₦airaland Forum

Akpakomiza2:
He lost it because he failed colossally in the other 4 regions. You are making the same mistake obidients make. They thought Tinubu, kwankwaso and atiku will share core north votes making it useless but they forgot that of Obi does not score significant votes in the core north, it will affect his overall tally. For instance Atiku got 288k in sokoto, Tinubu got 285k while obi got 5k. Obi lost but this damaged obi. This Tinubu vote in sokoto cancelled obi's winning in Ebonyi. Across the 17 southern states, Atiku will lose colossally. Any state Tinubu loses, he will trash Atiku there( Atiku will come a distant third) which will offset Atiku vote in a core northern state. For instance Tinubu lost Lagos but beat Atiku there by over 400k. This cancelled atiku winning in Adamawa and Kaduna. Atiku highest margin was in Adamawa yet tinubu got 25% there. Can you see how Tinubu is strong and how useless your Atiku is? Tinubu got 25% in all the 19 northern states. Infact Tinubu is beating atiku in the 6 north central states. This margin is insurmountable....

In summary, presidential elections is about margins and spread not number of states victories. Tinubu looks at the margins. No matter the votes Atiku gets in the core northern 11 states, it will never be up to the one buhari got in 2011 and 2003. Infact, Atiku can't win all the 11 core north states, Tinubu is sure if winning zamfara and Borno and perhaps sokoto, Jigawa. He will still trash Atiku in Kano. There is no pathway for Atiku except he finds a way like buhari to win north central

Maybe you should look at the 2023 numbers again. I just told you the North went all out to vote Tinubu in that election. The atmosphere heading into 2023 is no longer the same. If Tinubu fails to win the South in a landslide and scrap margins from the North like other previous Southern presidents did in the past, he will not get the highest number of votes cast. Atiku will. Tinubu will get the spread but may not get the highest votes. Atiku will get the highest votes cast but may not get the spread. This will then throw the election into a run-off. With rumours of Jonathan entering the race, Tinubu's chances are further complicated.

Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu has gotten more popular in north central. Nothing has changed in core north. If a whole Buhari couldn't win with just north east and north west, Small Atiku cannot sir. There is no pathway for Atiku.

Buhari couldn't win because it was always a two-horse race with his opponents always winning the entire South and Christian North/Middlebelt. With a three-horse race, Tinubu won with the lowest margin of votes ever and 65% of those votes had to come from the North. He lost the entire South, including Lagos, and won in only 4 Southwestern states. With Obi in the race, Tinubu still can't lay claim to the Southern votes as at today. If he repeats the muslim-muslim ticket, a substantial part of the middlebelt will still prefer to vote Obi. So where will his bloc votes come from?

Akpakomiza2:
That low votes Atiku got in the south is why he lost and will still lost. Tinubu getting votes from both north and south is why he won. Tinubu doesn't necessarily need to win anywhere but to get significant votes. Tinubu might have gotten weaker in some areas while getting stronger in other areas. Atiku has gotten weaker overall

With low votes in the South, Tinubu's margins over Atiku was less than 1.5m. This was in 2023 when Northerners actually campaigned with their full might for Tinubu against their son, Atiku. You didn't answer the question. Has Tinubu gotten more popular in the North? If he hasn't, who has he lost part of his Northern votes to? Atiku came a close second without Southern votes, Tinubu got 65% of his total votes from the North. Do the maths.

Akpakomiza2:
Atiku cannot get the highest votes as far as he fails woefully in NC and south. Tinubu will get significant votes in the core north. 50% of obidients would reluctantly vote Atiku, they despise Tinubu

How many votes did Atiku get in the South in 2023? In your view, can Tinubu get all his 5.6m Northern votes that he got in 2023? If not, who will those lost voters be voting for? Take away the money induced governors, has Tinubu gotten more popular or less popular among the electorates than he was in 2023?

Akpakomiza2:
To Atiku's detriment sir. As far as obi doesn't align with Atiku, Tinubu wins. Tinubu will get votes from the south and north, atiku is only restricted to his core north. No pathway down south

Would Obidients have voted Atiku with Obi as Vice? Tinubu won only 4 states out of 17 Southern states in 2023. He only became president due to the 5.6m votes he got in the North. If 2023 repeats itself, Atiku will score the highest votes cast. Even if he doesn't get the spread on first ballot (he might), the elections will go into a run-off.

