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Appleyard's Posts

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Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 8:57pm On Feb 08
WriteerNg:
Iran MUST take the initiative and strike now!

Delay is dangerous.

The US is quietly surrounding Iran on all sides.

Special forces and Delta teams have been flown into Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
While some of us would really want Iran to go on the offensive, I don't think a preemptive strike now would suit their chances. You have to looK at the bigger picture.


At a time when most US allies in the region and across Europe are giving the US and Israel a cold shoulder vis-a-vis the Gaza, Qatar Venezuela, and Greenland events. It would be unwise for Iran to play the aggressor and give that camp a reason to rethink their current stance against supporting the US/Israel war drums beating against Tehran.

Iran's high readiness level is enough punishment for them already. They understand now that any attack on Iran, whether limited or not, will receive immediate retaliation, and no amount of Special forces deployment to Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan can stop the retaliation. There is a reason why the US keep asking for further talks: they have no appetite for a regional war that could easily spiral out of control, which is exactly what an attack on Iran poses. Besides, the Midterms are here, and any military misadventures could see the Dems steamrolling back in control of both legislative houses.

Lastly, Iran's military doctrine advocate deterrence first and offensive actions later. And let's not forget that this is asymmetric warfare, and it's not determine by who possess the weapons or fires the first shot but how much a side is willing to lose by firing the shot.

Therefore, as it stands now, i think Iran is handling the situation well. Let the frustration drives them mad as Tehran stands resolved on its demands. They'd either chicken out or blunder into attacking Iran. Either way, they're headed for shameful exit.

Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:27pm On Feb 07
It's western media confession time about the deadliness of the Russian Oreshnik.

https://youtube.com/shorts/0YP0Sv4y6sw?si=TOIYfqTVQr64-Epk

Fight Russia head on at your own peril. cool
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 1:54pm On Feb 07
WriterrNg:
⚡The British magazine The Economist dedicated the main article of its latest issue to the toxicity of the US currency and the assertion that "the old financial architecture is collapsing".

The article notes that dollar assets are no longer a safe haven, and the US currency itself is becoming toxic. While the US claims to have a "great economy", the figures say otherwise: since its peak in January 2025, the dollar has lost a tenth of its value in the currency rating.

It is also stated that US stocks denominated in euros have hardly brought any profits to investors over the past year. Experts from The Economist are confident that this is not just a temporary volatility, but a fundamental change.

The key conclusion of the article is that the world understands very well that storing savings in the currency of a country with an astronomical national debt (already more than $38.7 trillion and an aggressive sanctions policy is an unjustifiable risk.
Put it plainly; dedollarisation is having a toll gradually.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 1:13pm On Feb 07
Jovi10:
So many sensible human beings 😂🤣🤣😂
. See how they reason. A mine with rope strapped to someone who doesn't want to die in the first place. Then one said he will be forced to lie down and wait for tanks to run him over as per the grass or vegetable wey him be 🤣😭🤣😭.

Then they took it to another level that the mine will be shot with a gun so it can explode and all of them are actively supporting this rubbish take oh my God 😂🤣😂😂😂😂.

The other most intelligent of them said it will be used as IEDs as if IEDs are not used as mines too.

It's called mine for a reason, you don't run into a moving tank with a mine this is not Hollywood 🤣🤣😂🤣🤣🤣🤣 will the tank driver be watching while you run towards them? Them go blow your head before you even come near 🤣😂😂
You're arguing with people that believe in the ghost of kiev. They'd believe anything.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 1:04pm On Feb 07
WriteerNg:
⚡Reuters:

The U.S. and Ukraine are discussing a push for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal by March, though major disagreements—especially over territory—make that deadline unlikely.

Washington wants any deal quickly put to a Ukrainian referendum alongside national elections, possibly in May.

U.S. negotiators say timing matters as Trump is expected to shift focus to domestic politics ahead of the midterm elections.
This will not scale through. Zelensky is still hell bent on not ceding territories, which is a major demand of the Russians.

The midterms will scath the Republicans; thanks to Trump's high-handedness with the ICE fiasco.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m):
amadivv:
.You people keep dodging the real point. Nobody cares whether a mine explodes or not — that’s just you shifting the goalpost so you don’t have to address the actual issue. The real discussion is about Africans being sent into dangerous assaults, humiliated, and treated as disposable. Instead of acknowledging that, you’re hiding behind technical distractions. If you truly cared about truth, you’d talk about the treatment and dignity of those men, not argue over side details to protect a narrative.Instead of showing concern for your own people, you’re busy defending a narrative and nitpicking side details.At some point, it stops being ignorance and starts looking like Will denial.The funniest part is watching you bend over backwards to defend a country that wouldn’t even look twice at you.
Your post reeks of hypocrisy and selective narrative.

