₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
I know it is owned by Tolaram, an Indian holding company with interests in various sectors of the Nigerian economy.


Indians are smart business people, the asset is probably overpriced or they are not getting the desired value and return from the asset based on the fact the asset is not in their area of core competence

They may also need additional strong stakeholders that can make things work better.

emmanuelewumi:
They would have done a merger between APN and Ellah Lakes, Ellah Lakes shares would be given to APN and it be listed on NGX.
Or give a loan to Ellah Lakes and then convert to equities.
There won't be any reason to extend the public offer
By the way these are not included in the offer documents

And they may chose to go through PO if that works better for them and their parties. Is everything always stated on offer documents? Or just what is needed for completing the job.

emmanuelewumi:
I know it is owned by Tolaram, an Indian holding company with interests in various sectors of the Nigerian economy.


Indians are smart business people, the asset is probably overpriced or they are not getting the desired value and return from the asset based on the fact the asset is not in their area of core competence

They may be looking for a way of listing indirectly while getting some other core investors on board while taking some profit and still retaining major or sizeable stake.

SonofElElyonRet:
My 3 million units bought at about 3.50 don do. Let me hodl till long term. Target is to get to a point that dividend will be around cost price or more

My average cost price was less than 3.50 before I sold a third at about 8.5 and the broker sold more than I told him to sell reducing my holdings to less than 2/3 of original.

ositadima1:
This is not a clear or objective argument; it is like someone speaking from a pre-existing negative bias. And in that second point, why should I be the one justifying your argument with numbers?

Let’s consider some simplified comparisons. Presco has a market capitalization of about ₦1.45 trillion with roughly 26,566 hectares of planted oil-palm. Okomu is valued at about ₦1.03 trillion with around 19,011 hectares planted. ARPN, the asset Ellah is acquiring, is valued at approximately ₦155 billion and has about 6,280 hectares of planted oil-palm. When you compute the implied per-hectare valuation, Presco comes out at roughly ₦54.6 million per hectare and Okomu at about ₦54.2 million per hectare. ARPN, at Ellah’s valuation, is around ₦24.7 million per hectare.

It’s a simplified calculation, yes, but it clearly shows that ARPN is cheaper on a per-hectare basis. If you have a different valuation model, then you should present it.

Your first point also doesn’t logically support your conclusion. The CEO not being an agriculture professional is not a disqualifying factor for running an agricultural company, that is simply not how corporate execution works. The more relevant questions would be whether Ellah has operational depth, whether it has the execution capacity to integrate a much larger entity, and whether it has the political and local-stakeholder leverage required in the plantation business. Those are the real issues, not the CEO’s academic background

Love to see simple numbers like this. It shows Ellah has room to grow from current PO price.

I can imagine the owners of ARPN will be the majority owners of Ellah post PO. Or some market makers. And these people will be the majority owners of Ellah post PO and will be the ones managing the business going forward.

My bet is these ARPN owners & or some market makers will be the new majority shareholders of Ellah going forward. And will play key roles in making their investment successful while enjoying the benefits of being listed on NGX.

Will pick up some PO to add to my front row positions once I cross check these simple numbers.

machine606:
Have X-alart been suspended? Haven't got any since last month!

Didn’t get any alerts on the trades I made this week. Aah so the issue is up to a month.

toyeoye:
Oil prices update

Many factors are pulling oil prices down and a few are pulling it up. If not for OPEC+ oil prices will be lower than current market prices.

BabsO2:
Perhaps the seller is the one buying. Or it’s a swap between a buyer and seller. Or a mix. Have you thought of that. All good for those of us in front row seats. In fact excellent. Time will tell.

My bet is Ellah public offer will be fully subscribed !!! Good for those of us in front row seats
The one I cannot bet on yet, is when they'll start churning good profits and dividends to shareholders.

SonofElElyonRet:
Wow. 27% per annum interest. You na strong man o.
Think current Ellah shareholders would've preferred discounted price via rights issue which Chuka Mordi refused to accede to.. you shareholders at Presco got rights issue

Perhaps the seller is the one buying. Or it’s a swap between a buyer and seller. Or a mix. Have you thought of that. All good for those of us in front row seats. In fact excellent. Time will tell.

lexy2lexy:
Do you mind disclosing how much you bought on the floor?

