₦airaland Forum

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awesomeJ:
Yes, I didn't read your post well.
@iskalamong helped my hastiness.

You're right about unrealized fx gains from 2024 becoming losses.

We'll see that in FY '25 results for those who have unrealized gains from 2024.

FCMB unaudited has N5b in comprehensive statement recorded clearly as a loss due to FX Translation and another 30b due to fair values (likely FX related if one looks through the notes. But with massive growth recorded in PAT in 2025 these loses are did not impact the comprehensive income growth that much. WEMA doubled growth in PAT and comprehensive income with no FX wahala.

awesomeJ:
Especially Access.

Was thinking of buy Access. If naira strengthens it may hit them more indeed.

unite4real:
CBN supposed to share in the forex loss since they shared in the gain last time

I think govt taxed only the realized gains. But gains not yet realized were not taxed. Realized gains means the Fx assets were already disposed. Hence no losses can occur with respect to them if naira strengthens.

awesomeJ:
For most companies, their fx exposures are net liabilities. So this strengthening will translate into gains. Although this won't materialize until end Q1.

Am I missing your point though?

What I see is every company that recorded FX gains in 2025 did so on naira strengthening, more strengthening thus only translates into more gains for them.

PZ for instance will might have to value their FX Obligations below 1350 next month. Another N70 gains for them.

I am talking about banks. Not manufacturing companies.

awesomeJ:
Finally:
Naira closed at 1396.99 today.

🎉🎉

Next we await strengthening below 1350.

This should make some already reported FX related gains in banking stocks comprehensive income turn into losses. Though the severity may be muted due to growing incomes.

ojeysky:
Yes I think you are correct. They may want to do either PO or PP at a higher price because the RI was oversubscribed and they returned back funds to me from my extra purchase during the RI which means they probably don't want to sell that low

Good to hear they returned excess bid for more rights

zendi:
The sign that it was not going well was when they extended the offer period.
Never mind they implied it was to give the whole world that was scrambling for it the opportunity to participate.

With this development the price will likely not go beyond the previous high for a while. And will likely not fall below the PO price. Perhaps a few deeps below if there are desperate exiters, but based on prior trends this bearish streak is currently weak.

zendi:
The main question to me is the situation now of the big acquisition that should have concluded by Dec end. Is there any kind of cooking that will help them seal a transaction they have no funding for?

My guess is a fluid situation where an agreement needs to be reached with the original sellers to buy back (hold) more of what they are selling. If so they will need to come to an agreement / arrangement of controls for this situation for right now and in the days and years ahead.

SonofElElyonRet:
When's the deadline for Ellah to announce results of their PO?

Relax, cooking ongoing. Share price still strong is a good positive signal. There is a high likelihood of good conclusion. Relax let them take their time. Monitor share price.

Agbalowomeri:
Omo dollar below 1400

Pound and Euro holding firm though

Steady between 1400 and 1500 you mean

iHaveMadeiT2:
That's the contradiction because it has resisted the sell mode of participants of the RI from when the price was below 3. Now price is approaching 5.

Correct observation.

Going forwards, If the results turnaround steadily towards growth, with dividends streaming as promised in the rights marketing, the price will continue to resist falling.

Agbalowomeri:
You no talk 1B sef
Na so most bidders go queue up at the upper bound price unlike the less liquid stocks. People will only buy now for dividend.
What do you think they will pay as final dividend? I think most will just repeat the same thing they paid for last year

First Bank needs to go up to at least N1. Preferably N2.5
UBA needs to go up to at least N2.5

BabsO2:
https://nairametrics.com/2026/01/08/kpmg-flags-gaps-warns-new-tax-laws-could-trigger-disputes-capital-flight/

Given Nigeria’s high inflation environment, the firm warned that this approach could result in substantial tax liabilities on asset disposals, even where real economic gains are minimal.

To mitigate this risk, the firm recommended the introduction of a cost indexation allowance as a quick policy win.
The proposed indexation would use the Consumer Price Index from acquisition to disposal dates, with December 31, 2025, as a baseline.

This adjustment, the firm noted, would not increase capital losses but would align tax obligations more closely with economic realities.

I like the way KPMG nailed the issues with CGT

https://nairametrics.com/2026/01/08/kpmg-flags-gaps-warns-new-tax-laws-could-trigger-disputes-capital-flight/

Further scrutiny falls on Sections 39 and 40, which calculate capital gains based on the difference between sales proceeds and the tax-written-down value of assets without considering inflation.

Given Nigeria’s high inflation environment, the firm warned that this approach could result in substantial tax liabilities on asset disposals, even where real economic gains are minimal.

“Consequently, any sale of assets after the effective date of the NTA will trigger a substantial exposure to income tax,” KPMG said.

To mitigate this risk, the firm recommended the introduction of a cost indexation allowance as a quick policy win.

The proposed indexation would use the Consumer Price Index from acquisition to disposal dates, with December 31, 2025, as a baseline.

This adjustment, the firm noted, would not increase capital losses but would align tax obligations more closely with economic realities.

orriyomi33:
Tried the link several times before now but there was no option of sign up.

