₦airaland Forum

bewla:
You wicked why serv this on a valentine day

I only gave my own personal projection based on reality on ground.

criminalmindz:
@op.

Don't expect someone to contest 4 times and loose again
We saw it with Buhari.
Even Izayamu will rule edo one day.

I understand you. But the pulse of the country and the dynamics don't favor Atiku TBH

Dapson73:
I agree with most of your analysis but i believe you overrated Obi's performance most especially in the south east and south south.

I still feel LP will do well in south east. Can't tell about south south

This Is My Projection for this month election.
This projection is based on current reality and dynamics of present political settings.
A lot has changed since 2019 election especially the Dynamics.
But i will be givibg my projection based on the following.
1. The candidates
2. The pulse or mood of the country. Voters turn out, Party structure
Please note that this is subjected to changes until the D election. So i will give my projection region by region and may break them down into states.

SOUTH WEST.


OGUN STATE: with an APC governor and the fact that the APC candidate is a son of the soil will deliver a possible 65-70% of the votes. PDP not strong in Ogun and labour party doesn't have any real presence here. APC 65% PDP 20% LP 15%
OYO STATE: is ruled by PDP but the governor is among the G5 governors of PDP that renegade against the PDP presidential candidate. Feelers already has it that the G5 governors are working for Tinubu's emergence. And the Oyo governor is already scheming to trade the presidential votes in his state for his reelection for second term. APC to get 65% here while PDP 20%, labour 15%.
OSUN STATE. Also a PDP state. The governor is firmly an Atiku fan but he will not be able to stop the APC from taken at least 70% of the votes here. While PDP will score %15, labour will get 15% here.
EKITI STATE. An APC state with key players in both parties working for APC. Ex gov, Fayemi who stepped down for Tinubu in the APC primaries is firmly working with the governor to deliver the state. While another ex gov Fayose who is a PDP leader in the state is also working to deliver votes to Tinubu.
There is little or no presence of labour party in the state. APC 70-75% PDP 15% LP 15.
ONDO STATE. An APC controlled state is the swing state of the south west. One can most times not predict the direction the state will vote as APC lost the presidential election here. Unless there is a significant change here, APC may not win here convincingly So in Ondo, APC %50, PDP 25, LP 20% others %5.
Lagos. The headquarters of APC south. The party has not really won the state convincingly. This is the state APC presidential candidate made his name and consolidated his achievements. Though there are many forces against his victory. Here APC %50. LP 35% PDP %10 others 5%.

SOUTH SOUTH.

DELTA STATE. A PDP stronghold. The VP is from the state. Though he has quite a lot of battle to fight to successfully deliver block vote to his party. He has fallen out with his godfather ibori too and APC look like ..has penetrated the state. The APC got over 25% in the region and won some assembly and senate seats too in 2019 election. With the increasing popularity of LP candidate in the state too, block votes here is looking almost impossible. APC 25%, PDP 40% LP 35%
BAYELSA STATE. A PDP state and ex president Jonathan state too. The PDP is still the strongest party here even though it lost the last gov election to APC but got it back through the court. Here PDP 40%, APC 18% LP42%
AKWA IBOM STATE. A PDP state. But will be largely threatened by LP. The governor here is a strong ATIKU ally with APC structure here shakky despite the presence of ex gov Akpabio. Here APC to get 20% PDP 45% LP 35%
CROSS RIVER STATE. An APC state. The governor has vowed to deliver the state to Tinubu. But even at that, the APC will still not win the state. It has been a traditional PDP state. Here APC will get 25-35%, PDP 30% LP 35-40.
RIVERS STATE: A tradition PDP state too. Its governor is the leader of the G5 govs against ATIKU. He has already showed sign that he is supporting the emergence of Tinubu. Here APC to get 30% PDP 30% Labour party 40%.
EDO STATE: PDP has a strong structure here with a governor. However, APC too has a deep structure here led by ex gov Oshomole. The state has always given the APC 30% AND IT will not change. The only changes here will be in introduction of LP which will harm the PDP. APC 30%, PDP 35%, LP 35%

SOUTH EAST .

