₦airaland Forum

bayooz:
Like i said earlier. This is GX470. It shares almost the same chassis with Prado GX, 4runner, tundra and sequoia.
Looking through websites abroad, i discovered that many people are no more buying the tubes under GX470 because of its unpredictability.
Hence, there are two choices.
1st Blistein coil springs and shocks (if the shocks are bad)
2nd Coil springs from 4runner.
I chose the 2nd choice since my shocks are OK.
When GX470 is fully balanced and in normal mode the pressure balloons stand at 1.5inch height. So, you lose nothing with the 1.5 inch coil springs. It is 6 step coil spring.
With industrial jack, we lifted one side up and removed the tire. We parked up the side, remove the tire,and disconnected the shock and removed the balloon. Replacing instantly with the coil spring, connected back the shock wire harness and fixed back the tire.
We did same for the other side. Good to go.
The small jack you see was used to free in the coil springs.
i could recollect that both springs cost #8000.
Workmanship #2000.
i supervised everything with the steps downloaded from websites.

Mcy56:
The bolded is not achievable with Customer like you sir. When last did you buy or sell? Lol. Na joke o.
You are right with if they'd made it 50%. The 100% is actually high.

dipoolowoo:
VIDEO: Fire Guts UAC Building in Marina Lagos
https://businesspost.ng/2019/01/24/video-fire-guts-uac-building-in-marina-lagos/

The situation has been brought under control.

maishai:
Africa is a developing continent, with a huge need for infrastructural development (every tom dick and harry is thinking and talking of building something)....Cement happens to be the sole material used for binding in construction, but the nature of cement is such that It is extemely expensive to transport especially by road and the equipement to produce it is also prohibitly expensive......enter chinese technology, the chinese have crashed the procurement of a fully integrated cement plant from about $3 billion to $600 million.......(Dangote was the first to key into this, he now has has about 10 lines in his Nigeria Operations, the opportunity to key into dangote for me is gone).....................CCNN is gathering momentum to take off and Larfarge is on the mark.........You can easily break even in 3 years operating this chinese plants compared to others............High quality Limestone the chief raw material in cement is mainly concentrated in Nigeria along the west african coast, other countries with comparable grade have seen Dangote site production unit in this countries........So the future is CEMENT EXPORT to neighbouring Countries,,,,,,,,,All cement plant locations in Nigeria are situated in Good enough places to supply neighouring countries, also unlike Rice, frozen foods & Vegetable oil, Cement can never be smuggled into country profitably.............I wait to see how this 3 companies will interplay.......Dangote has consistently paid more than #6 dividend the past 5 years.........I will wait for fullyear report from wapco,,,,,Let me see If they are really ready for business or want to continue the mago mago of paying dividend as debt servicing to Parent company......

onegentleguy:
U might be having a wrong view of things with the parts in bold my dear. ...and here's why;
LAFARGE' current FX denominated loans are HEDGED.
The company learnt a bitter lesson after it had a combined FX related loss of near N37B between 2016 to 2017.
What it has now done is to seek fx cover/protection for its dollar related loans from the CBN. ...which was done using a non-deliverable forward contract format.
The interpretation of this is that LAFARGE is also well covered should the CBN decide to devalue the Naira later this year.
Other positive for the coy include;
1) The company's cost line accrued from their high debt burden should further ease out as near 70% of the current rights proceed shall be subjected to delaveraging.
Current efforts on restructuring should also help to curb down their cost and expense line(opex, admin exp) which has been a major drag on the coys earnings line. A cursory look at the coys Q3 2018 financial print, and u will observe that there was a moderation in the usual pressure from some of these cost input.
In the past I have always said that one of the greatest challenge with LAFARGE is the issue of COST MANAGEMENT & OPTIMIZATION. ...so the importance of this line can not be over emphasized.

2) The company's South African arm which hitherto has had a repeated negative GROSS and EBITDA MARGIN is now back in the positive territory, following a better performance in Q3 2018. This should 'serve some breath of fresh air' to LAFARGE AFRICA(the group) given that the running of that arm has also eaten deep into the coys overall earnings.

