₦airaland Forum

SavvyLanre:
@aktopgun,  see my own picture o,

omo savvy, u too much.

nice pictorial as well. where did u get this picture abeg, make i check it out. the trendline bounce is yet another confirmation. thanks

u are correct. it is trending negative

Omoba3:
Topgun: I read that the MACD histogram gives a better indication, and going by what I see its trending negative, please set me str8.

for red star?

Omoba3:
Topgun: Does it work for you that I post the charts that I'm interested in and you provide the commentary with your replies? I have Betaglass, Dunlop, Livestock, Ikeja Hotels (already posted earlier) and  ABC.

What sayest thou?

no worries jare, any way is fine. i always looka t the charts myself either way. off to bed now.

btw, on DSR the trend appears to have passed somewhat with today's gain but there is still some gain to be had  believe, for those who do dangerous things in the market eg CICO  

caveats apply to those it needs to apply to

this is the answer i was looking for, what do u think?

@savvylanre

make i post the chart for u, i dey come, 2 minutes

@omoba

on transcorp, i don talk am say dat one na Ndid herself dey control am  

but lets say for arguents sake it is one that obeys TA then it is set to go down. Hanging man after uptrend, not cool. interestingly though, the other indicators are quite positive u know, althugh the MACD nad the slow stochastic are beginning to show signs of leveling out

SavvyLanre:
i don ansa now, to d level wey i sabi

my question was on DSR man. see what u think

@omoba

on redstar, i dont like spinning tops at the resistance area jare. it would suggest a reversal of sorts to the uptrend, ie buyers not so sure they want to go any higher with this one.

all the other indicators are trending up as u said but i tend to finalise with the candles cuz they have one element other indicators don't, market psychology.

of course u know i could be completely wrong  

SavvyLanre:
Kai - na who fit borrow me moni,  this bank shares dey too sweet - Fide, Ubea and Ocea, 
I am sure the fundals, are just packing, 

Meanwhile, i no understand that UBA though,  Even after Oga Pumping talk, i no gree sell o - i love fundalmentally good stocks too much to risk it for anything else. So i sold Ubn,  (and Baba Wanaj0 - never pay my school fees )

u dey dodge my question abi.

Omoba3:
Togun: I hail o. Would the ansa have anything to do with the low volume traded and the fact that it closed closer to the high of the day?

:Dwassup.

nope

SavvyLanre:
Aktopgun me too i dey look chart for here - see costain still dey defy gravity. But, i no someone if hin talk for here on that stock - gravity must to pull am down. Na who sabi that person? (na my own riddle be that)

ok savvy, look at the chart for DSR tell me what u think

looks like DSR's good results are going to pay off soon, a move in price upwards is coming in the next few days i would suggest

@pumice et roughcut, little test for u guys (pls indulge me, not trying to act like say i be anything special, just a game): pls look at the charts for DSR and say why u think i have made my above comment on a possible coming upward movement in price. it is a good learning exercise i think. cheers guys

i'll give u 2 hints:
a) its less obviuos on the 1yr chart
b) its not in the candles

guess u probably know the answer by now.   . lets see

p.s this is not a recommendation to buy or sell DSR. it is merely for discussion and analytic purposes  

hbrednic:
papa tobe,upon all the loot wey you don grab this year ,
which kin chart by this time?wifey go vex ooh.

i wish man,  i wish  

she don sleep, long day!

i just like to dey look charts, i find them so revealing at times u know.

@naijadr

bigtreat  

oh, so because i no dey house na to turn this place into "thread of a thousand laughs" abi?  

bia, risky et ioma et savvy, if anything happen to my sides na una go pay for the surgery to sew am back o!!!  

nice to see we are all in a brilliant mood. feels like teen spirit again.

so, who wants some anointing, got loads oozing out of my pores  

happy holidays fellas

now to look at some charts, at 1am  

there is trading as far as i know. today is the last day till tuesday next week.

on the NSE releasing this news of some other companies not being on suspension, i think it is really irresponsible at this time when ther's confusion in the market and many people are waking up to the news on capoil and afroil. it will only worsen the confusion.

what is the "etc" they added at the end of the news release about sef.

i am not surprised too much though, i anticipated something like this yesterday. no be naija!

loma:
The guy also owns 40% stake in Premier Paints.

