₦airaland Forum

Valthegreat:
Good news for investors but may likely turn a bad news to the Nigerian economy because Dangote may insist on selling refined products on dollars to the local market which means farewell to exchange rate stability at the long run.
it is hard to earn naira ( from the major market) and pay dividends in dollar.

No, it's not. What's hard is make sales in naira while buying inputs in dollars.


The refinery makes less than 12% net margins. Even at 50% payout ratio, the dividends forms just an insignificant 6% of revenue.

Export proceeds will be above 40% of revenue, conveniently absorbing 6% for dividends.

Another reason the listing will help the exchange rate is that the 10% offered will take out around N4trn liquidity from the system.

emmanuelewumi:
17% rental yield is abnormal in the real estate market check the annual report of SFS REIT, UPDC REIT, the maximum rental yield from their luxury apartments is 8%.

He should be careful about the genuineness of the property's valid documents.

Lagos State government might want to demolish the property in the next few weeks and the owners wants to sell in order to transfer the risk to a novice in the sector

He's not being sold the property, just a long term lease.

emmanuelewumi:
Where is the location of this property in Lagos Mainland.


This is about 16% rental yield on the property which is more than the average yield of 6% to 7% in the property market

You're using the wrong figures to calculate the yield.

The 16% is yield to the long term lessee.


Yield on the property is the N5m potential rent as a percentage of whatever it cost to put up the structure (an unknown figure in this scenario)

But you can bet the land and building cost for the 2 flats will exceed N50m making the yield the expected single digit.

KarlTom:
Yeah. Comes to about ₦400 per share

If Euro stays at 1680 when they close
Also the €100m is only a price ceiling.

unite4real:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Beta_Glass_Plc_Notice_of_Potential_Change_in_Ownership.pdf

They're paying market price with no premium.

emmanuelewumi:
Do you know why lottery winners go broke?

It is because they don't have the capacity for the money that came their way, so the money will be wasted till it gets to their capacity.


Eg you have a 5 liters container and you are trying to pour a content of 20 liters into it. You will end up wasting 15 liters of the content.

Better to pour 5 liters, after using the content eg water or petrol, you pour another 5 liters and continue again and again.


A company that has not made a revenue of N500 million per annum in the last 10 years is now looking for N250 billion from investors. They did not ask for N10 billion, no be juju be dat?

How much liquid cash is in the system at the moment? (Free from CBN's claws)

If we say N10trn, it means only 40 entities can attract N250bn at the moment.


How much funds are people rather keeping to buy up the largest refinery in the world that could open up for sale in less than 12 months?


But those who believe in a company certainly have their valid perspectives too.

Our own is to balance the views.

I must own Dangote Refinery even if it overpriced, I will show my own little solidarity to Alhaji. He has done much more for this country than those piling up private jets and empty Asokoro mansions.

Worse are those siphoning money to swiss accounts.

So far none of them has Airtel.

And Airtel is already a 6k stock.

emmanuelewumi:
Chapel Hill Denham, top 10 stocks in their portfolio

Seeing SEPLAT reminds me that some of the returns they quote sef are not real.

Like they'll be valuing SEPLAT like that at 5800 when they can't really exit above 5200 in today's market.


There should be another form of marked to market that doesn't just use unrealistic reference prices.

Another nice screenshot.

emmanuelewumi:
This is for GT Fund Managers, over 40% of their fund invested in Agricultural stocks

What did you do differently though?

Your screenshots today have been crisp and legible.

Please keep the settings.

I can send even read what should be fine prints off the images.

Modified:
The GTB own is what's super crisp.

The UCAP is just slightly better.

emmanuelewumi:
They held on to BUA cement for a long time, when they should be buying Lafarge at less than N30.


What I look for in fact sheets of the various Mutual Fund Managers is the stocks in their portfolio.

Ohh..
Na other people's money na.

They can't kee their self.

Even if they make losses they'll still get fat cheques.


Maybe when I grow up I will have a fund that guarantees 40% p.a for subscribers.

Not guarantee really just absolute returns, cos If the assets do better, they still won't get above 40%, and when wicked bears show too, they'll still get 40%.

emmanuelewumi:
Below is the top 10 stocks in the portfolio of United Capital Asset Management.

The institutional investors took their rights and asked for additional shares

The trend in their performance history you shared shows they will underperform the index next year and outperform in 2027.

Why is their performance a perfect zig zag like that? 😁😁😁

Locotrader:
Looks like we will still have a strong bull by January

Certainly.

UNIBENDON:
Nothing is impossible. 15 percent every quarter is still possible even with N100 billion naira.

Yes sir.

