₦airaland Forum

jedisco:
Thanks. Gave thought to it as individually choosing stocks is quite risky and hardly beats the underlying market longterm. NSE 30 seems to have outperformed the ASI of late. But the fees from fund managers are quite exorbitant especially for a passive fund.
With stanbic, the management fee is 0.5% and the expense ratio of 2.7%. Such fees would see one give over 20% of potential gains back to the fund manager if held for a good period.

I think you can conveniently mimick NSE30 with N1m.

I mean you can just find out the 30 stocks that make up the basket, and their weighting, then replicate it in your custom NSE30 portfolio.

Instead of people buying Armani suits off your earnings 😁😁😁

chimex38:
Here

Ohh... I didn't even know you already answered.

Thanks.

jedisco:
Does any Nigerian broker offer a passive ETF of NSE 30 or different sectors of the share market?

I'm not sure, but you can try StanbicIBTC stockbrokers or Meristem.


Those guys also have their own ETF products whose underlying assets I'm not aware of. I just trade their wild swings 😁😁


Considering NSE30 is an amazing idea.
It has done over 150% in the past two years.

Of course, the 100m stock basket would only be 30% or less of my investment portfolio.

Other components would be:
Commercial real estate;
Bitcoin(in case Trump wins 😁😁);
Gold;
FCY cash;
FCY securities (debt and equity);

DigitalMallam:
On the bolded, I happen to be in this category, most of my investments are in Bond and MMF - I also love to play long term.
I recently opted out of EuroBond and converted to Naira having done x5. Looking for a good stock to enter now and wait for about 10yrs. Can I buy Seplat at the current rate? I also checked and noticed it's priced in NGN - how are they paying dividends in USD.
Much appreciated if you can reply

SEPLAT is dual listed on NGX and LSE, plus they sell oil in USD. That's why they pay in USD, but if you buy on the NGX, you'll only get the naira equivalent of the USD 0.03 every quarter.

I would say it's easier to make 10x on ACCESS than to make same on SEPLAT, the former trades at 0.25 book, while the latter trades near it's books value.(4x cheaper)

Access would also give about 10% dividend yield compared to SEPLAT's 5% (2x better).

Also, this year, Access has lost 20% YTD (buying opportunity) while SEPLAT is up 60% (maybe late entry)

However I don't hold stocks long term.

You can seek opinions from experts like @emmanuelewumi, Mpeace, streetinvestor2, skydiver01, and others whose monikers I might have left out.


If I had 100m to build a 5 year basket, here's how I would allocate it:

ACCESSCORP: 20% (it's undervalued)
SEPLAT: 15% (good FX hedge)
GTCO: 10% (enjoys premium pricing)
MTNN: 15% (mammoth, currently underpriced cos of fx issues)
NESTLE: 10 (glory days may come back)
Others: 30% on midcaps.

skydiver01:
I have addressed this in the past. I have a balanced portfolio. My bonds are about 10% of my portfolio. The rest are FX dividend paying shares that also provide capital gains. An example is shown below of an FX dividend I received in May this year.

Makes sense.
Makes much sense.

Sorry I missed your earlier post on the subject.
At 10% bonds weighting, your portfolio is even way better than I would have suggested.

look at 2019 numbers: (July 25, 2019)

skydiver01:
You are right. 13% to be precise. I feel great about them. In addition, I have recently bought more bonds (2034) at 19% yield. So its all good

Why do you like bonds this much na.

Just a suggestion o, I think you should rebalance your portfolio. Add some stocks.

You seem to be a long term person, why not add some good dividend paying stocks that would do like 8% in dividends and may still do up to 2000% in capital gains over the lifetime of those bonds.

SEPLAT trades for around $2.4 but pays $0.03 every quarter. That's 5% annualized.

But check the prices on July 25th 2023 vs July 26th 2024, The capital gains is about 134%.

Over the past 5 years, the only bellwether on NGX that's losing is NESTLE. It was overpriced to begin with though.

I understand you have your reasons and and I'm not suggesting they aren't awesome. I just feel you should be getting more returns
. It's sort of paining me 😁😁.

Just maybe consider pushing 20% of your bond portfolio to other asset classes with capital gains potentials sha: stocks, euro bonds, gold etc.

Except of course these asset classes already have a significant weighting in your overall portfolio.

Again, you don't have to take this seriously, it may be someone else who finds it useful, now or later.