Akpakomiza2:
While your ADC is imploding

To Tinubu's detriment. This means he can no longer campaign with "turn of the South". With Obi leaving the ADC, he now shares Tinubu's Southern votes with him and will most likely come out on top in the South. The question is, will the North come through for Tinubu in 2027 like they came through for him in 2023 when Obi mopped the floor with him across the South (including Lagos)?

Wike may be using blackmail to keep the judges in his corner afterall.

But Oshiomole was in the Senate and kept mum when Tinubu began walking back and altering many legislations, especially in the electoral act to give himself an advantage. E.g, decriminalising certificate forgery and age falsification as grounds for disqualification, eliminating indirect primaries and giving governors leeway to handpick candidates, etc. This is why a president must lead by example with integrity. Since the head is doing it, others slightly below the chain are also beginning to feel entitled.

Ojoro cancel ojoro. The implosion of APC is inevitable.

Tinubu is decriminalising certificate forgery and age falsification in the electoral act to remove all obstacles for his own interest but Oshiomole is now surprised Akpabio is trying to do the same? When you ride on the back of a tiger, you may end up in its belly.

jmoore:
Who is he consulting?

A man that has never criticized Tinubu's government means he has given Tinubu a pass mark.

Since 2023 Tinubu entered and increased inflation, poverty, etc. But Jonathan has never spoken against the hardship.
So what exactly is he coming to do? Did Tinubu invite him to APC so Tinubu will step down and APC will give Jonathan the presidential ticket?

You people should slow down. Otherwise, if Jonathan ends up not contesting, you would have alienated yourself from the Southsouth bloc you were hoping on. What is demeaning or embarrassing in contesting for the number one position in the country. John Mahama and even Trump lost and made a comeback. Why can't Jonathan?

iwaeda:
Just mentioned you want to contest against Tinubu, case file will open for you.

A scared dictator wannabe.

Lol. The pressure is getting werser. Tinubu is scared. It was the dread of the Jonathan/Kwankwaso ticket under PDP that made him quickly sack Ganduje as demanded by Kwankwaso to prevent his defection. But he failed to follow through by giving Kwankwaso the VP slot.

seunmsg:
You Obidients are never beating the allegation. Tinubu seems to be tormenting you everywhere.

Aminda has been tagging me to every Jonathan thread while claiming he will take Tinubu’s southern votes away. You’re here on another thread accusing Tinubu and APC of sponsoring Jonathan’s so called entrance into the 2027 race.

So, which one should I address. You guys in the opposition should pls align your thoughts and put forward a single argument for my response in respect of this matter 🤣🤣🤣

Continue to feign laughter while your NADECO masters are in panic mode. Tinubu lives in morbid fear of the Jonathan/Kwankwaso ticket.

Tinubu just inadvertently sent a clear signal that Akpabio will not be returning as Senate President. This may reduce the enthusiasm of Akwa-ibomites to deliver Tinubu in Akwa-ibom state. Like we say, with Tinubu, no good deed goes unpunished.

Mitsurugi:
You and I know there are nothing like primaries in any major party in Nigeria. What we have is dollar rain.

Noted but I think Obi has more to worry about than dollar rain. A faction of the obidient movement just expelled Obi and Yunusa. Tinubu has isolated Obi to continue his onslaught against him. He should never have left the protective custody of the herd.

BREAKING....

2027 POLLS: OBIDIENT MOVEMENT REBRANDS, SACKS PETER OBI, YUNUSA

Lol 😆

pic.twitter.com/1u5wIwZlxP

— Emma ik Umeh (Tcee )🇳🇬 (@emmaikumeh) May 7, 2026

benardtotti:
Never knew the day would come when you and I will be on the same page of opinion.

Well, welcome to the light.

iwaeda:
Where will brother Peter go now?

That dragging of the NDC card and cap by Kwankwaso from Peter Obi’s hands is beginning to make sense.

Eriokanmi:
Jonathan won't contest. Take a chill pill. You think you know better than Obi right? Smh

Is that a prayer point or a statement of fact? Why shouldn't he? Is he not Southern enough? You don't know if he would contest or not. Bold of you to assume he had no premonition of the crowd that gathered at his residence today.

aworatak:
As expected.
I knew it will be difficult for Uba Sani to offer a return ticket to the son of his arch rival.