At that point, one will be trading Nairobi, Jo'burg, Cassablanca, and maybe Accra. Otherwise, your funds will start having diminishing returns.

By the way, NCR's journey back to full offer seems to be shaping up, those with paper profit should probably realize some at N72

emmanuelewumi:
They can also trade it to become Trillionaires.

By the way I don't think we have 500,000 billionaires in Nigeria.

My opinion though

No they can't

If they don't have the skills, they can trade it to end up becoming millionaieres. Like When Agba decides to start trading on a brokerage fee of 1.35%, it will take him less than 5 years to lose his enire N2bn portfolio, and after than he will no longer be in a postition to help himself or any broker sustainably. Lets hope he calms down to learn basic trading principles before jumping into it.

UNIBENDON:
I only made calculation for 22 years I made room for losses in some quarters.

ohh.. makes sense.

crownprince2017:
The question remains how sustainable is it?

For most people it's not.

I have a strategy that i know works for up to N100m -delivering over 30% quarterly.
What the sustainable returns would be when i trade with N1bn or N10bn or N100bn, I do not yet know, but I;m confident it'll still exceed 10% a quarter.

UNIBENDON:
If someone like @Locotrader were to have started trading in 2002. And he makes 15% every quarter,that N500,000 would have amounted to more than N38 billion . I think trading is better than dividend investing.

when you're trading with 500k, you can easily even make 100% in a good quarter, but it reaches a point where 15% in a quarter isn't guaranteed.

so maybe let's use a more conservative 10% a quarter (3.33% a month)

My maths shows N3.4bn about 12 times more than Pa Emma's option.

But let everyone just stick to what they understand.

By the way I got N191bn when i used 15% for 23 years (92 quarters) Abi my calculator is high?

Cash is our fuel

Low fees is our fuel injector.

#Trading 101
cc Agba.

emmanuelewumi:
Get the cumulative earning per share from 2025 to 2029 growing at 35% per annum and see if it is up to N1420, that should give you an idea if it is cheap or not.

The beauty of our market.
You thinking it's cheap, someone else thinking it's not = liquidity (The traders lubricant)

UNIBENDON:
I think he is not aware that the fastest way to get rich in stock market is trading but buying and selling often is harder than buying and only getting dividends.

My stance is that there are many ways to make money in this market, I never speak against people's strategies cos it works for them, where i have issues is when participants who only know about having to do long boring waits to buy or sell try to comment on trading strategies that they still need 10 years to learn.

zendi:
Taxman take note.

I do even better than the above.
And I am patriotic, so hammer us properly.

Good thing is nGX is one of the few places you can make that much and not be tax liable

oluseg2:
You have too much of Know-all mentality and that's not very good.
The achievement of the OP is something worth commending but here you are trying to play it down.

I think you have a comprehension problem.

Or maybe you didn't read all the posts on the conversation.

If you understand my posts(which are quite easy to understand), you would realize I never downplay anyone's achievement. My opinion is that everyone should stick to what they understand.


But the guy clearly thinks because he made 2000% off 1% of his portfolio after waiting for 5 years, then he's the only one that has a working strategy.

I just had to give him the correct perspective so he can calm down. That's not downplaying his achievement.

If you didn't have a silly bias, you would obviously see that he's the one who thinks trading doesn't work, simply because he's completely clueless on successful trading strategies.

Agbalowomeri:
Why are you looking for cheap brokers fee then?

Go on YouTube to start learning the basics on trading, you should understand in 6 hours or less.

Streetinvestor2:
This is class example of OPM.
The brokers will everly be happy for doing absolutely nothing to earn free money..lol

I'm happy to give it to them.
I'm happy I get the privilege to contribute that much to people's livelihood.

If you are of the school of thought that it's a bad thing that brokers make money off your account, you should probably change.

Why should anyone not be happy that people are benefitting from him?

Why some of you feel bad about that is baffling!

I'm happy both my brokers get at least N1m per month.

I'm working on making it N10m per month very soon. Imagine what that translates to for their businesses for the jobs they provide.

And also perhaps with that It'll even be that I can help them keep the fees they charge low while sustaining their businesses. That would be something that benefits thousands of their customers that get to enjoy such low fees.


That's my mindset.

This mindset of brokers must never make money from me needs a reset. You guys should unlearn it.

If you don't want brokers making money off you, get your own trading license, and build your own robust trading platform.

Also @Mankind2024.

While you're having your boring wait for 5 years that may or may not payoff, I would have contributed over N100m in brokerage fees to two brokers.

I think of that as being responsible for the salaries of 2 employees on about N6m -N10m per annum.

My strategy provides significant earnings for my brokers and thus some of their employees, that gives me joy.

Yours while boring lacks such impact.

So stick to the little you understand.