Acidosis:
I don't have dollar in cash or investment anywhere, but I won't sit anywhere to discourage people who want to hold the dollar. I've lived in Nigeria for too long to bet in favour of Nigeria or the Naira.

With the recent increment in Nigeria's minimum wage, you will be wasting your time to assume the dollar will exchange for a thousand naira or less. The little gain from oil whatever will be used to offset salary and budgetary demands. The remainder will be stolen by your political kleptomaniacs.

I agree with you. We should do whatever we have capacity for to help the country though, whether it's praying or starting a farm, earning FX with your skills or building business with exports potentials.

Cos at the end of the day, for every politician that messes up, over 1000 citizens suffer. The politicians themselves hardly face any consequences.

skydiver01:
Meanwhile to change the subject from exchange rates and FPIs, the coupon payments for FGN bond 2026 & 2034 were paid/received on time Happy Days

Awesome.

But holding 2034
To hold one year sef is hard for me o. I just always feel an opportunity may just show up, not to mention the currency risk.

@aremso ^^^

squad1:
Hello. TB guru in the house. I advised a friend to invest in TB. After so much persuasion, she invested N20,000,000 for 3 months @ 16.3%. When I did the calculation for her, I told her to expect interest of about N811k.

She just called me now that's she got 794k then they deducted like 79k for tax and 20k because it is a corporate account and other charges reducing it to like 690k. Please, how come? She did it with Zenith bank. Is it because she used a corporate acct?

I need an explanation.

Here are some things I know:
1. Current accounts have what they call commission on Turnover. It could have other labels in different banks though. It's pegged at N1000 per mille. I stopped using my current account when I learnt about it. This is 2016 knowledge, there may be changes to it already. But as of 2016, most inflows/outflows on a current account have that whether it's money for Tbills or not.

2. The disparity in the 811k you calculated and the 794k she was given could be due to the tenor being something like 89 days if she bought from the secondary market.

3. I've been hearing of this WHT on TBills, so I decided to look it up, turns out the exemption expired in January 2022 and hasn't been renewed.

Oshokhai69:
Since you claim to be smart. Read what I write carefully and try to understand if I was talking about ever or now. I know you know what I have been saying all along. But you think you can make me look stupid and you smart by exaggerating my points. Na real wa.

I would never want to make you look stupid, but if I assume you're a troll or you're being mischievous or you like using foul language, I will try to put you in your place.


If an asset promises 30% nominal yield, but has a potential to do 25% in exchange losses, certainly the computer models at those investment houses would label those assets as subprime, and so those investors wouldn't be motivated enough to come.
This is your point, and it 1000% correct.

However there are mischievous posts you've made that probably makes it hard to see your arguments as well intended:

1. First post I read from you was you saying I insulted someone, Whereas the said person, maybe your cousin, was the one who started the insults, why didn't you direct your opinion to him;
2. You did say at some point something about me not admitting I was wrong, when I had just made an apology on an erroneous statement I made, that was quite mischievous.
3. You're saying it wasn't fpi inflows that helped the naira recover in March/April when it quite an obvious fact.
4. And there were immature talks like: you don't have 100k, where I enter you can't enter blah blah blah...

Truth is when someone assumes you're a troll or a mischievous person, they'll read your posts in that light, that's what happened, you're super smart is the reality I desire.

Oshokhai69:
Since you claim to be smart. Read what I write carefully and try to understand if I was talking about ever or now.

Fair enough.
I interpreted your post wrongly.

awesomeJ:
Some Goldman and even Middle East money may even flow in and help the currency.
If one buys 30% yield now and naira is at #1200 next year, the effective returns will be 71%.
meaning every $10,000 invested will become $17,100.

But I've gotta watch this school fees season demand first to better predict the market.

Here's the original post.
Read it again and ask yourself, does the post contain assertions or a hypothetical situation.

If you're smart enough to deduce, it's the latter,

Then ask yourself or your cousin that quoted the post first why you guys then got all worked up.

Oshokhai69:
Look at this one talking nonsense. I have intentionally ignored you before because honestly your post told me the kind of person you are. Not someone I would bother talking to in real life. But let me school you. The T bills are mainly being subscribed to by local institutional investors, mainly pension funds, with trillions of Naira that by regulation must be invested in Nigeria and not foreign investors that are bringing in dollars to subscribe to these bills.