Less than a thousand

emmaodet:
Though i picked up my Presco right but how can i trade my rights?

I usually sell in the market out of what I already have and pick it up back by taking my rights if I want to trade rights. But this requires market price to be attractively higher than rights price.

There are other official ways like filing the rights form portion for trading rights. Or getting in touch with broker to set up the rights for trading on the floor. Never used em. But aware.

I bought PRESCO cheaper than rights today on the floor.

Ding !

The bull triumphing the bear ahead (today, within a week or month or couple of months)

PRESCO is overpriced. I cannot even trade my rights. Those that want it can pick up PRESCO and Ellah RI & PO.

nosa2:
I don't know how old you are but the growth was largely driven by telecoms liberalization and bank consolidation. The next step to push to industrialization was liberalization of the energy sector but the people resisted the govt when they tried to implement the reforms.

The people resisted because they failed to understand that their decisions ultimately affected their future. Now that the future is here the people are learning and crying. This is how nations are built. Nigerians are now learning that there are future consequences to their current decisions.

I am young. I can recall your buying FBN etc back in the stock market Nigeria days.

You left out massive growth in FX reserves that led to President Obasanjo paying off debts. Crude oil money is the major source of the growth. The crude oil income has multiplier effect. Telecoms and banking were multiplier effects.

PuristForest:
There are many 'lazy' countries that dont work half as hard but have all the required infrastructure plus enough to care for elderly and others ...i dont think its all about work....quality education and people doing the right things matter alot .

Work plays a key role. Those nations you are referring to have invested over a 100years of relatively heavy high value adding work spanning generations.

nosa2:
Between 1990 and 2010 China achieved an average annual growth rate of 9%. Between 2000 and 2015 Nigeria achieved an average annual growth rate of 7%.

We were on the path but there were two events that caused us to derail; first was stopping the government from removing fuel subsidy in 2012 and then the 2015 elections.

If we had gotten these events right then we would have been on the path but alas. Anyway Nation building takes decades and centuries so there is no rush

Assuming the growth rates are accurate. And even discounting start points of growth GDP of $1x billion or $100x billion. Ask yourself the source of the growth. That can reveal if it’s a sustainable or non sustainable growth.

If Nigeria’s growth was mostly underpinned by oil & gas sales with little development of production capacity in goods and services through hrs of labor (physical and intellectual). Then that growth is fluke.

China’s growth is underpinned by human labor (physical & intellectual) on many fronts. I watched a video that says China is currently decades ahead of the Western world in producing many (not all) high tech stuff. That in the next 10 years Chinese car makers will overrun most global car makers…..China strategically developed key strengths in x y x. These are what underpins the 9% growth for China.

mikeapollo:
Do you really know what China has achieved with its over 1billion people?
We Nigerians just like to brag and boast sha!

Many don’t realize how much hardwork the Chinese have done over the decades and are still doing right now. A high proportion of their over 1 billion population work 12 hrs a day, six days a week! We are not used to such work intensity in Africa. Hence we have extremely poor infrastructure etc.

ppogba:
They did not pay Interim last year too .

It is easy to hide under the excuse of forbearance this time around.

Fidelity paid interim dividend in the last three years. This would have been the fourth interim.

Chai no dividend from Fidelity

KarlTom:
FIDELITY Q2

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45448_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2025.pdf

That means it may not be that bad for those having front row seats in Ellah

KarlTom:
The Punch article aptly called it reverse acquisition...

Streetinvestor2:
Those type are from 30 million up.How many do u see on the road if not government bought

You want very big car for free lol.
Even the Chinese making the cars are not driving big ones anyhow. You’ll need more than that for bigger EV’s. But they’ll still be like about 50% cheaper than comparable brand new petrol ones.

mikeapollo:
Really? You think the market is not bearish yet?

Not nice looking at valuations right now. Those that have JO will be smiling now.

Mpeace:
Pls stop passing info only on what you read, sometimes try taste the soup before telling how delicious it is.

Is there an EV vehicle with at least 4 passengers capacity that is worth less than 25million?

In a country where average power supply is less than 10hrs a day what business do we have with electric vehicles.

You talk about the sun. Lol. I also thought the sun was enough until I installed a solar system in my house. It is good but not what you think it is. Sometimes you have to put off almost everything in the house for the solar system to last through the night. Even when you expand the system, the sun is not just enough, you still rely on the grid or generator sometimes to charge it up.

