₦airaland Forum

DeLaRue:
You're already baking in Adeleke victory into your calculations. You also assume that the Presidential election in the SW will be conducted in a free and fair manner.

1. My suspicion is that APC will take Mr Adeleke's promise of support with a pinch of salt. The likes of Mr Tinubu and Osun APC are too experienced to believe an opposition Governor.

2. Following from 1, APC will do everything possible to win Osun Governorship. I fear that election will be very violent, or there will be so much military and other forces deployed that many opposition voters will be too intimidated to come out to vote. Just speculation. I could be wrong.

Thank you for alluding to how unpopular Tinubu is in Osun and indeed other parts of the Southwest. If he has to resort to rigging, violence and intimidation in his own state of origin in order to win, then I have nothing else to add. Even the most ardent Tinubu supporter always end up admitting that Tinubu will only win if he rigs the election. Well, rigging has its limitations. If Tinubu forcefully rigs Adeleke out, the people will revolt against him with their votes in the presidential elections.

DeLaRue:
My brother, Mr Tinubu was not President then, and it wasn't Mr Atiku that won the Osun votes, it was PDP as a party, and a PDP Governor. The 2027 scenario will be different.

Please see the new addition to my last comment.

Yorubas are quiet now (as they tend to do in these situations), but no group in Nigeria wants a President from their region humiliated out of office. That's just the reality.

You practically just saw the other bloc of the PDP pledging to field a single presidential candidate at the Ibadan Declaration and you think the PDP structure is dead? PDP remains intact in Osun (forget the false posture of Adeleke promising to support Tinubu), Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Remember how the deputy governor of Bayelsa refused to decamp until he "died" under mysterious circumstances. The recent supreme court judgement seeming to give a lifeline to the PDP might be the ruling party's tactic to forestall the Makinde PDP aligning with the ADC.

If the Yorubas resort to tribalism and vilification of the Fulanis as an election winning strategy, it will only make Tinubu's loss more woeful, especially in the North. Tinubu won with 5.6m votes from the Hausa/Fulanis. The same will be the case in the South if the SW whips up ethnic sentiments against the Igbos in states like Lagos. Tinubu is already more unpopular now than in 2023 when he was an untested candidate and had the benefit of doubt.

Same Osun where Tinubu is withholding Local government allocations? Lol. Time is a gentleman.

DeLaRue:
You are right that Mr Atiku will likely increase his vote counts in the North.

But as you know, that alone will not secure him the Presidency. He needs to meet the 25% requirement in 24 states. That's a massive ask, because without Mr Obi, ADC doesn't really have any Southern politician that can help ADC in the South. That's a big weakness for Mr Atiku.

I speculate that Mr Makinde will not deliver 25% of votes in Oyo fir ADC, even though ADC may do much better in the Governorship election in that State.

Atiku contested after 8 years of Buhari and won Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Make of that what you will. Seyi Makinde as VP will deliver 25% of the votes in Ibadan. Tinubu may have lost Oyo if Makinde supported Atiku in 2023. Seyi was fully on ground. Most of Obi's Southwestern supporters who are disillusioned with Tinubu will also now vote an Atiku with Seyi as Vice. Tinubu will not win the Southwest in a landslide no matter what any of his supporters say. We know this as a fact.

Willy2025:
There is no credible organised opposition to the 2nd term of Tinubu. Our philosophy in Yorubaland is that we don't vilify our son whether good or bad. Omo Eni o le buru, ki a fi fun ekun je (you cannot feed your son to a tiger because he is a bad boy). If a boy fails in Yorubaland, you simply ask him to repeat the class. If you are saying that Tinubu has failed (though he is doing exceptionally well), then he must be allowed to repeat the presidency. Afterall, he said EMILOKAN
It is still the turn of the Yorubas, so Obi et al. should wait for their turn. You see this 2027, it is either snatch or grab. Una go learn in what way again?

Why did your son lose in Lagos that he governed for 8 years and resides in and in Osun, his state of origin? Do you think your son is currently President because of your votes?

DeLaRue:
This may not be a direct response to your post, but I suspect that once all parties have gone through their primaries, and Mr Obi is in NDC, the court cases against ADC will slowly ebb away.

By then, APC will have achieved their aim of ensuring Mr Atiku and Mr Obi are not ADC's Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates.
This combination was the most dangerous for APC.

If Mr Obi ends up in NDC, then the most likely outcome is an APC victory or a rerun between the President and Mr Atiku.

Mr Obi pulling away from ADC is a catastrophic outcome for Mr Atiku because that will wipe him out of the entire South, as I can't think of any state where ADC can/will be allowed to win 25% of the votes.

Can anyone think of a Southern state where that can happen without Mr Obi in the ADC? I can't.

If Mr Atiku doesn't win 25% of votes in a single Southern state, he can't be declared a winner even if he wins more votes overall than Mr Tinubu.

