₦airaland Forum

TheAdvocate:
Northern Christians in their millions are going to vote for Tinubu. Take that to the bank. I am a Christian from Adamawa state.

Okay. Northern Christians in their millions voted against Tinubu in 2023 and he still won, despite the Muslim North splitting their votes three-ways between Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso. Northern Christians all voted Obi in 2023 and how many votes did Obi amass in the North? You can do the maths to determine your true voting strength and capacity.

Mynd44:
El-Rufai should have remained a vocal opposition within APC or gone back to PDP

Don't worry about El-Rufai, he doesn't need to be on the ballot in 2027 to influence things. His opposition to the current government is all most Northerners need in order to act accordingly. A coalition is not a merger. Don't confuse the two. A sizable chunk of Tinubu's 5.6m Northern votes will go to Atiku in 2027. Meanwhile, Atiku has barely lost a single vote from 2023.

With Obi contesting under Labour, he would only spoil things for Tinubu (the Southern candidate) in the Southsouth and Southeast, while still providing an alternative for Southern as well as Christian voters that will agitate for "Southern turn" and against "muslim-muslim" ticket respectively. Where will Tinubu's votes then come from outside of the fragmented Southwest?

Buhari saw through the greed and uncontained lust for power and self-angrandisement. Events have proven Buhari right. Tinubu is now sending emissaries to beg Buhari in time for 2027. I thought Garba Shehu told them that Buhari would work for his re-election. This was well celebrated by the Agbadorians. What has changed? Barring rigging (which will be resisted), there is no pathway for his re-election.

humberjade:
Just like SW made Buhari President. So what?

Bring the margin of votes that Southwest contributed to Buhari in 2015 and 2019 let's compare. Southwest rode on the Buhari (Change) wave, not vice versa. Buhari has an organic 12m voters that always voted for him in all elections. How many organic voters does Tinubu have?

crestedaguiyi:
matterz arising

The north has been demystified. Thank you Tinubu. Na only mouth the idiots been get, we unknowingly they avoid them since, mugus

How has the North been demystified when Tinubu got 5.6m out of his total 8.3m votes from the North? The North made him President. This is despite splitting their votes four ways between Atiku, Kwankwaso, Tinubu and Obi (Northern minorities). That he chose to be ungrateful is solely on him. You can start talking about demystification when he's able to win re-election without majority of his votes emanating from the North. I hope Southsouth and Southeast will come through for him.

helinues:
What precisely did their attacks on Reno achieved?

Because this same Reno would soon become an ambassador

Yes. Tinubu can make whosoever he so wishes an ambassador to curtail them from doing further damage to his already battered image but what political capital does he derive from that? Reno cannot deliver his own nuclear family to Tinubu. The only person currently rating Reno are the Lukumi people who fall over themselves on his comment section on social media praising him. Those people will still vote Tinubu even if he stands on Eko bridge and shoots their father. Tinubu has lost the Northern votes and he does not have the entire South on lockdown. Why does he continue to play politics of alienation?

Habbeyy:
Tinubu won without Buhari's support, you think he would not rig himself in if need be in 2027? Dey play

He can try. You only rig where you're popular. 5.6m Northerners indeed voted Tinubu inspite of Buhari in 2023. Majority of those numbers have now realised that Buhari was right.

Lol. This is a counter follow-up to Abdullahi Adamu's visit to Buhari. If Buhari was largely passive to Tinubu in 2023, is it in 2027 that he will carry Tinubu matter for head? Buhari speaks in body language, forget what his spokespersons say on his media accounts. The truth is that Tinubu has sidelined the CPC and the then New PDP bloc and they have respectfully pulled away from the APC. Let's see whether he can do it alone, without even the entire South behind him. One thing is sure, there will be no 5.6m Northern votes waiting for him to come and collect in 2027.

Even their media and communications spokespersons are paying for image laundering and propaganda to tell us they are working. That's to tell you how bad it has become, and they know it. The problem is not Otega Ogra. There's simply nothing to report about. He's not a magician.

Abokinmanoma:
APC is now the Toast of Southern Kaduna


Tinubu Sabi play Politics aswear

How many are Southern Kaduna? To estimate their true voting strength, simply look at the numbers in 2023. Southern Kaduna largely voted LP in protest of muslim-muslim ticket while the majority Northern Kaduna splitted their votes between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso. With Elrufai out of the APC, the North will largely vote one-way and it won't be for Tinubu. So simply add all of Tinubu's, Atiku's and Kwankwaso's numbers together. Now, how smart is Tinubu?

