₦airaland Forum

SonofElElyonRet:
I'm just saying his non inclusion of the encounter will not constitute proof that it didn't happen. He has a reason not to include it. He's Muslim. He could face backlash from fellow northern Muslims for "advertising" Christianity

And he might not have counted as a big thing as he may have so many records of such favours and gratitude prayers from many men and women. So how many should he list.

GeeKudi:
Not just this. There is a state owned palm plantation with refining facility that is up for sale by the Cross River state government.

Why the sales.? Why not operate them and make money.?
I think it takes corporate expertise to operate and build quality stakeholders that mint money and not lose money. My take is the sellers have concluded they ain’t got it (especially if it’s heavily tilted towards government ownership). And bet to sell the asset to someone who’s got it.

crownprince2017:
I personally i said here that ellahlakes CEO has a tangible results as his bargaining power which is yet to be revealed to the public.

Its important to also note that, I said they just want to corner some as they are feeling entitled just like majority of us will do. How much they want to corner is what we don't know.
That dangote guy will never come if he did not see breast in loco voice.

But time will reveal who is correct between us.

Pray they don't get too greedy like previous FBNH management

SonofElElyonRet:
The thought crossed my mind but it seems highly unlikely that Ellah wouldn't know that Presco would be interested in the asset and would be ridiculous to think that Ellah would hope to beat Presco to an asset belonging to the latter's chairman

Ellah being a baby in red oil has two risks to shareholder prosperity. 1. Greed of management. Not enough data to assess this properly. e.g. Historically GTCO management is far far better than FBNH management in this greed index. 2. Learning curve and establishment / development of stakeholders needed to mint money from the business. Based on these two and from currently limited available info I wish another person grab the so asset they want to purchase. Make them walk before running.

Perhaps PRESCO has already got ahead in pursuing the asset ELLAH is targeting. That will be nice as it's good ELLAH gains some experience first operating its first mill and establish it's stakeholders (engine) for printing money gradually. As it still has a corporate learning curve / stakeholder establishment it needs to pursue. Elllah needs to crawl and walk first before attempting to run.

emmanuelewumi:
Personally, I don't want to believe the revenue figures quoted by Ellah Lakes.

I believe it is higher than that.

Micro and smaller businesses are generating more N70 million revenue in 9 months

I have note before ELLAH needs to improve book keeping. Also I understand human desire for wealth, entrepreneurs pushing new ventures will want to corner some money and make themselves rich from their entrepreneurial pursuits through various games. They just need not be too greedy and at least try to be fair to others (shareholders) who have financed their dream.

emmanuelewumi:
But it is selling at a premium to it Book Value of 6. It should sell at a discount


The net asset of about N23 billion could only generate a meagre revenue of less than N70 million in 9 months

Those that want it at a discount are not interested and should stay out till they see the valuation they want based on earnings QED

Dupeodus:
Yes, I know that. The multiples of book value over capitalization and low p/e ratios are the primary reasons I reallocated my portfolio to the quality banks. However, a single incident of write off of a large troubled asset can wipe off the shareholders' funds and the p/b ratio is suddenly not as juicy as it looks.

That’s the BIG risk with banks price to book. And why CBN is there as an additional layer of checks on top of audit firms. Shareholder funds can just disappear into thin air due to poor risk management.

emmanuelewumi:
It is selling above the Book Value even though it not profitable and declaring losses coupled with poor revenue...

For the justified Price to Book Value ratio to be more than 1 on BGX, the return on equity must above 20%

Book value can be used as there are matured similar businesses in ELLAH’s space.

And talk about valuing banks with price to book

Ellah Assets are real. They cannot disappear like the toxic assets of some aggressive banks.

megawealth01:
Today's Top Volume Trades

Strategic accumulation or MM action in Linkage

SonofElElyonRet:
Yes
Loco's N10 projection would be good though

I am waiting to see how low ELLAH will come down back to. I will rather take more bets on ELLAH at N9 or N10 (as speculative investment biased speculator) should it fall back that low (or N12 sef). I have very old leftover Japaul will ride that should Jegede play the game or not play the game. There is a chance he won't.

EDUECO:
EPS of around 3+ Naira for half year and someone rebuked me for calling FCMB as a blue chip company. The 3+ Naira is about 25 percent of the current stock price.

Someone should tell me if the half year EPS of Nestle, Okomu,Presco or even GEREGU is up to 25 percent of their current stock price?

Many investors relegate the earning factor of any company when buying stocks. The future success of any company depends on its good or excellent earnings potential and not on its poor or fair earning potential.

The intelligent investor must take cognizant of the intrinsic value/margin of safety when buying a company's stocks.