@Windy Wendy- Where is Kola going next   No tell me say you no get crystal ball o!  Just dig like you always do maam!

add tot hee list the furniture and joinery companies he already has in the portfolio. strategic positioning.

blueband:
Aktopgun-You no give me time,

thursday 7pm
friday 10a.m and 7pm

blueband:
Aktopgun,
Abeg carry some candles go make them pray on top o.Especially IEI candle.
BTW where can i find details of the conference?

march 20-21
excel london
one western gateway
royal victoria dock
london e16 1xl

be there or be square  

RoughCut:
Is that the property exhibition? I have been going there every year for about 5-6 years now. Looks like i'm so not going to be there this year

nope, the benny hinn conference. we are partners with him

edwardaigb:
Please could someone help me with the outstanding shares of this insurance companies.
1. Law union and rock.
2. Nem insurance.
3. Oasis
4.Lasaco insurance.
thank you all for anticipated response.

HERE'S WHAT I HAVE

law union- 3.437b
NEM- 6.18B
OASIS- 6.09 (may be higher cuz of oversubscription)
lasaco- 7.404b

thanks to the big man easimoni. u'all see why i advocated for his return!  

RoughCut:
They will suspend the shares of the company from trading before they commence their investigations so everybody go know where them stand. NSE seems to have gone about it the wrong way round. How can a company be under investigation and the share are still  actively being traded

NSE we hail thee!

u hit the nail on the head sir!

the SEC say they are trying to protect investors and continued to watch whilst NSE allowed the ongoing traading in companies under investigation, Only to come out with this on a public holiday when no one can react. NOT COOL!. see panic for the ones still being investigated tomorrow (thats if fellas know whats good for them)

I would love to see the market tomorrow but wont even be any where near a computer till late at night.

an one joining me at the EXCEL CENTRE tomorrow and friday?

@pumping

u got mail.

RoughCut:
You dey inside? That one don pass yawa o that one na real palaver. Full suspension be this no be TS!

dey inside ke!

i don talk am say i no dey do company wey no get history wey i fit follow chronologically bros

aktopgun no dey dis one at all! i just dey exclaim for my fellas wey dey dia for here. omo do u know this could mean serious issues for fellas with money inside o. the report says the companies have been fiuond to be basically non=functional
now for the long drawn out process of fellas trying to get their money out   . i expect counter reports soon sha.
no be naija?

pamit:
breaking news!!!

SEC suspends trading on Afroil, Capital Oil shares
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has suspended Indefinitely trading in shares of Afroil Plc and Capital Oil Plc across the floors of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). A release by SEC's Head of Media, Mr. Lanre Oloyi in Lagos, said that the suspension was a fall-out of the investigation conducted by the Commission on the activities of the two companies. It said that the action was to protect the investing publics and warned stockbrokers to avoid trading in the shares of the companies. SEC questioned what it called "illogical and astronomical rise in the share prices of the companies'' when they were not submitting statutory reports. The Commission said its investigation revealed that during the period of the price growth, the two companies were basically out of business. "The basis for continued trading and rise in the prices of their shares on the NSE no longer exists and the investing public must not be deceived,'' SEC said. The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) recalls that SEC had, on February 14, 2008, said it was conducting investigation into the activities of five companies, accusing some of them of insider trading and price manipulation

, source guardian news

CHIMO!!!!!! YAWA DON GAS O!

hey guys, topgun  here. just like to wish u all a god-filled easter. remember the reason for the holiday as u all lay back on friday morning smiling at ur NSE loot.

the only way this thread will die is if we who all have built it have nothing to say about it. As long as we have something to say about it (as pumping has said, no body fit stop me from posting) then it won't die.

migrating is not an option.

long live stock market tips!!!!!

bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2
bring back fof2

happy holidays.

what i've gleaned so far on shoreline and their investments:

Costain- own roughly 50%
Alumaco- majority shareholder
Nigerian ropes- majority share holder
Premier paints- owns 40%, majority share holder
ABB electricals nigeria- majority share holder
Schlumberger tests and production nigeria -majority share holder.

it strikes me that most of these companies are in that manufacturing and construction supply chain u know

the search continues.

i guess i'll have to wait for costain to slow down before attempting a hijack (roughcut watchout. u will be the only person i will leave alive on this one cuz i have learnt from my last hijack-oceanic, wher i left the airhostess alive and she did a "passenger 57" (ala wesley snipes) on me. wont let that happen again!!  

