₦airaland Forum

Be like this London listing sef no wan favor GTCO, cos why can't it stay above $0.07?? Since their own market doesn't have any new taxes.

GTCO doing $0.07 in London(which still implies a lower PE than the banking average there) would translate to about #100, the stock for find strong support above #80.

Excellent7:
It is red everywhere!

Funny thing is that the government does not intend to participate in sharing from the realized losses but wants a piece of realized gains.

That one for good o.
Same way they're talking about reimbursing food producers for VAT incurred, if they were willing to reimburse us for realized losses, e for good.

Now we take 100% of the risk, they want 25% of the reward.

Streetinvestor2:
Change of plan I will enter market with new fund on Friday if the red reach Friday. The opportunity is so tempting. I just went through price for today.The Money go be strictly for Xmas bills so na confirmed jijo because I will be pulling it from my business money target go be for 30% .What I see on Friday go decide
I think I will go with oga nosa2 but will wait till Friday for final conclusion

Good for you.

Like this even 500k is big cash for my portfolio.

My cash position is less than 5% from a typical 50%.

No where else to get cash like this.
Maybe I should take Renmoney loan at 12% per month 😁😁😁

emmanuelewumi:
Na today, once the stocks are paying dividends and increasing dividends even though the market is bearish


This happens 16 years ago, the market went down continuously on a weekly basis for over 3 months

Abeg dey click that Think harder button o cos AI can hallucinate rubbish.

Even my portfolio felt the red 😁
Down 1.9% on the session.

Half of that is realized losses I took on ToTAL and DANGCEM.

Still up 3% MTD.

mikeapollo:
So many issues are discussed on NL, in different sections and on various topics.
Policy makers and people in govt source public opinion from various platforms, especially in this era of social media. It is not only by petition.
Whether they are aware of what people say here or not, it is only for them to say, and not for any one of us on NL.
No one should be more Catholic than the Pope

You're right sir.

Itzlinda:
I think petition won't really change nothing. When the billionaires (dangote and co) fortune index dropped by significant margin because of the drop in the price of their holdings, I think that's why federal govt will act. Or when companies starts firing people because there's no liquidity in the companies.

Whatever the trigger is, as long as they pay attention and do something 😁😁😁

Streetinvestor2:
You see someone like that tax guy will not listen because he feels he knows all with the level if hype. Na to the minster of finance u go write because it is his sector he one rubbish

As long as we achieve the desired goal, even if na to presidency. Having a targeted action is what might work.

Buy I still feel NGX and the likes could have done much better to raise investors' concern while the laws were being drafted.

mikeapollo:
Citizens opinions form a good basis for public policy in most societies an nations.
Not everybody that speaks out needs to write a petition.
And I hope people speaking against the CGT does not do any harm to your interests?

I'm talking about the impact of the talks when the people who can do anything about aren't even aware you're making them. If you write a petition or find a forum where they can read about your concerns, that'd have an effect.


Do you realize for months now, you hardly go a day without mentioning CGT here, what impact do you think that's having on the policy?

mikeapollo:
It is not the ''market'' per se.
This is classic case of a poorly-thought policy intervention by the govt (i.e. CGT) killing market enthusiasm and confidence.

Can a petition be co-written remotely? would it work in this case? if so maybe you can volunteer to draft one against the committee on why the CGT is ill thought or ill timed, then some of us here can sign it.

I believe coming up with an action plan is better than just speaking about it.

Anyways, some of us are still sailing along the market waves. All I need is 10% a month. I'm already halfway there MTD.

Streetinvestor2:
Are u serious. Watin him see

Only he knows. The situation was supposed to get worse the the 15% Ad valorem, especially as TOTAL doesn't even have many retail outlets anymore. But thank God I'm out!

Streetinvestor2:
I no see person by I unit .I have even stop putting sell mandate.
Lol

someone came to mop up 1.4m units today, I've now exited about 80% of my holdings. The liquidity at this time will be very useful.

Index on track to have one of its heaviest sheddings this year. And MTNN full offer is yet to impact.

This market is really showing people shege

@streetinvestor2 were you able to exit TOTAL?

jonnysessy:
As it stands, I don't think it has anything to do with the stocks in his portfolio. The rate at which stocks is going down, you wonder when there will be stability. All the beautiful gains made during the bulls had gone down the drain. I am yet to see any stock that had not lost 10% since all these started. I don't think it has anything to do with portfolio diversification. Some of the expensive stocks can be gotten at a discount but, because no 100,000 units to move the price, they are giving false valuation in your portfolio. Example is Presco or Okomu.

My major problem is trying to jump in to average down, yet at the close of trading you discover that the stock shed more weight. If you now decide to wait, you may never know when the stock will start moving up again.
Even the rich also cry with what am seeing here.