Mr Atiku's best shot is a rerun.

In 2023, he ran against the tide and met the threshold in about 20 states. He was only 4 states short. With a Seyi Makinde as Vice for example, he just might meet the threshold at first ballot. Also, Atiku will get the highest votes at first ballot in all permutations.

The ADC has no legal case against it that can stick. These are just delay tactics by the ruling party. In any case, Tinubu would have sabotaged himself if the ADC fails to be on the ballot and the NDC is.

DeLaRue:
Hmm, the scale of the 'strangulation' is unlikely to be as catastrophic as you postulate.

Damaging in the South East, yes, but with all SE Governors appearing to support Mr Tinubu, he will do a lot better than last year in that region. And the critical factor is for him to get 25% of the votes in say, 3 SE states. I think the Governors will deliver that.

I speculate that there'll be a complete wipeout of Mr Obi's 2023 votes in the SW, by whatever means APC finds necessary. It will be APC top to bottom, including Oyo.

There are APC Governors in the SS that will do whatever is necessary to ensure NDC doesn't do well in many SS states.

It's even easier for a keen Governor to facilitate rigging under the new Electoral law. So, expect a lot of rigging, and with NDC not having any Governor, I suspect the party will only do well in its likely stronghold - the SE.

You overestimate the influence of governors. In 2023, no governor in the Southeast supported Obi. Ikpeazu and Ungwanyi were members of the G5 who supported Tinubu while Soludo's letter asking Obi to step down is well documented. Umahi and Uzodinma were APC members and they supported Tinubu. In clear terms, all governors of the Southeast supported Tinubu but he lost the region in a landslide. Ditto the Southsouth but for the brazen rigging of Rivers by Wike. Okowa was VP candidate and an incumbent governor but he couldn't deliver his state.

You are right, Obi will no surpass his 2023 numbers in all 3 regions of the South and in the middlebelt, but it will be as a result of voter fatigue. He over-exaggerates people's willingness to go queue up in the sun again to vote for him when they know he wouldn't stand a chance.

At least, half of Southeasterners also want Obi to stay back in the ADC and fight, and to support the winner if he loses. Obi's base is therefore balkanized even if he moves. These are some of the factors that will stall his chances.

IamPatriotic:
The three are differently guilty of not being a oppositions, Atiku and Kwankwaso should have respected the gentlemen rotation arrangements between the North and the South, while Obi should have remained in Labour Party, rather than moving to ADC

Agreements on zoning are internal matters of political parties, not constitutional. Anyone with political ambition that feels his interest is not well served in a political party should be allowed to leave. This is democracy. There is no zoning in the ADC. It was made clear to Obi from the get-go, but he chose to join, nonetheless.

Freshtruth:
Who ever convince Rabiu kwankwaso to agllin with Peter obi has done just raise Rabiu kwankwanso stake Nationwide. Obi spread is national and is gaining momentum even though obi fails to win next year election kwakwaso has automatically inherited the obedient movement ahead of 2031 presidential elections as the major opposition. By 2031 Atiku would had left the sence of politics and obi won't come out again by 2031 this is obi final shot at the presidency .
it will be Tinubu anointed candidate against kwankwaso the new face of opposition by 2031. Kwankwaso is a wise man for positioning himself for future reasons.

Yes, that's the strategy. Obi/Kwankwaso will strangle APC in the South but it will not get enough votes to win the general elections. If Atiku consolidates the Northern votes as he is set to do, he will have the most votes. He may or may not meet the spread at first ballot (depends on several factors including impact of his choice of VP and general momentum). Tinubu will meet the constitutional spread but will not get the largest votes at first ballot because he has lost his core Northern base. Kwankwaso may emerge as the biggest individual winner because he will consolidate his posture in the Southeast for his future political ambition (which is why some argue he may be working for Tinubu and that Abba Kabir's defection is a ruse). The Southeast, as a region, may take the greatest hit and suffer political setback, but some Easterners will argue that they don't need the presidency to thrive. In reality, they do. Regions play politics to win, long-term or short-term. Any region playing politics just to prove a point will end up with the short end of the stick.

Wickedtruths:
Will the North vote an Obi to come use another 8 years
Will the South vote an Atiku to come reduce the South's tenure to 4 years?
Will Northern politicians hoping on 2031 work for an Atiku in 2027 and erase their chances?

Tinubu also has power of incumbency and knows how to silence dissent.

Would you believe political talks are now being held without Elrufai's name popping up?

I also know of one despot who knew how to silent dissent. His name was Sani Abacha. Celebrating a president silencing dissent in a democracy shows how low you all have sunk. Elrufai made Tinubu president and vowed to unmake him. Out of panic and fear, Tinubu quickly moved to incarcerate him without bail on trumped up charges for a bailable offence. You celebrate it as master strategy, but we call it cowardice over here. Elrufai is just one man but be rest assured that whatever is done to Elrufai today will be retaliated in multiple folds. Time is a gentleman.

