₦airaland Forum

HesInMe:
Great insight! I read somewhere that investors underestimate just how much state and local governments, flush with cash following devaluation and subsidy removal, are investing in new infrastructure requiring cement. This industry has tremendous tailwinds ahead.

But it's still not fair on the masses na.

Something that they agreed to keep at 7k per bag last year.

How do you run operations at 19% EBIDTA in one market and then hike prices to extort 59% EBIDTA in your home country? And we keep saying rent is high.

chimex38:
He said 2030!!
Abi you no read him timeframe?

What year are you currently in?

Most of us are already in 2025.

Who else noticed the bulk of DANGCEM's revenue growth came from a price increase in the Nigerian market.

Pan African prices were basically flat yoy at about 130k per ton, whereas Nigerian price went from about 116k to 165k per ton you, despite the fact that the currency is nearly 10% stronger yoy.


It looks like cement demand in Nigeria has price inelasticity.

Look at the EBIDTA margins sef?

emmanuelewumi:
Stock prices are adjusted down ward after stock split or issuance of bonus shares

Valuation will be the same

The only thing is that the outstanding shares will increase, will be affordable, liquid and probably have capital appreciation.


Presco is currently selling for roughly N1500 and has 1 billion shares, if they have a bonus share of 1 for 1 the stock price will reduce to N750 and outstanding shares will be 2 billion

More people will be able to afford the stock, it will require lesser money to buy 100k units needed to move the stock price.

If management is sure of the future of the stock, it is possible for it to get back to N1500 again based on earning growth after the 1 for 1 bonus

Yes.

I actually modified my post.
Apologies sir.

emmanuelewumi:
Stock split if the par value changes, some private companies have a par value of N5, N10 or whatever.

While most companies on NGX have a par value of 50k.

If a private company with a par value of N5 is coming to NGX at a par value of 50k, they will do a stock split whare by someone with 1 million units shares will have 10 million of the companies shares when it is listed on NGX in

Yes. but in this context, split is what's more likely, cos doing 20 for 1 as bonus would balloon the company's valuation by 20x.

Modified: You're right. since bonuses would imply a markdown, then my point about ballooning valuation is wrong.
sorry for stressing you unnecessarily.

emmanuelewumi:
The reason why private companies issues generous bonus shares prior to listing is to encourage affordability and liquidity.

Some of the private company have less less than 200 million shares at about N20,000 per share.

To ensure affordability they can do a 20 to 1 bonus shares , thereby increasing the number of shares to 4.2 billion.

They can then list the shares on NGX at N950

You mean split. Like 20 for 1. it isn't same as bonus??

emmanuelewumi:
If ACA held on to their shares and did not sell at all.

Aradel should have been about N1500 and above with the recent news

It was the sale by ACA that depressed the stock price to N500 and below.

Aradel start moving when ACA was done with selling.

To those seeing 1500,
this isn't a financial advise, appraise ARADEL on your own and decide your trades on it. One can make a bet towards the announcement of ministerial consent if you feel that isn't yet priced in.

emmanuelewumi:
They have made enough money.


They bought on NASD in 2017 or thereabout at around N500, which was a premium because it was less than N300 on NASD.

The also got a bonus of 20 to 1 prior to listing on NGX.

Yes sir. But it was me, N60bn in additional gains would have pained me sha.
But again, it's almost impossible that they wouldn't have seen this deal in the works, so it was their choice to exit at that time.

emmanuelewumi:
It would not have moved. The stock price was down because ACA was selling

My thinking is: This north western news would have allowed them get at least another N100 per share.

If only those ACA guys waited a few more weeks

Outlook for the week:

-> Market cap surpassing N100trn (25% of GDP)
-> NGN breaking below 1400
-> Reserves moving towards $44bn
-> October closing the gap on July to become a close runner up of best performing month for the market. (Folks who deal in penny stocks haven't felt the impact as much)

Alhaji is currently bullish on naira, he's no longer seeing LSE listing as a priority.

He'll take all the naira Nigerians can give him for up to 35% of the refinery.

my new estimate for the listing is now $40bn (revised up from my previous $25 -$30bn)

Market cap now at N99trn.

Someone should please push BUAFOODS, let's seal this N100trn this week.

pluto09:
As long as he is out of the market he will always be bearish.
He will only be bullish after he enters the market again

😁😁😁

Agbalowomeri:
Octobers are hardly ever bearish. The next bear is November but the stubborn bull fit crush am through December/January

I'm hearing a tilt 😁

Agbalowomeri:
Una dey make money for here o

I'm trying to see if you will be less bearish in this market. 😁😁

Mpeace:
Aradel also looking up but not enough offers to meet the 100k price movement mark

Yes.
Next stop now is market cap at N100trn 🥳

DANGCEM up in early trades.

150k now shattered 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

@Agbalowomeri 🥳🥳🥳

Streetinvestor2:
Why umuahia .Hmmmmm

Sorry.
He could have been from Iseyin as well. The point wasn't about his location, it was about his relative lack of experience and sophistication as far as trading in this market is concerned.

Agbalowomeri:
If Brent enter 50, na to run back to dollar be that

I'd rather have oil at $50 and production cost cut to under $15.

The figures they report for costs is just extremely annoying.

Agbalowomeri:
Most professors are poor

Exactly 😁😁😁

150k target now in close sight.

Sub 1450 for NGN is what keeps proving stubborn.

It's just been ranging 1455 - 1475 for weeks now.

ositadima1:
Lol. What’s your understanding? I’m curious, do you even know how the ASI is calculated?

When you trade 1% of deals in the market, you'll be welcome to the conversation. For now keep on accumulating theories with little to no profits.

Some bet9ja watcher in Umuahia asking Jurghen Klopp if he knows about how PL points work.

pluto09:
The ASI upward movement in the month of October is a pointer to the fact that investors as against speculators are still betting on the NSE

It's the sole indicator of market performance. But in this market, there are the players and there are speculators that try to analyze what they don't understand.

pluto09:
Index moved from 142 to almost 150 and you said investors are growing weary.

I don't understand o 😁😁

October that is shaping up to be the second best month of the year after July.

pluto09:
Na MTN I want

Doesn't look set

or OKOMUOIL

BUACEMENT @ 170, index at 149.7k!

Someone should move BAUFOODS or SEPLAT so we can seal this 150k today.

Looks like CSCS's upgrade is paying off, the lag is trades stream seem like it's now gone.


The CEO mentioned that they're already prepared for when some of us start deploying bots to trade.

nosa2:
How do I access it?

Maybe speak with your brokers, but like I said, it's not a very active market.

But it does exist.

nosa2:
Who knows how I can short Oando stock?

There's securities lending on NGX, but that market is very shallow.

You borrow 10 million units, and return it in 6 months when it might be trading at #20.

Pocket N200m in the process.

KarlTom:
PRESCO beats OKOMU in total DV but I can understand your perspective of frequent DV payments

How about in DY?