That said, I am also of the view that the weight with its negative still outweighs the positives.
I am particularly worried about the coys finance expense(which was up by near 35% YoY), and ensured a negative PAT, despite a gap up in revenue on the back of an increase in sales to over N72 B !! That line may likely witness even more pressure given that the company also plans to expand either of their Shagamu or Ashaka plant. So I expect a little more strain in their cost line. ...particularly CoS and FC and ultimately GROSS and PBT MARGIN.(short term in view)
Unless of course, the company decides to sell/divest from its SA arm and fund the expansion/construction from the generated cashflow.
Then again is the worry over the impact of significant dilution that the on-going rights issue will give rise to. The company's OS is expected to see an addition of over 7.4B shares ...which in the short term will impact on the coys ROE, EPS and EM.
See other worries from the post above.

At its Friday's closure price N12.80, the stock presents an MoS discount to tap from. ...'cause using a mix of valuation model, I have a FV estimate of N19.50.
Which presents the possibility of a 52% price appreciation to market. However, my worries over the present risk inherent in the coy can well surmount that discount.
So is the equity price of LAFARGE cheap at the moment? ...YES. Especially if ur investment perspective is that of the long term.
Is there a possibility that it can get cheaper? ...YES.
So I'll prefer to take a few more drug of patience with this coy. ...we believe that the coys financial print for FY 2018 and Q1 2019 will give a clearer guide on the right way to go !!

My inference;
Sometimes, cheap might be expensive. ...and at other times, a seeming discount might actually be a premium.

My advise;
Pls follow ur instinct.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be interpreted to mean any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

maishai:
IN retrospect ,CCNN fortunes changed when BUA owned by abdulsamad rabiu came in, thing is the moment the price flew from #6 range to #30 range coincided with the time the new 3mmt plant in sokoto started production..... This plant dwarfed the older plant on all metrics( cost, capacity utilization,efficiency etc),,,,,,,
Something similar might happen with wapco, they have aquired ashaka cem & unicem from flour mills @ strategic points in the country for cement sales far from Dangote...... THEY have started the upgrade of Ashaka cem( slowed down a bit as a result of boko haram in gombe environs), I dont have much info on unicem...

At #2300 a bag of cement, there is chance for a thirld revolution in the cement industry......I will patiently wait, @ the close of the rights issue wapco price will definitely go down as old investors who didnt take their rights cut losses....... I will wait till full year to see whether their hugh sales revenue has started trinkling down to investors then make the ultimate move

aremso:
Gurus, the below mail was what i sent to morgan and the sender of the hike in chrages mail called me this morning and was saying that the tone of my mail was rather harsh on morgan. pls have i said something bad here?


Sir,

this thing will not fly and is never acceptable, i joined your firm not quite long and i have moved all my trading money from my former broker to Morgan based on the recommendation from some one but now you are increasing your charges by 100% after i have moved over to Morgan pls Sir, this will never fly with me and i will also cascade the message to my other colleagues to vehemently resist your 100% hike. Am just taking risk with my money in your polaris bank and yet all you can do is to add additional fear again to the risk am taking with. Oga, that will never fly by God grace.

Mpeace:
Meanwhile, deruggedprof just dey peep from time to time. He no want comment this year.

PythonDancer:
Please inform us of that “elsewhere”.
We wey go follow you plenty

Northeastern:
Flesh and blood did not reveal this to you.

Plus the fact that the brain behind the low commission is late. You see why we can't build businesses that outlive the owners in this part of the world. The day Aliko passes, all his businesses will start looking down. I am just imagining how the refinery at Lekki will become moribund upon his passing.

freeman67:
It seems there is a Morgan Capital Group agent monitoring this thread.. A discussion of service charge just took place here and the next thing I see in my inbox is a mail notifying me of slight increase.. It is either someone is sent to come and fly that topic to sample opinions.

aremso:
Please how do i access this?

yok:
NIGERIA STOCK MARKET GENERAL COMMENT /MSCI POSITION (NSE STOCK MARKET WEATHER REPORT) - FOR 15 JANUARY 2019

MSCI Nigeria sold only 2 equities (details for subscribers only) and has just taken up 16,981,341units rights of Lafarge.

Market breadth was draw 11 gainers 11 losers, but the all share index fell by 0.45%, close of today will tell us what the week will look like. Big players are not expected to do much this week as a major news event (MPC) is on the way.

Market still expected to trade sideways/lower for the day. Likely some news readers will buy early in the early trading season, while the real players are expected to close the day downwards.


