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Austinkenneth's Posts

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Crime / Re: NDLEA Arrests Two At Lagos Airport For Drug Trafficking by austinkenneth: 3:41am On Jul 01
Igbos and drugs!

2 Likes

Politics / Re: Unmasking The Lies That Igbos Dominated Ex-President Jonathan’s Government by austinkenneth: 6:21am On Mar 26
Ok
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 8:40am On Mar 14
Mpeace:
You must follow us chop dividend whether you like or not. Because we still like you. Lol
Wait till after mark down.

Dividend by fire by force
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 8:25am On Mar 14
Zagee:


Big man like you? 😏

I'm stuck ooo. To sell now na wahala. Full offer but no takers.

I tire oo
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 6:56pm On Mar 13
I'm stuck in SEPLAT. What's going here. No movement. Anyone with new of the MPNU acquisition?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 6:22pm On Nov 21, 2023
Except in rare mispriced situations, I think it is more difficult to get deals in real estate than in stocks. The real estate market is much more efficient while cheap stocks abound.

The transaction costs are way higher in real estate compared to stocks (at least 10% agency and legal for both purchase and selling compared to 1.5% for stocks).

The capital outlay per investment is higher in real estate while in stocks you can invest small small (like with 140k as mentioned here).

In real estate you face a concentration risk because of the high capital outlay.

How about liquidity? Stocks can be easily liquidated compared to real estate and ploughed into a better stock investment as soon as you deem fit.

However, if chose stocks as your preferred, beware of the fact that you have chosen to be a LIFETIME STUDENT (I don't mind that personally). Adult education may not be easy at times.

You have to be watching and re-allocating your eggs in different baskets. That is the only way to convert 140k to 50m in 19 years, despite so many drawdowns, as has been mentioned here. ( i.e at least a 37% annualised return over such a long duration!).

Overall real estate, stocks and holding dollars are the best inflation/devaluation hedges in this country.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 7:03pm On Oct 23, 2023
Kreos44:
Is there any word on the street regarding GSK?
If they have changed mind, they should tell us.

The GSK game is still on. Though not much talked about in this forum.
All you need tondo is to have a look at the cash on their balance to gauge what is coming.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 7:00pm On Oct 23, 2023
Hogwarthtrades:




Got notified on friday and this morning FCMB and Zenith bank respectively.

Alert received for Access bank interim dividend

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 6:26am On Oct 21, 2023
Bukkydudu:



Still expecting mine since yesterday oooo

Also still expecting my Access bank interim dividend. Any others in this boat?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 7:21am On Oct 07, 2023
emmanuelewumi:
This is the dividend income growth and the total dividends earned in September 2023 by 2 of the investor from a Facebook group I belong to.



By the way, these are average guys. The first guy was a firefighter, while the second guy was in the US Navy for about 10 years before he retired

Can I join the group?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 7:13am On Oct 07, 2023
emmanuelewumi:



Exactly.


One of my mentees claimed to have made a total dividend of almost N2 million from January to September 2023, which is not bad for someone who started investing in the stock market about 10 years ago

An unassuming friend just collected 4.6m from UBA as interim dividend. He started investing only 3 years ago, during the COVID lockdowns. He came into the market with big money though.

9 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 8:39am On Sep 25, 2023
ogoo4real:
How I wish one can decide which way the mkt will go. But nevertheless tomorrow is most likely going to be like this...
Access bank vs UBA = Bears vs Bull

Some people will be waiting to pick up ACCESS lower. The company seems to be doing some underreporting.

6 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 6:32pm On Sep 22, 2023
mikeapollo:


There will still be the EGM for all minority shareholders to vote and decide. Otherwise, the whole process could be frustrated and truncated if another set of some minority shareholders should go to court and start another case.

I agree that only another fresh court case can stop this delisting but that is not what anybody would want to be doing right now against a company owned and controlled by the President's nephew (Wale Tinubu)

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 6:06pm On Sep 22, 2023
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1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 5:36pm On Sep 22, 2023
Frangel:


Correct.

But before that, this:

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36201_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2022.pdf

This document is confusing in my opinion.