I will school you again. Those sources you have listed do not show you who is investing. Please learn to keep your mouth shut when people are discussing things that you have no idea about. I bet that you have no idea why the rates are going as high as 30%. To someone like you, it is a good sign. Go and check what the yields on bonds and bills being issued by distressed countries are and ask your self why investors are instead fleeing and not investing.

Only a very foolish person thinks an investor sitting in London or New York with billions of dollars will jump on Nigerian T bills because of a 30% yield without looking at other macro factors that effectively eats up all the yield. Please go and learn how these things work so you can stop sounding dull!

Then here again..

Oshokhai69:
And you think seasoned investors from top investment banks with first class research houses don’t know these things? Are you smarter than them? You will hold your USD but think they are rushing here to buy the T-Bills because of a hopeless 30% yield?

Here..

Oshokhai69:
Please show me where I said ‘no smart folk can never invest in Nigeria’. If you cannot, then shut up forever.

You know very well I was talking about buying Naira at 1500 to invest in T bills at 30%. You know it. But if you memory is that short, please go back and read all my comments which have been at the current situation of the economy.

See frustration all over your writing. Calling me idiot, stupid, and other insults because I have called you out on false information you passed here without facts.

Clearly you are a very unhappy and angry person and I hope for your own sake that you don’t die of hypertension. See as you dey para for person wey you no know. I just dey imagine as you go dey follow your wife talk. Poor woman.

This same person go come go church tomorrow and say he dey pray to God. Na wa o.

1. When I say you're dumb, I don't mean "dumb" in the conventional sense. I actually mean you're choosing to act silly. It would be a sin on my part to call any human being "dumb". But obviously you're choosing to misbehave, it's that choice that I choose to label as "dumb". In terms of actual intelligence, I prefer to think that you're either as smart or smarter than I am.

2. I would look for the statement(s) I refer to, perhaps I misunderstood.

3. I honestly can't know what you mean, I can only interprete whatever you write, the normal etiquette of conversations requires that you clarify when you're being misconstrued.

4. I never passed any false information here or anywhere else. Feel free to quote or paraphrase the said false information.

5. I think I am quite happy, and I share the joy too, so you shouldn't worry about me. When folks like you choose to use foul languages though, I try to put you in your place, cos it doesn't really matter where you learn morals, at home or on a faceless forum.

If you really are a troll, I suggest you consider stopping. If not and all these have been a misunderstanding, I apologize.

Oshokhai69:
You continue to make stupid arguments instead of just giving up cos you always want to be right. What a narcissist.

The date is important because it has nothing to do with 2024 that we have been talking about. Don’t dig up an old article to buttress a point you claimed happened this year. In any case, how do you call it taking a risky position when you lend to a Central bank and take fx denominated assets as collateral?

To break it down for you, If you went to a bank to borrow money and they tell you they will only lend you money if you can give them investment grade USD securities as collateral, do you actually believe that bank has taken a risk on you? Guy, I have never seen anyone like you that can continue to argue even when presented with facts. Na real wa for you!

Thinking date has anything to do with your statement of "No smart folk would ever invest in Nigeria" is dumb. You not seeing that dumbness is a bigger problem.

Even if the investment happened in 1847, it still renders your assertion stupid.

Except of course you choose to modify the statement to specify a date.


Imagine a fellow idiot like yourself saying "A U.S president would never visit Nigeria"
Then you tell him, "But Clinton visited in 2000"
And the idiot responds to you saying, "That happened in 2000",

Can you imagine how you would rate his reasoning?

Well you would rate it high, cos it's exactly same as yours.

You will suffer a lot from such stupidity though, you won't be able to avoid making costly decisions, cos you're super dumb.

Streetinvestor2:
I would like you to put you mouth whr your mouth is.I know I can feed your generation. I have been in the stock market for over 20yr.My investment alone in ucap is big enough at .90kobo then.That said. Let show our strength in real money value.A bet can be arranged with a third party as holding agent. I stand that dollars will not do #2000 in the next 1 yr unless the country goes on civil unrest. I believe you can do 5Million on that.Let put our money into action or you get out from my mention

And for Dan cement dip is a normal thing in stock market. You this clown,I once bought the same stock for 145 and sold for close to #300.Do you equally know that ucap has moved from #25 to 40 Naira in less than 3 months. And dangota cement increased her div by 50% last Yr from #20 to#30 And you expect the result bad this yr with the price of cement doubling. How old are you really in investment things or you just get change from Yahoo to buy few dollars and data

The guy has incomplete knowledge, the ridiculousness of that is what we're seeing.

