₦airaland Forum

kunle4toyeyaho:
Are those Obi's 2023 votes kept in a wardrobe? Who told you those votes are still intact? You do not understand the dynamic of Nigerian politics.The gale of defections in some southern states has really altered your predictions. If APC wins Osun governorship of 2026, Atiku cannot repeat his victory of 2023 In the state. I agree Atiku is a formidable candidate but he is defeat able. Obi is also a candidate who enjoys ethno-reloigious sentiment, he would also be defeated.

No doubt, Tinubu MAY do better in the Southwest this time around but that's where it stops. I promise you that he has lost more voters in the North than he has gained in the South. Obi on the other hand, has barely lost any voter outside of the Southwest. The 3-horse race may have favoured Tinubu in 2023 but it will now be a disadvantage to him in 2027. This is because he and Obi will scramble for the Southern vote while Atiku may likely consolidate on his Northern base, which has the advantage of numbers. Tinubu's Southern agenda as a strategy to galvanise support will not fly with Obi also being on the ballot.

I have simply proved to you that the gale of defections will have little to no impact on the electorate's voting pattern. Infact, in 2027 barring rigging, the opposite will be true. The politicians are simply doing that for personal protection, succumbing to blackmail or for promised financial gains.

kunle4toyeyaho:
Apart from 5 states of Southeast and may likely have a good show in Delta,which other southern State would Obi win? The type of beating he would receive in Lagos this time around would be unprecedented.
Moreover, politics is deep. Many northern politicians have presidential ambition,they would rather endure Tinubu for just 4years than to vote Atiku who would throw them out of aspiration in 2031. Tinubu just needs to improve on his performance and make some key appointments from Northeast and Southeast,he would emerge victorious.

I wouldn't bet on it if I were you. Obi won 9 states in the South in 2023, Tinubu won only 5 (4 in Southwest and Rivers under questionable circumstances). You seem to be overestimating the impact of politicians on electoral results. Below are the politicians who couldn't deliver Tinubu in 2023. Tinubu has even become more unpopular since then.

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Lagos for himself

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Osun for himself

- Muhammadu Buhari failed to deliver Katsina for Tinubu/APC

- Barr Simon Bako Lalong failed to deliver Plateau for Tinubu/APC

- SP Akpabio failed to deliver Akwa Ibom for Tinubu/APC

- DSP Barau failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- NSA Ribadu failed to deliver Adamawa for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Speaker Abbas failed to deliver Kaduna for Tinubu/APC

- Sen Kalu failed to deliver Abia for Tinubu/APC

- Hope Uzodinma failed to deliver Imo for Tinubu/APC.

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Ganduje failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- Gov. Mai Mala failed to deliver Yobe for Tinubu/APC

- Alkali failed to deliver Gombe for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Wammako failed to deliver Sokoto for Tinubu/APC

- Oyetola failed to deliver Osun for Tinubu/APC

- Dave Umahi failed to deliver Ebonyi for Tinubu/APC

Image123:
You don't know politics. The only thing that gave Obi votes outside the South East was that people were voting against APC, not voting for Obi. This time, it won't happen. There's no Emefiele or APC policies working against the party, no Muslim muslim fear, no religious or tribal manipulation outside the south east. Governors are VERY happy with Tinubu. Northerners will not vote any other Southerner as they want to be in power 2031. Except God, it's done and dusted for Tinubu the Jagaban's victory. It is what it is.

Of course, the Governors are very happy. They now get more allocation to the detriment of the masses. Tinubu is taxing the poor just to cater to the elites. But how many of these governors can deliver their states to Tinubu? How many delivered their states in 2023?

What has changed between 2023 and now that will make Nigerians now vote APC? Nigerians were better off in 2023. In 2023, I can tell you for free that a lot of Northerners genuinely wanted power to shift to the South, hence why Tinubu got 5.6m votes but Tinubu has turned out to be the bad Southern choice. Northerners will now split their votes between Atiku (their own son) and Obi (those who still feel power should remain in the South).

Heads or tail, voting against Tinubu will not stop power from heading to the North in 2031. Tinubu cannot prevent that. Why should the North wait till 2031 when they have the leverage to take it now? Tinubu did not win the South, the North made him President and in a 3-horse race, he will now lose, unlike 2023.