Correction, his mentor whom he betrayed. I see Uba Sani moving sycophantically around Tinubu today but he would betray Tinubu if he gets half a chance. Even Tinubu is aware but he's useful for now.

Obidients ate hyperventilating on this thread. Obi might have just defected himself out of the equation. He was too eager and was not strategic. Kwankwaso is in the NDC in anticipation for a Jonathan/Kwankwaso ticket.

maestroferddi:
He knows he will fail woefully if he decides to throw his hat to the ring.

Let him try it ...Na body go tell am.

Well, the same can be said of Obi too. It won't be the end of the world but his chances are stronger than Obi's. I'm sorry.

Oga, you don't need to lie. Needless lies like these were why Germany rejected you in the first place.

maestroferddi:
You dey fall your own hand.

You know very well that Jonathan will not be running in 2027 so why are you spreading falsehood.

In any case, if Jonathan feels he wants to run, he is welcome to the ring.
If he decides to risk his pedigree on a wild goose chase,..

I know he will not go that route...

What pedigree? Being a sitting president is of higher pedigree than being a statesman. If it isn't, tell Obi to retire and become a statesman. He's eminently qualified to be one.

casualobserver:
Jonathan cannot contest. The constitution has disqualified him. It says a lot about our youths. Now you understand the Moniepoint CEO.

Throwing shades at those more intellectually superior than you. Jonathan is qualified to contest as the law cannot be applied retroactively.

Streetinvestor2:
For being stupid to hand power to apc/Buhari. I don't understand
That has caused the country so much pain,killings and hunger. I will never vote him
He is a weak man

But Obi is strong for running away from mere primaries abi? Well, he who lives to run away, lives to fight another day. You are only against Jonathan's candidacy because you fear for what it will do to Obi's ambition. It may have been Jonathan/Kwankwaso all along. Dickson is Jonathan's man, any day, anytime.

anonimi:
Why do you think Tinubu will allow Jonathan and Kwankwaso threaten his reelection

If it happens, it wouldn't be because Tinubu allowed it. It will be because he could do nothing about it.

Counterigbolies:
so u are beginning to see reality now right?

Your obi will b highly stranded in 2027 election

So will Tinubu. Northerners will absolutely back a Jonathan/Kwankwaso ticket. So will the South, and also the Northcentral.

Goodluck is coming!

“I will consider running for 2027 elections, I will consult widely”

— former President Goodluck Jonathan

🤣🤣🤣🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/sY26xTpM8c

— Abdul Rasheeth (@Rasheethe) May 7, 2026

/mediaViewer?currentTweet=2052339841191276747&currentTweetUser=Rasheethe

The NDC is a Special Purpose Vehicle created by Seriake Dickson for Jonathan's ambition. It's looking likely to be Jonathan/Kwankwaso than the OK Obidients have been promoting. Why did Dickson deceive Obi away from the ADC?

Just In: Goodluck Jonathan comes out to address Nigerians about his 2027 decision! Get in! pic.twitter.com/kbfOod0eoK

— Premier (@SodiqTade) May 7, 2026

Lol. Unless Obi decamps again, he might not be on the ballot. Jonathan is currently addressing supporters at his Maitama residence.

Former President Goodluck Jonathan set to join the NDC on a single 4Yr-term agreement. He is expected to participate in the party primary.

Lol 😆 pic.twitter.com/SJW1q0zdBJ

— Emma ik Umeh (Tcee )🇳🇬 (@emmaikumeh) May 7, 2026

Content creator. Anyanwu remains suspended. He and his co-travellers can keep monkeying themselves.

Well, Obi will likely increase his tally to six because he may be moving again. The NDC is a Special Purpose Vehicle created by Seriake Dickson for Jonathan's ambition. It's looking likely to be Jonathan/Kwankwaso than the OK Obidients have been promoting. Jonathan is currently addressing supporters at his Maitama residence.

Just In: Goodluck Jonathan comes out to address Nigerians about his 2027 decision! Get in! pic.twitter.com/kbfOod0eoK

— Premier (@SodiqTade) May 7, 2026