You're doing exactly what you accuse others of doing: moral grandstanding built on selective outrage and recycled Western talking points.

The fact that you could conveniently choose to dismiss whether or not the mine will explode lay bare your malicious intent to dismiss the evidence and draw conclusions so long as the accuse is Russia.


First, your claim that “Africans are being sent as disposable cannon fodder” is not some neutral humanitarian concern on yoUr part. It's a narrative, and a very familiar one. The West has used the same script everywhere: Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Ukraine.

You take a complex war, strip it of context, inject racialized emotion charged by sheer propaganda, and then present yourself as the only moral referee. Same movie, different cinema. We see through the haze.

If this was really about dignity as you claimed, you would not dismiss evidence but take the lead by asking basic questions:

---Why in Amadivv’s name would Russia strap a mine to the neck of its soldier?

---Has Russia ran out of Gerans and missiles that it now requires suicide soldiers to kill Ukrainian soldiers?

---Assuming we're to grant the benefit of the doubt, is the Russian war planners so dumb that they didn't consider strapping the African suicide soldiers with suicide vest that are more effective and destructive than a mine?

---Between Russia and Ukraine, which is methodical in tactics? Who is wasting assets on the frontlines?

---BTW, where is the link to the purported Russian Telegram channel from where the supposed video emanated as claimed by the western source that posted it?

None of you bothered to ask those questions because they complicate the story for your lot.

Once you dismiss the evidence, you've already taken sides. Your hypocrisy smells like uranium.

Second, the mine argument is not “goalpost shifting,” it’s called evidence. In war reporting, details matter. Whether an explosion will occur or not from a mine when shot, changes responsibility and goes to the root of the matter at hand. Dismissing facts as “technical distractions” is how propaganda works.

Once facts become inconvenient, suddenly “nobody cares.” That’s not truth-seeking; that’s narrative protection on your part.

Until you start putting facts into clear, deductible and logical perspective, you'd end up parroting Western hypocrisy, which has been one of the Hallmark of the Ukrainian war.

The same Western media you're relying on to lecture everyone about human dignity lied about Iraq’s WMDs, sold Libya’s destruction as “humanitarian intervention”, lied about Syria chemical attacks l, and lied about Bucha.
That’s not justice; that’s information warfare.

So when someone like you parrots those same outlets and then says “if you cared about truth…" we should clap for him? Nah. A hypocrite is a hypocrite, especially one born, bred and thrive on western propaganda.

Also, the idea by some of you that defending factual accuracy equals “defending Russia” is childish thinking. This is one reason I don't bother engaging most of you because you deliberately chose to reason like kids.

You can criticize war and criticize propaganda at the same time. But some of you can’t do that because your worldview hinges on a simple good-vs-evil script written in Washington.

It is ironical you're calling others “narrative defenders” while repeating Western-approved language word-for-word. That’s not independent thinking; that’s outsourcing your moral compass. It's why Bob Marley cried “emancipate yourself from mental slavery.”

You dey shout “open your eyes,” but na another man glasses you wear.

Nobody is saying war is clean. Nobody is saying dignity doesn’t matter. But if your outrage only switches on when MSM outlets like CNN or BBC tell you to feel it, then you’re not defending Africans, you’re just being used as emotional ammunition.

You don't have to defend a video that is clearly propaganda just because it paints one side bad and depict your kind as animals.

Truth as we know it doesn’t need performance, and dignity doesn’t need propaganda.


I will not reply to this anymore.

Bye.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:26pm On Feb 06
LordAdam16:
none of them use dollars by choice

iran trades in yuan and ruble with china and russia
likewise vz and cuba

brazil vetoed venezuela and cuba from joining brics

-Lord
Cuba was accepted as a BRICS partner state the same year Venezuela and Nicaragua were excluded. So, Cuba is stilll under observation.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:17pm On Feb 06
LordAdam16:
you cannot compare russia and iran

as recently as 2014, russia was in the g8
russia is the 4th largest economy in the world by PPP
total russian reserves right now is $730B

putin made the gamble to ignore nato expansion so he could rebuild the russian economy without sanctions
and he succeeded

iran never had that opportunity
there was economic downturn before the revolution
immediately after the war, saddam invaded
the iraq-iran war last 8 long years and destroyed iran's economy
iran had sanctions before the war (due to the 1979 hostage crisis), during the war, and after the war
the us has maintained a mosaic of sanctions almost non-stop since 1979
they've added new sanctions this year

how iran is still standing today is the 9th wonder of the world

a billionaire tightening his belt is different from a broke former industrialist with a negative net worth
last year, russia exported more arms than iran exported oil in 2024
in 2024, in the middle of the ukraine war and biting sanctions, russia exports value was $377B with trade surplus of $175B (they imported $202B)
in comparison, iran exports value was $13B with trade deficit of $9B (they imported $22B)
and they have roughly the same population (russia is 120m v iran's 90m)

russia and iran are not in the same stratosphere
sanctions have destroyed iran, venezuela, and cuba
in a fair world, it'll count as a crime against humanity




and personally i think this is another reason why iran should have nukes

if i am sanctioned non-stop for 45 years
i will get a nuke even if an angel says i should not
no one who is that cruel deserves to sleep soundly at night

-Lord
You’re speaking facts here, honestly. Russia and Iran no be mates at all in terms of starting point or room to maneuver.