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

With which votes? Northern votes? Obi will definitely win the South and this time, a lot of Northerners that voted Tinubu in the North will now vote Atiku. In a 3-horse race, Tinubu will lose.

The governors are beginning to develop cold feet having gauged the mood of Nigerians. Nigerians could be many things but certainly not cowards. Tinubu cannot strong-arm Nigerians to vote him by merely trying to make the country a one-party state. The people will rather find any other alternative than to be cowered to vote Tinubu. Governors like Sheriff only decamped to neutralize Omo-Agege and provide soft-landing for Okowa, nothing more. Tinubu will struggle to build momentum for his re-election, especially in the North. His lacklustre reception in Katsina points to that. He has also lost vocal Northerners like Elrufai that rallied the North for him in 2023.

By 2027, Obi will best Tinubu in the South no matter the number of Southern governors that decamp to the APC. With a strong Northern Vice, Obi also has the potential to do well in the North. He will get the votes of Northerners who believe that 2027 is still the turn of the South. Tinubu isn't the face of the Southern candidacy, Obi is.

On the other hand, Atiku will contest with an equally popular Vice from the Southsouth and will sweep the Northeast and much of the Northwest votes. This will be even worse if Tinubu goes ahead to replace Shettima with Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso on the other hand, will lose the support of most of his supporters because Northerners are genuinely angry with the Tinubu hunger administration. At best, he can only contribute 1 million votes to Tinubu and only in Kano. Tinubu still has a deficit of 4.6 million potential Northern votes to make up for. Muslim-muslim ticket was his only saving grace in 2023 but it won't offer any advantage in 2027. Unlike previous elections that were largely driven by region and religion, 2027 will be driven by performance and Tinubu's maladministration puts him at a disadvantage.

We know whose modus operandi it is to divide every single establishment that poses a threat to what they now feel is an empire. MC Oluomo was brought from Lagos to illegally usurp and displace the authority of Baruwa as NURTW President despite a court order affirming Baruwa. Engineered crisis in Rivers APC using Abe against Amaechi and prevented APC from fielding a candidate, undermined Aregbesola in Osun State in favour of Oyetola, created factions in PDP using Wike, did same in Labour Party by buying out Abure, used Mandate vs Justice forum to continue to undermine Sanwo-olu in Lagos, turned Uba Sani against his benefactor (Elrufai) in Kaduna, continues to use federal might to perpetuate emir of Kano crisis in Kano despite the state government having sole autonomy over chieftaincy matters, pocketed the Legislature and the Judiciary and now attempting to strong-arm NANS by backing an illegal faction. All these while claiming to be a Democrat.

Biodun556:
Our popular beliefs in Nigerian politics is that any presidential candidate not supported by core norths ( north east and north west) will never win presidential election in Nigeria.

But 2023 election proved us wrong. Both Tinubu and Wike insisted on Southern presidential candidate and they won absolutely. This is what brought Wike and Tinubu together.

The northern politicians in APC didn't support Tinubu in primary election. To everybody amazement, he won even without Buhari's support.

Another blow from Wike is that of Atiku, a high profile northern political elite and politician. Wike insisted that Atiku is a northerner, therefore he shouldn't stand as PDP presidential flag bearer after Buhari 8 years in office. Atiku refused, Wike held on to his scrotum and he fell yakata.

These two scenarios brought Wike and Tinubu together. The two Southern warriors

The success of Tinubu and Wike is what is driving many governors from the south into APC before any other thing.

It is now proven that no region not even two can single handedly make anybody Nigerian president. The six geo political zones have almost equal political relevance.

Lol. The North made Tinubu president in 2023. He got 5.6m votes from the North while losing the South to Obi. Tinubu only won 4 out of 6 states in the Southwest and only Rivers state in the Southsouth. In contrast, Obi won 9 states in the South. Obi will still best Tinubu in the South in 2027, irrespective of all the governors decamping to APC. Southern votes will be split with Obi having a slight advantage over Tinubu.

Tinubu is clearly desperate and the North will still decide who wins the election in 2027. The North is currently adopting strategic silence but it will be become clearer soon. There will be no 5.6m votes waiting for Tinubu this time. He knows it, which is why he's employing every crude tactics known in the books, from cajoling Fubara to decamp via SOE and using EFCC and Co to threaten and blackmail the likes of Okowa. Even Ibori and others are now being courted and promised heaven and earth. Tinubu is desperate!

