₦airaland Forum

1bunne4lif:
you're wrong bro, Atiku is hell bent on consensus, it's his first option

Okay. We hope Obi will be participating in a direct primary in his newfound party?

Water carriers above me having palpitations. Why are you all and Tinubu afraid of a fair and level-playing election? Under the NADECO freedom fighter, ALL major political parties are having sponsored court cases and rancour. All with no single exception. Posterity will be very unkind to him.

Jossyman0007:
So,it means Tinubu is working, right?, he's no longer marginalizing the North.
Your hypocrisy stinks to high heaven.

PROUDLY ANANG MAN,,go check it up!

ANANG Man, why didn't you deliver your state to Tinubu in 2023? Why did Atiku win Akwa Ibom in 2023 after 8 years of Buhari? Who's to say you wouldn't be saying the same of Atiku if he had won in 2023 like you wanted him to? You are now loud after Northerners went against their own son to make Tinubu president. Your much touted loyalty to Tinubu today is purchased with money. Nothing organic.

Jossyman0007:
To an average Fulani man,if you are not Yoruba,then you must be an Igbo man,Oga wise up!, there are other tribes in Nigeria than youruba, Hausa and Igbo.

I'm a proud South southerner,okay?
Now,back to the topic.........
Atiku will never benefit from the southern turn,let him wait till 2031 ,if God keeps him alive till then.
Cheers

Just make sure you queue up and actually vote Tinubu on that day. Voter apathy and sitting at home will not be enough. There are just enough Northerners who also want Tinubu to continue. The North does not put all its political eggs in one basket.

Jossyman0007:
I'd rather have Tinubu get a 3rd term than have Atiku on the ballot in 2027. Let the North vote and make him a northern president.
The present momentum in ADC is due to the presence of the Obidients group,I'm sure you are aware of this??

Northerners can leave with that. Can you? VP, Deputy Senate President and Speaker are all Northerners. Here is the list of projects approved by FEC just yesterday. Find your region on the list. This doesn't include the Kaduna and Kano light rails wortj trillions that was approved too. You won't be exempyed from paying back the loans, though. "Let Tinubu continue" is not a threat to the North. The South didn't vote him. 5.6m Northerners did.

1bunne4lif:
you listened and yet can't comprehend, Obi is demanding for direct primaries, let there be primaries not consensus Oga. Atiku has lost his influence, he thinks he still commands respect, Believe it or not, Obi will beat Atiku in a free and fair primary election

By the electoral act, if even one candidate refuses to go with conscensus, direct primaries must take place. If this is the excuse Obi has cited for wanting to leave the ADC, he lied to you. All he needed to say was "No".

Jossyman0007:
I'm surprised you didn't bring in Atiku and northern oligarchy into this?.
I repeat, instead of Atiku to win 2027 election,I'd rather Tinubu continue.
Dem no bury una (Northerners ) placenta for ASO ROCK

Are you having a laugh? Northerners voted Tinubu into power. You didn't. Northerners are well represented and positioned in the APC, you aren't. A Northerner is currently VP, Deputy Senate President and speaker. Your man is proud of his "Number 6" position and wears it with pride. Who told you there aren't Northerners interested in seeing Tinubu continue till 2031 when they fully take over? "Let Tinubu continue" is not the threat you think it is to the North. Northerners are always in power, just different power blocs. The bigger question is, what's in it for your region? In 2015, Tinubu was in the same position the Southeast currently is. He seized the opportunity by travelling all the way to Daura to convince a retired Buhari to come get his Southern brother out of power. The rest is history.

1bunne4lif:
L did you listen to obi's interview after the coalition? Go back and take a listen. Obi clearly said that he's in for direct primaries while Atiku is hoping for a consensus

You can only sell such lies in your WhatsApp group. Obi has never participated in a primary election. Not even when he was governor. He will still be seeking for a free ticket in his new party. The talks about Atiku dollarising the primaries is no longer sellable hence the new lies.