Our trade selection still remain same as yesterday (details of entry, exit/stop loss available to subscribers only)

For Tuesday 15 January 2019 projection for the Nigeria All Share Index, expected High is 30,077.10 Low at 29771.10

From this year, I will start talking about companies that are likely to be takeover/merger candidates. They are many companies that will fall in this category and will be a worthwhile research. Especially when they are trading at a very low point that our maximum loss is within 15% to 20% range. For this I will be posting more in our twitter handle.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan).
N:B


1. Due to the fact so many new people are coming to this forum and may not know this use of following the “big monies that move markets”, I will be indicating why/how to use the information. This will be a permanent future of my post to reduce some comments which may prevent the people that understand the system from confusion by people who have not followed how this started. My comment for today for anybody who doubts the efficacy of following the fund is to look at my recent recommendations for the past 2 months.

2. The fund will still hold some equity, the terms of service states this. Thus no matter the condition of the market, it will not liquidate to Zero, unless the fund is exiting from the particular Country involved. This is an equity fund investing in the Nigeria market. The date displayed may not be the actual date of purchase/sale of equity (this is legal and allowable under the regulations guiding funds operations in general).

3. You cannot bear losses like the fund. The pocket of the fund is too deep. Therefore, as an individual you are not suppose to be in the market during the stock market crash. Before or during the crash, reduce your holding.

4. If you are seeing this type of data on MSCI Nigeria for the first time. You may need to verify the figures. Go to my previous posts (https://www.nairaland.com/yok/posts), you will see the various sources where the data can be verified. Get us at twitter https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget

Yayira:
Morgan dey help our ministry but one has to be careful leaving cash in their account..
I prefer brokers that are subsidiary of a bank but they charge too much!

BMZK:
i hope it is not technical man made issue. MM can decide to put the trading on hold waiting for their accounts to be credited in order to buy at their target price. Everything is possible!!! Welcome to Naija.

Mcy56:
Can't forsee any violence in the coming election cos both strong contenders are from the North, either way, the North wins.
Just hope there'll be peace from the SE by God's grace. Mpeace is tasked with the responsibility to ensuring peace reign there. Lol

onegentleguy:
Following my last post on the ACCESS/DIAMOND merger deal, I have received some mails requesting for more clarity on how best to KEY in/invest in both coys.
The best way to answer to that is to look at the possible discount to tap from(returns) before/pre and after/post merger.
In retrospect, the gap/difference between their current market prices(at any given point in time) to what they should actually sell for in relation to each other is the pre merger inherent discount, while that between the current market price to the effective allotment price(their face value considering the merger terms) is the post merger inherent discount.
With computing this, I shall also give a realistic view of 'what may likely be playing out behind the scenes' with respect to the merger/aquisation deal.

A quick math;

On the ACCESS side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of ACCESS= N7.45(this was calculated yesterday)
Current market price of ACCESS= N5.30(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND= N3.47 ...using the formula: [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)] and inputting DIAMONDS yesterday closure price of N1.99.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 3.47 - 5.30= -N1.83
The negative sign means that the discount is an approx 34.5% premium.
...the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying N1.83 more buying ACCESS right now when the price of DIAMOND is N1.99 !!
Post merger inherent discount= 7.45 - 5.30= N2.15

On the DIAMOND side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13(merger valuation - cash consideration)
Current market price of DIAMOND= N1.99(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of DIAMOND should sell relative to that of ACCESS= N2.51 ...using the formula: [(2/7 X current market price of ACCESS) + 1] and inputting ACCESS' yesterday closure price of N5.30.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 2.51 - 1.99= 0.52
Which is an approx 26% discount.
Again the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying 52k less buying DIAMOND right now
when the price of ACCESS is N5.30 !!

So pre merger, DIAMOND presents the opportunity of a discount to tap from(ROI), while ACCESS presents none than a premium.
ACCESS however presents some value gap to tap from post merger. ...which presently stands at N2.15(7.45 - 5.30), an approx 40% upside potential.

My inference:
It makes sense to believe that pre merger, ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure, while DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure. ...until of course there is an equilibrium on their price relation or if their merger face value is achieved.
This should give u an idea of what might be playing out behind the scenes with respect to this deal.
A game/ploy to depress the price of ACCESS while mopping up DIAMOND pre merger and then exchanging it with ACCESS at a cheap before coming back with full force to mop up ACCESS post merger might not be far from been true.
...particularly because the terms therein shows a mutually inclusive and directly proportional entities.

Conclusion:
Pre merger, Mr DIAMOND wins while Mr ACCESS is subdued, while post merger Sir ACCESS 'resurrects' !!
Those who know and understand know how they need to 'play their cards'.

CAVEAT: This analysis is strictly for informational purpose only. It should only serve as a guide to further ur investing strategy with both coys, and NOT a recommendation.
...due diligence still applies.