Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:36am On May 18 |
mikeapollo: Wale may be coming up with something. Although they promised to release 2025 audited results on or before May31. May be some people have seen the results and it is good.? Make them release the result joor. Make we pray this journey doesn't fizzle out like that. But lead to the 3 digit destination without delay. My estimate of OANDO valuation is nearly mid way into four digits based on cashflow from reserves entitlements. Even with the planned dilution from Capital raise, it's valuation is still far from current market price. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:10am On May 18 |
Oando just gained a perfect 10%. So good. Lovely. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:04am On May 08 |
Thanks for your simple metric. Much appareciated. aj8: My apologies, Xidget. Veritaskap eps isn’t just adding up. Will post after studying it closely. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:01am On May 08 |
💯 zendi: JOJI ease is among the great benefits of itrading. Stress free wealth building. Watch market and vibes, play with numbers, probabilities and scenarios. All electronically. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:23am On May 08 |
Agbalowomeri: They should pay N10 if the book is truly clean Make them just start with Interim of N1 in September |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:19am On May 08 |
I need more JOJI Oando. megawealth01: If you investing in OANDO, Access and ELLAH you need a lot of PATIENT FUNDS JOJI requires no new funds as one Jumps out of a stock (usually losing momentum) to Jump into another that must take-off sooner or later  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:52am On May 08 |
Terrible full year result with N0 divided. Price going up as Insiders are now free to buy as they please, since results are now released. Ote$ must be loading. He should bring the price to 3 digits joor. N100+ fits the bank.  Abbasmh: I thought FIRSTHOLDCO released a bad result, but it’s currently going up at the market opening. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:24pm On May 06 |
robobo: Oga Babs
i have heard you but you are not paying attention to my concern "arbitrariness".
i agree that the 8% you stated above is quite low per the average within the Nigerian banking industry and should be worked on by Access (Notwithstanding the fact that the figure is within Basle requirement)
my point is why the focus on selling of subsidiaries as a means to achieve that aim. when the ratio has two other components?
In terms of liquidity (i.e. easy to achieve/sell/realised) the most liquid component of the ratio is the "liability" several of which will expure within twelve months (e.g. fixed deposits/ CP/ Bonds e.t.c) why not forbade the bank from taking fresh liabilities when those ones matured towars achieving the desired ratio?
another reasoning is that the equity part of the ratio has several other components apart from "sale of subsidiaries" which are easier to achieve than the desired "sale" e.g. retaining profit. so why not this route other than the sale of subsidiaries? are the subsidiaries making a loss (i.e. leaking capital) I am saying, I hope it's not arbitrary. That I hope it's an evolution of learning and safeguarding against risks from toxic assets. That I get all what you are saying that I agree more slack needs to be given to reduce risk to ALL stakeholders including ACCESS. Asset disposal is not a piece of cake. Neither is gathering of more equity investment funds. ACCESS should please be given more time and more options to mitigate perceived risks. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:38am On May 06 |
Multigenerational legacy Proverbs 13:22 - "A good man leaves an inheritance to his children's children" megawealth01: I'm building AUDIO WEALTH for many generations unborn because real wealth is in AUDIO format |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:26am On May 06 |
More Audio Assets joor  megawealth01: ACCESS should do quick and become less than 20 naira. No time pls |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:54am On May 06 |
robobo: I dont see how what you stated correlates to closing down subsidiaries.
For sake of argument, lets agree that it does. To the best of my knowledge the equation you portray has 3 components and any of the 3 could be worked on to bring the ratio desired by the sheriff. So why insistence on just a variable impacting only one of the components Total Equity of Access to Total Assets is only 8% in the Audited 2025. That is even thinner than the Nigerian Bank Average. I am just speculating that CBN is trying to save ALL stakeholders from toxic assets. Raising more liabilities and equities comes at costs that could even worsen profitability. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:08am On May 06 |
ppogba: You have made valid points.
However, let us give the regulators the benefit of the doubt considering the facts that there are egg heads employed to do the thinking especially knowing fully well the implications of any fooly.