First it states in section (IV) that:
An order directing that, if at the Court Ordered Meeting of the First Respondent, the Scheme
is approved by a majority representing not less than three-quarters (3/4) in value of the
shares held by the members being present and voting either in person or by proxy
, the
reports of the Court-Ordered meetings be presented to the Court within 30 days, for an Order
of this Honourable Court to sanction the Scheme.


This can be interpreted to mean that:
(a) OODP holding 57.4% of the votes will vote yes or no at the EGM meaning delisting is a done deal because they'll vote yes or
(b) OODP holding 57.4% of the votes will not vote yes or no for delisting at the EGM. In this case, the three 'minority' shareholders who hold 74%-57.4% = 16.6% will have at least about 40% (16.6%/42.6% = 39%) of the vote given that all other minority shareholders will not be present. This still represents a high odds for delisting at N7.07.
Please note that 4 shareholders hold 74%. Just one of them OODP holds 57.4% leaving 16.6% for the other three.


Secondly, in the last paragraph we have the statement:
Today, OODP has a shareholding of 57.37% in Oando PLC and the above-mentioned minority
shareholders 42.63% shareholding. This action precipitated by the petition from certain Oando
minority shareholders, if approved by all the minority shareholders at the court-ordered meeting
will result in a voluntary delisting of the Company’s shareholding on the NGX in accordance with
its guidelines for delisting of securities


This means ALL! the minority shareholders present must approve the delisting for it to happen. I think someone would come back to tell us that this is not the intention or the spirit of the writers of this doc or the court ( this is now looking like the 25% of Abuja brouhaha grin grin grin grin)

1 Like 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 2:00pm On Sep 22, 2023
mikeapollo:


A lot of people don't really understand the whole story. But as typical Nigerians, they are just quick to form conspiracy theories especially if one big rich man or politician is involved e.g."Tinubu" .
I am not a fan of Tinubu, but the buyout was instigated by SOME (not all) minority shareholders who were tired of the long wait for Oando's fortunes to turnaround. And Oando is mandated to respond with an offer based on CAMA/SEC regulations. So they offered a conservative N7.07 according to the law i.e. a minimum price not below the average price on the NSE over 6 months prior to the court case.
That N7.07 offer is dead and buried because it will be rejected 100 percent!
Just waiting for the court-ordered AGM and the FY2022 results !

Are you aware that in the court-ordered meeting (an EGM actually), a 75% positive vote among those present is what is required to push this kind of decision through? Are you also aware that four shareholders hold 74% of the total shareholding?

That means the entire decision is dependent on what these four majority shareholders decide. That decision is whether to buy you out at N7.07 or higher. Of course they would prefer to buy you out at N7.07.

The other thing is the time of the buy-out. N7.07 today is not N7.07 in six months or 1 year. They would not only buy-out at N7.07, the payment date wouldn't be anything earlier than June 2024 (my guess).

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 3:01pm On Jun 17, 2023
What do you guys think about Glaxo smithkline?

The enterprise value is negative whihc is a rarity in the investment world.

The share price is roughly N7.5 (market cap: N9bn)

Cash in company's coffers: N22bn which comes to N18 per share.

That's far more cash than the market cap.

The company has a tradition of paying special dividends.

Looks like a good upside potential

2 Likes

Politics / Re: Tinubu And Osinbajo: The True Story Of How They Met by austinkenneth: 7:58am On Jun 12, 2023
Interesting
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 12:37pm On May 29, 2023
emmanuelewumi:



I am not a Pastor, I am not a saint oooo.

Please I can't be a role model

The title of a role model can only be conferred on you by others despite your no clear intentions to be one.

If people say you are a role model the so are you.

13 Likes 2 Shares

Politics / Re: Yoruba’s Are Political Rascals - Igbo Leader Chief Iwuanyanwu (video) by austinkenneth: 9:45pm On Mar 25, 2023
Darren95:
Yoruba’s are political rascals and we will
deal with them - Igbo leader Chief Iwuanyanwu.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFA0dETzmCI

Whoever edited this video is very very mischievous.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 11:08am On Mar 23, 2023
emmanuelewumi:
Summary of 2022 financial performance of NASCON.