Screen shot below is what is being displayed

Register to view your CSCS account here.
https://portal.cscs.ng/home/register
I think it is simple to register. It only costs about N5k every year to maintain access.
An alternative if one is not bothered about having access. One can always ask the broker to print the current statement from CSCS. Won't be surprised if some brokers charge a small fee like N500 for the stress. While it may be free for some.

mikeapollo:
That means you are heavily bullish on Oando

For us (like me &you) having sizeable Oando it reduced our index performance in 2025

My index moves when Oando moves

EDUECO:
60 to 70 percent of funds for capital projects is being embezzled in most states of Nigeria. In China ,99.9 percent of funds for capital projects is being utilized in all provinces or states of China. The major problem of Nigeria is the political class.

As you are saying, no doubt fantastic levels of theft is one of the reasons of increased collective poverty, as evidenced by cases and recoveries from govt officials.

I am saying, lack of need for a state or region to be productive, not having each state GDP contribution to national wealth creation recorded - this opaque system of what each state is doing to grow the economy, makes states and regions very unproductive, while their governments still get money from the feeding bottle arrangement to steal.

. . .

EDUECO:
How did China get to their current level.? It is through the efforts of the CCP. Can you say APC and PDP are like CCP?

China is made up of regions that compete in growth of their respective GDP’s. They do not operate a feeding bottle economy where money is collected by central government to be shared to regions like Nigeria share money to states from the centre. Each region struggles to make its money by producing things. That’s like each state in Nigeria actively working for the state to be attractive to people and businesses and making its money. And not waiting for money to be coming from a center even if the state is unproductive and contributing nothing to the prosperity of the Nation. That’s one of the reasons China got to its current level - internal regional competition at growing regional GDP’s through hard work.

orriyomi33:
Good evening.
I'm still awaiting mine, don't know if it's been credited to my CSCS account.

How do one access a CSCS account, I'm finding it difficult creating one.

It’s long I registered. Search online on their portal you should be able to find how to register so that you can login to see your stocks on your CHN accounts.

https://portal.cscs.ng/home/index

CHAMS rights has been credited for one of my accounts before end of December in CSCS. While for my other account it’s not yet in CSCS.

First Bank on the beat. Just 20kobo to catch UBA at N39.8.
With this surge in First Bank price it looks like a close above N40 this week and this year is likely.

emmanuelewumi:
CBN is the registrar of FGN bonds, the problem with payment is from CSCS. I have experienced that on 2 occasions, I wrote a mail to CSCS and I got paid.

It is more liquid if the bond is in custody of the bank, but I prefer mine in CSCS. By being in CSCS I have easily get the total valuations of my equities and bonds through CSCS online.

If they are with the bank, what happens if the bank goes under.

Yeah. Those are the pros and cons.

emmanuelewumi:
Bought in 2024 after booking profit and later did a portfolio rebalancing.

I actually bought 3 different bonds

From my past experience bonds held in cscs through IBTC stockbrokers, one can miss coupon payments once in a while. And one will then need to follow up with broker who then follows up on one’s behalf . Also on maturing one has to fill and submit a form to get money back. Selling is also not that liquid on cscs should one want to sell the bonds. One can wait for months. However bank holding the bonds spares one these wahala. Things moves faster and smoothly with bonds held by bank.

bolaayenimo:
If you have spare funds, position it in FCMB and Jaiz bank

I was thinking of selling FCMB. Okay will tarry.

emmanuelewumi:
A serious management would done that before coming up with a date for the offer. Investors don't like surprises, except a pleasant surprise

Let’s see how the drama plays out. Things will get clearer.

emmanuelewumi:
And they didn't buy the public offer, which warranted a 2 week extension
Hope you have bought the public offer?

More time may be needed for all the parties involved. Those selling in the ARPN vehicle, new stakeholder money bags and new ordinary public investors. More time may be needed to balance all this I guess.

emmanuelewumi:
Give me example of when we have a new core investor on NGX and the management was not sacked.

Hope you remember what Wale and his goons did when they bought 40% of Unipetrol which was previously owned by FGN.

You remember what Tony Elumelu and his goons did when he became the core investor of UBA after buying the shares of Hakeem Bello Osagie

Even if he is sacked. He’s got a ton of shares at N3 or thereabouts plus a substantial pay off that may be more generous than his expectations if he continued with the old Ellah.

Streetinvestor2:
Like seriously, if 20billion hit account for this PO.You guys will know say osun governor dey learn dance whr the ceo of kpakus dey...lol

My street sense told me to load last year and this year achieving a load price of less than 3.5. Took my money out plus some profit while still holding a large chunk when direction got too hazy. Now my street sense tells me to follow the money here. Even if I sell some more units right now, I can buy back cheaper through PO

emmanuelewumi:
A crafty person won't mind if he is overthrown. Immediately the offer is completed the money will be paid by the issuing house to the company, even before the allotment is made public.

If from the allotment, insiders see that the company now has a new core investor. Insiders can decide to lavish the fund and their will be nothing for the new core investor to work with.

Management who wants control of their business will not issues shares that are more than their current outstanding shares to the public.

With the current 3 billion outstanding shares of the company, they might offer about 2 billion to the public not 18 billion.

What management Ellah Lakes did with current public offer shows desperation or they don't care if another people become the new core investors and those new core investors will definitely sack Chuka and his team.

He doesn’t need to be sacked. He will get a fatter pay check. He already has more shares from past debt converted into shares. His hands will just be put off the cookie jar