Your miserable life huh??, pic.twitter.com/19v7sT1uXJ

— /OLG_Caleb🌿 (@olg_caleb) May 2, 2026

1bunne4lif:
did I hear you say north?
Who and who are his ally in the north?
All the people that held him in high esteem from the north are now in the APC, think again

So why then is Obi afraid of a direct primary and demanding for the ticket?

This closet supporter of Tinubu can no longer hide his bias. The Supreme Court verdict left them disappointed. Any other mushroom verdict given at the lower courts will not stop the ADC from being on the ballot because the law is clear on the non-judisciable nature of a party's internal affairs. Tinubu will face very formidable opposition at the ballot. Elections are won through the ballots in Nigeria, not through the courts.

Freshtruth:
This man is the major problem of Adc has no respect for zoning north time he go run , south time u go run. Na only u they? U no feel back obi but make obi back u



This man na very bad person

Please mind the door. Don't let it hit you on your way out. No free ticket in the ADC. All candidates will subject themselves to the party's direct primaries.

Bentacur007:
I expect Obi to resign too.. Atiku is very greedy I have never seen any greedy politician like him..He doesn’t calculate well and he is not very smart

Don't let the door hit you on your way out.

solreb:
The scenario you painted above will actually make PBAT to win based on the following. It will be a tight race between AA and PBAt in the core north while PBAT will take both NW and SW. Obi will lead in SE with PBAT taking a good chunk better than 2023. So the truly will still be PBAT followed by AA and Obi with PBAT having more votes than 2023.

But I believe that Obi will run as VP to AA.That is his best shot

You lost me at PBAT will take Northwest. You are clearly not informed.

1bunne4lif:
This assertion is wrong, Obi is open to direct primaries, it's Atiku that's hell bent on consensus.
If consensus is to be considered, the south should have it in order to balance the unwritten zonal law of 8 years north, 8 years south

That's outrightly false. Atiku has a clear advantage even in a direct primary. The North has more registered members. Obi has never participated in a primary in his political career. He wants Atiku to step down from the race but that's undemocratic.

Willy2025:
Because Buhari never wanted him as the successor in 2023. He allowed Obidients to rig mindlessly. This time around Obi won't see 20k in Lagos. Bookmark this. If he gets 20k votes, I owe you 1m.

You don't have 1m to spare but deal! If you use violence to prevent other Southerners from voting Obi in the SW, the same will be done against Tinubu across other parts of the South.

DeLaRue:
You're already baking in Adeleke victory into your calculations. You also assume that the Presidential election in the SW will be conducted in a free and fair manner.

1. My suspicion is that APC will take Mr Adeleke's promise of support with a pinch of salt. The likes of Mr Tinubu and Osun APC are too experienced to believe an opposition Governor.

2. Following from 1, APC will do everything possible to win Osun Governorship. I fear that election will be very violent, or there will be so much military and other forces deployed that many opposition voters will be too intimidated to come out to vote. Just speculation. I could be wrong.

Thank you for alluding to how unpopular Tinubu is in Osun and indeed other parts of the Southwest. If he has to resort to rigging, violence and intimidation in his own state of origin in order to win, then I have nothing else to add. Even the most ardent Tinubu supporter always end up admitting that Tinubu will only win if he rigs the election. Well, rigging has its limitations. If Tinubu forcefully rigs Adeleke out, the people will revolt against him with their votes in the presidential elections.

DeLaRue:
My brother, Mr Tinubu was not President then, and it wasn't Mr Atiku that won the Osun votes, it was PDP as a party, and a PDP Governor. The 2027 scenario will be different.

Please see the new addition to my last comment.

Yorubas are quiet now (as they tend to do in these situations), but no group in Nigeria wants a President from their region humiliated out of office. That's just the reality.

You practically just saw the other bloc of the PDP pledging to field a single presidential candidate at the Ibadan Declaration and you think the PDP structure is dead? PDP remains intact in Osun (forget the false posture of Adeleke promising to support Tinubu), Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Remember how the deputy governor of Bayelsa refused to decamp until he "died" under mysterious circumstances. The recent supreme court judgement seeming to give a lifeline to the PDP might be the ruling party's tactic to forestall the Makinde PDP aligning with the ADC.