TO BE FAIR TO THE GUY HE DID SOME SWEET ANALYSIS ON THE SITUATION WITH COSTAIN LATER AND MADE A U-TURN AT THE END.

I AM REALLY BEGINNING TO FEEL THIS SHORELINE COMPANY U KNOW, MUST FIND OUT MORE ABOUT THEM (note to self)


[b]I have to thank you for your outstanding comments. i was forced to go back to the prospectus and while my initial observations about the offer may be valid from a historical perspective, I think we may be looking at one of the biggest turn around stories in corporate Nigeria. At the center of it all is a man called Kolade Karim who would essentially own close to 50% of the this company upon the completion of this recapitalization exercise. Essentially this man through his company Shoreline Energy, took over app. 1billion in debt owed Costain UK (according to te prospectus), and became the beneficial owner of Costain Nigeria. His plan is to convert this debt to equity via the current offer. The rights issue is essentially for Energy shoreline (see page 48 of prospectus). Also note that 12% of the public offer has been allocated to companies controlled by Mr. Karim - Shoreline Energy (6%) and Koda trading (6%). Essentially, I see investing in this offer as a direct bet on the ability of Mr. Karim and management to transform this organization. Their plan according to the prospectus is to acquire companies along the value chain (see page 55). I think this is a necessary step in the right direction in the face of the negetive free cash flow generated by the company. If you take a look at the financial statement, you will notice that cash flow from operations has been negative historically. that can only mean one thing, they don't have much barganing power over their suppliers (above them in the supply chain) and customers (below them in the supply chain). Essentially, they don't get paid by customers before they pay out to suppliers. This is typical of construction companies that don't have long term contracts. What it seems to me that Mr. Karim wants to do in patnership with management and Empire Court Estate (also alloted 6% according to prospectus), is to acquire building material manufacturers (cement??) and real estate firms; thereby gaining access to the whole value chain and basically eliminating the cash flow problems, since the suplier would now be owned by him and would therefore be in a position to offer supply credits. I am sorry for making you read all this story. but back to your point on the price, although there is no ignoring that there would be significant dilution from all these exercise, but if Mr. Karim owns significant number of shares post offer and is unwilling to sell (given his strategic intentions), then its very unlikely, like you rightly postulated that the price post offer, would drop below the current N18. Basically, that is the man that would dictate the price. in short, IT LOOKS LIKE I AM GOING TO MAKE A 360 DEGREE TURN HERE, THIS OFFER MAY JUST BE MUCH BETTER THAN I INITIALLY THOUGHT![/b]

this brought a smile to my face when i read it and i remembered Roughcut and Naijadr. it was written by an investor on another forum in Dec 2007, after he read the Costain prospectus.

I bet he is probably kicking himself now cuz i hardly see the price going down to N13

enjoy ur holidays.

I am not impressed with this offer. I took a look at the prospectus and found that diluted PE ratio for 2008 is as high as 27, although it drops sharply in 2009. Diluted EPS adjusts for (adds) the shares that are currently on sale. I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy in the PO as its evident that there is not going to be a run up in price in the short term given the high 2008 PE. I would consider buying sometime mid to end 2008, when the funds being would have been deployed and should have started generating returns. In otherwords, the stock price should not move that much higher than the PO price of N13 ovr the next 6-12 mnths. I may be a buyer then, not now! Also note that his company has generated negative free cash flow for the past three years. Not my kind of investment!

I guess he didnt see it coming and didnt factor in the big "S" (sentiment) into his analysis. he is now the wiser i guess

cheexy:
Hi Aktopgun,
Thanks for all your contributions here. I have tried to understand technical analysis using candle sticks but i can't seem to find a book to use or a site to go to. I want to learn how to do it by myself. I know you must be tired of shinning candles very often. Please could you recommend a good book or site to go to, I remeber someone attached a zip file earlier but it couldn't open. Thank you for your anticipated response.

try candlestick charting explained by gregory morris
john Murphy's book on TA comes highly recommended as well but i haven't read that one

SavvyLanre:
still illiquid though,  so what exactly do they do, because i have been looking for information on them.

quite right. the thing is, as an institutional investor has now come on board and I didnt hear of them going on TS for any allowance for a core investor i am assuming some fellas have given up their share to the new investor or am i talking rubbish?

if not then the illiquid status may actually worsen.

abi, where are they going to get the shares to allocate to the new investor