₦airaland Forum

DoTheNeedful:
That is fine! I am not against Obi's presidency. I am not one of those APC supporters who hate Obi. Tinubu vs Obi is my dream match-up so that I am happy with anyone. It is the turn of the South.

My earlier fear about Obi was being a stepping stone to a Northern presidency.

Yes, but which part of the South? After 8 years of Obasanjo as President and 8 years of Osinbajo as Vice, Tinubu had no business contesting against Obi in 2023. Its the turn of the South but your man Friday is disenfranchising Obi in whatever political party he goes. Is Obi not Southern enough to contest against him?

DoTheNeedful:
Implosion is better than not being on the ballot. ADC will not be on the ballot next year. Mark this!

Then Tinubi will have rolled back all the advantages that a three-horse race bestows on him. Obidients should be careful with their messaging and how they throw invectives at Atiku. They might still need to rely on his voting bloc.

DoTheNeedful:
Without Obi, Atiku can never be president. Obi's and Kwankwaso's exit from ADC is a big blow. Those two added a lot of steam to ADC. I don't see anything that can excite anyone about an 80-year-old Atiku.

Besides, ADC have many serious legal landmines ahead of them. They would need a lot of luck to scale through unscathed. Any serious politician with ambition would not stay in ADC any longer.

I strongly believe that the David Mark's faction will not be on ballot next year. Heaven will not fall! It would have been different if all the major opposition leaders like Obi, Atiku, Amaechi and Kwankwaso were united in ADC. Taking ADC out of ballot in such scenario would be difficult. With Obi and Kwankwaso out and forming a strong opposition, ADC can be dealt with without much resistance from the public.

I see Obi vs Tinubu contest next year.

If Tinubu takes ADC out of the election, he would have shot himself in the foot. The anger will make the North vote Obi/Kwankwaso enmass.

Most of Akume's men already defected from the APC. Will they come back? The rift between Akume and Alia is not the kind that can be settled with mere presidential directive and press statement. It goes deeper than that.

Pantami just rejected the consensus candidate chosen in Gombe and is set to head to court. Adelabu has done same in Oyo and IG in Nassarawa. In Kano, Abba has denied Barau, Ado Doguwa, Kawu Samaila, and others return tickets. The implosion is inevitable.

Sen. Tanko Al-makure has a right to his opinion, but he has no right on other things he doesn’t know, even if he gave birth to me. If I decide to go and brief President Tinubu with a prepared candidate, and I didn't carry Sen. Almakure along, that is not his right.

- Gov. Sule… pic.twitter.com/wGWt7ywBkp

— Imran Muhammad (@Imranmuhdz) May 3, 2026

SuperEagles:
Just rhe way Peter Obi will not be able to get 10% in any Northern state as Atiku remain his only pathway to victory in the North This is why stated earlier that we have LUNATICS as opposition leaders.

These fools know they need to work together to have any chance of victory but the fools can not drop their silly ego to make that happen.

So if Obi wins the Southeast and Southsouth in a landslide like he's now set to do and Atiku wins the North with better margins than he did in 2023, where will Tinubu's votes come from?

Here we go again with the low self-esteem from Tinubu's lackeys. Stalking people on Twitter and bandying the word "ally" about. Elrufai already told us in an interview 8 months ago that the 2023 elections will be a three-horse race and will go into a run-off. It's fast becoming a reality. Seunmsg, if Tinubu goes ahead with Shettima, he will lose the Christian votes/middlebelt votes to Obi. Do not underestimate Tinubu's unpopularity amongst the masses.

Like we said, Obi's base from 2023 is already balkanized.

Bentacur007:
Kwankwaso is a coward too
SMH
Make you na shift

Before Kwankwaso moved to join ADC after having series of meetings with Tinubu, he suddenly had a quarrel with his godson who decamped to APC and was handed over the party structure. Same godson is now retiring strong politicians like deputy Senate President Barau, Ado Doguwa, Kawu Samaila, etc (who all have issues with Kwankwaso), by denying them return tickets. Same Kwankwaso who refused to deputise Obi in 2023 has now agreed to do so and has convinced Obi away from a coalition that was fast gaining momentum against Tinubu.