Russia had a window with its G8 membership, access to capital, tech, markets, reserves stacked. Putin gambled: “let me rebuild first, sanctions later,” and it worked. By the time sanctions came, Russia don already get buffer. Big economy, energy leverage, arms exports, deep reserves. Na billionaire wey dey complain say economy hard.

Iran? Completely different story. Sanctions before 1979 even finish, sanctions during the war, sanctions after. War with Saddam scatter everything for 8 solid years, and the US never remove its foot from Iran neck since then. No breathing space, no reset button. Na like person wey never recover from accident before another trailer hit am.

So yeah, how Iran still dey stand today na miracle. If sanctions truly be “peaceful tools,” Iran for don vanish. Instead, dem survive—barely.

And make we no decieve ourselves: if you punish a country nonstop for 45 years, deny am growth, security, dignity… abeg, who no go look for ultimate deterrent? Even angel fit preach, hunger and threat no dey hear sermon. Na realpolitik, not morality.

Notwithstanding, Iran go survive. It's destined to.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:41pm On Feb 06
emmaodet:
This doesn't make any sense.
How can a country be publicly showing that they hate another country and don't want it to progress by forcing a third country not to trade with it.
Where is the so called free-trade world?
China is in for a long thing.
Syria oil cut-off, venezuela cut-off and ow they want to mess with Iran to cut-off.
They are slowly strangulating china without confronting her head-on.
It is up to china to support and defend their interest with other axis or see themselves in a defensive position few years from now fighting for their own life too.
Trump is acting out the playbook of Elbridge Colby. He go soon jam rock.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Egyptian Military Must Be Prevented From Growing - Natanyahu Warns by Appleyard(m): 8:24pm On Feb 06
Namaster:
MADNESS!

ILLsrael is a GENOCIDAL state with Nuclear Weapons YET they are always trying to keep their neighbours WEAK.

The GOAL is to make it easier for them to be an absolutely TERRIBLE neighbour without a fear of consequences.

Their GENERATIONAL PTSD have left them all brutally TRAUMATIZED.
Instead of setting up National Therapy, they are funding clandestine terrorism acts in other people's countries.

The ONLY way to guarantee peace in the Middle East is allowing Iran to build their own Nuclear Weapons. And Egypt too, if they wish to.

That way, the fear of Mutually Assured Destruction would get EVERYBODY to behave and pursue diplomacy with their neighbours.

Right now, ILLsrael is the number one DESTABILISER of the Middle East.
They launch ATTACKS on other countries at the SLIGHTEST opportunity.

Things that other countries would RESOLVE with a single diplomatic meeting will result in ALL OUT WAR when ILLsrael is involved.

And this will NOT stop until their NEIGHBOURS have enough Firepower (including Nuclear Weapons) to match ILLsrael.

Or when the US Government stops automatically dancing to the tunes of ILLsrael.
That man has menal issues.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 1:07pm On Feb 06
WriteerNg:
⚡Iran's Fars:

Iran has deployed its advanced Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile to newly unveiled underground missile bases of the IRGC Aerospace Force.

With a 2,000 km range, a 1,500 kg warhead, and ~30 m accuracy, the missile is a key element of Iran’s active deterrence.

It reaches up to Mach 16 outside the atmosphere and Mach 8 inside, sharply reducing enemy air-defense reaction time.
This one no be small matter, and people dey seriously underrate wetin this means.

Khorramshahr-4 no be those old “parade missiles” wey people dey laugh at. This thing na heavy hitter. 1,500kg warhead alone tell you say Iran no dey design am for warning shots — na for overwhelming defenses.

Let's be honest:
--US missile defense systems were built for limited threats, not massed, fast, precision strikes from multiple vectors.

--Patriot? Designed mainly for aircraft and short-range threats. Against Mach 8+ terminal speeds? Na prayer point.

--THAAD? Very good, but limited numbers, fixed sites, and easily saturated.

---Aegis on destroyers? Effective, but radar horizon + reaction time dey work against am when missiles dey come steep and fast.

When a missile dey hit Mach 16 exo-atmospheric and Mach 8 end-game, you’ve already eaten half your interception window before anybody even finish shouting “track confirmed.”

Now add the underground bases to the mix. That’s the real headache.

