₦airaland Forum

IjeBos:
Lol

There are still some inflection points.
Her VP candidate pick
and the Convention which Dems usually do a good job producing.

So, the polls will look different by the end of the month esp. when the post Summer focusing begins.

The polls.

I hate them, I don't trust them. Democrats better keep up the energy and don't get complacent.

Maybe it is just me because I suffer from 2016 PTSD but polls now showing Harris gaining momentum over Trump now has me worried because I remember what happens with polls.

EnlightenedUFO:
Magats don't know that attacking her race is putting off republicans from the cult.
But I love how the dude had a turn around and agrees to support Harris.
Convicted felon trump is a fúcking loser for life.

Same here I initially thought that he was against her.

Amujale:
You're spot on and as such, i have to agree with you in all your determinations above.

Thanks for taking the time to break it down meticulously.

Aha! Now that's cleared up, lets get to working on supporting the soon to be US president, the first of it's kind, Kamala is a go-getter, and you can tell she's locked-in and ready to make history.

Exactly.

IjeBos:
Are you assuming the Jewish population would support the Dem Party more than they did in 2020? If the Jewish support is the same as 2020 the difference is the Muslim Support. In a close election, that matters. But not only that, the Youth vote is increasingly aligned with what is happening in the Middle East

You are not getting it, LGBTQ issues and abortion is already diminishing the Muslim support for Democrats, they opposed Whitmer in 2022 and she still won why? Because she appealed to the center and Jews are a part of the center, the center are a reliable voting bloc than Muslims, Democrats are not going to change their position on the policies Muslims generally are against to appeal to them when you can continue in a position that is already giving you Jewish support. Also Black voters are the people who make the difference in states like Michigan not Muslims, if they come out in November which they will then no need for the Muslim vote.

100,000 people came out to vote uncommitted in Michigan during this years primary. That in itself is a big deal for a primary. Biden won it by 120,000

Ok, Harris will win the general by 20k plus alongside Black and Jewish vote. The center is how you win elections, Muslims in the USA are not a part of the Democratic center but far-left. Ask Tlaib, Omar etc.

US will continue to support Israel but what that support looks like will be different. I think it will revert closer to how Obama dealt with it rather than how Biden has dealt with it. Like when Obama chose not to veto the 2016 UN Israel anti settlement resolution which later passed

Obama was incompetent in foreign policy, I hope Harris follows Biden's way instead, she has to or she will suffer midterm electoral defeats like Obama did, Americans are pro-Israel no matter how loud some people are on Twitter and Al-Jazeera it doesn't change that.

The coalition that won Obama the election was an increase in young voter turnout. Young voters want to see a shift a balanced Israel policy. I think Harris is going to follow that model.

Not all young voters lol, Obama won because he had enough White support that was why he won places like Iowa,Ohio and Indiana and he did so by being moderate. There is a reason why he was not so quick to embrace same-sex marriage. It was Biden who first came out to. He did not win because of unreliable young voters who don't vote, maybe that has changed since Trump but Obama won Black voters overwhelmingly and got huge White support. If young voters helped him which I do not doubt at all they did it in States that do not electorally matter like New York and California the voting demographics in states that made the difference cannot be credited to "young voters" Harris must maintain the two-state solution model which we know will be difficult to achieve thanks to Hamas and October 7th sadly. But she dare not pivot to the left on this issue or she will lose badly. I trust Biden to advice her.

IjeBos:
Even if we were talking strictly election politics, not necessarily true. The Dems may need MI to win, and there are enough Muslims in Michigan to swing that state in a close election. So, if they are planning a path without MI then you have a point.

But, that's not why me or a large percentage of people vote Dem. We vote Dem because Dems do the right thing and try to speak with a moral clarity. And what is happening in the Middle East is not the right thing. What is going on looks too much like an apartheid state with one group of people giving a permanent underclass status. So, the unequivocal support of ISrael, no matter what they do, would cost Dems more than just the Palestinian vote in the end.

What part of Jewish vote will offset any Muslim vote in Michigan do you not understand? They will win Michigan with or without Muslim vote because the Jews and like minded moderates including Blacks make a very significant percent of the state than the Muslims.

The Democrats as are the Republicans will continue to support the State of Israel because an overwhelming majority of Americans are pro-Israel. Noise making on Twitter doesn't change it. As long as the Democrats continue to appear pro-Israel like Biden has with his center-left position on the issue they will win the moderate vote and the independent or moderate voters are what win elections. If supporting Israel will cost Democrats support from leftists they will make up for it with moderates. It is about the numbers.

Nothing is changing America's support for Israel, with Trump in power Gaza will be nuked if Netanyahu remains in charge so there is still a slight difference on the issue among the parties.

casualobserver:
She can’t win. America is heading for an economic slow down just around the time of the elections. As Bill Clinton famously said “it’s the economy stupid”.

She is a luxury candidate, the kind of person you elect in good times. When push comes to shove, the economy will talk and Americans trust Trump over Harris on the economy.

Mark my words. My election prediction record so far is 100%

Plus she is currently alienating Indians by acting black and pissing off blacks for trying to hijeck their identity and paint herself as black.