MTNN, DANGCEM, BUACAMENT, BUAFOODS, SEPLAT.

These are all stocks you can buy at about 10% below the reference price. If they all had 100k to move them, the ASI would be down close to 10%.


Don't forget people who are still in TOTAL, GERGEU and TRANSPOWER. ASI sees nice prices for them, but the reality is people are ready to sell them at 20-30% discounts.



That when it makes sense to understand how to well interpret data.


But it's good that the headlines says market is up 44% YTD, it supports liquidity inflows, that's one thing traders like myself love about it.

The goal is to stay contented with what's been achieved, and not could have been achieved. Cos even if he sold at N18, there could still be the regret of what if he had put in N360m instead of N72m

emmanuelewumi:
You also need to consider liquidity


It is also difficult to target and sell at the 52 weeks highest price

Certainly sir.
Although the stock did full bid at N18 and N19 24 million units could have been sold within 3 days at N18 average, but at that time, people probably had their targets at N30.

And you can't blame him either, cos what if he sold at N6 after making 100% only to watch the stock move up to N19?

244m in gains is impressive, but when you think of the 181m that the guy has lost cos he didn't sell at the year high price, you just leave long termers to their choice.

that 244m has again lost another 24m cos current price is has dipped by another N1.

Maybe he's waiting to gain another 480m if price hits N32

emmanuelewumi:
It is worse than that , should be about 1 in every 500 sef

What's the total money supply?
How much of that belongs to govt and corporates?

Divide the rest by 1 million to get the average amount of cash held by the top 0.5%

I bet it's probably less than N40m.

Stocks, pension funds, debts etc are all subsets of the overall money supply cos na from the available money supply, stocks dey turn cash, otherwise na just paper value.


Anyways, being in this percentile isn't really worth anything imo.

For context, ask me to choose between being a regular guy with N2bn and being someone with spiritual powers and just N10m, I'd choose the latter.

Cos your N2bn can't save you from sudden death or incurable illnesses whereas your spiritual power would if it's the authentic type.


Money is just really over hyped. Like, it's not even useful on Mars for instance, abi if these AI enthusiasts had their way, it wouldn't even be relevant any more on earth.

Like robots do all the farming, make all the food, build all the cars etc and humans just enjoy, money isn't needed.


Other than making us feel good about ourselves, I don't see much relevance to these statistics.

But we should rather be grateful for the privilege and remember that we're not better than anyone else.

I always think to myself, what if I was born with some mental deficiency or something, whom would I have sued?

pluto09:
What we are having now is a pullback.
If we loose about 20% from the top,then we can begin to talk about bearish sessions
Will it turn to a bear market? I definitely don't know

It won't.

Itzlinda:
Yes, If we can to that level of output we wont even be afraid of rice importation as we can compete with farmers from other countries, but now we cannot

Isn't the importation meant to be for just 6 months sef?

It's looks like it's been running for over a year now.

Itzlinda:
You need 1.5 to 2 million naira to farm one hectare of rice farm depending on the location. You can get 50-70 bags of rice from one hectare depending on the soil and your luck. Nigeria has one of the lowest output per hectare in Africa because of lack improved seed and lower farmers knowledge. one bag of paddy rice now goes for 35,000 or lower. even if you have the maximum output of 70 bags per hectare, your total proceed is 2.4 milion. The average out per one hectare in Nigeria is between 45 bags to 60 bags.

I have pdf that details all our expenses. I will check and see if I can drop it here.

Thanks for sharing.

So part of the problem as you mentioned is the seed and farmer's knowledge. If these are fixed and you can get your output to 80 bags per hectare while cost stay at N1.8m, that looks like a gross margin above 50% at current prices. But I imagine it won't be as easy as said.

I wonder what those IITA guys are doing if our farmers are still having "sub prime" rice seeds given how much of a staple rice is.

Meanwhile CSCS hasn't sent me trade alerts for like 2 weeks now.
They've started going through a lot again.

Weldone o @Agba
Index has crashed below 150k

Valthegreat:
Please when did MTNN declare dividend, I haven't read this anywhere yet?

7 days ago

find the details here:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45363_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC-MTN_NIGERIA_INTERIM_DIVIDEND_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

ojesymsym:
Na wa, no economic news wen u non de follow. I know you are more of a programmer, how did you adapt financial knowledge into it.

I know that a combination of programming, data analysis and financial knowledge can basically mint money. If u non mind I go like know your career path or with the benefit of hind sight suggest one for someone wanting to combine those 3 fields.

Before I learnt Python, I learnt of All share index.
Programming was something I decided to pick up cos I like maths, and I didn't want all my earnings to be in naira.

Itzlinda:
No one woud have complained if what you painted is the actual scenario.