Shehu Sani cannot win the primaries under the APC in today's Kaduna unless he's gifted the ticket. In any case, he will lose the election proper if he manages to get the ticket. He has no electoral value but he seems to be overrated by non-northerners. He got 2 votes from delegates (himself and 1 other) when he contested for the gubernatorial primaries under PDP. Tinubu is relying on his likes to deliver the North for him. We will learn politics together.

Even during the NADECO days, it's obvious they didn't hate the dictatorship, they were just envious they weren't the ones perpetrating it. The traits of dictatorship have always been obvious in the "small man with a fragile ego" from day one. From spontaneous change in the national anthem, to abrupt subsidy removal, to a failed invasion of Niger Republic that became a disaster leading to the balkanization of ECOWAS. It was clear he had been dieing to prove that he's in-charge.

Nigerians can see the political interference in governance in Kano and Osun as well as the undermining of the Legislature and Executive in Lagos. The so-called Democrat is fast proving to be the despot he has always secretly admired while falsely claiming to be against. Disgraceful!

Elrufai has moved on. It is the APC who seem not to be able to go a day without talking about him. Moving on does not mean he should refrain from active opposition to the APC, that is delusional. Opposing the APC is what he has signed up for until 2027. Compare notes with him after the election. The APC is already weary from confronting Elrufai and neither Obi nor Atiku have even joined the conversation yet. APC are getting frustrated with the apparent lacklustre support from Northerners already, hence the pathetic speech by Rice Sharer Seyi Tinubu in Yobe yesterday which he shamefully ended with a sole rendition of "on your mandate".

Elrufai was the most vocal Tinubu supporter in 2023 and with his ouster from the APC, Tinubu’s chances in the North are as good as dead. Why isn't any Northerner in the APC actively selling Tinubu? None of them wants to ruin their future political chances for a man that will not hesitate to throw them under the bus. They have learnt from the treatment of Elrufai and no Northerner will carry Tinubu matter for head like gala anymore without looking like a fool. Some Agbadorians are beginning to get it. We will all learn politics together!

People who wants to know how the North will vote in 2027 should simply add APC's votes to what Atiku pulled in 2023. The North will largely vote one-way in 2027 as they've always done prior to 2023. APC have also been fooling themselves that Southern Kaduna will vote Tinubu because he gave them a university but are the people of Southern Kaduna aware that they are voting Tinubu? They voted Obi in 2023 and nothing indicates that their position has changed. Tinubu cannot fly a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027 while expecting to clear Christian votes. He should first change the ticket as a show of good faith. Bribing reverend fathers with political appointments will not be enough.

LagosOrigin:
He's not selfish when he helped tinubu to become president right

The north will never forget this level of betrayal by tinubu and his gang of Lagos Agberos currently occupying Abuja through the help of El Rufai

Just imagine the level of treachery! The betrayal will be one for the history books and the North will respond accordingly. Elrufai was the most vocal Tinubu supporter in 2023 and with his ouster from the APC, Tinubu’s chances in the North are as good as dead. Why isn't any Northerner in the APC actively selling Tinubu? None of them wants to ruin their future political chances for a man that will not hesitate to throw them under the bus. They have learnt from the treatment of Elrufai. Some Agbadorians are beginning to get it. We will all learn politics together!

People who wants to know how the North will vote in 2027 should simply add APC's votes to what Atiku pulled in 2023. APC have also been fooling themselves that Southern Kaduna will vote Tinubu because he gave them a university but are the people of Southern Kaduna aware that they are voting Tinubu? They voted Obi in 2023 and nothing indicates that their position has changed.

Trinitycian:
Dude, I'm in Kaduna. 3 billion horse race will only ruin Tinubu. Atiku's votes are still intact. Most of El-Rufai supporters are now with Atiku
Even Kwankwaso couldn't hurt Atiku in Kaduna.

When I created a thread boasting how Atiku will win Kaduna despite El-Rufai's noise and bragging, Garfield1 and others doubted me. See eh, the votes wey Tinubu go get in Kaduna come 2027, even Satan go pity am.

Na Uba Sani I pity because I like am. If Atiku remains neutral, he may be reelected, if not, he's gone.

Come to Kaduna or ask anyone here, Atiku is the most popular politician, even more popular now with the issues BAT has with El-Rufai.

I can't say anything about the other northern states, but you see Kaduna, zero your mind. I'm willing to bet 200k naira again.

Read my thread here

https://www.nairaland.com/7584660/deliver-kaduna-atiku-landslide-victory

Abeg no loud am. Allow Agbadorians to keep deceiving themselves while they open numerous thread on Elrufai. Your postulation is accurate not just in Kaduna, but in virtually the whole North. Elrufai was the most vocal Tinubu supporter in 2023 and with his ouster from the APC, Tinubu’s chances in the North are as good as dead. Why isn't any Northerner in the APC actively selling Tinubu? None of them wants to ruin their future political chances for a man that will not hesitate to throw them under the bus. They have learnt from the treatment of Elrufai. Some Agbadorians are beginning to get it. We will all learn politics together!