DANGCEM that has been doing 591 on full offer since April. The ignoramus assumes the crash happened just yesterday.

It's been trading as that same price for almost 4 months, yesterday just happened to be the first time a single trade with over 100k volume happened. That single trade being about 60m is why the crash tarried.

Over 90% of tickers on the NGX would have their prices change with just 5m trade.
DANGCEM needs 60m,
SEPLAT would need about 400m.

@that guy, I hope you've learnt something.

Oshokhai69:
Please shut it. You have no idea why rates fell. Go and ask insiders. They will tell you. I will give you a clue. It wasn’t just the Naira that appreciated that period. The Kenyan Shillings that was equally being battered like the Naira suddenly appreciated at the same time. You call that a co-incidence?

Ask the insiders, then tell us.
Cos it seems making stupid statements is sort of a hobby you nurse.

Oshokhai69:
Guy, is 12 months ago this year? And do you not clearly see that it is for 2022 financial year results of CBN?

Is there any position as riskless as lending money to a Central Bank and taking fx securities from its forex reserves sitting in offshore accounts as collateral? What’s wrong with you? You must argue about everything. Even when you are clearly wrong.
As I said before, it must be very difficult dealing with you in real life. Walahi I throwey salute for your wife.

You don't seem to understand how balance sheets work.

I'm aware the position is recorded in the 2022 statements.

But that doesn't mean GS entered or exited in 2022.

Now, why you're bringing time of investment isn't quite logical.

Did you say "GS would never hold Nigerian assets in 2024"?

Didn't you actually say:

"GS would never hold assets as risky as Nigeria's"

Maybe you have a problem remembering your own statements, go back and check.

Your point about the lending being securitized with the reserves makes sense, but this one about 2022 or no 2022 is void of logic based on the premise of your argument.


Now, I understand that GS doing a securitized lending isn't as risky as holding Nigerian debts directly. The point there is if they would do lending to a country, holding the country's debt isn't impossible as you're making it seem.
Same reserves that we're used as security can also be drawn on to settle debt.

Check the position of GS asset management, you will find that they indeed have open positions on African sovereign debt instruments.

The details of the specific countries in their portfolio isn't public, but it's quite likely the have FGN instruments.

Oshokhai69:
Oga, you are trying too hard to be smart. And you are being economical with the truth all because you want to appear right. What you are not saying is that the article was from last year for CBN’s 2022 financials. And you haven’t said what the money was for. It clearly was not investment in T bills. These firms lent money to CBN and CBN used its fx reserves as security. Na wa for you o.

First the article is from this year.
When GS took the position is not the point.
They could have taken the position in 2022 or earlier, they could have closed the position or still have it open, none of those are the points


The point is that you said erroneously that GS would never hold risky nigerian assets.

I have enlightened your ignorance, you should be reasonable enough to take the education.

Oshokhai69:
Instead of thinking you are smarter than me or that I am immature because you assume that anyone that goes against you is, maybe you should learn to have an open mind to opposing views.

FYI, I am not making an argument for or against Tbills vs USD. My response to that clown was to show that the wealthy are more interested in preserving their wealth vs making returns. And the wealthy have most of their wealth outside Nigeria.

My focus has been on the 30% yielding T bills. As you have claimed that Goldman Sachs and Middle East investors will troop in and crash the price of the Naira to 1,200. So why didn’t the Naira value increase in that auction that they brought 500m dollars abi 1.5 billion dollars according to you? If there was so much interest by foreign investors, why have yields continue to increase? Abi you think say na beer parlour drunks you dey follow talk?

I do have an open mind. However open mind doesn't imply agreeing with incoherent arguments. Make valid arguments if you want people to open their minds to your opinions.

Were you living under a rock when USD crashed from 1900 to 1000/1100 between February and April.

Wasn't it common knowledge that the crash happened largely cos of the increased inflows.

You just seem to have the impulse to always make an argument even if they contradict obvious facts.

You should look for some chilled drink now and sleep. It helps the brain:

..

You don't deserve these, but I'll indulge:

Oshokhai69:
Look at this one talking nonsense. I have intentionally ignored you before because honestly your post told me the kind of person you are. Not someone I would bother talking to in real life. But let me school you. The T bills are mainly being subscribed to by local institutional investors, mainly pension funds, with trillions of Naira that by regulation must be invested in Nigeria and not foreign investors that are bringing in dollars to subscribe to these bills.