These missiles don't sit on open launchers wey satellite go catch easily. Dem dey underground, hardened, dispersed. You no fit do “first strike and neutralize” easily. Na shoot-and-hide warfare, and Iran has practiced this for years.

US assets in the region? Let’s have a look:
---fixed airbases
---predictable naval patrol routes
---clustered logistics hubs
---oil infrastructure nearby

All of them are big, expensive, and visible. Iran’s missiles are relatively cheaper and designed to come in numbers. Defense cost more than offense here — bad economics for the defender.

And the accuracy (~30m CEP) means this no be “area terror weapon” alone. Runways, fuel depots, radar sites, command centers — all valid targets. If one or two hits no kill a base, twenty arriving almost together in their hypersonic speed? Different story.

As for reaction time? Bro, Mach 8 terminal speed means:
---if you blink, you don miss am
---If you sneeze, e don land

That’s why all this talk of “we’ll intercept everything” na Hollywood. Real life no dey give pause button. grin

All joke aside, this is one of the reasons Washington is suddenly cautious. Not because Iran is invincible, but because US assets cannot absorb damage the way Iran’s doctrine allows it to dish out.

No be say lion no fit fight — e just dey count how many teeth hyena get before e jump.

This missile deployment na message:
“If fight start, nobody go sleep well.”

Persia has spoken. cool
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:01am On Feb 06
Jovi10:
Mines are used for suprise attack. Omo this will be my last response to Una. As I dey follow Una argue it dey drain my brain of intellect. Ah nawa o . See as human beings dey reason? They just swallow anything they see on western media, no personal investigation at all. Segobe

I slant for una
No, continue arguing.

Wait until they tell you nines are strapped on the head to head the enemy.

Some of you just love wasting your precious time arguing with folks that has twisted minds.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:50pm On Feb 05
LordAdam16:
western media keep reporting that the reason for these shocking retreats by the us is arab pressure

i don't think that is the only factor
i don't even think it is the defining factor

the us had walked
witkoff was scheduled to leave the levant tomorrow after meeting the qataris
the israelis successfully tanked the talks

then barely one hour later the us dropped all their pre-negotiation demands and accepted all iran's pre-negotiation demands
something extraordinary has been making the us to behave erratically
and i can't quite place my finger on it




the israelis are in shock
and they're scrambling
there'll be an emergency full cabinet meeting tomorrow about today

and satanyahu is calling for a us-israel political and security dialog with the participation of high ranking us officials from state and the pentagon next week

an independent attack by israel is a real possibility

-Lord
Your head dey d matter wella. cool

I be think say na only me dey see wetin they sup for the Iran matter.

The “Arab pressure” explanation na lazy analysis. E dey convenient for Western media because e removes agency from Washington and makes Arabs look like sudden power brokers. But that no dey explain the speed and direction of the US U-turn.

Make we talk am as e be.

This no be gradual concession. This na hard brake + reverse gear. One hour gap between “we’re walking away” and “we accept Iran’s terms” no be diplomacy — na reaction. Something jam.

Arab pressure alone no fit do that. Gulf states dey influential, yes, but dem no dey flip US red lines overnight. Dem dey persuade, not panic Washington.

What really dey smell here is fear of loss of control.

First, the Israelis tanked the talks — that part important. The US gave them space, like always, and instead of coordination, Tel Aviv went rogue politically. Washington suddenly realized say negotiations were being used as cover, not a pathway. Once that became clear, the US faced a choice:

--keep playing along and get dragged into a war on Israeli timing, or
--rip the script and reset fast

Na why dem swallowed Iran’s preconditions like bitter leaf. Better bad deal than unmanaged escalation. if you notIce wetin Vance taLk recently, Trump no want a repeat of the Iraq experience.

Second, the US intelligence purview probably changed. Many don’t see that side, but sudden erratic behavior usually means new information like:

--Iranian readiness levels
--regional allies refusing basing or overflight
--missile stockpile survivability and capabilities (no forget the recent ICBM test).
--or credible signals that Iran would strike first if talks collapsed

Once the Pentagon big boys start whispering “this could spiral fast,” ideology goes out the window as the new reality comes through the door. That ICBM test indicate that no US assets in the region is safe.

Third — and this one key no be joke — the US is stretched thin like catapult. Ukraine no gree finish. Red Sea still hot. Asia dey boil quietly. Opening a Middle East war now would be strategic malpractice in the geopolitical exam hall. Even Washington hawks know that. Dem fit like war, but dem like controlled war, not chaos they can't control.

Israel now dey in shock because the usual script fail. Normally:

--Israel objects
--US applies pressure on others
--Israel gets quiet green light

This time, Washington said “no be now, no be like this.” Na why Netanyahu dey scramble, call emergency meeting like person when brokos dey miss, dey shout “dialogue,” bring Pentagon big men enter room. That’s not confidence; that’s damage control.

