₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
It has to be secured na, unsecured loans can be as high as 36% per annum and above.

Why are you looking for unsecured loans, with quality stocks you can get margin loans that you can rollover for as long as possible

You won't be able to trade on said stocks na.

Or you might need to move them to brokers where the extra fees (above my current 0.5%) will be higher than the loan cost.


Do you know guys that can do unsecured at 36%?

Cos I'll be happy with even 48% for unsecured.

emmanuelewumi:
My Presco right is over N20 million, I have money for part of the right and had to get a loan of N8 million for the balance.

You own about 0.01% of the business.

That's cool! I hope it reaches 0.1% soon.

Is this 27% facility secured? With your shares domiciled at FSDH?

I have an offer that was 107% annualized, i rejected it, they've reviewed to 92%, I've rejected again. But at around 80% I'll take it. Unsecured though.

What's the best you think I might be able to get unsecured?

SSpeter:
we need to keep interest rates high because our currency is not yet stable. If you reduce interest rates you will encourage people like me to short the Naira. For example at reduced interest, I can borrow naira from the bank and pay low interest rates and then use the funds to buy USD. If the interest rate is low, I can take losses for a long time and wait for the Naira to devalue. Hence a high interest rate is a deterrence for such practice.

If you were confident your shorting would succeed at 9% yield, you'll actually already have such positions even at the current 19%, since you said you would take losses. Those potential losses would be more than the 10% differential. We've come from 29% yields to the 19% shaving off 1000bps, yet those who speculated based on your theory are only having to take #200 loss on every dollar they bought (rates having crashed from 1650 to 1450 in that time frame)

Your perspective is valid though, but yet speculative.

If oil production stays above 1.5m barrels, and Dangote refinery keeps ramping up production and the policy on Net open position for banks is sustained, your shorts will likely fail.

These 3 factors are some of the most significant contributors to our improved Fx situation vs previous years when we had oil production struggling at the 1m barrels dollar level, we had 30- 40% of the meagre fx inflows go into fuel imports, and worse banks hoarded billions of dollars and would declare humongous revaluation gains. Today GTB daily advertises that I buy up to $6,000 every single quarter, compared to $60 they struggled to permit before. This is the first time I know any bank to be allowing up to $6000 (that's even enough for school fees for some students) compared to endless waiting for form A. $24,000 per year!

This is the maths I look at for low yields.
Say the investable portion of your money supply in investable is at N100trn,
You keep yields at 20%, next year your money supply hits N120trn

At 10% though, it's only is N110trn.

The fx rate gets better off if there's only N110trn chasing available dollars vs when it's N120trn!

Odunharry:
True this when I saw assymetric corridor changed from +250/-250 bps to what we saw this Afternoon.

We might see discount around 14-15% for the longest tenure. Stop rate for last auction for 364days is at 16.06%. I'm guessing we are approaching the era of single digit rates come next year

That would be a great feat. Although compared to sometimes last year, they've already crashed yields by close to 900bps which is good. Let them do another 500.

NSEstudent:
Why do you want the rate to fall rapidly though? Is it so that it will positively impact the capital market?

I think a sharp fall in rates will adversely affect the economy. Let them take it small small - slowly but surely.

300bps isn't rapid given that there's been a 420bps drop in inflation in the intervening period.

My want for lower yields is to limit money supply thereby increasing the currency's worth.

High yields are dilutive.

When your yields are below 5%, your currency will be worth more than those who keep yields above 30%.

And yes, low yields impacts the market cos businesses can finance at a fraction of the current costs, the savings flowing almost entirely to the bottom line.

It impacts government expenses too etc.

Agbalowomeri:
They are just coming from a severe devaluation regime. Naira stability first, others will follow

Low yields enhances the stability.

High yields and dilutive to money supply.

$50bn in reserves is realistic and sufficient in the near term.

Agbalowomeri:
Not happening before elections

We'll keep trading what we see.
How's high interest rate in the govt interest though, when they could be saving trillions off debt service, working towards a balanced budget and then looking good for the next ballot??

I don't understand politics much, but the maths says they should be pro low yields.

chimex38:
True sha. it will be PIT across board. But FPI that are CGT exclusive will feel it differently.