A company that has consistently been paying good dividends is a company that possesses intrinsic value;and such a company has margin of safety.

Las las we are all speculators at different positions in the speculation continuum. At an extreme end are Fundamental investors who have a portofolio tilted towards bonds and currently solid stocks with strong FA ratios (they speculate growth and or earnings are iron clad). On the other extreme end are traders that day, week or month trade (speculating their TA signals and other betting assumptions and signals will not fail) and the rest in between or mixing everything together.

SonofElElyonRet:
Did rough calculation. Stand to be corrected. Japaul currently has 14 billion shares and going to 100b shares meaning they are creating 86b new shares. They're raising N500b. 500b ÷ 86b = N5.81 per share. Roughly price per share for capital raise. Floor price expected to exceed this

This calculation suggests a floor price of at least N6 is needed. Preferably N7 floor price if the cost of profit takers is not too much.

mikeapollo:
Okay, I think there are two issues involved but we've mixed things up somehow:
1). Oando refunded money (equivalent $635m) to two shareholders, which reduced their equity balance, going into negative.
2). They received shares forfeited/returned by some related entities who could not settle their debt. in cash.

The shares from (1) and/or (2) above are the ones being redistributed to existing shareholders now.

Perhaps it’s 1 & 2 being distributed indeed.

Though the share distribution story seemed to have started from 2. But if only 2 what happened to 1, didn’t record those shares were reported as cancelled. So the distribution may be from both issues.

mikeapollo:
Actually, Wale mentioned that cash was paid to former shareholders, and this had been confirmed years ago at previous AGM and in press releases

That’s a different shareholder that was bought off to forestall him brouhaha escalating. And that shareholders name was reported in published annual reports. This current share distribution is a different shareholder that took money from O&O group and didn’t or couldn’t refund the money but rather relinquished shareholding.

emmanuelewumi:
If used for FUGAZ the cheapest bank will sell for over N100

Bank shareholder funds face a higher risk to erosion from ops than other stocks. But with the way MTN and DANGSUGAR SHF turned negative between quarters each business need to valued differently by analysts. I know you know but just trying to have a laugh

Streetinvestor2:
Why use that metrics on this sector. Use it on the banking sector and see how it is not realistic. Do for access bank with gtbank

I think banks a different kind of account and risks. I guess that's why accounting standards have been upped for them as well as for other companies too. Plus for the Banks central banks also do their own audit and checks on top of auditor audits. Looking at TOE and the way he executing UBA capital raising as he is heavily impacted. It should suggest that banks are currently under-priced by the NGX. Also looking at the first and 2nd GTB capital raise it is clear good banks are underpriced. For those not following closely the N44 GT capital raise last year was not fully subscribed. Yet they got a successful LSE capital raise at nearly double that price.

emmanuelewumi:
Since it is not yet profitable why dont you use Price/ Sale.

Compare the revenue to market capitalization. Average Price/Sale ratio in the sector is currently 3.5

You know it has not entered maturity for price to sale now. But price to book doable at a discounted rate for risk of earnings not materializing. The discount rate to use is the call of the investor.

mikeapollo:
Again, he explained that Oando experienced negative equity balance because they had to refund to a former shareholder the equivalent of over $500m, otherwise there wouldn't have been negative shareholders fund.
The shares returned (by the former shareholders) are the ones now being redistributed to exisitng shareholders.

Wale is doing well for distributing the shares to shareholders instead of using it for capital raise. Pray he succeeds with the turnaround and continue to be good to shareholders going forwards by streaming dividends that he talked about at the 2023 November shareholders meeting.

Streetinvestor2:
I want to engage since u even bring out numbers.
Since u talked about eps.
Pls what do u see as possibility using 3 tonnes capacity of mill at full operation can give in future to eps based on Os in 1-5 yrs

It's easier using book value per share to estimate a fair value for ELLAH lakes which I already did at current book value earlier this week. With the way PRESCO book value jumped between 2024FY and 2025Q2 I will not be surprised to see a jump in ELLAH BVPS at the end of July. EPS will follow thereafter this is my speculative bet on ELLAH. And it seems market is supporting this bet with the way ELLAH share price is rising. Time will tell.

.

megawealth01:
I'm not telling you to do same joor. This is the first time I am saying this strategy in public and I have my reasons

My left over ELLAH alone is FORTUNE on its own. I'm intentionally INTENTIONAL in this GAME 🎯

Easy 9 digit naira left over

SonofElElyonRet:
Yes bro.. you are disciplined. Make I still leave my own.. I'm dreaming big. Na N3.30 I kuku enter

I think you should be fine. Those of us that took some insurance (took some profit) are finding the insurance relatively expensive with the way ELLAH is charging ahead. As we are not currently multiplying as fast as we could if we did not take a dime of profit. We can console ourselves of not being too greedy

chimex38:
I want to believe Ellah lakes can't do magic to reflect the current price in the forthcoming Financial statement. But I also want to believe they will produce an improved, modernized and worth presenting financial result. Compared to last year.


