in the opposition in the South..

Watch out for Bayelsa, Rivers and Enugu states in few weeks time.

Tinubu will clear Oyo. Soludo will suppress obi votes. Bayelsa will join APC

fergie001:
Bayelsa is done.
Enugu is negotiating terms and conditions.

Rivers is not in the equation!
Rivers is not heading APC but Fubara is lame-duck now.
His hands, legs, head, brain is already tied.

Taraba is been considered.

I am tired sef. Tinubu doesn't want to come to Abia to honour the ultimate defection. To fight Jagaban in the South now is like boxing a 911 truck.

They are APC members already.

Otti will not decamp, he doesn't need to.

fergie001:
You don't seem to get what's going on.

These men are the advance party. That June was when Gov Adeleke's sign-on fee was paid. Can't you see the letters were written by same person?

It's already a done deal.

Tinubu wants at least 13/17 States from the South. He wants a clean sweep here!

He can't get a clean sweep from the south. Highest is 11/17 from the south

fergie001:
If I get bullion van, I go ginger pass Wike sef

It's the reality. Anything that separates an Atiku and Obi ticket is a 90% for Tinubu. They are not sure they will beat him if they are together but it's certain they will both lose if they go differently.

Obi is not doing any Primary thing with Atiku, he will most likely run under Nenadi-Usman's LP.

Or Apga or form another party. It is better Atiku steps down

fergie001:
Sowumi intends to cash out himself.

Tinubu's re-election is 50% done. We will understand more after the bye-elections.

Exactly. Results from the north will tell us the directions in which core north will vote

Duplex90:
Tinubu is using the death to seek sympathy from the north lol. I saw this since the very day the death was announced. Its a good thing yusuf is not really playing to his gallery and camera optics. Bat major nightmare now is the north and thats why he is picking someone else as a running mate.
Tinubu is even praying peter obi gets the presidential ticket coz if waziri gets that ticket with obi as vp he will not only loose but be disgraced out of office.

They both go to separate party to run tinubu wins. The only option obi has is to run under waziri coz the north will never accept a statesman like waziri as vp and obi is too daft to be a president. I might be too blunt but its the truth!!
The only person giving tinubu sleepless nights and panic is waziri, he is less bothered about obi coz everyone now understands that obi is a dunce who can only work under supervision(vp).

Tinubu will humiliate Atiku again

Dogalmighty17:
Pretty normal thing worldwide. In the US for example, if Laura Loomer or Stephen Miller aren't backing what you want Trump to do, forget it. Loomer got Trump to fire all the staff in the office of the NSA for example. Not even his Chief of staff, Susie Wiles has as much influence as Loomer and Miller do.

Stephen Miller, that self-hating Jew and deputy chief of staff, openly and directly gives orders that counter Trump. Miller is behind the extremist anti-immigration drive of ICE lately. The head of the DHS has to do what he says or she gets kicked to the curb.

In the Biden white house, James Clyburn though not officially a staff, had such great influence on Biden that most democrats had to go through him to get Bidens ear.

Cabals are normal worldwide. The unfortunate thing is that the cabals in Nigeria only work for evil.

What of Suzie wiles

AMINDA:
The desperation and panic is now palpable. Arrogance have gone out the window now that the handwriting can be clearly seen on the wall. Tinubu is now hopping from one Northern state to another and has suddenly remembered the North for yet another elitist appointment saddled with cronyism. What happened to the Lagos boys? Unfortunately, it's a little too late. Where are the Southern appointees? Yet another strategic mistake. Focus on the South Tinubu, the North is gone!

Sharap. Tinubu will humiliate Atiku

Penguin2:
This one is an obvious Tinubu lackey. No wonder ACF booted him out of the Secretary Position.

Tinubu supporters can excite themselves with whatever he’s saying.

You people should continue to lie to yourselves.

In 2031, you will still say APC will win. It is now a seasonal thing which is destroying your credibility. Don't you have shame?
At least Tinubu has northern lackeys which means a lot in the north are with him

Eriokanmi:
Oh, its not brutal truth that, despite spending so much on campaigns, the samefaith ticket arrangee, inducement of voters in the north, tinubu still couldn't pull the northern vote convincingly? Dey play. I just pray atiku steps down and Obi is supported for the ticket cos atiku will lose again, should he come out. North can't rescue him as south must complete 8 years whether they like it or not. Elrufai will do the needed little job in the north cos that's all obi needs to win convincingly even if the inec seeks to favour tinubu same way they did in.2023, the effect won't be much felt. All odds are against tinubu right now cos ahead of the 2023 elections, some people saw him.as Mr magician and the older architect of lagos as she had claimed so, it won't be business as usual.