@bolded exactly what I heard from horses mouth.

Seems Afriinvest is interpreting differently or "suitably" for their clients

Yes sir.

chimex38:
Thanks for sharing your summary.


If I interprete correctly, so we will now have to submit tax returns every 6months? twice per year?
This market will lay low for a while.

If the bi-annual filing talk is true, it won't be unique to CGT, It would be PIT in general. So even people who don't play on the NGX would have to file as frequently.

But what I heard is actually March 31st of the next year and it's only once a year filing.

Odunharry:
Suspected it may be retained even though inflation has eased for the seventh consecutive month. I actually expected slight cut to around 25-26.

200bps cut on MPR while maintaining the previous corridor is actually the exact same thing with today's outcome. But cutting the MPR outright does better signalling which is why it would have been preferred.

There are a few more NTB PMA to watch this year. If they take 364-day discounts below 14% that too would be impressive as we enter Q1.

Agbalowomeri:
How do you believe that the committee will just go aggressive rate cut on something that they feel is working

Let them keep one stance na.

If they moved up aggressively while inflation was uptrend. Why not maintain that same stance?


At peak inflation MPR was 700bps below inflation rate, if they went with that, MPR should be at 9% today.


But it's a good thing they adjusted the corridor effectively delivering a 200bps cut!

SDF and SLF rates are the real rates and each went down by 200bps. I'll take that.

Ultimate goal is for fixed income yields to drop back to single digits!

SDF @22.5%
SLF @27.5%

MPR @ 27% is very disappointing.

deathwing:
Abeg i received Presco N10 dividend into a company account I opened years ago (2018) and forgot about and have definitely never inputted on any platform. I only began buying Presco shares recently and have not even been able to use FirstRegistrars mandate form because it keeps giving me error(hence my going the NIBBS route). I don't even know the account number because it is **** in my email alert. How is this possible? I am so angry. Where did they get the account number from?

I think there's some level of automation that's happened with dividends remittances.

I've never filled any dividend mandate form, yet I get every single dividend I qualify for without fail, even when I qualify via different CSCS accounts, they pay everything.


In my case, the account credited is the account linked to my trading accounts at my brokers.

If that's not the case for you, I do not have an explanation.

gabscity:
The N20 or N10/unit?

N20

PRESCO Div 27 just dropped.

unite4real:
PRESCO DIV
I only received one tranche they tagged as Batch 2. The other one has not arrived.

It's DIV 27 and 28.

They both had batch 2.

So what you find out is if it's DiV 27 or 28 you got

Agbalowomeri:
It's a public forum
Just the way you called a strategy "super-boring", others can give their take on anything SHARED on a public forum. Nobody is right or wrong. If you understand that then you shouldn't take it to heart.

The goal is to make the money
And the losses as well....
I am here to collect from anyone and everyone, in line with my moniker

I said the strategy is boring to me

It's not same as saying it won't work under any circumstance.

That's where you're wrong.

Agbalowomeri:
Bros no take am too serious
As long as you are making the money, we are all happy

Exactly.
Your own strategy is super boring to me, but sometimes it delivers 200, 300, 500% for you.
so I don't tell you it's not a good one cos I know it works for you, why try to tell me what you think I should or shouldn't try when you do not actually understand my strategy. why not comment on just what you know?

Agbalowomeri:
Ahh make he no experience am o
Anyway targeting 2% in stock market no make sense. It is working in a bull market but make he no carry that bad character enter bear market sha otherwise na eternal averaging down

You know I don't really think it makes much sense to comment on something you're clueless about.

This is not a strategy that requires luck, or boring wait or monkey hunting to work.
If you're privileged to have this strategy mastered, all it requires is that the market opens. As long as the market opens, profits are guaranteed bull or bear, maybe one day, you may leearn enough to understand it, but for now, you should probably bask on in your fears and limited knowledge of successful trading strategies

Market is down over 7% MTD, making it one of the worst months of the year if not the worst, you're still waiting for a non existent failure.

yMcy56:
It's low volumes we are witnessing so far.....
Cautious trading (buying/sell off)....and big Caps aren't shedding....
Market might just be waiting for the next line of action from the Finance Ministry or the tax people ..