I will school you again. Those sources you have listed do not show you who is investing. Please learn to keep your mouth shut when people are discussing things that you have no idea about. I bet that you have no idea why the rates are going as high as 30%. To someone like you, it is a good sign. Go and check what the yields on bonds and bills being issued by distressed countries are and ask your self why investors are instead fleeing and not investing.

Only a very foolish person thinks an investor sitting in London or New York with billions of dollars will jump on Nigerian T bills because of a 30% yield without looking at other macro factors that effectively eats up all the yield. Please go and learn how these things work so you can stop sounding dull!

I know @streetinvestor may want to ignore you, so hear this:

You really need to relax.
It's obvious you're quite immature, that's not something you should be proud of, just wait, hopefully you'll outgrow it.


The fact is foreign investors hold naira assets. You can Google what terms like FPI and hot money mean, instead of coming here to rant out your frustration. Goldman Sachs holds Nigerian assets. It's common knowledge that CBN has liabilities to them.


Earlier this year, we had a lot of inflows from FPIs, that at some point, they brought in as much as $1.5bn in a week. I remember FMDQ trading over $800m in a single day.

These kinds of facts are what you've been told to look up and stop acting all frustrated.

Perhaps you've lost money holding naira, and you're choosing to vent out your frustration on anyone that makes any pro naira analysis, well it's just inexperience that's worrying you.

This year, there's been a day I lost 5% in the stock market, but also there was a single day I made 25%. In Just one day.

Your approach should be to seek more knowledge and grow more sense rather than acting like you lost your rent betting on naira.

Oshokhai69:
I am no troll and I have no idea what those clowns are talking about when they say I am the other person. But what I can assure you of is that you can never ever smell the circles I roll in. Real talk!

You always think anyone that faults your illogical reasoning is out to get you and then you resort to insults. This is your modus operandi here and everyone knows that.

See the frustration in your comments on an anonymous forum. You sound like a narcissist and I’m willing to bet that you are a very unhappy person in real life.

I hope for your own sake, that it's true you're not the same person, cos that would be so unfortunate.

I think I can now ignore you. I've certainly given you more attention than you should get.

Oshokhai69:
Back to the issue at hand. You sit in your room and type about how investors are trooping in and out of Nigeria and investing billions of dollars and making 50% gains but if I ask you to show proof of these investments, you will start stammering. If it was so easy for investors to come and crash rates, why haven’t rates crashed since you claim the investors have been trooping in?

Dude, learn to only make comments that you can back with facts. You look very dumb when you make these beer parlour comments that you cannot back with facts. Yet, when asked if you could change your USD to buy T bills, you start contradicting yourself and thinking you sound smart.

The Nigerian economy is in shambles at the moment. The Naira has been very unstable and just hanging in there via artificial means. No smart investor is changing their USD to buy Naira to buy T bills right now. Of what use is a 30% yield on Tbills when you do not know what the Dollar will be selling at when you want to exit? Or you think those investors do not know that 1500 is not the true value of the Naira?

One day, when you become smart enough, the thread will still be here.
Then you can come back, read and COMPREHEND.

Oshokhai69:
And you think seasoned investors from top investment banks with first class research houses don’t know these things? Are you smarter than them? You will hold your USD but think they are rushing here to buy the T-Bills because of a hopeless 30% yield?

Yes.

What your dumb ass need to learn is that carry traders can easily raise $5bn dollars, exchange at 1600, push liquidity to the market, crash rates to 1200 and exit with over 50% gains in a matter of months.


It doesn't mean dumb asses like you who only have $5000 more or less, will be capable of taking such positions.


I know it'd be better to ignore you given the fact that your trolling profile has been established, but I feel it's costs nothing to add some knowledge to you.

Maybe your brain will get filled to a level that you begin to see the need to really get a life and stop fooling around.

Other things I'd keep an eye out for are:
- NNPC getting their acts together and having production ramped up to around 2m bpd;

- Dangote Refinery buying crude in naira, selling at least 80% of our fuel consumption in local currency, and selling $500m+ at NAFEM monthly

- Production of solid minerals like Gold ramping up


Those sort of things would mean real hope for a rebound.


But if it's all about "give us time" "give us time" that the government keeps saying after running through 30% of their time, then I've gotta hedge well.