Tinubu is grossly unpopular and will fail in his quest to use the courts and other shady means to prevent opponents from facing him at the ballot. No civilian president ever resorted to this cowardly approach until (after Obasanjo"s quest for third term) until Tinubu came along. We are beginning to notice a pattern but be rest assured that he who thinks he's leading and has no one following is only taking a walk.

Sannisege:
Your Atiku that won the entire north, where is he today? If you northerners think you can use killings to defeat Tinubu, then there’s nothing wrong if Tinubu uses massive rigging to counter your plot.

Pathetic! A C-in-C? Was that what he used against Jonathan? Tell us more. Northerners actually made Tinubu president. He was resoundingly defeated by Obi across the entire South and Obi is set to do it again. I'm glad you know Tinubu has no pathway to re-election outside of rigging but rigging will be resisted.

angelboy01:
I'm not Obi nor am I kwankwaso. They know what's happening behind the scene than You and I. So if BAT decides to continue let him do so. Atiku is always there to scatter everything and let it scatter.

People who came to meet Atiku in the ADC are accusing him of scattering everything. Has Atiku complained to you? You came of your own volition and you are all free to leave. Nothing is scathered. We only hope Obidients are actually playing to win and not just to prove a point to Atiku. In 2023, the goal seemed to be about defeating Tinubu in Lagos. It seems 2027 will be about teaching Atiku a lesson. Funny lots.

Felabrity:
lmao, nothing like replicate

Obi base too solid, its even larger now.

Tinubu is ofcourse the common enemy

How many voters have Atiku lost compared to Tinubu and Obi and how many has he potentially gained. In 2023, the clamour for power to head South was spearheaded by several politicians, even from the North. Despite their handwork, Atiku got 7m votes. If the North who gave Tinubu 5.6m votes are now upset with Tinubu, where will a majority of these voters swing towards? Atiku, Obi or Tinubu? The only person who doesn’t want Obi on the ballot is Tinubu.

Felabrity:
I won't go into details but lets see how many votes Atiku will get under ADC in 2027 without PDP structure, when Peter Obi exit the coalition.

Infact few years from now, Kwankwaso movement will be bigger than Atiku, he is more smarter and calculative.

Lol. The coalition needs Obi to be on the ballot if Obidients are not going to support it but Obi should be more worried about being able to replicate his numbers in the South and the middlebelt. Take this seriously. Atiku is not Obi's opponent, Tinubu is. Do not make enemies out of a base that you may still have to rely upon.

Basic123:
Tinubu lost lagos,became the president and won all other positions for APC.
Tinubu lost lagos with just 10k votes.
Let see how you and your fellow criminals in you structure of criminality will win in Lagos and Osun in 2027..

All this your nairaland bizzy body will not safe your boss Atiku from his 5th disgraceful defeat in 2027

No. Tinubu lost Lagos and the entire South to Obi, winning only 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. He became president because the North bailed him out with 5.6m votes. He would have been toast.

Injera:
What you guys fail to understand is that Obis stock has gone down since 2023

Maybe, maybe not. When Southern electorates are faced between Obi and Tinubu, there's only one way many will go.

Basic123:


But couldnt use the strategy to deliver kaduna and so many APC senators and HOR that lost to PDP

He wasn't on the ballot. Tinubu was, yet he lost Lagos where he governed for 8 years and Osun, his state of origin. Lagosians went further to vote Sanwo-olu and other senators and HORs further proving that they were intentional about rejecting Tinubu. We know Tinubu is punishing the people of Osun for rejecting him by withholding their local government allocation despite a subsisting court order.

Way to go. Those Southern votes Tinubu thought he has prized away by singing "turn of the South" will be taken off his fingers. If Tinubu sabotages the ADC using the courts, Northerners will vote enmass for the Obi/Kwakwanso ticket. Nigerians are a proud people. We cannot all be subservient to one man.

opes:
So, what is the difference between this 3-man race (or even 4,lol) and the 2023 election? Kwankwaso will again act as a spoiler for Atiku. Remember, Tinubu was not the president in 2023, but he is now.

The difference will be the 5.6m Northern votes that Northerners gave Tinubu after Obi humiliated him in the South. It no longer exists.

Name one youth currently in leadership position that you can cite as an example worthy of emulation. We have nothing against him but I hope you are not going to count Peter Obi as a Youth too? Where are the Youths that won elections riding in Obi's wave? Have they not all decamped to the APC?

Gotocourt:
Ex Governor Nasir Elrufai said this on TV, I watched this 🙌. Tinubu knows it's game over 🤷🏿

Elrufai is him! He gave Tinubu the strategy that made him win. Tinubu has him locked up out of fear.