Yes, an independent Israeli strike is possible, But very risky. Without US political cover and logistical depth, that move fit isolate Israel fast in terms of diplomacy and militarily.

So you’re right: Arab pressure no be the sole or real driver.

The driver na Washington realizing it was losing steering control of the escalation ladder.

As we dey say for Naija:
when bus driver suddenly matcH brake, no be because road fine — na because e see accident ahead.

Something changed. We just haven’t seen it yet.

Make we still dey watch.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:50pm On Feb 05
WriterrNg:
⚡Zelensky:

In Ukraine, the number of soldiers killed—career soldiers or mobilized—is 55,000, and many are considered missing.
Multiply that number by 10, then multiply the answer against each year since the war began (2022-2025), and you will get the regrettable figure this clown is really talking about.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:53pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
exactly




if they are not already building nuclear warheads after one month of the us amassing assets for stated use in iran
they are hopeless

-Lord
Iran already has nukes. That I believe.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:52pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
officially official

russia announces that the nuclear treaty between the us and russia has expired

new arms race is in effect
let the games begin

-Lord
Enter the Burevestnik. cool
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 8:03pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
okay now what is this bullsh*t

the us included in its list of conditions
that iran would be barred from launching satellites

satellites that even nigeria can launch


They were never prepared for peace. The talk was just to buy time to get their much needed assets in position across the region. Now that the last ship has arrived, let the fireworks begin.

No chicken out this time.

The Houthis have already moved into striking positions.

Meanwhile, Chinese soy ship is lurking within range of the carrier.

Persia is ready for whatever.

iran should launch pre-emptive strikes

enough is enough

-
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 8:01pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
okay now what is this bullsh*t

the us included in its list of conditions
that iran would be barred from launching satellites

satellites that even nigeria can launch




They were never prepared for peace. The talk was just to buy time to get their much needed assets in position across the region. Now that the last ship has arrived, let the fireworks begin.

No chicken out this time.

The Houthis have already moved into striking positions.

Meanwhile, Chinese soy ship is lurking within range of the carrier.

Persia is ready for whatever.

iran should launch pre-emptive strikes

enough is enough

-Lord
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:54pm On Feb 04
So the US uses the F35 air-to-air missile costing $2.2 million dollars to take down a $20k unarmed surveillance drone just to show force.

The way the MIC rips the American taxpayers of their money is beyond pathetic.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:31pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
officially official

an arab media source is reporting that saudi arabia has informed iran that it will remain neutral during the war if iran attacks any us base in the gulf including in saudi arabia as long as no saudi is killed

iran must now seriously consider pre-emptive strikes

i have zero confidence in these negotiations

-Lord
It means war is imminent.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:26pm On Feb 04
WriterrNg:
⚡France, once among Europe's most prosperous nations, is now said to have slipped into "third-world status" after new figures revealed it has firmly slid into the EU's "second tier".

For the third consecutive year, the country's wealth per capita sits below the EU average and has now fallen beneath that of Cyprus, according to Eurostat data.
In March 2008, former French President Jacques Chirac said, "Without Africa, France will slide down into the rank of a third nation."

In 2019, and also recently, Georgia Meloni of Italy openly stated that without the exploitation of African nations by France, especially via the CFA, France would amount to nothing short of a third-world nation.

Well, as it's turning out to be, these predictions have proved to be accurate; thanks to Niger, Burkinafaso, and Mali kicking them out. With others like Senegal and co gradually towing similar lines, French citizens will start looking for greener pastures soon like Africans.

What goes around comes around. grin
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:50am On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
one must always display premium madness
when dealing with the hegemony

-Lord
Now, Iran has the excuse to also shoot down their drones over the Strait and damn the consequences.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:43am On Feb 04
WriterrNg:


Oga.

Aircraft carrier wey useless. Aircraft carrier wey still need those "cheap improvised" ships to defend itself?

Aircraft carrier na just glorified air base wey dem use asphalt pour on top so dem fit pack jets..

E no dey serve any purpose other than to launch aircrafts and house troops. Very slow moving and easy target crap.
grin you no lie, the post dey harsh but e talk plenty truth.

Aircraft carrier really na glorified air base for water. Just pour asphalt on steel, pack jets, and pray say nothing go reach am. The whole hype dey come from how expensive e be, not because e be invincible.


And the fact say e need plenty “cheap improvised” ships to survive already tell you everything. If the thing strong by itself, why e need escort of destroyers, frigates, submarines, supply ships, plus aircraft on top again? One carrier no fit move alone without forming convoy like Nigerian state governors.