As far as they are doing it to safeguard all stakeholders, the better for all and sundry. Yes o safeguarding all stakeholders is better for all and sundry |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:06am On May 06 |
robobo: The sherrif is not new (50% of his first term gone already)
I am positive one or two of the acquisition will have passed through the sheriff for approvals (which was not decline)
The sheriff should avoid arbitrariness otherwise how does he want to portray an higher moral grounds than the players he is policing Regulations need to be updated as new knowledge or risks emerge. However as it’s a new regulation CBN should give more time for compliance. Equity + Liabilities = Assets Equity is about 13% of Assets for the average Nigerian Bank. That’s a thin cover. 10 being a round number may be what is pushing CBN to bring that 10% restriction. To preserve depositors and the banking industry from risky acquisitions. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:01am On May 06 |
Equity + Liabilities = Assets Equity is about 13% of Assets for the average Nigerian Bank. That’s a thin cover. 10 being a round number may be what is pushing CBN to bring that 10% restriction. To preserve depositors and the banking industry from risky acquisitions. Regulations need to be updated as new knowledge or risks emerge. However as it’s a new regulation CBN should give more time for compliance. robobo: i beg to disagree
while i am also not in sync with Access aggressive expansion of late. However, the treatment being meted by the regulator look very arbitrary and might not pass a test of logic
1. Didnt the regulator approved each of the buying in the first place? (because such buying are subject to regulatory approvals)
2. if so what had changed between the approvals and now to warrant a rollback?
3. for the sake of argument let accept a rollback is justified, how was the 12 month deadline (for sale) arrived at?
4. Does precedent (of mergers & acquisition) support the 12 months (when most of the buying took more than 12 months)
5. how was the 10 of SHF arrived at? what are the metrics driving the limit set?
6. is the regulator leaving the realm of regulation to dictate how a private coy deploy its capital
n.b i have very minimal and inconsequential units in Access but only concern about regulatory overreach |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:15pm On May 05 |
You must have bought in several places and or several times. I filed a consolidation form. I got this dividend in one piece. jonnysessy: ZENITH BANK I don't know why Veritas Registrars is fond of doing this to me every year. Every time they keep paying me my Zenith bank dividend in piecemeal. They eventually will comply after i have engaged them through emails. I don't know why i always have to forward my CSCS statements to them before they will fully pay me. Meanwhile, i need this money together to solve a pressing need. Let me wait a day or two before we begin to exchange emails. Can they try this with my retired Chairman Mr jim Ovia ? Part of the work of a registrar of a company is to keep the company book, i wonder why i should be the one supplying them information before my complete dividend is paid. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:55am On May 05 |
Many are eyeing and topping up. megawealth01: What is holding UBA from coming really down na? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:50pm On May 04 |
Dupeodus: Is this speculation or facts? If it's facts, then it's a material misrepresentation that no auditor should sign. Bond, carrying a coupon rate is bond, regardless of which tier. It's interests should be charged against earnings. That it is tier 1 only partain to ranking in event of liquidation. It does not make it equity and it ranks higher than equity. Ask ChatGPT or other AI it’ll tell you how to treat it such tier 1 funds inside equity . ETI stated clearly. And followed the process without ambiguity. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:53pm On May 02 |
Look at how ETI and ACCESS stated their Q1. UBA needs no correction as they are not entangled with any Tier 1 USD equity instrument. I have not looked at WEMA, but the last I recall they have no dollar equity instrument patch. aj8: Good Saturday morning BabsO2, Wema is probably the only Bank spelling it out in their weighted average. You can do the maths for UBA and ETI and kindly reflect it here if it differs. I did the maths, but willing to take corrections if they differ. At least we are stimulating discussions to improve our stock picks. Iron sharpenth iron. ETI Q1Profit after tax 197,528Attributable to: Ordinary shareholders 128,336 Other equity instrument holder 5,066 Non-controlling interests 64,125 ACCESS Q1Profit attributable to: Equity holders of the parent entity 200,526Non-controlling interest 38f 16,011 Profit for the period 216,537Access lumped up what ordinary shareholders are entitled to with what Tier 1 equity instrument holders are entitled to together and labeled it as Equity holders of parent entity. This will cause erroneous overstatement of EPS of shareholders. The Tier 1 equity bond ($500m) holders are intitled to an interest payment of 9.125% per annum. A more accurate EPS estimate should deduct 500*1450*0.09125/4 = NGN 16,539m from the Q1 profit before computing a more accurate earnings per of (200526-16539)/53317.838433 = NGN 3.45 For your PE of 5 common sense estimate Access Valuation becomes. 3.45*4*5=69. Because of too much uncertainty on the health of their acquisitions don't think they deserve the same PE as UBA. So corrected EPS for Shareholders for ACCESS Q1 = N3.45 Your PE of 5 estimate for Access should value it at N69 But Access deserves a fair of PE of 4 if other banks are 5  that is common Sence value of 55.2 