The question all of you guys should be asking is, why is there so much noise about Obi and not atiku and others? Think about it.

El rufai couldn't deliver kaduna for Tinubu, which north will he secure? Lol. Look at what hatred can force one to say. Tinubu will still be here in 2031 and you will still push another bitter permutations

This is the brutal truth cc penguin, Fergie,svoboda,Aminda

AMINDA:
PDP is now a carcass. Wike is the biggest loser in all of these because he's now without a platform and will be too ashamed to decamp to APC.

In their desperation to run unopposed, APC destroyed all opposition parties thereby making sure that Obi could no longer run as a third force nor Atiku under the platform of PDP. This has turned out to be a strategic mistake. They never saw the coalition coming. Notwithstanding, Seyi Makinde must contest under the PDP in 2027.

What is monodu's electoral influence

Racoon:
The Buhari led CPC block have already left the APC.

Majority are still in APC

Penguin2:
They vote Obi to find out.

But Tinubu can no longer hoodwink them because he’s had 4 years to protect them but failed.

What will his excuse be?

They won't obi sir. Even Dalung who is in ADC clearly said Tinubu has won over the northern Christians and he was pained about it.

Penguin2:
And are they protected from jihadists now with the killings going on unabated almost on a daily basis?

Will it die down under obi or atiku

Penguin2:
Thank you at least for accepting the obvious truth that Obi will still win Edo and Delta.

It is not about winning states but margin. Obi will win bendel and SE with reduced margins while Tinubu will take SW and NC with bigger margins

Penguin2:
So, in the depth of your heart now, you believe Northern Christians (Benue, Plateau, Southern Kaduna, Southern Bauchi, Southern Gombe, etc) will go to the polls in 2027 and choose Tinubu over Obi?

Yes. The MM ticket fears has died down, Tinubu has showered them with heavy patronage. An average northern Christian just wants development and to be protected from jihadists. The only place that will be tough is plateau but muftwang is pro Tinubu

Svoboda:
You're anticipating a 3 horse race.

If the coalition is serious, it should be Atikus/obi. A done deal.

Yes, I see obi contesting alone. But in case they pair, tinubu will take SS and northwest with a little more push. At least half of obidients will abandon obi while a lot of core northerners will leave Atiku. Sheikh Jingir stated the minds of radicals

AMINDA:
What's your own source that he didn't? He remains the first and only governor to do it and to do it twice!

Oga, El rufai got 900k, Ashiru kudan got 700k. Amechi got it twice, Kwankwaso twice and even shekarau

AMINDA:
Okay, we hear you. Elrufai is a featherweight politician, just like Aregbesola and every other politician in the ADC. The only heavyweights are the ones decamping to APC. Time is a gentleman. Elrufai is the only gubernatorial candidate in the nation’s history to have won his election with over a million votes and he did it twice. Make of that what you will.

That he couldn't deliver Tinubu in Kaduna is because Tinubu was grossly unpopular. Same as how Sanwo-olu won convincingly but failed to deliver Tinubu in Lagos.

El rufai didn't get up to a million in 2019 sir. How come tinubu won Jigawa and zamfara and came close in Katsina, kebbi, sokoto ?

Svoboda:
The south won't divide?

It will but Atiku will fail woefully. He will get a distant third. Tinubu already has SW and NC already and might likely get SS. Even if tinubu loses north, he will come a close second meeting the spread alongside plurality if votes.

Penguin2:
Now, that’s exactly my point.

I’m not rejoicing over Baba Oyegun because of the votes he will deliver for Obi. Obi alone can attract all the votes he needs.

My gladness is that with Baba Oyegun and his men, Okpebholo won’t be able to pull off the Rivers template in Edo in 2027.

You are missing the point. Oyegun can do nothing for it against, he is totally powerless. Edo just like delta voters are very independent minded and loud. The Rivers formula cannot work there except in delta south and Edo north. There is a reason why these two states voted obi massively. But I can assure you that while obi will win Edo, it will be much closer. Same in delta

Penguin2:
You and I know that the masses of the north rarely decide on their own. The powerbrokers of the north decide and direct them where to vote.