Unlike 2023, Muslim-Muslim ticket will offer the President no political advantage in 2027 in the North. Tinubu has lost Northern votes and he's deluding himself to think he now has the South just because he can blackmail, induce and threaten some Southern Politicians to jump ship. One only needs to look deeply to see that the PEOPLE of the South are largely not with Tinubu. Unless his plan is to win the South like he "won" Rivers State.

So dark the con of man! The extent of this greed is unfathomable.

Unlike the 2015 defections that came with momemtum, Nigerians are largely unimpressed by the money-induced and coarsed defections borne out of desperation and panic. Obi has proved to Nigerians that barring rigging, the powers of a governor over the electorates are exaggerated. It will be even better for all the bad eggs to gather under one party so Nigerians can easily retire them once and for all. The new slogan in the streets is that "2027 will be between APC and Nigerians".

gawu1:
The greatest mistake Tinubu made was sidelining allies like El Rufai, who fought diligently to ensure his survival against the influential northern politicians, such as Baba Ahmed Hakeem. Tinubu sacrificed El Rufai in an attempt to win over these politicians, thinking he could change their perception of him.

Now, we will see how figures like Rabadu, who orchestrated a harmful plan against El Rufai, will manage to protect his political influence. Tinubu should hold himself accountable for the negative backlash he is facing from the north. El Rufai would never have allowed these attacks go without serious rebuttals.

You're absolutely right on this. That singular action of Tinubu after publicly begging him to work with him will cost the President. He gained nothing from that apart from breaking the myth that he always keeps to his word. It has created an atmosphere of distrust from both current and prior northern supporters of the President while making potential allies he is seeking to court (e.g Kwankwaso) to become wary of him.

The Northern opposition also now have a weapon with which to demarket him in the North. Tinubu will struggle to get a vocal Northern supporter that can boldly defend him without looking like a fool. The case of Elrufai will always be cited. The likes of Bwala and Co are as good as useless. It was a strategic costly mistake from the so-called "master strategist".

Lol. Is this how Tinubu intends to win the election? By peddling false news about opposition figures joining his team. From Kwankwaso, to all PDP governors and now to Obidients? At this point, they will soon tell us that Atiku and Obi are about to join the Tinubu campaign. I smell panic!

jamafa:
They will also need SW help as dey did in 2015.

That statement born to rule, will change soon.

E go soon clear

Not necessarily. The Southwest is not the only bloc in the South. If Tinubu wanted to move against the North, he could at least have made sure that he has the entire South in his grip. This is not the case, no thanks to nepotism, greed and covetousness. Even the Southwest is not entirely in his grip (he only won 4 out of 6 states). Attempts to sell Tinubu as the "Southern candidate" is not selling.

flokii:
The core North will be commiting political suicide in 2027 if they follow likes of Datti-Ahmed, El-rufai and co.. The best bet is for them to support PBAT to complete 8 years just like our people supported Buhari to complete 8 years.
Any sinister move to stop South's 8 years turn in power will cause serious political tension in Nigeria. Moreover, the Middle Belt/North Central won't vote for any Fulani ticket because of the mass murder going on in Plateau and Benue States. Supporting a Fulani person to power is like signing their own death warrant.

Fear, is that you? Northerners are not cowards. If they are for you, they do so wholeheartedly. If they are against you, they go all out. Northerners will largely not support Tinubu in 2027 and heaven will not fall. And if heaven falls, then so be it!

How has Tinubu treated the North and even Northerners like Elrufai who went all out, staking everything to support him in 2023? Shettima is next in line to be used and dumped while Kwankwaso is now the new bride. Well, Kwankwaso is not a fool. Tinubu thinks he can rubbish respected Northern leaders without consequences? Well, he's grossly mistaken! Barring rigging (which will be resisted) and other shady practices like infiltrating other political parties to prevent them from fielding candidates, there's no pathway to Tinubu's re-election.

kingamaa:
Interesting days ahead

One thing is certain: the North has never been more disunited than now, and the South has never been more united than now.

So do the maths.

My sincere prayer is that the electorates will open their eyes and vote for a leader who will listen and take Nigeria to the promised land.

Lol. Are you sure it's not the other way round? How is the South united? The North usually votes one-way until 2023 when they went against that to accommodate Tinubu. This will not happen again in 2027. Tinubu on the other hand, has not won the confidence of electorates from the Southsouth and Southeast. Forget what the elites are saying. Listen to the people.