Date: 18th March 2023

Mkt price: N12.20k
Mkt cap: 32.3 billion
Enterprise value 25.8 billion


Revenue: 59 billion
Equity 19 billion
Outstanding shares 2.65 billion
EPS N2.06

5 years average EPS: N1.30k

Return On Equity: 27.9%
5 years average ROE: 24.9%
Normalized EPS using average ROE: N1.79k

Book value per share: N7.17k


Total Asset 55.5 billion
Current Asset 39 billion
Current liability 30 billion
Working capital 9 billion
Cash 13 billion


5% of Revenue: approximately 3billion
Excess cash 10 billion

OCF 3.5 billion
FCF 2.6 billion




Profit margin 9.3%

Gross Profit 24.5 billion
Operating Profit 8.6 billion
PAT 5.5 billion
EBIT 9 billion
EBITDA 11.3 billion


Capital employed 25.5 billion

Invested Capital 15.5 billion
Net cash 3.5 billion


Gross profit/Total Asset 44%

Quick ratio 43%


Cash Flow Return On Investment 13.7%
Cash Return On invested capital 16.8%
Return On Capital Employed 35.3%
Return On invested capital 38.8%


EV/FCF 9.9
EV/EBIT 2.87
EV/EBITDA 2.3
EV/Sales 0.44


EBITDA/Market cap yield 35%

5 yr earning CAGR 6%
3 yr earning CAGR 42%
Year on Year earning growth 89%


PE ratio 6.

Price/average 5 yr earning ratio 9.4


Dividend yield+ 5yr CAGR/ P(E) 5yr = 1.5

Thank you very much. Please supply the EV value and the formula for its calculation.
Politics / Re: Congratulations To Hon Abiola For Winning Umuahia Central State Constituency by austinkenneth: 12:08pm On Mar 19, 2023
GOOD
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 6:16am On Aug 09, 2022
Confusion as NUPRC rejects approval of Seplat and Mobil deal hours after President Buhari approved

https://nairametrics.com/2022/08/08/confusion-as-nuprc-rejects-approval-of-seplat-and-mobil-deal/

This acquisition may not scale through. Buhari and Sylva are leaving in less than a year. NUPRC(DPR) is there forever. Under the PIA the consent has to come from them and they don't want to give it.

If this things gets to court, NUPRC will win. Make dem go beg them.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 2:02pm On Jun 02, 2022
Abeg any heads up on what is going on in NAHCO. Price has been rising. I kick myself for not buying.
Car Talk / Re: Mercedes Benz Thread by austinkenneth: 4:41pm On Apr 22, 2022
Please can anyone help me with a cost estimate for W164 rear SAM and where I can get it?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 7:11pm On Apr 04, 2022
Please is anyone having problems with getting UCAP dividends? I haven't got mine. They paid me for the previous years without hassles but this year no alert
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 2:08pm On Feb 03, 2022
samguru:
Those of you in OANDO bus be careful oooo

The backlog of results will be released and from reliable source, the results are bad.

OANDO needs SERIOUS capital injection to keep the company on her feet.
After these relaeases, It wouldn't be strange to see the price at N2.00
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 12:09pm On Feb 02, 2022
I can't see AIICO bonus on my CSCS yet.
Politics / Re: Igbos Didn't Vote For Abiola: Separating Facts From Calumny by austinkenneth: 8:33am On Jan 22, 2022
This thread is quite revealing
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 7:54am On Jan 12, 2022
Heishere:


Found out that SEC is yet to approve. I don't understand what SEC is doing this days

NPF right issue - SEC yet to approve
Cutix bonus - SEC yet to approve
AIICO bonus - SEC yet to approve

Ordinary approval is taking them forever to do. Na to invent ways to rub investors in the name of fees them sabi

What is keeping SEC from approving AIICO bonus? I hope they won't change the qualification date.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 3:43pm On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
This stock too like wahala. smiley
Was trying to behave like say e wan gbe body earlier....touched N1 and moved back to 0.97k........but some accumulations are seriously going on here.

Make the stock do quick and move so Peter can come out from Hilton top. grin
Will be watching out for Tony's moves here, when he's ready....

WEMA
Bargain hunters or is it bargain jijoists on queue here...

JBERGER
Much activities here today....

GTCo: 25.55..
ZEE: 25.45........@25.35, giving space for the boss to pass.....lol. Whosoever is doing this to GTB surely has a mission. Don't mind me o..... I no be analyst. tongue

What really is the reason for this decrease in price for GTB? Is there an issue with their results?
Is there a core investor selling off?

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