For modern war, carrier slow, big, and broadcast itself like lighthouse. With today’s:

--hypersonic missiles
--long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles
--cheap drones and swarm tactics
--satellites tracking every movement


that big flat deck just dey shout “aim here.” China and Iran don already build their entire doctrine around killing carriers, not fighting them head-on. When the Russian MoD said na just one Zircon seabased hypersonic missile dem go use take decommission the British new Carrier 'HMS Queen Elizabeth', dem no dey joke.

And yes, the only real job of a carrier na to launch aircraft and house troops. If you already get land bases nearby, the carrier suddenly lose value fast. That’s why near peer conflicts no dey rely on them the way Cold War movies show.

The carrier matter pass only when:
--enemy weak
--air defenses poor
--missiles limited
--or you dey bully smaller states


Against a serious opponent? E turn to political symbol and liability. Lose one and the psychological, financial, and political damage go pass the military benefit.

So yeah, aircraft carrier no be useless for everything — but for modern high-end war, e dey look more like an expensive relic trying to survive in a missile age.

Big, slow, flashy… and constantly hiding behind escorts.

Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:14am On Feb 04
WriterrNg:
Russia get more ships and specialized vessels but dem go wan dey use tonnage confuse gullible ones.

Wetin concern weight of ships to size of Navy?

That na the only metric US dey use rank their Navy as number 1.

Russia and China get more ships, larger fleets than US but trust Google to put their own country (America) as number one.

Russia dey build more ships and submarines but dem go wan whine person with "tonnage"
I know it's always hard for our mendacious brothers on the other side to admit the fact that the supposed almighty US is seeking external help from allies to support its ailing shipbuilding needs. But, this is the reality. There is nothing wrong with asking for help from your allies, but it's factual the US no longer compete in modern shipbuilding. The reasons are obvious. Again, you just can't compare US and Russian sea power based on sheer size and numbers of vessels possessed --- each country's strategic interest and geopolitical posturing plays the key role in determining what vessel type, tonnage, and quantity to build.

Here is a report on how the US and Russian ship building industry fairs currently.


As of early 2026, the US and Russian shipbuilding industries are facing sharply contrasting situations: the US is struggling with capacity bottlenecks, high costs, and urgent modernization needs, while Russia, despite sanctions, has significantly increased its shipbuilding pace, particularly in the Arctic and for its navy, even while grappling with severe industrial efficiency issues
.
US Shipbuilding Industry (2025–2026)

The US shipbuilding sector is experiencing what analysts call a "real crisis" or the "worst in 25 years," characterized by a severe lack of capacity and significant delays.
Capacity & Delays: Roughly 37 of 45 battle-force ships under construction as of December 2025 faced delays, with major programs like the Constellation-class frigate years behind schedule.


Production Bottlenecks: The US has largely lost its commercial shipbuilding sector, and its remaining yards are specialized, high-cost, and unable to produce ships at the speed needed to counter competitors.

Strategic Shift: To combat this, the US is looking to partner with South Korea and Japan to build or repair US ships, and in late 2025/early 2026, initiated plans to build icebreakers in Finland.


Future Outlook: The 2025 plan aims to grow the fleet to 390 ships by 2054, but faces a near-term dip to 283 ships by 2027.


Russian Shipbuilding Industry (2025–2026)
Russia has accelerated its shipbuilding pace, outpacing the United States in speed over the last five years and focusing on both military strength and Arctic capabilities.

Record Production: In 2025, Russian shipyards delivered 129 to 132 civilian vessels, a 10-year high, while maintaining a steady pace of military production, including submarines and surface combatants.

Massive Investment: The government has launched a $6 billion-plus plan to build over 1,600 vessels by 2036, aimed at bolstering its merchant fleet and securing the Northern Sea Route.

Sanctions & Challenges: Despite successes, the industry is struggling with the impact of Western sanctions, which have caused a shortage of critical components and technological, economic, and logistical bottlenecks.

Workforce & Efficiency: The industry suffers from "chronic financial weakness" and low efficiency, leading to planned, massive layoffs (up to 70% in some key yards) as part of a restructuring to improve productivity.

Key Comparisons
Arctic Dominance: Russia holds a massive advantage in the Arctic, with 57 icebreakers compared to a very small US fleet.
Strategic Focus: The US is attempting to pivot toward "distributed maritime operations" with smaller, autonomous ships to counter China, while Russia is expanding its capacity for both large-tonnage naval vessels and industrial, specialized ships.


International Partnerships: The US is turning to foreign allies (South Korea, Japan, Finland) to build capacity, while Russia is increasingly looking for alternative supply routes to bypass sanctions.

Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 6:46pm On Feb 03
Dvdpity:
I still don't understand why Russia hasn't hit Ukrainian nuclear plant substations. Force them to shut down permanently.
That would be extreme. Radioactive fallout will kill or maim thousands of innocent people.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 6:35pm On Feb 03
WriteerNg:
⚡Ukraine and its western allies have agreed on a three-step enforcement plan for any future ceasefire with Russia.