By the time the Southeast realise that they have been played, the train would have long left the station.

Obiedun:
Until obi returns to APGA he can't be successful politically. He will just be moving upandan. No success. May we not labour in vain. That curse is still working against him

Hmmmm.

PETER OBI lacks character. Lol 😆 a man that can't keep to his word.. Sorry ADC. I saw this coming.

pic.twitter.com/4l7z8U0F3K

— Emma ik Umeh (Tcee )🇳🇬 (@emmaikumeh) May 3, 2026

AsomughaChuks02:
Peter Obi will not get the kind of votes he got in 2023 in the south east. The enthusiasm for him is no longer there. Don't be sucked into the imaginary world of his social media fans.

This fact is clear. Obi will be shocked with the fewer number of votes he will get this time in the East and even the Northcentral. He might have enjoyed the thrill but he underestimates people's desire to not do the same thing twice and expect a different outcome. A sizable number of Southerners wanted him to stick with the coalition and are utterly disappointed.

seunmsg:
I am not really a Christian. I only identify as one if I have an official form to feel and there is no better option available. Aminda is my friend irrespective of our political differences. He's just a bit delusional with his understanding of politics. He's a cool guy so I will be easy on him. These are trying time for everyone in the Atiku camp. 😂.

Politics is not an emotional sport. Only the naïve create enemies of themselves over the political ambitions of politicians. Having said that, we will watch to see what a three-horse race will bring. A lot will still depend on whether or not Seyi Makinde will be joining the ADC. From a pragmatic point of view, it will serve the Southeast more to fully back Tinubu's candidacy in 2027 in order to have a stake in future negotiations. With Obi's move, he has effectively taken his region out of the conversation and potentially set them back a few years.

Igbophobia:
That's a misconception. Obi has always stated that his anti-corruption, anti-established-pattern stance, knowing how corrupt Nigeria's electoral system is. The corruption in which folks like Tinubu and Atiku thrive on. So you want him to sit tight in LP while the government engender crisis within or sit tight with ADC which Atiku would likely buy over with dollar? Nah... I rather think Obi is learning the hard way that dismantling the network of corruption that has held the country at stangleholds for decades would take a more daring approach. The question is: would he go all the way knowing that those benefiting from the status quo won't back him? Would the masses go all the way with him? I am sure of the latter but the former? Not sure.

In any case, I think the people would rather go with him than any other politician alive today. Will the establishment stop him the way they stopped Aminu Kano, the only other politician I know that the masses truly rooted for? Perhaps.

Outplayed excuses. How would Atiku buy the direct primaries when you can vote for Obi yourself? Will you send your account to him so he can buy your vote with dollars? In any case, what if Kwankwaso insists on primaries in the new party? Obi will port again, not so?

Igbophobia:
Well... the guy says he isn't desperate to be president. If he loses, Nigeria loses, not just him. That's obvious to all discerning mind. At least we know that neither Tinubu nor Atiku has what it takes to lift the country out of doldrum.

Nevertheless, I think Obi is rather casual about this presidency thing. I thought he and the Obidient movement would have started working on 1) Electoral reform by exerting the right pressure from 2023.
2) Working on grassroot mobilization to ensure that party agents would be on ground no matter the party he contests on their ticket/

I sincerly hope they somehow have that on ground because many Nigerians wouldn't want to vote him and have their votes swapped for Tinubu or Atiku like they did in 2023.

Here we go again with the self-righteous politics. "If he loses, Nigeria loses indeed." He is beginning to earn a reputation as someone who cannot keep his own word. No matter how you try to sell his candidacy as sainthood, he has now left two political parties at the brink after pledging loyalty, all just to run from primaries. That alone shows desperation but go on.

