₦airaland Forum

aj8:
Good Saturday morning BabsO2, Wema is probably the only Bank spelling it out in their weighted average. You can do the maths for UBA and ETI and kindly reflect it here if it differs. I did the maths, but willing to take corrections if they differ. At least we are stimulating discussions to improve our stock picks. Iron sharpenth iron.

aj8:
Yes

aj8:
Wema=39.50
GTCO=117.80
STANBIC=143
UBA=62.20
ACCESS =73.80
ETI=104.20
ZENITH=152.80

On Common Sense. Any doing below 5% dividend are likely to tick slightly lower in the short term but will eventual soar when the past is overtaken by future hope.

KarlTom:
Na wa o.

Make una buy my UBA o

nosa2:
I would like to humbly remind the UBA refugees that the ETI rocket is warm, cozy and welcoming.

Agbalowomeri:
UBA will not dip below 45. It will reverse on Tuesday after a dip

chimex38:
Speculation doesn't cut it.
How about Instantaneous value investor
Or just Instantaneous investor.
Buy at any instant of time it's undervalued
Sell at any instant of time valuation has peaked.

KarlTom:
If we ride with this narrative, who loses at the end of the day?

6.7bn units held

robobo:
You are right. The acquisition was not financed by UBA but be rest assured UBA would have been part of banks financing working capital (loan / overdraft with a max of yearly tenor). That said, the CBN rule is actually a double edged sword. In that in most frontier/ developing market, banks mogul/ owners are always also players in other sphere of the economy unlike in very developed markets. So there might be a need to find a delicate balance instead of policies that engendered total prohibition

Itzlinda:
Exactly why I feel there's foul play in their result.

UBA have more customer appeal (both high income and middle class) than zenith bank.

People trust uba more than zenith bank here in the north.

There's no reason why they should not be making more money than zenith bank.

I suspect foul play by their *perspire to aspire*chairman

megawealth01:
Na Tony handwork na all the companies him get is using UBA shu

Sunrisepebble:
I sell when I think they have peaked but I don’t buy because they’re rising

nosa2:
Its just a poorly run bank/business

Sunrisepebble:
I will add small speculation to mine

robobo:
What the CBN is trying to achieve with the 100% provision for insider related credit (whether performing or not)is to force bank directors with interest in other businesses not to borrow from the bank they own/ are directors in. This will ensure that those other businesses they own does not enjoy interest rate subsidy from their directors bank and also ensure they dont tie down the bank they own with bad credit. In short it will force those other businesses to compete for funding with thier competitors at a fair rate

robobo:
Ohhh. That was a response to a post by Agba. I stated it as "COULD" because no one can read wale's mind. Which is one of the reason i stated transparency and adequate communication as a key thing lacking from the management.

robobo:
I dont understand the bolded

robobo:
My reading of the Oando recent moves (2025/2026),, particularly after the Eni acquisitions.
1.
6. Oando might find it true worth/ balance after the clean up (which could take as much as 18-24 months to fully implement). WT could also decided to go private at that point (as mentioned by Agba)

Selah

robobo:
He go be like film IF/WHEN wale attends to those things i highlighted above.

BabsO2:
Those invested in Oando gather here.
I have the following NAV valuation based on reserves computed as follows
Company NAV per Share
Oando N429
Seplat N 8,980
Aradel N997

Oando is at a deep discount based on reasons already discussed upandan here. Most especially will its turnaround succeed in view of its debt over load. This NAV of N429 is the value those lending money to Oando see and are taking a good cut of. And the market has discounted it to current price of N39 to reflect its high risk turnaround profile.

As low margin revenues from trading goes down, will management succeed in transforming Oando into
👉 A leaner upstream-focused energy company
👉 With stronger balance sheet
👉 With sustainable free cash flow
👉 With higher reserve monetisation efficiency
And work towards its NAV based on reserves?

mikeapollo:
What valuation do you think is realistic based on hydrocarbon reserves?
Recall they still have more oil resources that could be reclassified as reserves in medium to long term

KarlTom:
It's a New Dawn for OandO...

megawealth01:
Otu lule loni

mikeapollo:
I think Wale and his team went into upstream business (from downstream filling stations) with little or no experience whatsoever in the sector!
Probably the reason they bought Conoco Phillips at an overvalued price, among other issues.
The inexperience is the biggest challenge and undoing.
It could have been different if he had worked in the upstream sector e.g. in a global oil company like Shell, Chevron etc. before acquiring Unipetrol/Oando or if he had gone into partnership with experienced professionals in the upstream sector.

robobo:
My own na btw N500 -N1000 after the book is cleaned (1. negative equity cleared 2. Adequate working capital has been raised (so less dependent on bank borrowing) and 3. dividend restored)

Krisuba:
I hope Bank result will not extend to may!! This suspense is getting too much

megawealth01:
E dey lule like WALE no send us again

KarlTom:
...

Agbalowomeri:
He will push it to 300 and sell

Itzlinda:
I don de add weight since I offloaded my oando shares. Oando would move 4% up today and 6% down next week.

This stock fit mess up with person mental health.

I will jump in once I see clear breakout

HesInMe:
You think Aradel and Oando's businesses are comparable? I own both; I'm not so sure.

megawealth01:
I doubt Wale very well 😔