Remember, results are compared Y-on-Y and Q-on-Q.
FY2025 should be better than FY 2024 in percentage.

It's possible ELLAH will come up with higher book value per share as they could revalue their biological assets. And that could be a driver for the sharp share price rise. In my post earlier this week i showed how PRESCO book value has been rising sharply even between 2024 full year and 2025Q2 perhaps since ELLAH used presco seeds their book value will just start shooting up followed by shooting up in earnings per share in years ahead.

nosa2:
The price I am willing to pay is based on the valuation of the company not the listed price.

Valuations are dynamic.
2025Q2 book value for PRESCO is N230.
2024 Audited was N133
2023 was N74
2022 was N34

Oil Palm Biological Assets are just multiplying at the rate of growth of seedlings.

If Ellah currently has a book value of N6 from last quarter you can project what that book value will be in a year or two if their palms have started fruiting. Presco's market price is about x6 its book value. That should help you with projected market value for Ellah if things go well as planned. If I use x4 current book value then Ellah is a N24 stock some months ago

Word of Caution:
OKOMU book values have not risen like that of PRESCO, Perhaps PRESCO has a larger stock of trees at that are maturing while OKOMO has older stock of trees in steady state growth.

mikeapollo:
You have not explained how the jet engine would enhance the operations and improve profitability of Oando.

Are you joking those are metaphors to represent the turnaround taking full shape with positive shareholder funds milestone etc. I have not downloaded the AGM and EGM videos for watching. But someone mentioned yesterday that Wale talked about resuming dividend payments at a time ahead.

Umehj88:
The mill

This ELLAH mill is looking bigger than 3 tonnes o. No wonder the price is flying higher and higher.

mikeapollo:
Jet engine ke?
What kind of jet engine and what is the relevance or potential impact if overhaul is successful?

Once the turbine blade that is showing a crack forming in the X-ray is replaced successfully it’s a smooth ride to 3 digits. But will a replacement blade be found? By the time a replacement blade is found, market will even start upward price adjustment.

Oando jet engine undergoing overhaul. Waiting for Q3 results to take off if overhaul is successful.

Stockhunter:
Flesh and blood did not reveal this to you.. 😊

Very very heavy funds in Linkassure in the last five trades in strategic accumulation. No TA can say when they will stop, only the strategic buyer has the say. N2.5 or N5 bus stop. Only the strategic buyer makes that call.

SohSoh:
Ladies and Gentlemen of this NGX Forum....please join me as i take ... Mr crown prince too school ....

My Personal Advice AFTER YOU SEE THIS PLEASE GO N BUY ELLAH LAKES AND LET ME CONTINUE TO GBAS GBOS THE ELLAH LAKES EVERY MALLAM TO THEIR KETTLE ... the stock price went up well over 200% so make i just dey yan and misyan

Investor wey no dey read....

1 : Picture 1 attched :: This news article here from 2018 is an overview of Ellah Lakes, its business and competitors.

Ellah Lakes claimed to have been in the oil business since 2018... It is stated here in n the news.. but I'm not going to focus on that.


Competitors Listed : Everest Farms Limited : pictured attached produces or product from Everest Farms.


Point 2/3 :: in 2022 Ellah Lakes took over Ada rice from Enugu state Govt, no pictures or produce of the rice... from Them ... Picture attched Rice by Lagos State Govt... cos should know if Enugu produced the rice. . The then governor would have wanted press to cover it...


Point 3:: in May 2019 Ellah lakes took over Telluria Farms.... a company they claimed is into Palm oil production...

But in 2024 Ellah Lakes declared zero revenue.....

I'll stop here the matter too much .... see after you see this PLEASE GO N BUY ELLAH LAKES.... EVERY MALLAM TO THEIR KETTLE

Before Thomas Edison got the combination to give us the first light bulb it literally took him a thousand steps/trials. Many new ventures spring up but all do not succeed. Also Elon Musk's Tesla was not his first Entrepreneurial venture. So YES Chuka and or the Leadership of Ellah may have had some false low ambition and high ambition starts. With persistence they could hit it real big. However they need to improve their bookkeeping practices going forward. That's my take. With PRESCO and OKOMU they now have a charted course to learn from with respect to exploitation of Oil Palms. Wish Ellah good success.