Igbophobia:
Look at the bolded. We all know that AMINDA people and others like Wike and Oshiomole took advantage of LP's lack of agents to rig for Tinubu. It is obvious that Obi won the election. It's PDPs loss that they couldn't take advantage of his popularity to unsit APC.

I hope he now has contingency plans in place to have polling agents in all polling units in his new party?

Basic123:
I am curious about why you dont blame this on Tinubu

If the Labour party, PDP, NNPP and several others have been allowed to thrive by Tinubu, would Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso have any reasons to be leaving their 2023 platforms? Of course we blame Tinubu. Only the naïve or the deliberately obtuse would claim not to see his efforts in undermining our democracy.

SonOfDSoil01:
😂😂😂 see question, bikonu who’s is obi in the south, aside from his 5plot of land region, which other state he is going to win if the election takes place today? Pls be sincere with yourself and answer my question? You must be delusional if you think Lagos will be up for grab for him again and the SS governors are all in Apc now and will deliver their region, while in the NC Tinubu will also win and fews states in NW and NE and also getting the constitutionally required 25% in 24 state of the federation……like i said in the previous thread, put you money where your mouth is and place a bet on Atiku if you still believe he will defeat Tinubu and leave cho Cho Cho for sissies

Okay, it's the governors that will now deliver Tinubu, not the people? Noted. Please tell us what party Sanwo-olu and Tinubu was when Obi defeated him in Lagos? What party were the governors of Imo, Ebonyi, Cross Rivers, etc? Why didn't they deliver their states to Tinubu? Lessons!

SonOfDSoil01:
how can image the pains you going through right now, knowing Atiku’s chances of becoming president is now getting slimmer and reality is now settling in……las las Una the delulu go clear for Una eyes😂😂

Can Tinubu now defeat Obi in the South or he will still be relying on Northern votes?

We wish Obi well in his new destination. All we are asking for is for democracy to be let to thrive in the country. Every politician is at liberty to pursue their individual aspirations. The ADC was clear to him from the get-go. He chose to join notwithstanding and is now free to leave. It's a political party, not a cult.

We wish them well in their new destination. All we are asking for is for democracy to be let to thrive in the country. Every politician is at liberty to pursue their individual aspirations. But they should both watch out for landmines in their new party.

Smh. Is it not obvious to the blind that Obi won Rivers? An entire region playing kindergarten politics. Pyrrhic victories are nothing to celebrate. Obi won the entire Southeast with over 95% of the votes and the rest of the South, including Lagos but he didn't win the general election. The reason was simple. Northerners gave Tinubu 5.6m votes to overturn Obi's advantage. The Northerners did so not because Tinubu had a handsome face. Far from it. They did so to honour an earlier pact and return a favour to Tinubu for having supported Buhari against Jonathan in 2015.

Fastforward to 2027, and Easterners are demanding for Obi to be handed over the ticket of a newly formed coalition. The question Northerners are asking is simple, what's in it for them? Why should they support Obi over Atiku? Or Obi over Tinubu.

No one lured Obi to ADC. He was told from the get-go that zoning was not on the table. If indeed he was lured by Atiku, then it begs the question, does he really have what it takes to govern the country? If I'm an Atiku’s boy, you must be Peter Obi's boy too. Smh.

Igbophobia:
You don't get it: nepotism is nepotism whether Buhari was appointing his Muslim friends in the north or Tinubu appointing his Yoruba croonies in the SW. The fact is that Nigeria was three regions at Independence. Tinubu, a Yoruba man is nepotistically aligned to the SW, while Buhari is nepotistically aligned to the north. At independence, there were the north, the southwest and the eastern regions. And bigoted leaders like Buhari and Tinubu would naturally alienate others they feel are not theirs. That's why the PDP era was Nigeria's golden democratic era when at least, there were no bigots piloting the affairs of the country.