If the Yorubas resort to tribalism and vilification of the Fulanis as an election winning strategy, it will only make Tinubu's loss more woeful, especially in the North. Tinubu won with 5.6m votes from the Hausa/Fulanis. The same will be the case in the South if the SW whips up ethnic sentiments against the Igbos in states like Lagos. Tinubu is already more unpopular now than in 2023 when he was an untested candidate and had the benefit of doubt.

Same Osun where Tinubu is withholding Local government allocations? Lol. Time is a gentleman.

DeLaRue:
You are right that Mr Atiku will likely increase his vote counts in the North.

But as you know, that alone will not secure him the Presidency. He needs to meet the 25% requirement in 24 states. That's a massive ask, because without Mr Obi, ADC doesn't really have any Southern politician that can help ADC in the South. That's a big weakness for Mr Atiku.

I speculate that Mr Makinde will not deliver 25% of votes in Oyo fir ADC, even though ADC may do much better in the Governorship election in that State.

Atiku contested after 8 years of Buhari and won Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Make of that what you will. Seyi Makinde as VP will deliver 25% of the votes in Ibadan. Tinubu may have lost Oyo if Makinde supported Atiku in 2023. Seyi was fully on ground. Most of Obi's Southwestern supporters who are disillusioned with Tinubu will also now vote an Atiku with Seyi as Vice. Tinubu will not win the Southwest in a landslide no matter what any of his supporters say. We know this as a fact.

Willy2025:
There is no credible organised opposition to the 2nd term of Tinubu. Our philosophy in Yorubaland is that we don't vilify our son whether good or bad. Omo Eni o le buru, ki a fi fun ekun je (you cannot feed your son to a tiger because he is a bad boy). If a boy fails in Yorubaland, you simply ask him to repeat the class. If you are saying that Tinubu has failed (though he is doing exceptionally well), then he must be allowed to repeat the presidency. Afterall, he said EMILOKAN
It is still the turn of the Yorubas, so Obi et al. should wait for their turn. You see this 2027, it is either snatch or grab. Una go learn in what way again?

Why did your son lose in Lagos that he governed for 8 years and resides in and in Osun, his state of origin? Do you think your son is currently President because of your votes?

DeLaRue:
This may not be a direct response to your post, but I suspect that once all parties have gone through their primaries, and Mr Obi is in NDC, the court cases against ADC will slowly ebb away.

By then, APC will have achieved their aim of ensuring Mr Atiku and Mr Obi are not ADC's Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates.
This combination was the most dangerous for APC.

If Mr Obi ends up in NDC, then the most likely outcome is an APC victory or a rerun between the President and Mr Atiku.

Mr Obi pulling away from ADC is a catastrophic outcome for Mr Atiku because that will wipe him out of the entire South, as I can't think of any state where ADC can/will be allowed to win 25% of the votes.

Can anyone think of a Southern state where that can happen without Mr Obi in the ADC? I can't.

If Mr Atiku doesn't win 25% of votes in a single Southern state, he can't be declared a winner even if he wins more votes overall than Mr Tinubu.

Mr Atiku's best shot is a rerun.

In 2023, he ran against the tide and met the threshold in about 20 states. He was only 4 states short. With a Seyi Makinde as Vice for example, he just might meet the threshold at first ballot. Also, Atiku will get the highest votes at first ballot in all permutations.

The ADC has no legal case against it that can stick. These are just delay tactics by the ruling party. In any case, Tinubu would have sabotaged himself if the ADC fails to be on the ballot and the NDC is.

DeLaRue:
Hmm, the scale of the 'strangulation' is unlikely to be as catastrophic as you postulate.

Damaging in the South East, yes, but with all SE Governors appearing to support Mr Tinubu, he will do a lot better than last year in that region. And the critical factor is for him to get 25% of the votes in say, 3 SE states. I think the Governors will deliver that.