IMO STATE. An APC state. But even at that, Labour Party still has an edge here. Obi will get the bulk of the votes here. APC 25% PDP 20% LP 55%
ABIA STATE. Another PDP state. Though its gov is among the G5 govs, it may likely work for PDP due to the death of his choice successor. Labour Party still have an edge here. APC 20-25, PDP 25% LP 55-60%
EBONYI STATE: a traditional PDP state. Though presently ruled by an APC gov. Labour party will still edge this state.
Here APC 25% PDP 10% LP ... 65%
ENUGU STATE: the headquarter of PDP states in south east. Its gov is among the G5 govs. His godfather chimaroke is working for Tinubu emergence but LP will dominate here. APC 15-25%, PDP 20%, LP %65.
ANAMBRA STATE: the home state of LP candidate. He is expected to sweep here even though PDP always sweep here in previous election. APC 9%, PDP 1O% LP 81%. APGA O%

NORTH CENTRAL.

ABUJA: APC lost this place to PDP last election. It may do badly here too but it might not significantly harm them bBecause of LP. here APC 30%, PDP 35% LP 35.
NASARAWA STATE: an APC state with both Christians and muslims. Religion may be a factor here. APC 40%, PDP 35% LP 20% NNPP %5
PLATUE STATE: an APC state and also the state of APC presidential DG. Just like nasarawa, religion and tribe will play a major factor here. APC 35%, PDP 25% LP 35 others 5%.
KOGI STATE: An APC state. And also the state of PDP campaign spome person Dinno Malaye. Here APC 50% PDP 30%, LP 15% Others 5%.
KWARA STATE: An APC state. Though PDP has a presence in the state with ex gov saraki still available, labour little or no presence. Here APC 65% PDP 30, LP 10% NNPP 5%.
BENUE STATE. A PDP state. Its gov has vowed not to work for Atiku. But APC has a strong presence with ex gov George Akume still a big factor. with APC having a Popular gov candidate, APC 40% 40% PDP 20%.
NIGER STATE: A state with an APC governor and senators. But president Buhari will not be on the ballot here. PDP are fairly strong here too. and NNPP may get a chunk here. APC 40%, PDP 40% NNPP 15% LP 10%

NORTH EAST

GOMBE STATE: an APC state, here APC 50%, PDP 35% NNPP 10% Others 5%
TARABA STATE: A PDP state. Religion and tribe has always defined vote ..here. PDP won the state at both fed and state level in 2019 election. Here, APC will score 30%, PDP 35%, LP 25% NNPP 10% OTHERS 5%
BORNO: An APC state and the home state of APC presidential candidate. Here APC 60%, PDP 28%, LP8, NNPP, 12%
ADAMAWA: The home state of PDP presidential candidate. He won the 2019 election here by the whiskers but president Buhari is not on the ballot here. APC to get 25%, PDP %60, LP 7% NNPP 7%.
YOBE STATE. An APC state. Here APC will slighly edge PDP. APC 45% PDP 40% LP 1% NNPP %10 others 4%
BAUCHI: PDP state. Here PDP will take this state. Though APC has a strong presence here. APC 30%, PDP 60% LP 10% NNPP, 10%

NORTH WEST

ZAMFARA STATE. Here all the ex governors are in APC. the state is predominantly APC. However, PDP has slight presence here. APC 50%, PDP 30% LP, 5% NNPP 15%
KADUNA STATE: A dynamic state. Presently ruled by an APC governor and a henchman of Tinubu campaign el rufai. The state is also the home state of Labour party candidate. No buhari on the ballot here means APC will get 35%, PDP 35% LP 15%, NNPP 15%
KEBBI STATE. Here the APC and PDP will slug it out even though it is an APC STATE. . APC 35% PDP 35% NNPP 15% Others 15%
JIGAWA: is also an APC state and both APC and PDP will slug it out, with Kwankwanso also in the mix with them.
KASTINA STATE. An APC state and also the home state of president Buhari. Buhari is not on ballot here and PDP has a strong presence here. APC 40% PDP40%, NNPP 10% Others 10%.
KANO state. APC state. But APC will not dominate here because president Buhari is not on ballot and presence of kwankwanso. APC30%, PDP 25% NNPP 30%, Others 15%.
SOKOTO STATE: A PDP State. However, APC also have a strong presence here with ex governor Wamako a strong pillar in the state.
APC 35% PDP 40% NNPP 15% Others 5%.