Kamala Harris will win the election. You don't know jack.

cococandy:
Your Trump doesn’t even know what he stands for.

Anywhere belle face

Lmao.
Whenever a Nigerian mentions why they support Trump because he hates LGBTQ people I always show them this photo.
E get special place for my phone.

IjeBos:
I think he is somewhat to the right of where I think the Dem. party wants to be on this. He's closer to Biden's position than what I think Kamala would be.
Kamala will be on top of the ticket, so to me it doesn't matter much, but I think the Muslim population in Michigan is ready to take a burn it all down stance. (and I know I'm overgeneralizing, but this is from the interviews of Michigan Muslim voters I've heard).
Will it matter? I don't know. I think as the election get closer and people really have to decide to actively make a choice that will put Trump back in power, attitudes may change.

A smart Democrat will make the Jews happy and let the Muslims cry. The Jews have been reliably voting Democratic for decades just like Black people.
The Muslims were not even happy with the party because of the LGBTQ and abortion stuff alongside their support for banning certain books.

The only reason why they vote for Democrats is because they are receptive to Immigrants and Republicans hate them. Bush got the Muslim vote back in the day. They have more in common with Republicans in terms of ideological positions but some don't vote Republicans because they are irrationally Islamophobic.

ObaIgwe1:
In swing states, even the small Arab numbers matter.

I would have suggested Pete Buttigieg; guy is smooth communicator and will take any GOP to the cleaners in any subject debate... But for his orientation, I doubt America is truly ready for it. So while Kamala has to overcome those who are still biased against her race and gender, it will be an overload for her to also have to deal with homophobia.

In my estimate. Shapiro still seem to be the wiser pick, Harris strong empathy for innocent Palestinian loses might help soften those Arabs' stand.

Nope in Swing states the Jewish voters matter more and not the Arab ones. There are more Jews in Michigan than the Arabs in Michigan which the far-left keep screaming about when Whitmer won an election in double digits without the Arab support. Aside from Israel, America is the second country with the highest number of Jews and they reliably vote Democratic, a majority of them do.

Buttigieg adds nothing to that ticket, him and Beshear they bring nothing. Buttigieg didn't do well with Black voters in his 2020 primary, has never won a statewide election and on top of it he is gay. A big liability for a ticket that has a woman on it, not even a White woman but a non-White woman on the ticket. There is a reason why the potential VP picks are all White men. Left to me I wanted Whitmer as VP but she is a woman. The reason is because of the Demographics a White person has to be on the ticket and since a woman is heading it another woman cannot be on the ticket hence why the VP search was narrowed to White men, Republicans will call it DEI. but according to their dead brains it only affects Black people. Pete on the ticket is electoral suicide and Republicans will be bigots. Harris' team knows this that is why I laugh at Democrats or Democratic voters on Twitter mentioning Pete you just know that they have zero idea of politics. If it is about communication which we all agree that Buttigieg is excellent at then she can pick Shapiro, he is good too but Pete cannot be on the ticket. They know this.

I don't even care about the Arabs.

Those people are socially conservative and no different from Republican White Christian nationalists the only reason some don't vote Republican is because the GQP hates them. The Arabs in Dearbon, Michigan did not vote for Whitmer in 2022 she won without them by double digits.

I advice the Democrats to not forsake their reliable liberal Jewish voters who have been a part of the party in decades for Arabs who are no different from Republicans in thinking and sometimes don't bother voting. The party mainstream must never appease the far-left.

IjeBos:
Yeah, given PA, he's probably the "smartest" pick electorally. I did think he was somewhat overzealous with his condemnation of the University presidents and the protests surrounding the Middle East. I want Harris to reimagine our role in the conflict with people open to all perspectives. If he doesn't get picked, I'll assume there were real fears that his pick may cost her Michigan.

He said what any sane person will say about the protest. His stance on the conflict is the normal dem position.
There is now way you win Pennsylvania and lose Michigan that hasn't happened since 1988. The polls show her doing better in Michigan than Pennsylvania (I don't trust polls) but then the Arab population in Michigan is insignificant to do any damage. She needs Black support and White support to win there and she will.

IjeBos:
Bwahhahahhaha

Lol


We all know that this is what they are going to do again.
In as much as I do not trust the polls I am glad that at least they are no longer in Trump's favour because he would have pointed to it and claimed that it was rigged against. He will point out to it if it shows him leading before election day and he ends up losing.

basilico:
Shapiro is embroiled in a hush money scandal.

Lmao. It has nothing to do with him personally. MAGA will manufacture anything at this point.

bemeruca:
The American election is now a joke. No different from Venezuela

Be patient this is too early.

Wait till after Trump loses again in November to start this charade.

IjeBos:
Here's a good chart of one path to 270 for Trump and Harris.
I think she may pick Shapiro in Pennsylvania as even if it gives her a tiny edge in PA it might be worth it.
Mark Kelly in Arizona would be nice, but I don't think AZ is as crucial a pick up and not sure Mark Kelly makes that much more of an impact in helping her pick up Arizona.
But we shall see.