I speculate that there'll be a complete wipeout of Mr Obi's 2023 votes in the SW, by whatever means APC finds necessary. It will be APC top to bottom, including Oyo.

There are APC Governors in the SS that will do whatever is necessary to ensure NDC doesn't do well in many SS states.

It's even easier for a keen Governor to facilitate rigging under the new Electoral law. So, expect a lot of rigging, and with NDC not having any Governor, I suspect the party will only do well in its likely stronghold - the SE.

You overestimate the influence of governors. In 2023, no governor in the Southeast supported Obi. Ikpeazu and Ungwanyi were members of the G5 who supported Tinubu while Soludo's letter asking Obi to step down is well documented. Umahi and Uzodinma were APC members and they supported Tinubu. In clear terms, all governors of the Southeast supported Tinubu but he lost the region in a landslide. Ditto the Southsouth but for the brazen rigging of Rivers by Wike. Okowa was VP candidate and an incumbent governor but he couldn't deliver his state.

You are right, Obi will no surpass his 2023 numbers in all 3 regions of the South and in the middlebelt, but it will be as a result of voter fatigue. He over-exaggerates people's willingness to go queue up in the sun again to vote for him when they know he wouldn't stand a chance.

At least, half of Southeasterners also want Obi to stay back in the ADC and fight, and to support the winner if he loses. Obi's base is therefore balkanized even if he moves. These are some of the factors that will stall his chances.

IamPatriotic:
The three are differently guilty of not being a oppositions, Atiku and Kwankwaso should have respected the gentlemen rotation arrangements between the North and the South, while Obi should have remained in Labour Party, rather than moving to ADC

Agreements on zoning are internal matters of political parties, not constitutional. Anyone with political ambition that feels his interest is not well served in a political party should be allowed to leave. This is democracy. There is no zoning in the ADC. It was made clear to Obi from the get-go, but he chose to join, nonetheless.

Freshtruth:
Who ever convince Rabiu kwankwaso to agllin with Peter obi has done just raise Rabiu kwankwanso stake Nationwide. Obi spread is national and is gaining momentum even though obi fails to win next year election kwakwaso has automatically inherited the obedient movement ahead of 2031 presidential elections as the major opposition. By 2031 Atiku would had left the sence of politics and obi won't come out again by 2031 this is obi final shot at the presidency .
it will be Tinubu anointed candidate against kwankwaso the new face of opposition by 2031. Kwankwaso is a wise man for positioning himself for future reasons.

Yes, that's the strategy. Obi/Kwankwaso will strangle APC in the South but it will not get enough votes to win the general elections. If Atiku consolidates the Northern votes as he is set to do, he will have the most votes. He may or may not meet the spread at first ballot (depends on several factors including impact of his choice of VP and general momentum). Tinubu will meet the constitutional spread but will not get the largest votes at first ballot because he has lost his core Northern base. Kwankwaso may emerge as the biggest individual winner because he will consolidate his posture in the Southeast for his future political ambition (which is why some argue he may be working for Tinubu and that Abba Kabir's defection is a ruse). The Southeast, as a region, may take the greatest hit and suffer political setback, but some Easterners will argue that they don't need the presidency to thrive. In reality, they do. Regions play politics to win, long-term or short-term. Any region playing politics just to prove a point will end up with the short end of the stick.

Wickedtruths:
Will the North vote an Obi to come use another 8 years
Will the South vote an Atiku to come reduce the South's tenure to 4 years?
Will Northern politicians hoping on 2031 work for an Atiku in 2027 and erase their chances?

Tinubu also has power of incumbency and knows how to silence dissent.

Would you believe political talks are now being held without Elrufai's name popping up?

I also know of one despot who knew how to silent dissent. His name was Sani Abacha. Celebrating a president silencing dissent in a democracy shows how low you all have sunk. Elrufai made Tinubu president and vowed to unmake him. Out of panic and fear, Tinubu quickly moved to incarcerate him without bail on trumped up charges for a bailable offence. You celebrate it as master strategy, but we call it cowardice over here. Elrufai is just one man but be rest assured that whatever is done to Elrufai today will be retaliated in multiple folds. Time is a gentleman.