Based on present dynamics, voter's turn out, candidates on the ballot, pulse of the nation and party structure

APC 1st position
PDP Second position
LP 3rd position
NNPP 4Th position.

Obi will not get 1.2 million votes in north. He will not get up to even 400 thousand in north west and east. His major votes in north will come from central and he will not get up to 800,000 votes.

In total, I also don't seen h getting up to 4.5 million total votes. I don't. Know this and know peace this people

This is very sad and unfortunate.

Why are Obidients so disrespectful and insulting? Why?

Funny enough a wood in that shrine is greater than the entire career of psquare.

In the past, only candidates were insulted during elections.

Today, obidients insults and bully their fellow voters.

This has to stop. Else, it will graduate to physical attacks and when it does, na the same obidients go lose because they are in the minority compare to the mikanos and Agbados

Joevics:
Lol. South east will have the highest turn out this election.
Southwest will have low turnout, especially amongst Tinubu supporters who believe he would win by rigging.

IPOB has already stated that they are not against the election.

How can south west have the lowest turn out when it has its son in the ballot?

The south east is supposed to have highest turnout since the introduction of card reader, but IPOB and its factions have threatened election in the east.

While election will still hold in the east, the turn out will be low using Anambra state election as example.

MY PROJECTION FOR VOTERS TURN OUT DURING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

This month election will witness voters Apathy. The signs are there already. Forget all the talks of new voters registration and willingness to vote. It is no different from other elections. In fact, in 2019 election, more people(15million people or more registered for PVC more than 2023 election(11.5million) and my projection for voters turn out for this year's election is, it is going to be just some few percentage higher than last year election.

There are many reasons why voters' turnout will be low in this year's election.

In north especially core north(north west and east) there is likely going to be low turn out compare to 2015 and 2019 elections. This is largely because there is no candidate the core north are so enthusiastic about like they have been with president Buhari for over two decades. While Kwankwanso is building his brand and prime to follow president Buhari lead as the beautiful bride of northern politics, he still has a long way to go. Meanwhile, Atiku might be the dark horse of northern politics, but the core Northerners have never hidden the fact that he is not their cup of tea. Couple with the fact that the pulse of the country favors a southern President, the north are not as enthusiastic to either stay in power like they were when they reclaimed the seat from Jonathan in 2015.

In south, there is likely going to be voter's Apathy in south east. It is even getting likely by the day with the threat of "no election" by secessionist group. While many may play down the threats, the voters' turn out in last year's Anambra election all but confirm the danger of seeing Apathy in a region notorious for their lack of interest in elections.

Meanwhile, there are chances that there will be huge voters' turnout in south west and south south. This may be because of the presence of southern candidates like Tinubu, Peter Obi and Okowa on the ballot. Again also due to the pulse of the country that favors southern presidency

While Peter obi was supposed to cash in on the block votes south east always delivers, the threat of no election by secessionists may likely shred the number of votes he may likely get in the region.

Last election saw less than 29millon total votes, 2015 election saw less than 27millon total votes, this year's election will likely see less than 31 million total votes. Which represents less than 30% of eligible voters on INEC portal.

May Nigeria Succeed.

Amen.

This month election will be funny and interesting in 3 key states of the country.
LAGOS, KANO be very interesting, but the one that promises more drama and intrigue is certainly Rivers state.

A traditional PDP stronghold, Rivers state will witness many climax and Anti climax in 3 weeks time. The state has a PDP governor who is in loggerheads with the leadership of the party over the zoning of key leadership position in the party and has since distanced himself from the Party's presidential election preparation

He had promised to announce his preferred candidate before January elapse but, he later backtracked and instead said he didn't say he will announce so on camera.

Meanwhile, there have been confirmed report of governor Wike and APC presidential candidate Tinubu meeting severally and from the governor's actions and statements, he has already to diss PDP candidate Atiku for Tinubu on the presidential election.