If Russia violates a truce, the response would escalate from diplomatic warnings (within 24 hours) to European military intervention, and finally to a US-backed military response within 72 hours if attacks continue.

The plan was discussed by Ukrainian, European, and US officials in recent meetings and is meant to prevent a repeat of past failed ceasefires like the Minsk agreements, which collapsed due to lack of enforcement.
Ah yes. The sacred Three-Step Plan™. Because nothing has ever scared a nuclear-armed state like a well-formatted escalation flowchart.

Let’s break down why this is comedy, not strategy. grin


Step 1: Diplomatic warnings within 24 hours

Fantastic. Russia violates the ceasefire, and the response is… a strongly worded statement. Maybe two. Possibly with the word “deeply concerned.” Moscow has been living off Western warnings since 2014. At this point they probably document them. cool



Step 2: European military intervention.

This is where the plan really shines. Europe—still debating tank deliveries, ammo production, and who pays for what—is supposed to agree, mobilize, and intervene militarily against Russia in record time? Sure. The same Europe that needs three summits and a translator to agree on lunch.
Also, intervene how? Air defense? Troops? Naval assets? “Military intervention” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.


Step 3: US-backed military response within 72 hours.
This is the best joke of all. The United States does not go to war with Russia because a pre-agreed timer expired. Washington doesn’t even go to war with Iraq on a schedule—let alone a nuclear peer. The idea that the White House will say, “Well folks, the spreadsheet says we’re at Step 3,” is pure fantasy.


And the core problem they keep dodging: who decides Russia violated the ceasefire?
Was it a drone? Artillery? A proxy unit? A “miscommunication”? Russia will drown every incident in ambiguity. By the time NATO finishes arguing over attribution, the ceasefire violation will be three news cycles old.


Clowns. Minsk didn’t fail because it lacked an escalation ladder. It failed because ceasefires don’t work when one side thinks continuing the war is still beneficial. No amount of laminated enforcement plans changes that.
So what is this really about?


Reassuring Western audiences. Signaling resolve. Giving officials something to point at and say, “This time we mean it.”
Moscow isn’t intimidated by press conferences, timelines, or PowerPoint arrows. It’s intimidated by battlefield realities and unavoidable costs—neither of which are created by a 72-hour countdown clock.


This is pure comedy, not deterrence. It’s role-playing toughness. And Russia has already skipped the tutorial and moved on to the main game.

Clowns.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m):
LordAdam16:
statement from president pezeshkian authorizing iran's participation in negotiations






erdogan is going to riyadh and cairo this week
the arabs and turks believe this is a new, unique, unprecedented opportunity to create the foundations of a new regional security architecture that excludes the israelis and unites the shia-shiite blocs

as always the qataris want to throw cash at iran to get them to be amenable to qatari interests
the turks see this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity

iran however only cares about a narrow nuclear deal where the us removes all sanctions, release frozen assets, and there are firm guarantees against a 2019 unilateral withdrawal repeat

the biggest losers so far are the israelis and europeans
the israelis for obvious reasons
the europeans because no one values their input
not the us, not the arabs, not the turks, and certainly not the iranians
the 🤡 show of kaja, merz, macron have destroyed european credibility on the iran file




the israelis and beltway hawks are still very optimistic about a war
from their perspective, negotiations serve two functions:
1. the loudmouth gets to acquire political legitimacy for war. everyone even the grandma at home will be aware that they tried everything to avoid war. war would seem like the option of last resort because the evil iranians refused to make a deal.
2. talks close off the possibility of an iranian pre-emptive strike while they are reinforcing their positions. consequently, they can derail talks and start the war whenever they're ready without any risk.




on the question of what concessions the persians are willing to make

the only public concession floated is from admiral shamkhani, former secretary of the nsc, former chief of the irgc navy, and one of the few survivors from the negotiating team that was targeted in the 12d war

the admiral said the enrichment level of the 60% uranium can be reduced to 20%

removal of highly enriched uranium which had been seen as a viable concessions has been publicly shot down




as i repeated yesterday
the bottleneck remains israel
i don't think the loudmouth has it in him to sign a deal that the israelis severely oppose

i think he has agreed to negotiations as a way to cover his a$$ when this sh*t blows up
because then whatever happens, someone else will be the scapegoat
if the israelis try to derail and f*ck it up, it is netanyahu's fault
if a war starts and they predictably get f*cked up, it is the fault of hegseth and the pentagon generals who were given all the time in the world and all the assets available of a trillion dollar military and couldn't make it count
but if sh*t works, he gets credit




all reports about demands and concessions should be taken with a grain of salt until the weekend/early next week

witkoff meets the israelis today and the iranians will be coordinating with their allies

-Lord
Your write-ups always excite the best of geopolitical minds. But, allow me to add to this with some facts.