Now, the question is, will the powerbrokers of the north stand with Tinubu in 2027?

Or the powerbrokers are now useless?

Or you think the masses of the north will decide on their own in 2027? And they will decide to vote Tinubu?

Some voters esp in North central and Christian core north are independent minded and Tinubu has swayed them. Most of the power brokers up north are with Tinubu sir. Just like in 2023, the north is divided. The power brokers know the turn of the north is 2031. Again, most of those northern politicians want to be president and atiku is on their path so why support him?

Svoboda:
So, tinubus theatrics were for political expediency and not because he wanted to really honor President Buhari? They certainly can see through that.

It is that so called gullibility that'd work in atikus favour. You don't expect them to repeat the same mistake.

No matter what happens sir, the north will divide

Penguin2:
Atiku can never sweep the north?

You think the dynamics at play are still the same as 2023?

So you think with the mass hunger in the north, they will still thumbprint for Tinubu in 2027?

Okay na! Let’s wait

They will sir. The north don't vote based on competence when it comes to presidency, it is always about ethnicity and religion and personality. The hunger started under buhari yet they voted him massively. Has Atiku done anything in his private capacity to salvage northern hunger among the Talakawa? You think they don't know.
The dynamics hasn't changed. Infact, Tinubu can even rig out Atiku up north without consequences. Even if Atiku miraculously sweeps the north, he will fail woefully down south.
2031, you will still come here to drum of how APC will lose

Penguin2:
I will ask you the question I asked Legendhero.

If I asked you to tell me who won votes for Obi in all the states he won, can you tell me?

Obi own is a different case, he has organic followers unlike Atiku and oyegun. Oyegun is a political nonentity

Svoboda:
Northerners aren't half witted people. They can see through the facade. Meanwhile, as Tinubu was receiving Buharis body, his spokesman was deleting an offensive post.

His appointees were busy subtly blasting Buhari and blaming him for everything bad they encountered in their government.

Majority are gullible and unenlightened sir. They are captivated by Tinubu's moves. They don't like Atiku either. The north will be divided

happney65:
Buhari's death is Tinubu's loss and that is the fact.

The truth of the matter is,those Buhari inner circle who find it hard to openly support Atiku will do now that Buhari is no more. Maybe they know Buhari is about leaving when they annonced their so called coaliation.

Did you see Atiku,El rufai and Tambuwal being hailed today in Daura? And Tinubu didnt get the same reception even when he was there.

There goes your answer. 2027 is the oppostion to lose of they put their house in order. And even as an Obident,the only ticket that can beat Tinubu is an Atiku/Obi ticket because Obi alone CANNOT beat Tinubu. It is the combination of both that can beat Tinubu

Atiku, El rufai and Tambuwal have always been hailed yet they struggle to deliver especially the latter so rest.
In 2023, buhari body language clearly showed he was against Tinubu. He grudgingly and reluctantly endorsed Tinubu at the last minute. In 2027, it is possible that he would have remained neutral or endorsed the opposition so his death is not a blow
The mighty burial Tinubu gave him today has earned the admiration of many ardent buharists. Tinubu has the support of close family members like Aisha, Yusuf etc and this would buy more votes. Shettima is even more closer to buhari than El rufai

Penguin2:
Divided between who and who?

Tinubu should pray Obi gets the ADC ticket. Because if Atiku gets it, then it’s a clean sweep of the entire north.

And even if Obi gets it, Tinubu will still struggle in the north except Atiku, Elrufai, et al, are not sincere about their support.

Divided between Tinubu, Atiku and any northerner PDP fields and kwankwaso if he contests. Oga, I thought by now you should know that Atiku can never sweep the north. 2023 answered all your questions. A northerner that loses the north to a southerner is useless sir. Atiku can win the north but never convincingly. He doesn't have the traits, capacity, popularity, personnel or machinery to do it. This is not something we should be arguing about sir.
Tinubu will always massacre obi in the north sir. Obi cannot even win NC, is it core north he can do well? Atiku and El rufai can deliver themselves, how will they deliver obi?
2027 is a free for all and Tinubu has the advantage whether you accept it or not