Tinubu is grossly unpopular and will fail in his quest to use the courts and other shady means to prevent opponents from facing him at the ballot. No civilian president ever resorted to this cowardly approach until (after Obasanjo"s quest for third term) until Tinubu came along. We are beginning to notice a pattern but be rest assured that he who thinks he's leading and has no one following is only taking a walk.

Sannisege:
Your Atiku that won the entire north, where is he today? If you northerners think you can use killings to defeat Tinubu, then there’s nothing wrong if Tinubu uses massive rigging to counter your plot.

Pathetic! A C-in-C? Was that what he used against Jonathan? Tell us more. Northerners actually made Tinubu president. He was resoundingly defeated by Obi across the entire South and Obi is set to do it again. I'm glad you know Tinubu has no pathway to re-election outside of rigging but rigging will be resisted.

angelboy01:
I'm not Obi nor am I kwankwaso. They know what's happening behind the scene than You and I. So if BAT decides to continue let him do so. Atiku is always there to scatter everything and let it scatter.

People who came to meet Atiku in the ADC are accusing him of scattering everything. Has Atiku complained to you? You came of your own volition and you are all free to leave. Nothing is scathered. We only hope Obidients are actually playing to win and not just to prove a point to Atiku. In 2023, the goal seemed to be about defeating Tinubu in Lagos. It seems 2027 will be about teaching Atiku a lesson. Funny lots.

Felabrity:
lmao, nothing like replicate

Obi base too solid, its even larger now.

Tinubu is ofcourse the common enemy

How many voters have Atiku lost compared to Tinubu and Obi and how many has he potentially gained. In 2023, the clamour for power to head South was spearheaded by several politicians, even from the North. Despite their handwork, Atiku got 7m votes. If the North who gave Tinubu 5.6m votes are now upset with Tinubu, where will a majority of these voters swing towards? Atiku, Obi or Tinubu? The only person who doesn’t want Obi on the ballot is Tinubu.

Felabrity:
I won't go into details but lets see how many votes Atiku will get under ADC in 2027 without PDP structure, when Peter Obi exit the coalition.

Infact few years from now, Kwankwaso movement will be bigger than Atiku, he is more smarter and calculative.

Lol. The coalition needs Obi to be on the ballot if Obidients are not going to support it but Obi should be more worried about being able to replicate his numbers in the South and the middlebelt. Take this seriously. Atiku is not Obi's opponent, Tinubu is. Do not make enemies out of a base that you may still have to rely upon.

Basic123:
Tinubu lost lagos,became the president and won all other positions for APC.
Tinubu lost lagos with just 10k votes.
Let see how you and your fellow criminals in you structure of criminality will win in Lagos and Osun in 2027..

All this your nairaland bizzy body will not safe your boss Atiku from his 5th disgraceful defeat in 2027

No. Tinubu lost Lagos and the entire South to Obi, winning only 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. He became president because the North bailed him out with 5.6m votes. He would have been toast.

Injera:
What you guys fail to understand is that Obis stock has gone down since 2023

Maybe, maybe not. When Southern electorates are faced between Obi and Tinubu, there's only one way many will go.

Basic123:


But couldnt use the strategy to deliver kaduna and so many APC senators and HOR that lost to PDP

He wasn't on the ballot. Tinubu was, yet he lost Lagos where he governed for 8 years and Osun, his state of origin. Lagosians went further to vote Sanwo-olu and other senators and HORs further proving that they were intentional about rejecting Tinubu. We know Tinubu is punishing the people of Osun for rejecting him by withholding their local government allocation despite a subsisting court order.

Way to go. Those Southern votes Tinubu thought he has prized away by singing "turn of the South" will be taken off his fingers. If Tinubu sabotages the ADC using the courts, Northerners will vote enmass for the Obi/Kwakwanso ticket. Nigerians are a proud people. We cannot all be subservient to one man.