SensualMan1:
Lol. A house divided against itself cannot stand.
APC will disintegrate before 2027

Touché. All the opposition that Tinubu has been facing has been from APC. Man is too greedy and self-centered. The traditional opposition figures have barely joined the fray. The number of aggrieved party members that will stay behind and sabotage the party are more than the number that has left the party.

Cherrybae:
Please can you name the people on the ground that are not with Tinubu.

The Southeastern and Southsouthern electorates are still not with Tinubu.

Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu will share northern votes with atiku

You need to be on ground in the North today to understand that's a pipedream. That was the untested Tinubu who got so much hype as the "builder of Lagos" and one whom the North owed a "favour". Tinubu has now been tested and demystified. Even the Northern APC governors cannot come out now to openly canvass for votes for Tinubu without risking their re-election chances, unlike their Southern counterparts.

It's quite clear to the discerning that the President and the Vice President are not in good terms. Hakeem Baba Ahmed served under the Vice President's office and when you juxtapose that with the opposition coming from the Borno bloc ( Zulum, Ndume, Monguno), you will begin to get the picture.

By the way, what happened to the Tax bills? The government seems to have lost interest in it after Shettima and the governors had their way. So the major reason for wanting to pass it in the first place was the increase in VAT and the derivation sharing formula? The President and his Vice's relationship went downhill ever since that episode, perhaps even before then. Shettima might fight Tinubu by proxy if rumours of his replacement turns out to be true.

sleek214:
They know they've lost the North, so the game plan is to capture Akwa Ibom, Delta, Edo Cross River and Rivers state. Unfortunately, they've promised these 1st time governors automatic return for 2nd term and the governors will rig their states for APC. Just like 2023 that we begged obidients not to waste their votes on Obi, we will still beg them again not to waste their votes on Obi in 2027 because Tinubu will use the media and some influencers to push Obi to contest and they've started doing it. I just hope Obi will listen to the voice of reasoning and not contest if he truly wants Tinubu out. For obidients that would want to say Atiku should step down for Obi, Tinubu will Win in a landslide if it's between him and Obi because the north would rather endure another 4 years of Tinubu than the uncertainty of Obi's presidency. But Atiku and Tinubu on the ballot, Atiku will defeat Tinubu with a landslide. If all three are on the ballot, then Tinubu will win.

Not entirely correct. If all 3 are on the ballot, Atiku will win with overwhelming Northern support. The North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes in 2023. The dynamics of 2023 are not the same now. Obi will only share the Southern votes with Tinubu and might actually still get the upperhand irrespective of some governors decamping to the APC. Obi contesting will also kill any agenda of "It's the turn of the South" that Tinubu may be looking to use in galvanising his base. Tinubu may be influencing the elites but the people on the ground are not with him.

Only the politically smart can see the correlation in the rifts between godfather and godson in most of these APC states. Uba Sani-Elrufai, Alia-Akume, Sanwo-olu-Obasa, etc. It smacks of one person's trademark of setting two people against each other while attempting to play both sides.

Eyes are becoming clearer after claiming the likes of Elrufai are irrelevant. While the Agbadorians are grandstanding on social media, their principals are getting uneasy and running from pillar to post. The rest of the CPC bloc who won't publicly decamp will stay behind and do the damage from within. Tinubu has mismanaged the goodwill and "Amana' that Northerners placed on him. He can go scout for votes elsewhere. None of the Northern pretenders in his cabinet today can deliver the North for him.

Influential Northerners are leaving the APC in droves but charlatans like Bwala and Reno Omokri with no polling units are telling APC not to worry and even hastening their departure with insults. Can Bwala deliver his ward to APC in Borno? We will all learn politics together.

maasoap:
Well, the merger produced APC even when the ruling party (PDP) mocked them. It will do APC like film trick when it happens again because if oppositions have brains, they would have known that merger is the only way they can defeat APC

Not the only way, but certainly the easiest way. Obi contesting in 2027 will only hurt Tinubu. The North will no longer give Tinubu 5.6m votes as they did in 2023. Majority of that number will go to Atiku, who has barely lost a single voter from 2023. So where will Tinubu get his votes from? Only the Southwest?