Always ask yourself why all those developed countries with constant power supply still have the petrol and diesel vehicles dominating.
Why are they still interested in gas etc

For a country like Nigeria that is an oil producing country, and relies heavily on oil, we have no business promoting EVs more so that we don't have enough electricity to power the basics.
We better focus all that energy on growing our oil and gas sector.

I use solar for most of my electricity. The technology is still evolving and it requires more efficient use of electricity to get the best from it. You’ll need genuine inverter A/C’s that are 50 to 70% more efficient than common piston compressor A/C’s amongst many adjustments to get the best out of them. Also good lithium batteries etc.

China is already strategically moving ahead very fast in adopting EV’s through hard work. Africa may be laid back or may pickup. We even need to build simple roads etc first sef.

Streetinvestor2:
How much is the cheapest EV car u can drive from one region to another region in nigeria. I am not talking about those toys u can only really use in golf grand..Not something u see dangota truck on the road u move out of ur lane.
Then for senate being lead by akpabio. Dont take anything from thr serious any time natatsha is present on the floor. E get why. The final decision comes from a special part of the body...lol

The bill is sponsored by Senator Orji Kalu of Abia. The contents looks decent for Nigerian investors and workers not to get left out in the EV value chain. Google or ask AI bigger EV’s are being dished out by China.

chimex38:
EV supporters
https://guardian.ng/news/senate-moves-to-phase-out-petrol-cars-as-ev-scales-second-reading/

EV is the way to go. China is making it possible by making them affordable. In fact in the last 5 years Chinese EV related vehicles have taken serious market share from major car brands globally. There is enough power from the Sun to power EV’s in Nigeria. And harvesting/storing the energy is getting more and more affordable, thanks to China. All this makes me bearish on Aradel et al when thinking of medium to long term investments.

bovali:
Ellah real result:
https://ellahlakes.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Ellah-Lakes-12-Months-to-July-2025-Audited-Financial-Statements_Final_Executed_Compressed.pdf

Thanks for this clear copy.
Will we be getting a 3months at the end of this month to cover Aug/Sep/Oct or its till next year with an aligned report ending in Dec?

chimex38:
Also that legal restructuring proves more write-back is expected in the near future despite being fully provisioned like banks forbearance issue.

Make them come back quickly and close the chapter on negative shareholders' funds permanently before 2025 runs out.

UBA is here.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45366_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Initial glance is excellent. N4 final dividend for 2025 looking sure.

That's fast. Where did the money come from. Looks like it came back the way it went out. Nah wah.

Sunrisepebble:
With the release of this result

chimex38:
Yes.. Positive Retained earnings @142million

KarlTom:
"During the period, we made meaningful progress in integrating operations, strengthening security
and community relations, as well as resolving legacy issues inherited at the point of operatorship.
Most notably, we achieved a partial recovery of substantial receivables that had remained
outstanding for several years and made significant headway in renegotiating long-standing legal
matters that had previously been fully provisioned for. These milestones underscore the depth of our
leadership and our unwavering commitment to unlocking value...”

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45338_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC_-9M_2025_UNAUDITED_RESULTS_RELEASE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

This partial recovery is lovely.
Abeg more recoveries.
At this rate of recovery, there is hope for Oando getting into positive shareholders fund by Q4 or early next year.
There is also hope for cash dividend resumption next year.

chimex38:
MTN interim of 5!!
Someone predicted MTN to pay dividend this year..
I say na lie!!!
This is fantastic.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45363_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC-MTN_NIGERIA_INTERIM_DIVIDEND_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Are they out of negative shareholders funds. When did they come out.

mikeapollo:
They should sell shareholders compensation (redistributed shares) to which new investors again when there is already AGM approval to raise additional capital?
The AGM approved that the shares be redistributed to shareholders. If they want to sell to new investors, then there will be another AGM to authorize the sale and the price must be disclosed. And that will create more confusion.
Shareholders have invested and tied down their capital for long without dividends so they need something as compensation.

If new shares are issued to raise capital and reduce debt burden. The EPS will be lower than if the recovered shares tranches 3 to 6 were sold to a new investor. I will prefer higher EPS and higher share valuation than lower one. This arrangement can be brought to shareholders if new investors can be gotten at a good price like N100 to approve to dot the letters correctly.