The last rate decision for the year is in about 145 hours. If they do a significant cut (300bps+), and start depressing fixed income yields by up to 500% by year end, then 8% dividend yield will start looking attractive again. Funds will flow in from fixed income market, we'll have more buys, and those of us in the market will have plenty money to celebrate christmas, and also sort bills and more in January.

But Cardoso is being too cautious. 500bps in yield cuts will even shrink debt service costs by up to N4trn, and the govt can target eliminating their deficit or reducing it to under 2% of GDP. But I'm not even sure they care that much.

Meanwhile Tribune Online is quoting Mr Oyedele as saying that Stamp duty will be scrapped by January.

That will save me N3-5k per month on electronic transfers to all my bank accounts.


More exciting, it will save me N240,000 in trading charges per month. Perhaps close to N5m per year since I will grow my trading volumes above N500m per month some times next year.


Extra N240,000 per month just cos they're scrapping stamp duty is like getting a salary increase beginning January.
Awesome.

Let my brokers sha update their software to reflect this ASAP!

emmaodet:
The worst place to discuss stock market or analyzing equities is on a WhatsApp group.
You go against any of their perceived gurus and you get threatened of been yanked out of the group.
I joined an investment group of ex-course mates of recent and there, their gurus are telling them to be buying MTN that it will soon touch 7,000 per shares from the current 400....Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!...egbami
I tried sharing a different view or opinion on why even though MTN is going to rise on the medium to long term, i don't see it getting to 7,000 at least, not very soon.
I have been threatened and told to shut up and keep my opinion to myself ever since.
Infact, they don't want to hear anything from me again... pim make i no talk

soon is relative.

Maybe just tell them to define "soon" in absolute.

70 years might be soon enough for some people, it wouldn't be unthinkable that MTNN reaches 7000 in that time frame.

ogawisdom:
You are right

I felt sad last year when Nigerians were struggling to afford ordinary things like garri, fufu, potatoes, akara, beans, yam, rice, palm oil etc but today they can afford food easily. Potato or garri or fufu of 1k today can give a meal to a family of 6.

Thank God!

Even beans became a luxury that last year.

ogawisdom:
Yes food prices have crashed by over 70% in some cases and still coming down. Food is nothing now everyone can afford the basic ones

Food is my major concern.

I hate seeing people go hungry. It almost feels like me not being able to breathe. Like air, food, water are essential and no human should lack them.

So it's a good thing that people can afford to feed significantly better than they could last year.

ogawisdom:
Cost of cars have not reduced at all and most imported items.

Yes food prices have crashed by over 70% in some cases and still coming down.

Ahh..
Maybe it's your dealer o.

Car of $15k last year was N25.5m at 1700 to the dollar, when you add shipping and clearing it's around 32m


Today, same car will land for N27m.

But since sales were dull last year due to high prices, it's likely your dealer is still trying to sell you his old stock.

ogawisdom:
Inflation getting better, cost of things need to nosedive too

Apart from data and labour, almost everything else I pay for is cheaper yoy.

Food is 50% cheaper in some cases.

MPC needs to cut by 300bps or more next week.

500bps wouldn't be bad sef.

It's out!

16.05

October Inflation

essentialone:
By then my money would have grown more than what it was before I entered the Stock Market, True or False?

True!
You the man!

emmanuelewumi:
I don't think there is any big deal when people flaunt figures in an investment forum.

It motivates some of us to do better.

I don't understand o.
On top N1.6m??

What if someone who has N10bn here now shows their portfolio??

Is it that you seeing it then reduces your own portfolio??

Maybe when maturity sets in, reactions begin to differ.

nosa2:
Anyway what do I know, for all I know I could be speaking to a 21 year old person smoking weed in his university hostel

That would be a tenant in my rental property, except that I explicitly state on the rent receipt that smoking and Internet fraud aren't allowed, and if anyone is caught in the act, they would be evicted and their rent reimbursed. I had to emphasize the Internet fraud part cos the facility is premium and commands between 67 - 100% rent premium.

You can accept this reality or you could choose to imagine that I'm still preparing for Jamb, whatever helps you sleep.