He is the smartest pick. The fact that the progressives are against him is exactly why she should picķ him. He balances the ticket and appears moderate.

AndroBlaze:
The only thing this poll proves is that Trump is likely to win the electoral college vote and be president. All Trump has to do is win Pennsylvania and add another swing state like Georgia for him to win. All the other states he has are on lockdown and he can't lose in any one of them.

Kamala and democrats need to be serious and do something radical to save Pennsylvania, they cannot afford to lose that state under any circumstance and that was the advantage Joe Biden had as he was originally from that state.

Black people in Georgia and North Carolina should be ashamed of themselves...as usual betrayal runs in our blood.

Lmao, Harris will beat Trump.

Obrigardo:
Convicted felon trump is widely unpopular but when you tell maga this, they'll think you are talking about celebrity popularity. The rapist is so unpopular to voters right now and his recent anti-democracy comments are turning some republicans off.
While Vance has been the worst vp pick in history and that too, widely unpopular.

When it comes to shove, voters are going to vote for kitchen table matters and not the hate that maga and convicted felon trump is pushing.

How did Vance defeat Tim Ryan? Like how?

SmartPolician:
Trump was beating Biden in polls because Biden was too old and sick to lead America. This is something everyone knows. If not for Biden's age and health condition, there was no way Trump would have defeated him.

Harris, just like Obama, is the first in most of the major positions she has held in her life, meaning that she carries a lot of grace and you cannot entirely rule out the possibility of becoming the first female black American president

Disclaimer: I am not for or against anyone. The people should decide who they want.

I don't even believe Trump would have been able to beat Biden.

AbujaCitiBlog:
Reality will set in soon enough. All polls tipped Hillary to win. We know the outcome!
Trump is the next President of the United States of America.

Trump is not winning.

ijebosb:
Yeah, read an article on it.
Speaks to the excitement.
But, I wouldn't jinx it.
I think people are trying to get a jump on the ball.
And with the frats and soros, I can only imagine the parties that are going to happen.

I like the Harris Campaign team. Calling him out and not scared to attack and troll him.
Finally Democrats are learning how to message and people are talking about project 2025 too.

happney65:
I think he is the male version of Sarah Palin.

Even worse.

I couldn't be more happier that Trump picked JD Vance.


That clown brought nothing to that ticket if anything he is bringing in losses.

You are just saying nonsense. Her father is Jamaican, the Blacks in Jamaica have ancestors who were transported as slaves from Africa fo the Americas. That is why she is also African American.Una nor go school at all. "East Indian culture" does not apply to American racial demographic grouping

Amujale:
You aren't going to insult you way out of this one.

Receive sense into your viscera.

Are you going to answer my question?

Kamila herself said she was of East Indian origin, you are claiming she's African American.

Furthermore, you aren't aware of the East Indian culture, im aware of their culture and they completely claim their mothers side, it happens almost everytime.

That would mean that Kamala's dad would've identify as East Indian.

Now are you able to appreciate the absolute facts?

Therefore, you can cease all those false narratives and nonsensical slurs that you're emmiting here.

You are incorrect on so many levels.

ijebosb:
The amount of excitement is insane.
Heard hotel rooms for inauguration are selling out already.

Hotel what?
The election has not even been held.

cococandy:
Oh yes.


White women came out for Kamala. Let the dumb nairalanders quoting me yesterday about how white women will never support her eat dust.

White men are organising their zoom meeting too.
Zoom doh suffer this week.

Cc. 1stgenAmerican


https://x.com/MichaelSkolnik/status/1816813283979985037?s=19

maestro299:
Why did you like Biden?

Go an read his records as President nor dey ask me Tinubu questions.

He also has a good demeanour and calm mind.

thesicilian:
Can you bet on it? Just 100k

I don't bet but she is going to win.

Obrigardo:
Obama will endorse her soon.
You are always on the losing side.

Or you still under a rock, coz you haven't felt this enthusiasm yet, though Obama's endorsement is yt to come. Lol

Rapist trump has no chance bro. Get with the times.

Obama released his endorsement this hour.

We all knew that it was coming.

I am not referring to his endorsements..

I am just here to say that Kamala is going to win.

I like Biden so much and I thought that his dropping out will fracture the party I am glad to be wrong and to see the party solidly behind Madam Vice President.

Future President of the United States.

1stGenAmerican:
I just learned that there is a replay available on YouTube. Going to check it out!

Oh I didn't know. I will find time to.

Obrigardo:
Dumb magats are not ready.
Convicted felon trump has basically given up and ran away from the debates.

Trump is a weak man, he will be forced to debate her to show strength he is using the excuse that she is not yet the nominee let's see what he will do when it officially happens.
Trump is a chicken.

cococandy:
Oh yes.


White women came out for Kamala. Let the dumb nairalanders quoting me yesterday about how white women will never support her eat dust.

She needs at least 55% of White Women's support 95% of Black women and 75% of Hispanic and Asian women's support to win.

Remember in 2016 Trump got 53% support from White women. I believe Kamala can win.