Akpakomiza2:
He can't have a decent performance in north central. He can win north east and west but won't sweep. He will have a disastrous outing down south. Tinubu will have more votes than him

But he had over a million votes in the NC in 2023 when the clamour for "turn of the South" was more stronger than now. He also got more votes overall in the Southwest than Peter Obi and actually won Osun state. This was despite the fact that he contested after 8 years of Buhari with a lot of Northerners like Elrufai opting to vote Tinubu as payback for his support to Buhari in 2015. All these factors no longer exists, including the muslim-muslim ticket that helped Tinubu in the North.

Akpakomiza2:
So what is the pathway for Atiku

Majority votes in the Northeast and Northwest. Decent performance in the Northcentral and a good showing in the Southwest with Seyi Makinde and the legacy PDP's structure as brokered at the Ibadan Declaration. In all possible scenarios, Atiku will emerge with the highest votes even if he fails to get the spread. This will then throw the election into a run off in the worst case scenario. Elrufai already predicted this outcome a long time ago. What a genius he is. No wonder Tinubu has him incarcerated over a bailable allegation. He's the real master strategist and he made Tinubu president.

Is he going to throw Gbajabiamila and Co under the bus? Who will now scatter the ADC as advised?

franchasng:
He has realized that Gbajabiamila gave him a very terrible advice by telling him to remain in ADC to scatter ADC

Lol. Nafiu Bala will be following suit shortly. There are rumours that he has been moved from his hotel suit in Transcorp to a less expensive hotel.

happney65:
Add Ondo too if Seyi is VP candidate. Maybe a triple horse race is not bad afterall because Tinubu seems to have lost all goodwill in the North

I can assure you that Tinubu has no organic supporter anywhere in the country as at today except those on payroll. This is apart from a few that has been radicalised in selected parts of the Southwest under so-called Yoruba conservatism. The real spirit of Omoluabi will triumph over conservatism come 2027. Tinubu has no pathway to re-election. He must have seen several polls on this. This is why he's actively trying to use the courts to disqualify his opponents.

pdppower:
And 2023 is about to repeat itself. Useless opposition

No. This is a welcome development, I assure you.

seunmsg:
I love the Obi/Kwakwanso ticket on the platform of NDC. I will be donating one million naira to their campaign if this ticket becomes a reality. Ntooor to Atiku Abubakar and his supporters. Their only hope of getting substantial votes in the south is up in flames

All I see is fear disguised as confidence. This ticket will effectively kill the "turn of the South" campaign mantra. If this materialises, the probability of Tinubu emerging third as predicted by Elrufai may be a reality. Obi/Kwankwaso will be a solid ticket and with the right momentum, will sweep Tinubu away in the South. Unlike in 2023 when the North provided him with 5.6m votes as buffer after being defeated by Obi in Lagos, Tinubu will see a greater chunk of his 2023 Northern votes going to Atiku with the rest mopped up by OK. Even the middlebelt Tinubu thinks he has flipped is dicey and might slip out his fingers if he repeats the muslim-muslim ticket.

Meanwhile, Atiku picking a Seyi Makinde as Vice will mean states like Oyo, Osun (Aregbesola and LG funds factor) and Lagos are up for grabs. Tinubu is not as popular in the Southwest as his lackeys like to pretend and resorting to tribal rethorics to galvanise his base in Lagos like we saw in 2023 will further shut him out in the rest of the South.

If you find yourself explaining too much, you are on the losing side. Wike and his court of jesters have lost out. They should give it a rest already.

Cc: Seunmsg

Supreme Court Judgment Conclusively Extinguishes the Sam Anyanwu Faction - Oba Maduabuchi, SAN

The Supreme Court of Nigeria has, by its authoritative pronouncement, definitively and irrevocably resolved the vexed issue of factionalisation within the Peoples Democratic Party… pic.twitter.com/g40AHfgMzF

— Olufemi aduwo (@aduwolufemi) May 1, 2026

Two charlatans monkeying themselves for clout.

A quick question. Can Helenius and Seunmsg also be referred to as Tinubu's allies?

SonOfDSoil01:
muumu, didn’t Tinubu defeat atiku in some states in the north? Tell me why? So Tinubu loosing 2 state in his region means he lost the region? Or you think the same dynamics that played out in 2023 will repeat itself in 2027? We await bitter obi in Lagos in 2027 let him or Atiku come and prove their popularity again, we want to check something 🤣😂🤣🤣

The North made Tinubu president with 5.6m votes. It was payback for having supported Buhari in 2015. If Tinubu regionalises his candidacy, he will lose because he does not have the numbers, even in the South.

k2money:
Stop wasting your time and energy they won't support your Atiku.

Is that why Tinubu is only focusing on his region while screaming "turn of the South"?