All prior Southern candidates have always won their base convincingly, or otherwise, got delivered by majority of the North. Tinubu will have neither in 2027. What's his pathway?

sarrki:
I part of the nation is born to rule

Let that sink in ?

What arrogance tell me ?

Tinubu should relinquish his position to Obi in 2027 to show that he's genuinely a Southern presidency advocate. He truncated a Southsouthern presidency and usurped the Southeastern slot in collaboration with the "born-to-rules" in 2023 and you still think you can push the "born to rule" agenda for your own gain? Laughable!

sarrki:
One thing I can tell you is that

With all permutations tinubu will do 8years

Forget that rumbling from the north

South will finish that 8 years

They kept mute during buhari

They should as well keep mute now

The years of arrogance is gone

Okay. If he has any other pathway to win his re-election without Northern support, then goodluck to him. Otherwise, your arrogance changes nothing. His strategy has not carried the entire South along which is a mistake one can only expect from a rookie.

5.6m of his 8.3m total in 2023 was from the North. Meanwhile, Atiku has barely lost a single voter and is now set to improve upon his 2023 margin with his alliance with El-Rufai and the CPC bloc. Tinubu will still get bested by Obi in the South if Obi runs independently. So, where will Tinubu's margins come from outside of the fragmented Southwest?

I know you will come back with the pathetic "Tinubu is not Jonathan" cliché but Tinubu is also not Buhari. Buhari had 11m organic voters, Tinubu does not. Both Buhari and Jonathan won their region and State, Tinubu did not. Even if he rigs, he can only rule by consensus. The opposition to his candidacy will be so glaring that rigging will be pointless. Forget the sycophants with Tinubu logo caps, they will vote Obi when the chips are down.

Tinubu's only strategy will be rigging and using the courts to stop other parties from fielding candidates, just like he did in Rivers using Magnus Abe and Wike against Amaechi. He has no other pathway to re-election. This is because 5.6m of his 8.3m total in 2023 was from the North. Meanwhile, Atiku has barely lost a single voter and is now set to improve upon his 2023 margin with his alliance with El-Rufai and the CPC bloc. Tinubu will still get bested by Obi in the South if Obi runs independently. So, where will Tinubu's margins come from outside of the fragmented Southwest?

Agbadorians will soon come with the pathetic "Tinubu is not Jonathan" cliché but Tinubu is also not Buhari. Buhari had 11m organic voters, Tinubu does not. Both Buhari and Jonathan won their region and State convincingly, Tinubu did not. Even if he rigs, he can only rule by consensus. The opposition to his candidacy will be so glaring that rigging will be pointless.

His strategy has not carried the entire South along which is a mistake one can only expect from a rookie. It will be impossible to sell Tinubu as a "Southern candidate" because he truncated a Southsouthern presidency in 2015 and usurped the Southeastern slot in collaboration with the "born-to-rules" in 2023 using a Muslim-Muslim ticket. 2027 will be payback time.

Tinubu needs Buhari’s endorsement more than any other candidate on the ballot. This is because 5.6m of his 8.3m total in 2023 was from the North. Meanwhile, Atiku has barely lost a single voter and is now set to improve upon his 2023 margin with his alliance with El-Rufai and the CPC bloc. Tinubu will still get bested by Obi in the South if Obi runs independently. So, where will Tinubu's margins come from outside of the fragmented Southwest?

Agbadorians will soon come with the pathetic "Tinubu is not Jonathan" cliché but Tinubu is also not Buhari. Buhari had 11m organic voters, Tinubu does not. Both Buhari and Jonathan won their region and State, Tinubu did not.

In a bid to be savage, Bwala ended up indicting the Tinubu government. A presidential spokesman affirming that they are local governments in Nigeria that are no-go areas does not align with what we've been gaslighted with by the persons in charge of security in the country. It also confirms what governor Zulum said recently and makes the response by the minister of information urging Nigerians to ignore Zulum to be very callous and unfortunate. Nigerians didn't vote Senator Ndume to be in charge of security

Don't worry. Garba Shehu said Buhari will deliver the North to Tinubu in 2027. Buhari who asked electorates to vote their conscience in an election he was contesting in. Why would 2027 be different? Watch them flood this thread saying Buhari and the North are not relevant. That's their new slogan. No-one is relevant except Tinubu and his lagos boys. We will all learn politics together.