By the way, wasn't Atiku you're now parroting among those that brought in Buhari, and consequently, Tinubu, the two ethnic bigots who have brought the country this low? Why would any sane person support Atiku? He simply has a poor sense of judgment just like you and Kperogi, and any other person blinded by ethnic and religious considerations in choosing a leader.

Nigeria is going down the drain because there are more people like you chaps than there are people with balanced sense of reasoning in the country.

If Nigeria was three regions at amalgamation, why then do you say it's Southern turn instead of coming out bold to say it's the turn of the Southeast. We have no problems with a Southeasterner becoming president but power is not demanded for. You either play the politics like the two other regions are doing to get it or you step aside.

IamPatriotic:
Don't you think the person you replied has valid points?
Regardless who Atiku picks as his Vice in 2027, he can't defeat Tinubu in Plateau, Benue and Kwara State. Also in Southern Taraba, and Southern Kaduna... the odds in is favour of Tinubu.

Yet, I wonder why Tinubu seems afraid of an election. His Attorney General just instituted a case in court to deregister the ADC, after all the attempts to destroy other parties and disenfranchise major opposition candidates. Why can't he be bold enough and test this theory of yours on the ballot?

Igbophobia:
I wonder how some of you reason. Did you complain when Buhari did exactly the same tribalism? This is actually what the dumb professor wrote in the OP.

By the way, I wonder why Nairaland keeps promoting the dumb professor from the north. A man who supported Buhari's candidacy cannot rightly be said to have a good sense of judgment. I'm sure even you, AMINDA, who is now trying to lecture us supported Buhari because of tribe and religion and region as you've been hyping. It simply means that you're not different fro Kperogi or whatever he is called - your sense of judgment is skewed. Know this and stop disturbing us southerners with your nonsense northern propaganda.

Only a southerner who lacks sense of judgment would vote Atiku. For starters, he's not better than Tinubu. So the only sensible thing you have written is "If you guys won't back Obi by prevailing on Atiku to stand down, Tinubu should continue". Period.

Buhari was accused of nepotism in favour of the North, not tribalism. Buhari’s appointments cut across from Borno to Niger and from Kogi to Adamawa. In return, the entire North voted for him again in his second term. Can other non-Yoruba speaking tribes in the South say the same about Tinubu? Will he now win more states in the other South aside from his Yoruba states?

seunmsg:
You are as confused as Atiku's Presidential ambition. You don't even know if you want to argue that Kwara and Kogi are not Yoruba states or the Yorubas in those states are being favored. Whether you call it north central or middle belt, it is a fact that Tinubu won four states in the region and Obi won two. Atiku did not win a single state in the region. In 2027, Tinubu will win at least five states in the region in a three horse race.

As far Rivers, the result is there for everyone to see. Tinubu cleared Rivers states and the same thing will be repeated with a bigger margin in 2027. As for Akwa Ibom and Osun, Atiku will not get 5%. If fact, the result of the ADC registration in all southern states should be a pointer to the acceptability of the party in the south. Even in Peter Obi's Anambra state, they can't even get up to 10,000 people to register🤣🤣

What is this "the region" that you keep talking about? Do you mean NORTHcentral? How many states did Tinubu win in the SOUTH as a Southern candidate that he now claims to be, aside from the 4 Yoruba states? Don't deflect. Why then are you hyperventilating when I say the North made Tinubu president. Obi mopped the floor with him in the South.

If this were true, he wouldn't decriminalise certificate forgery and age falsification in the electoral act.

seunmsg:
Talking about Yoruba states, Tinubu won Kwara and Kogi. Kwara is a majority Yoruba state while an entire senatorial district in Kogi state is Yoruba. And talking about the south, Tinubu won Rivers state in addition to the four south west states. Overall, he won 12 states. 9 out of the 12 were from the south and middle belt. He only won 3 states in the north. So, stop misrepresenting facts about the 2023.