On the flip-side, his predecessor Ameachi whom he has never seen eye to eye is an APC member ... and chieftain. He has never hidden the fact that Tinubu is not his cup of tea since 2018. The APC presidential primary election outcome has further deeping their animosity. Ameachi is currently showing subtle sign that he is working towards Peter Obi victory in the state. Since the campaign started, he has only attended one APC campaign in Bauchi. He singlehandedly made Tonye cole APC River state governorship candidate. He knows that majority in his state doesn't fancy his Party APC and he is very aware that new kid in the block Labour Party look favorite to win River state with @least 35-40%, he is reportedly romancing Labour party to get the obidient votes for Tonye cole, flipping the coin, He will support Labour party for the presidential election.

It is going to be an interesting presidential and governorship election in that state. If everything is missing, anti party activities will definitely not be missing among party faithfuls and key political players of the state.

The politicians in the state here are not after their party's victory at the federal level. They are after the state election first for them.
For now it is about you rub my back, I rub yours

But the real loser here is certainly going to be PDP. Its block votes in the state will be shredded into 3.

Rivers state is definitely the state to watch out for running behind it is Kano state.

Said Baba.
May Tinubu succeed.

May Nigeria Succeed.

Amen

Been waiting for this.

Na only you day give near perfect prediction

FatherOfJesus:
dreamer

Una no sabi politics.

Una no even understand the mood in the country that favors southern presidency that even the northern governors in APC are working very hard to deliver.

Una eyes go soon clear.

I m a Nigerian. An Igbo man and a Catholic. I am voting next year for the betterment of Nigeria in my opinion not for religion.

I do not fault your choice to vote against MM ticket as you have the full right to do so.

However, come next month, I m voting Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Shettima.

I m dam too exposed to vite along Tribal and religious line.

This us the reason why anytime I see a Yoruba person supporting Peter obi, I feel fulfilled because I know for certain that we are definitely going to get to that stage where a Christian will become the Governor of Kano state, a Muslim become the governor of Anambra state,.

And hopefully, we will see where an ignoman defeats an Hausa man in Kastina election and a Yoruba man defeats an Igbo man in Enugu elections.

Say no to tribal and religious politics.

APC will get 40% in Kano. Kwankwanso is popular, but the most popular politician in Kano politics still remain Buhari. Buhari and an incumbent governor will make Tinubu get 40% from Kano.

Kwankwanso struggled to give Atiku 20% in 2019.

Again, Tinubu delivered 59% to Buhari in 2015/2019 in Lagos, Buhari will do same for him next month in kastina.

As for Kaduna, close to call between APC and PDP. but I see APC taking it.

Oyo, Tinubu will dominate it 70%

Delta, Tinubu to get 20-25%.

All were former governors.

Tinubu performed better than Keankwanso and peter Obi.

Tinubu is by far a better leader than all the contestants.

By far.

Never.

I am not gonna try it.

I am voting my conscience. And my conscience says ASIWAJU

Kyase:
This 2023 go change a lot
The relationship between Igbo and Yoruba will never remain the same
The north will make a statement and everybody go know where e belong
Left for the next president to unit the country, which it won't work
Bad blood has been established already and it will take years to correct it
The good thing is, everybody go respect himself and e host from may 29

True.
Too many bad blood everywhere. All because Buhari won the last election.

Kyase:
The tweet is already been passed in 3 northerner groups I am in now, actually saw it there first set

Guys dey para, funny enough na voice note dem dey drop and e no sweet to hear

I know so. But at the end, we must stop all these bigotry. E no good abeg

Kyase:
I hope una go drag am the way una drag brymo too
Brymo need to apologies sha

I am not dragging brymo o. He did wrong even though he was pushed to the wall after abidients refused to respect his choice of candidates.

But this psquare guy just blatantly insulted the northerners.
Personally I will be looking at how they will react to this revelation.

But this P square tweet along go add to demarketing of peter obi for North.

This is very unfortunate.

I am Igbo and I totally condemn Brymo. I understand he was pushed to make such comment about Ndi Igbo. But he was supposed to understand that Obedients are not entirely igbos even though igbos make up more of the supporters.

But they also refused to respect his choice of candidate.

Meanwhile, Psquaere guys especially this one was not insulted or mob about his political choice. Instead he insulted the northerners as this post captured.

This is even despite he grew up among the northerners.