Maybe if you commit another 10-30 years to learning, you might find better strategies.

Mankind2024:
I have come to believe that nothing wounds a disciplined investor more than being called “lucky.”
The word is flung like a careless stone, meant to diminish a decade of deliberate choices into a roll of cosmic dice. But luck, as most people speak of it, is an illusion—an optical trick created by short-sightedness. What looks like fortune from the outside is almost always the quiet harvest of patience on the inside.

Let me say this plainly: sharing one’s unsolicited investment journey is not an invitation to be crowned by chance. It is simply the prerogative—indeed, the fundamental right—of anyone who has chosen to walk the narrow path of equity without the crutches of debt leverage. We allocate our scarce resources according to our convictions, our temperament, and our tolerance for the long night. That is not luck. That is sovereignty.

One of the quiet missions behind my writings on the Nigerian Capital Market has been to rekindle reverence for a forgotten virtue: time in the market, not timing the market. History is merciless on this point. The frenetic trader—our own local version of Awesome, forever jumping in and out with the agility of a grasshopper—usually ends poorer than the tortoise who simply stayed invested. The market rewards presence far more generously than it rewards cleverness.

The smart do not always win this race. The swift, the brilliant, the hyperactive—none are guaranteed the prize. Discipline and patience, those two unglamorous sisters, are the ones who cross the tape with heavy garlands.

To the critics who rushed to label a personal story “luck,” permit me to address you directly and gently. I, too, believe in grace. I have seen it descend without announcement and lift ordinary efforts into extraordinary outcomes. But grace is not the same as luck. Grace partners with preparation; luck is what people invent when they refuse to acknowledge the preparation.

Your pronouncement of “luck” is therefore futile and, if I may say, baseless. Hyperactivity in the market—buying today, selling tomorrow, scrolling charts at 2 a.m.—rarely translates into durable wealth. The Preacher in Ecclesiastes saw it clearly three millennia ago:

“I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.” (Ecclesiastes 9:11 KJV)

Notice the twist: time and chance happen to all, but only those who respect time get to keep the chance when it finally smiles.

I was never the brilliant investor that Pa Emmanuel was. I never had the privileged whisper that Mercy seemed to enjoy. My edge was laughably simple: I read until I understood a company that interested me, made a decision, and then did the hardest thing known to homo sapiens in a bull market—I sat still. Charlie Munger once reduced a lifetime of wisdom into a single sentence: “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” I took that sentence as gospel. Never interrupt a compounding stock. That has been my guiding star, both in the wild Nigerian market and in the more temperate foreign indices where my portfolio has grown, modestly but relentlessly.

You do not wake up a stock multimillionaire because a leprechaun tapped your brokerage account. You arrive there after a thousand small decisions to do nothing when every fibre of your being screamed “do something!” Wealth in equities is the reward of patience, steadfastness, perseverance, and the quiet discipline to treat volatility as tuition—expensive, boring, but ultimately refundable in compound interest.

The Nigerian market of recent years has been an unforgiving classroom. I still remember the season when impatience was my invisible tax collector; I transferred wealth to more patient hands with every rash click of the sell button. Those days are gone. Today I am unmoved by the daily earthquake of prices. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax hikes, sudden foreign-exodus selloffs, breathless headlines announcing yet another “crash”—they wash over me like rain on a tin roof. I do nothing. I ignore the noise. That learned inaction is not luck; it is strategy distilled from bitter experience and from the calm voice of Charlie Munger echoing across decades.

So the next time you see a portfolio that has grown quietly while the crowd panicked and partied in turns, resist the temptation to call it luck. What you are witnessing is the outward evidence of an inward grace: the grace to wait, the grace to sit still, the grace to let time—the most powerful force in the financial universe—do its invisible work.

Luck is the story people tell when they don’t want to admit that someone simply refused to blink.
I blinked once. I learned. And I have spent the years since keeping my eyes wide open—and my hands gloriously still.
That, dear reader, is not luck.
That is the long, beautiful obedience in the same direction.

Whom are you really directing this very long post to?
You've found a strategy that works for you, all you have to do is stick with it.

On my part, note that I didn't say you were lucky, I only said "Given he limited context you shared, maybe yours was more luck than NCR being a sound company" Then I asked you to give more context which you did, so that should do.

When you sit in your small mindset thinking your boring strategy is the only one that works, commenting on trading strategies you're completely clueless about then you're not being very smart, smartness implies you realize that you don't appraise what you're a novice at.

The N3.5m you waited 5 years to make, only takes me abot 1 month to make. CONSISTENTLY!

You waited 5 years to make 2000% on a holding that you were only comfortable putting less than 1% of your portfolio on, meaning what you're celebrating only added 20% to your portfolio in 5 years.