People who wants to know how Kaduna will vote in 2027 should simply add APC's votes to what Atiku pulled in 2023. APC have also been fooling themselves that Southern Kaduna will vote Tinubu because he gave them a university but are the people of Southern Kaduna aware that they are voting Tinubu? I dey laugh.

simpleseyi:
Igbos are already rolling on the ground after falling for the gimmicks of the short man evil

You Yorubas fell for it, benefitted from it and then did what you're famous for. Allow the Igbos to also fall for it. You think you’re smart abi? Bloody Betrayers!!

Smh. This man doesn't even give a damn anymore with his brazen corruption. State capture in full effect. Nigeria has never had it this bad.

To the batists consoling themselves by saying Tinubu is using Elrufai, how could Tinubu be using Elrufai when SDP will be taking APC's traditional votes away from the APC (especially in the North). In order words, any vote for SDP will be a net minus for APC. Atiku's PDP votes are intact and Obi's LP votes are intact irrespective of party. Elrufai made many Northerners vote APC in 2023 but not anymore. Even Northerners against Elrufai today only chastise him in an "I told you so, but you didn't listen" kinda way. In the end, he'll be treated like the prodigal son who has returned home. The North will unite for a final onslaught on APC.

yarimo:
El RUFAI in SDP is what pat utomi is in labour party if you know you know

This is what Batists now use in consoling themselves. SDP will only be taking APC's traditional votes away from the APC (especially in the North). In order words, any vote for SDP will be a net minus for APC. Atiku's PDP votes are intact and Obi's LP votes are intact irrespective of party. Elrufai made many Northerners vote APC in 2023 but not anymore. Even Northerners against Elrufai today only chastise him in an "I told you so, but you didn't listen" kinda way. In the end, he'll be treated like the prodigal son who has returned home. The North will unite for a final onslaught on APC.

Yet another Elrufai thread! They are really squeezing out news headlines from this single interview. Elrufai won't contest for the Presidency in 2027.

Elrufai has taken over the cyberspace for the past months. What a man! At least one Nairaland thread will be created on Elrufai every hour. That's capacity. Those who love him, do so passionately while those who loathe him do so fiercely.

Politics of bigmanism. Yesterday's men like Sule Lamido are the very bane of PDP. They costed Atiku the presidency by preventing him from reconciliation with other aggrieved members. He should collect his settlement from Tinubu and give way.

seunmsg:
They contributed nothing. What did Amaechi, Fayemi, Rauf and Malami contribute to Tinubu’s victory?

Even El-Rufai that is making the most noise, did he win his state for the party?

Okay o. So it's now about who won their States? You forget Tinubu is very unpopular and managing to scrap votes for him in most states was a miracle.

If you're insulting Elrufai because he didn't deliver Kaduna for Tinubu/APC then remember this;

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Lagos for himself

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Osun for himself

- Muhammadu Buhari failed to deliver Katsina for Tinubu/APC

- Barr Simon Bako Lalong failed to deliver Plateau for Tinubu/APC

- SP Akpabio failed to deliver Akwa Ibom for Tinubu/APC

- DSP Barau failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- NSA Ribadu failed to deliver Adamawa for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Speaker Abbas failed to deliver Kaduna for Tinubu/APC

- Sen Kalu failed to deliver Abia for Tinubu/APC

- Hope Uzodinma failed to deliver Imo for Tinubu/APC.

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Ganduje failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- Gov. Mai Mala failed to deliver Yobe for Tinubu/APC

- Alkali failed to deliver Gombe for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Wammako failed to deliver Sokoto for Tinubu/APC

- Oyetola failed to deliver Osun for Tinubu/APC

- Dave Umahi failed to deliver Ebonyi for Tinubu/APC

Are they also irrelevant and paper-weight politicians

You guys are making the same mistakes PDP make in 2015

.

The irrelevant Elrufai continues to be the hot topic for months nonstop. APC seem to have no antidote for him. Elrufai is comfortable being in opposition, that's his turf and he knows it well. Admit or not, his message is resonating with the people he intends it to resonate with. Tinubu can't eat his cake and have it.

He is in the system so he knows how it goes. That's what you get when "security reports" are used to sideline opponents from political appointments and gain undue advantage.

seunmsg:
lol. SDP is now made up of the disgruntled APC cabal that worked desperately to stop Tinubu but got defeated by the President.