I have a rice farm and was very lucky to be at break even after harvest. Many farmers counted significant lost.

The cost of production stay elevated while the produce cost dropped by up to 70% in some instances.

The bulk of production cost in farming is labour and fertiliser cost. Surprisingly, while inflation has cooled off in many of the sectors, fertiliser prices are going up as at the middle of this year.

The fertiliser I bought 42,000 early January went as high as 70,000 during the last rainy season. So the farmers were are beaten from both front.

Many rice mills have closed shop because it is no longer profitable. No thsnks to the food importation allowed by the government

sorry about your experience.
The context you gave still isn't complete though?

like when you buy a fertilizer for N70,000, how many hectares is it expected to cover, or better still, when you farm 100 hectares of rice,
1. what quantity of fertilizer is required
2. what's the expected labour and seedling cost
3. what's the expected yield in terms of tons of rice paddy

With these context, it's easier to see the real picture.

I don't contest your context o, I'm just saying it'll be better if it's expanded.

Itzlinda:
But farmers are bleeding

Maybe the bleeding is not absolute.

If someone went into maize production with the expectation to sell at N100m per tonne, but the current price crash has turned his proceeds to N60m per tonne, of course he'll complain about the "lost" N40m, even if he cost didn't exceed N30m per ton.

I don't have practical experience to tell the exact situation, but I think Payusin is a poultry farmer here that seems to be enjoying more profits even though I pay slightly less for chicken and eggs now.

Potvalor:
I was thinking about the long term. Is it a sustainable approach? Didn't the current government put much blame on the earlier one for the same loans, and now they're repeating the same mistake? Imagine our Nation using 40-60% of our total yearly revenue to service debt. And it will keep ballooning up. Tbh, the current dollar/naira rate might not even sustain this level for long, and we might see a similar 2023 sharp devaluation within the next 2-5 years. Just my opinion though.

I agree with your perspective 💯💯

The real fix for the economy would be to have more productivity, export more and shore up our reserves with earnings rather than debts

That's why net reserves figures are a better measure of progress than gross reserves.

We're not having the best or ideal situation yet, but let's also not just write off any little progress.


Like the debt servicing you mentioned, I think it was once above 100% of revenue and mostly above 90% post COVID, now it's below 50%, and they can even take it to around 30% by simply lowering yields to around 12%.


There have been other borrowings in the past which haven't had a much impact on the gross reserves. Emefiele's second term was mostly a mistake for this country imo.

For productivity, there are measures of progress as seen from the consistent balance of trade surplus for many quarters now. It used to be terrible deficits.

For the currency, this is the first year the it has gained more than 10% yoy since 2017. Whether it's sustainable or not, run your forecast models and decide. But I will choose Alhaji's position which is rather bullish for now.

They're improving on some areas, they can do more in others. Agriculture, solid minerals, interest rates etc.

But for insecurity, they're not trying at all in my opinion. Citizens keep dying, terrorists keep living large?? They keep flying private jets upandan?? I mean how do you sleep in comfort knowing that your citizens are being killed ridiculously, like it doesn't bother you, it doesn't take sleep off your eyes??

That's the level of concern they should show, let's the president become so concerned about these killings that he starts getting sleepless nights and keeps all his military generals on their toes until the killings are drastically reduced, but no, they seem unbothered, almost trying to make it a new normal and it's super annoying.

Reuters reports a 12.5 bps reduction in both yields vs Business Day.
8.625 and 9.125

chimex38:
Good and bad seem to be balancing out these days.
Is this not countering the effect of the recent ₦1.1trn borrowings on the Naira? :-That's if the $2.3bn borrowing has been done and dusted; I doubt.

I don't understand what you mean by "countering" could you explain?

The instruments should be complementary??

Potvalor:
Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

You don't compare with u.s federal bonds.
You compare with other issues we done at yields as high as 11%
You compare with yields on Eurobond issues from other African government which are around 7-12%

Then you compare with yields on domestic debt which are around 19%.


No African government can get commercial instruments at same rates as the U.S government.

Why we're celebrating is cos this potentially helps the currency which in turn helps the purchasing power of the masses.

For instance at $2000 Keke napep would be 3.4m when USD was 1700, now if it crashes back to 1350, it will become 2.7m which is a relief for the man on the street hustling to buy one.


Same with polished parboiled rice.
Same with cars,
Same with refined petroleum products.

And quite importantly when foreign substitutes come down in price, even locally produced goods get cheaper.

Everyone gets to buy a little bit more.

If you noticed, part of the profits MTNN reported in Q3 that helped them exit negative shareholders funds and even pay a dividend was cos of naira 's appreciation.

Specifically about 61 billion in Q3 vs 105bn they're paying in dividends.