If I assume I had N1m in January, Then my portfolio is already up 3000% in one year. My overall portfolio!

if i say it's 100k, then it's 30,000% in year, compare that to your mediocre 20% and rest

I actually had -N5m at thestart of this year. Much less than 100k. I wasn't broke, I just was cash strapped.

emmanuelewumi:
From Meristem

Thank God for Atlass and Morgan, this sort of downtime would have cost me more than double the national minmum wage.

talking about minimu m wage though it's interesting to find that even though igerian Naira and South Korean Won are worth exactly thesame, minimum wage in Sout Korean is over 2million per month compared to 70k in Nigeria.

Mankind2024:
My brother, the NSEMPA no1 impatient and arrogant trader, thank you for the free publicity and for giving me the opportunity to clear the air once and for all.

1. “Negative shareholders’ funds and a failing business model”
- In Feb 2021, NCR had negative equity of about –N1.2bn. That’s public information.
- What is also public information is that the company had over N8bn in installed base contracts (maintenance of ATMs, POS, and self-service kiosks across banks and oil companies), contracts that renew every 3–5 years almost automatically.
- I saw a situation where the market was pricing a 130-year-old technology franchise with monopoly-like service contracts as if it was heading for liquidation… for N180m market cap. That’s not a “failing business model.” That’s the bargain of the decade.

2. “Why only N170k? That doesn’t show confidence.”
- In 2021 I was a salary earner, struggling with life and family responsibilities. N170k was part of my liquid net worth at the time — exactly the position size I allocate to my highest-conviction ideas when they are this depressed.
- Confidence is not measured by how much you bet when something is already obvious to everyone. Real conviction is measured by how much you are willing to allocate when literally nobody else sees it.
- Today that N170k is worth N3.635 million. I sleep very well with that “small” conviction.

3. “You only got 20x in 4–5 years while people who bought at the 52-week low got 18x in one year — so it’s luck.”
- People who bought at the 52-week low in early 2025 paid between N4 and N6. They are enjoying the ride now, and I’m genuinely happy for them.
- But let’s be honest: in early 2025, the turnaround was already visible to anyone who cared to read the 2024 results and the H1 2025 numbers. The stock had started moving. It was no longer invisible.
- I bought when the company was still bleeding, when the chart was flat for four years, when the average daily volume was sometimes 200 shares, when people on this same forum were calling it “dead money, Iliquid stock.”
- That’s not luck. That’s buying when fear was maximum and facts were minimum.

4. “Paint the full picture so people can learn.”
- The full picture is simple: I looked for a company with:
(a) a moat (service contracts that competitors can’t easily take),
(b) a tiny market cap relative to its installed base,
(c) a share count that made a future re-rating mathematically explosive (108 million units), and
(d) zero chance of permanent capital loss because the business would still be needed even if it crawled along for another decade.
- I didn’t need 2025 results to see that. Everything I needed was already there in 2021 for anyone willing to read beyond the headline loss.

Finally, I have never claimed to be a genius like you. I just refused to complicate what is painfully simple: buy great (or decent) businesses when nobody wants them, do nothing, and let time work.

If waiting 4–5 years for 20x (so far) while collecting zero dividends and watching red headlines every quarter is “luck,” then I pray every member of this forum continues to enjoy such terrible luck.

To everyone else reading: the next NCR is already on the NGX today — trading at N5–N15, negative equity, zero volume, and plenty of people calling it trash.
You don’t need luck. You only need the stomach to be early and the patience to be quiet.

God bless you all.
And thank you again, the arrogant trader, for bumping my post to the top. Much appreciated. 🙏🏾

your clrifications should give anyone interested the needed context, thanks for providing them? why did you feel the need to add your opininionated titles though? they're merely your opinion of my person and do not count for much.

Locotrader:
Nice one
Today,keep your eyes on the index especially the ASI
Market needs to gain 0.75% today to arrive at 146,000

current ASI is just 676.13 points off 146k.

we only need 0.46%

Agbalowomeri:
You get time o
A stock price obviously being manipulated
What about JULI

People seem to already be buying the Charlie Munger's principle narrative, I felt we needed to provide a balanced perspective.

Even if 170k was all you had in 2021, why haven't you been adding more over the past 5 years?

It doesn't seem like you really believed in the company as much as you're trying to paint.

It looks more like you were stuck for 5 years and finally got lucky.

That's just my opinion though.


Now when nosa2 was saying people shouldn't quote figures, hoe could we have corrected this narrative if we simply thought he made 2000%


Seeing that he only put in 170k helps see that it isn't likely that he believed much in the business as much as he tries to convey.