They were defeated by Tinubu with the support of 5.6m voters from Northern Nigeria. I hope those numbers are still intact for Tinubu? There is a difference between being optimistic and being foolhardy. Time shall tell.

Wendel Simlin, the Spiritual Leader of the Lukumi people has spoken. Watch his minions fall over themselves as they struggle to lap the garbage he spews. Buhari’s loyalty to the APC? Assuming but not conceding that such a thing exists, what is it worth in the dynamics of today's polity? We will all learn politics together.

JASONjnr:
That's always there mentality.....

They wanted to manipulate Tinubu the way GEJ brought them closer and they killed his political ambition.....


South is smarter now;

South is smarter now but the so-called Southern President is cornering everything for just the Lagos bloc of the Southwest. South is smarter but is the Southern President smart? Time shall tell.

Daddyk87:
Congratulations to them
No be Nigeria politicians?
If they are not on sharing table, the government is bad, they want to rescue Nigeria.
But if they are part of the government, .... Oh Nigerians should be patient things will normalize. Blah blah.
I can't imagine some people are celebrating El-rufai defection, same man they tag terrorist few years ago are now a darling.
If El-rufai is part of president Tinubu cabinet by now , he would have been singing and praising him for take bold decisions

APC is expending all its arsenal on Elrufai. "When you corner a rat, it will fight back". The so-called master strategist should have known this. They pushed Elrufai until he had his back to the wall and left him no room to wriggle. What did they expect him to do? Even in terms of optics, Tinubu has lost the moral high ground because all Nigerians saw how hard Elrufai worked for his election. There is also a public video of Tinubu begging Elrufai in Kaduna to stay behind and work with him. That alone screams betrayal and Northerners do not take betrayals lightly.

It's because of the concept of "Trust" (Amana) that made many Northerners go against Buhari’s body language to support Tinubu in the first place. Northerners take pride in keeping their word no matter what. Why then would Tinubu break that trust? He gambled. Elrufai was never a direct threat to Tinubu. At best, his competitors were other Northerners like Ribadu. If Tinubu wanted to take his pound of flesh from Elrufai, he should have waited until his second tenure was secured. That's what a smart politician would have done.

Elrufai is a very dependable ally but a very formidable foe. Tinubu can no longer get 5.6m votes in the North with Elrufai openly campaigning against him and I don't see him making up for that deficit anywhere in the South. Not with his lopsided appointments. Maybe Tinubu thought Elrufai would be desperate and go contest the election in another party thereby further splitting Northern votes. How wrong he was! Elrufai would do more damage in 2027 without being on the ballot than if he was on it. There's no Northerner currently in Tinubu’s cabinet that can counter the damage that Elrufai will do.

A Tsunami is coming! Tinubu failed to consolidate on his victory and became too pompous. This is Nigeria, not Lagos. He failed to reconcile with the South and at the same time, began to antagonize the North despite tanking the economy and causing a cost of living crisis with his spontaneous fuel subsidy removal. Very poor strategy from someone who won with the least margin in the history of the country.

Meanwhile, his supporters online are jubilating and patting themselves on the back just because Buhari said he's still a member of the APC. Is "I am for everybody and I am for no-one" a joke to them? Buhari's political mantra is like Nigeria's diplomatic policy, "non-alignment". Besides, what is coming is bigger than Buhari.

We will all learn politics together.

"When you corner a rat, it will fight back". The so-called master strategist should have known this. They pushed Elrufai until he had his back to the wall and left him no room to wriggle. What did they expect him to do? Even in terms of optics, Tinubu has lost the moral high ground because all Nigerians saw how hard Elrufai worked for his election. There is also a public video of Tinubu begging Elrufai in Kaduna to stay behind and work with him. That alone screams betrayal and Northerners do not take betrayals lightly.

It's because of the concept of "Trust" (Amana) that made many Northerners go against Buhari’s body language to support Tinubu in the first place. Northerners take pride in keeping their word no matter what. Why then would Tinubu break that trust? He gambled. Elrufai was never a direct threat to Tinubu. At best, his competitors were other Northerners like Ribadu. If Tinubu wanted to take his pound of flesh from Elrufai, he should have waited until his second tenure was secured. That's what a smart politician would have done.

Elrufai is a very dependable ally but a very formidable foe. Tinubu can no longer get 5.6m votes in the North with Elrufai openly campaigning against him and I don't see him making up for that deficit anywhere in the South. Not with his lopsided appointments. Maybe Tinubu thought Elrufai would be desperate and go contest the election in another party thereby further splitting Northern votes. How wrong he was! Elrufai would do more damage in 2027 without being on the ballot than if he was on it. There's no Northerner currently in Tinubu’s cabinet that can counter the damage that Elrufai will do.