The core is North West and east. Stop muddling votes from the middle belt with that of the core north. Again, the entire country is the constituency of Mr president, that's why he got a good spread in all the states. Atiku doesn't even have the popularity of Buhari. Yet, Buhari could not become president till Tinubu from the south helped him out. So, stop the empty arrogance and threat to the south east. Atiku will never become president with votes from North East and west only.

Lol. Kogi and Kwara are now Yoruba states? No wonder Tinubu has channelled every appointment meant for the Northcentral to Yorubas in those states. Yet he wonders why he's been accused of tribalism. Even the other regions of the South are marginalised, hence why Tinubu's quest to build a "Southern conscensus" is failing. There's no "middlebelt" as a geographic region. There's only Northcentral. In 2023, the Northern Christians who mostly identify as middlebelt voted Obi. No matter how you turn facts on it's head, Tinubu lost Lagos and Osun and never won Rivers. The North made him President.

Misterone:
Oga, stop talking nonsense! Did you carry out a poll to know if Tinubu lost the North or South or whatever? You're just spewing trash as usual!

I have proceeded to block the object I just quoted.

lapintoz:
Can someone confirm that AMINDA's account has not been hacked......that you actually wrote this.......

Anyway, in politics, no permanent friends, enemies, or position, only permanent interest.

This is very well noted.

You will be surprised that a lot of Tinubu's critics today from the North actually spent money to campaign for his election in 2023. Tinubu lost Northern goodwill, beginning from his betrayal and persecution of Elrufai and how subsequent actions of his showed that he was out to "deal with the North". It was an unnecessary gaffe, unless he has other ulterior motives. The North voted him in 2023 and would have done the same enmass in 2027. A smarter strategist would have waited and showed his hands after winning re-election.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

Parachoko:
I don't know why you keep on spreading this falsehood

The north didn't make Asiwaju the President.

Only the North can't make someone the president, if it's possible, Buhari would have win in 2007 or 2011

You can continue to quarrel with the numbers but facts are stubborn. Tinubu won only 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. Was it his votes from those 4 states that made him president? Buhari won his region in a landslide but needed that push from the Southwest to meet the constitutional spread. Tinubu lost Lagos and Osun and had over two times more votes in the North than he did in the South. The North did that because the North remembers. He won and immediately betrayed his helpers like Elrufai, locking him up and posturing like he's out to teach the North a lesson. Well, good or bad, Northerners always pay their debts.

mrvitalis:
Because it was the turn of the North

How would you feel if Wike is running and demanding ticket in 2031 ?

Or Obi telling Opposition he must run in 2031 when it's clearly turn of the North?

I would feel nothing. Wike has no pact with the North, except perhaps in his party. When Elrufai advocated for support for Tinubu in the North, he rallied his fellow Northern APC governors for power to rotate to the South after 8 years of Buhari in the APC. Did you see Elrufai rallying PDP governors like Bala Mohammed to support Tinubu? Zoning is a party affair. That is exactly why Atiku won your state Akwa Ibom, won Bayelsa and won Osun after 8 years of Buhari. I do not expect this to be hard for you to comprehend. Despite the North giving Tinubu 5.6m votes, Atiku also had 6.9m votes mostly from the North. Not even Tinubu was expecting ALL Northerners to vote for him in 2023. He can't be that naïve.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

benardtotti:
Oga stop threatening the south east ,you Northerners have held power longest in this federation yet your region is the most backward in all data and stats.

Every 4 years s northerner must rise up to contest ticket ,no respect for other regions .
The pdp had a gentleman agreement of zoning as its policy , atiku came and scattered it.

You guys will not taste power till 2031 and if you vex us even more in the south we will elongate southern rule beyond 2031.

When did Yorubas become unity beggars? If you want to beg the Southeast for support, do so properly and tell Tinubu to make his government inclusive.

There are no other factions in the PDP. The Supreme Court was clear and unambiguous. The Makinde-allied group are the only authentic PDP recognised in the country. It wasn't a coincidence that Wike quickly organised a media conference immediately after the Supreme Court verdict. He never did so in the past.