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:53pm On May 01 |
I think that profit attributed to equity holders is a sum of what common shareholders and what tier 1 bond holders are entitled to. I don’t think everything belongs to common shareholders. ETI that have similar tier 1 bonds separate these entitlements clearly. Please double check. aj8: Yes |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:46pm On May 01*. Modified: 11:02pm On May 01 |
That Access computation looks wrong. Access doesn’t have a higher fair value to UBA. Good to double check the entitlements of the tier 1 bond holders is deducted from the stated profit attributable to equity holders and not take erroneously the whole amount as belonging to common share holders. ETI that has similar tier 1 dollar bonds in their equity structure state the entitlement of tier 1 bond holders more transparently in their annual reports. aj8: Wema=39.50 GTCO=117.80 STANBIC=143 UBA=62.20 ACCESS =73.80 ETI=104.20 ZENITH=152.80
On Common Sense. Any doing below 5% dividend are likely to tick slightly lower in the short term but will eventual soar when the past is overtaken by future hope. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:35am On Apr 27 |
KarlTom: Na wa o.
Make una buy my UBA o  N40.1 or at best N44.55  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:29am On Apr 27 |
nosa2: I would like to humbly remind the UBA refugees that the ETI rocket is warm, cozy and welcoming. ETI rocket wey don lose momentum. UBA engines getting final settings, once the weak hands have disembarked the door will be shut for take off.  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:35pm On Apr 26 |
 Agbalowomeri: UBA will not dip below 45. It will reverse on Tuesday after a dip And range 45+/-5 till the bulk of the weak hands are shaken out before climbing up. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:41pm On Apr 25 |
chimex38: Speculation doesn't cut it. How about Instantaneous value investor Or just Instantaneous investor.  Buy at any instant of time it's undervalued Sell at any instant of time valuation has peaked. Maradona JIJO swap dance  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:24pm On Apr 25 |
 KarlTom: If we ride with this narrative, who loses at the end of the day? 
6.7bn units held |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:23pm On Apr 25 |
robobo: You are right. The acquisition was not financed by UBA but be rest assured UBA would have been part of banks financing working capital (loan / overdraft with a max of yearly tenor). That said, the CBN rule is actually a double edged sword. In that in most frontier/ developing market, banks mogul/ owners are always also players in other sphere of the economy unlike in very developed markets. So there might be a need to find a delicate balance instead of policies that engendered total prohibition Indeed. It’s a good thing if UBA can loan money to TOE’s connected businesses. Restricting such corporate loans will be wrong. Especially the listed companies. For non listed companies restrictions should be in place. Perhaps the restrictions is related to personal loans and not corporate loans. Will be good to know which one. And provisions for personal loans look one kind as that money can vanish. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:07pm On Apr 25 |
Itzlinda: Exactly why I feel there's foul play in their result.
UBA have more customer appeal (both high income and middle class) than zenith bank.
People trust uba more than zenith bank here in the north.
There's no reason why they should not be making more money than zenith bank.
I suspect foul play by their *perspire to aspire*chairman I suspect he’s also not happy with shareholders as he was left to shoulder a huge chunk of the rights. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:07pm On Apr 25 |
UBA is a hold for me. I like their Q1 deployment of cash. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:04pm On Apr 25 |
Synergy  megawealth01: Na Tony handwork na all the companies him get is using UBA shu  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:00pm On Apr 25 |
Okay momentum seller. Value buyer. Sunrisepebble: I sell when I think they have peaked but I don’t buy because they’re rising |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:51pm On Apr 25 |
UBA still grew TOTAL customer deposits by 10.4% which is just about the same rate Zenith grew customer deposits. UBA total customer deposits is double that of GTB. If you look purely at only day to day customers UBA even grew deposits better than Zenith. These are vote of confidence signs by customers to UBA’s banking services. nosa2: Its just a poorly run bank/business |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:39pm On Apr 25 |
You’re a momentum investor Sunrisepebble: I will add small speculation to mine |