Firstly, Erdogan going to Riyadh and Cairo in the same week is not random. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt don’t suddenly trust each other—but they all share one interest right now: avoiding a regional war that wrecks trade, energy routes, and cause internal stability. That’s the real driver. Talk of a brand-new “security architecture” sounds promising, but in reality this is about coordination and damage control, not a NATO-style alliance. They have seen the resolve from the Iranian side on this occasion – if we burn, the entire region will burn. They understood Iran’s readiness for total war and they're not prepared for the repercussions.


Secondly, I think the idea of a united Shia–Sunni bloc is also overstated. These aforementioned Gulf states are not aligning with Iran ideologically. They’re just hedging. After the 2019 Abqaiq, followed by Gaza, and Red Sea disruptions, they’ve learned that escalation hurts them first and the most affected. Qatar throwing money at Iran fits its usual playbook—cash to buy influence and keep fires away from its backyard.
On Iran, you’re very correct. Tehran’s demands haven’t changed since Trump jump ship in 2018: full sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and iron clad guarantees the US can’t walk away again.


Everything else is noise. The 60% → 20% enrichment “concession” sounds big to the public, but technically it changes nothing. As long as enrichment capability exists, levels can be raised again quickly. That’s why Iran has already rejected removing highly enriched uranium—doing so would actually reduce their leverage.



Europe being sidelined in all of these is well deserved and self-inflicted. Since 2018, the EU promised Iran economic relief and delivered almost nothing because it couldn’t shield companies from US sanctions. That’s why neither Tehran nor Washington takes European mediation seriously anymore. They made matters worse for themselves recently by designating the IRGC a terrorist organization.


Where this really bottlenecks is Israel—but not just as an obstacle. Israel is also the main escalation trigger. As long as talks are ongoing, any unilateral Israeli strike risks being seen as blowing up diplomacy outright. That limits Israel’s freedom of action more than people admit. An attack by Israel now would prompt those Gulf states jostling for peace to respond angrily and make good their commitment to close their airspace and territories in toto. In fact, such a unilateral Israeli spoiler could tear down the Abraham Accord and cause some states to withdraw. So, whichever way this turns out, it won't favour Israel. Except if they can get the Americans to launch the attack.


As for the “loudmouth,” this looks less like leadership and more like political insurance. Negotiations buy time and shift blame:
If talks fail → Iran refused peace
If Israel derails them → Netanyahu’s fault
If war goes badly → Pentagon and generals take the hit
If something works → he (Trump )takes the credit
That's Classic Washington blame-management.


Bottom line is, this isn’t about a historic deal or a new Middle East order. It’s about who gets blamed when things go wrong. Until we see what comes out after the weekend, every “leak” about concessions should be treated as positioning, not outright reality.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:38pm On Feb 03
shoodboi2:
As usual, he has nothing to say. grin grin grin
Like I said earlier. grin
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:37pm On Feb 03
shoodboi2:
Why are you afraid to mention what Putin did? Of course, you cannot say Putin did anything. The mentions of Putin, which you are struggling hard to make a big deal out of, were of Epstein talking to others about the many times he unsuccessfully tried setting up meetings with Putin.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/jeffrey-epstein-files-vladimir-putin-russia-b2911750.html

Instead of you hanging onto straws, why don't you talk about more factual news related to the file, including Epstein's close relationship with Israel and Mossad, and that photo of Prince Andrew leaning over a girl child and the other one child slept on the bed.
I sometimes wonder if some of you don't have anything else to do with your spare time than spending it freely replying senseless posts.

When you're dealing with folks who are wired to defend the lie and dismiss obvious reality no matter the facts presented, the best thing is just ignore them.

Most times, I don't even read their posts.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:18pm On Feb 03
LordAdam16:
the day this guy go die

devil go start dey complain

why una dey send dis werey come my end?

-Lord
He reminds me of John McCain.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:12pm On Feb 02
emmaodet:
So Jolani came to russia with request and they won't sell him weapons, won't borrow him money nor will they have a military base in souther syria BECAUSE the Isrealis won't accept it.
Why do i find the last answer funny?
I don't even know who Iran should rely on between China and Russia honestly.
There is nothing funny about it.

This is geopolitics where emotions takes the back seat and strategic interests towers above all.

You can't be the servant of one master that's profiting from you and expect another master to take responsibilities for your security needs.

Jolani should get Turkey to do his dirty jobs in the South and provide him with the weapons he needs.

He can never get and shouldn't expect the same level of favours and ready-to-die commitment Russia accorded Assad, the same man he overthrown.

By the time Israel and the US are done with him, he go know say Erdogan no get allies.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:43pm On Feb 01
Freshandfitpod:
you have high hope for iran?? You are sleeping on the wheels my guy

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