This is bad. Very bad. Very very.

We must say no to all these rubbish bigotry

[quote author=DMerciful post=119962990]If Obj wanna pull him down he could have. Does Tinubu commanded any forces then?[/quotep]

Your matter don tire me jare

DMerciful:
GEJ never investigated him. Even Obj wasnt focused on him during his time.

A drug lord and super corrupt character can only be SW president not Nigeria

Na why you guys struggle in politics. The same man OBJ confirmed in his book that he tried to pull down by all means possible?

Or the same man GEJ so much investigated?

Smh

DMerciful:
Tinubu is super corrupt, shady(unknown background), and a fraud. Providence will never allow him to be president

All the candidates has got one baggage or the order.

Now I ask you, Tinubu has been tried and investigated by two Presidents( Jonathan and OBJ) That hated his guts. Two Presidents that succeeded in humiliating any of their perceived enemies, yet nothing was found on him.

There must be evidence to prove that he is corrupt.

Meanwhile, informed voters many of whom are silent majority will still vote next month and he is the likeliest to emerge president.

mrvitalis:
Reasonable people are having intellectual discussion ...urchins like you should keep away ...now run to your cave

It is your choice to call me whatever you like. You have made your choice and may haveade your projections.

I am not here to get involved with you on name calling. You can do that for all I care. I don't get involve looking for likes on my comments either.

My choice has been made and my own projection has Tinubu as likely winner of the election with Atiku a close second.

If you like call me names and get the 300 likes you are looking for

DMerciful:
Tinubu will never be president. He will likely be arrested for causing nuisance after February

I know your moniker very well. You said Buhari will never be president.

Buhari is leaving as a two term president.

Can't you lots do your projections to see that it is either Atiku or Tinubu presidency with Tinubu the likely winner?

Personally I don't even mind who win though I will vote Tinubu because of his performance as a governor.

Whoever wins will get my support as a patriotic Nigerian.

ubest1:
Keep deceiving urself, this the first time the IGBO's are going to come out passionately to vote

That is what you all said during Anambra election and less than 200k votes was recorded.

Without IPOB madness in 2015 and 2019 we couldn't record 3m votes.

Now that IPOB have gone nut?

mrvitalis:
Sanwo olu deserves the relelection the APC guy should make name serve as our minister for 3 and half years then let's see his performance

He seems sound , with obi known to give people freedom to work ...I know he would perform well as a minister

Umiah would be my ideal minister of works but Lagos labour candidate fit the Bill too

He already won the election just like his benefactor.

mrvitalis:
President .........LP Peter obi
Governor ......... APC tonye Cole or accord dumo
Lulu Briggs
Senate ............. PDP
Rep .................. PDP
Statee house.. PDP

Presidency : Tinubu
Governor: Sanwo Olu.
Senate: APC
Rep: APC
State house election: LP.

No one is insulting her o. Make joke sylva attend one of Tinubu gathering and see the emotional mobs in action.

South east will never produce up to 3million votes

This is by far the fairest projection gojngvjnto the election.

Kudos

myoddsng:
The Vice Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, Datti Baba-Ahmed broke down in tears during the Town Hall meeting organized by Channels Television while speaking about insults directed at his family by political opponents.

During the event, which was held on Sunday night, Baba-Ahmed recalled how his family and the memory of his late father became objects of ridicule by political opponents.

He said his family background became the target of attack by these opponents soon after he joined the LP Presidential ticket and took on those who spread misconceptions and falsehoods about his principal, Mr Peter Obi

He said, “When I joined the ticket, I impeached certain lies against him (Peter Obi) and particularly my good friend on the APC side on the same level. You know when people think they have money, they have power, and the sitting authority is theirs.

“Someone has to tap them on the shoulder. I did and told him to do it and I will do three you know I am capable of doing it.

“However I and my family have been paying a huge price for my attempts to rescue Nigeria. They sent all sorts of people after me.


“I would have been much happier if only they stopped at me as an individual…”

One of the Presidential Campaigns had in one of its public engagements cast aspersions on the Mauritanian heritage of the VP candidate who is a Nigerian from Kaduna State.

Baba-Ahmed became emotional and had to be excused as he stepped off the set to get himself together before he returned.

M