₦airaland Forum

nosa2:
Between 1990 and 2010 China achieved an average annual growth rate of 9%. Between 2000 and 2015 Nigeria achieved an average annual growth rate of 7%.

We were on the path but there were two events that caused us to derail; first was stopping the government from removing fuel subsidy in 2012 and then the 2015 elections.

If we had gotten these events right then we would have been on the path but alas. Anyway Nation building takes decades and centuries so there is no rush

Assuming the growth rates are accurate. And even discounting start points of growth GDP of $1x billion or $100x billion. Ask yourself the source of the growth. That can reveal if it’s a sustainable or non sustainable growth.

If Nigeria’s growth was mostly underpinned by oil & gas sales with little development of production capacity in goods and services through hrs of labor (physical and intellectual). Then that growth is fluke.

China’s growth is underpinned by human labor (physical & intellectual) on many fronts. I watched a video that says China is currently decades ahead of the Western world in producing many (not all) high tech stuff. That in the next 10 years Chinese car makers will overrun most global car makers…..China strategically developed key strengths in x y x. These are what underpins the 9% growth for China.

mikeapollo:
Do you really know what China has achieved with its over 1billion people?
We Nigerians just like to brag and boast sha!

Many don’t realize how much hardwork the Chinese have done over the decades and are still doing right now. A high proportion of their over 1 billion population work 12 hrs a day, six days a week! We are not used to such work intensity in Africa. Hence we have extremely poor infrastructure etc.

ppogba:
They did not pay Interim last year too .

It is easy to hide under the excuse of forbearance this time around.

Fidelity paid interim dividend in the last three years. This would have been the fourth interim.

Chai no dividend from Fidelity

KarlTom:
FIDELITY Q2

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45448_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2025.pdf

That means it may not be that bad for those having front row seats in Ellah

KarlTom:
The Punch article aptly called it reverse acquisition...

Streetinvestor2:
Those type are from 30 million up.How many do u see on the road if not government bought

You want very big car for free lol.
Even the Chinese making the cars are not driving big ones anyhow. You’ll need more than that for bigger EV’s. But they’ll still be like about 50% cheaper than comparable brand new petrol ones.

mikeapollo:
Really? You think the market is not bearish yet?

Not nice looking at valuations right now. Those that have JO will be smiling now.

Mpeace:
Pls stop passing info only on what you read, sometimes try taste the soup before telling how delicious it is.

Is there an EV vehicle with at least 4 passengers capacity that is worth less than 25million?

In a country where average power supply is less than 10hrs a day what business do we have with electric vehicles.

You talk about the sun. Lol. I also thought the sun was enough until I installed a solar system in my house. It is good but not what you think it is. Sometimes you have to put off almost everything in the house for the solar system to last through the night. Even when you expand the system, the sun is not just enough, you still rely on the grid or generator sometimes to charge it up.

Always ask yourself why all those developed countries with constant power supply still have the petrol and diesel vehicles dominating.
Why are they still interested in gas etc

For a country like Nigeria that is an oil producing country, and relies heavily on oil, we have no business promoting EVs more so that we don't have enough electricity to power the basics.
We better focus all that energy on growing our oil and gas sector.

I use solar for most of my electricity. The technology is still evolving and it requires more efficient use of electricity to get the best from it. You’ll need genuine inverter A/C’s that are 50 to 70% more efficient than common piston compressor A/C’s amongst many adjustments to get the best out of them. Also good lithium batteries etc.

China is already strategically moving ahead very fast in adopting EV’s through hard work. Africa may be laid back or may pickup. We even need to build simple roads etc first sef.

Streetinvestor2:
How much is the cheapest EV car u can drive from one region to another region in nigeria. I am not talking about those toys u can only really use in golf grand..Not something u see dangota truck on the road u move out of ur lane.
Then for senate being lead by akpabio. Dont take anything from thr serious any time natatsha is present on the floor. E get why. The final decision comes from a special part of the body...lol

The bill is sponsored by Senator Orji Kalu of Abia. The contents looks decent for Nigerian investors and workers not to get left out in the EV value chain. Google or ask AI bigger EV’s are being dished out by China.

chimex38:
EV supporters
https://guardian.ng/news/senate-moves-to-phase-out-petrol-cars-as-ev-scales-second-reading/

EV is the way to go. China is making it possible by making them affordable. In fact in the last 5 years Chinese EV related vehicles have taken serious market share from major car brands globally. There is enough power from the Sun to power EV’s in Nigeria. And harvesting/storing the energy is getting more and more affordable, thanks to China. All this makes me bearish on Aradel et al when thinking of medium to long term investments.

bovali:
Ellah real result:
https://ellahlakes.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Ellah-Lakes-12-Months-to-July-2025-Audited-Financial-Statements_Final_Executed_Compressed.pdf

Thanks for this clear copy.
Will we be getting a 3months at the end of this month to cover Aug/Sep/Oct or its till next year with an aligned report ending in Dec?

chimex38:
Also that legal restructuring proves more write-back is expected in the near future despite being fully provisioned like banks forbearance issue.

Make them come back quickly and close the chapter on negative shareholders' funds permanently before 2025 runs out.

UBA is here.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45366_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Initial glance is excellent. N4 final dividend for 2025 looking sure.

That's fast. Where did the money come from. Looks like it came back the way it went out. Nah wah.

Sunrisepebble:
With the release of this result

chimex38:
Yes.. Positive Retained earnings @142million

KarlTom:
"During the period, we made meaningful progress in integrating operations, strengthening security
and community relations, as well as resolving legacy issues inherited at the point of operatorship.
Most notably, we achieved a partial recovery of substantial receivables that had remained
outstanding for several years and made significant headway in renegotiating long-standing legal
matters that had previously been fully provisioned for. These milestones underscore the depth of our
leadership and our unwavering commitment to unlocking value...”

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45338_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC_-9M_2025_UNAUDITED_RESULTS_RELEASE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

This partial recovery is lovely.
Abeg more recoveries.
At this rate of recovery, there is hope for Oando getting into positive shareholders fund by Q4 or early next year.
There is also hope for cash dividend resumption next year.

chimex38:
MTN interim of 5!!
Someone predicted MTN to pay dividend this year..
I say na lie!!!
This is fantastic.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45363_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC-MTN_NIGERIA_INTERIM_DIVIDEND_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Are they out of negative shareholders funds. When did they come out.

mikeapollo:
They should sell shareholders compensation (redistributed shares) to which new investors again when there is already AGM approval to raise additional capital?
The AGM approved that the shares be redistributed to shareholders. If they want to sell to new investors, then there will be another AGM to authorize the sale and the price must be disclosed. And that will create more confusion.
Shareholders have invested and tied down their capital for long without dividends so they need something as compensation.

If new shares are issued to raise capital and reduce debt burden. The EPS will be lower than if the recovered shares tranches 3 to 6 were sold to a new investor. I will prefer higher EPS and higher share valuation than lower one. This arrangement can be brought to shareholders if new investors can be gotten at a good price like N100 to approve to dot the letters correctly.

emmanuelewumi:
They are smart, they will start a gradual supply of the forex in their custody.

The most important thing is stability which we currently have.

Then a gradual appreciation of Naira, probably over a period of 2 to 4 years.

The most important thing is stability. Not going above N1500 again in the next 5 years will be good. Staying below N1500 in the next 10 years will be excellent. Dropping to N1000 looks unlikely but not impossible.

Payunsin:
My farm is in Ibadan in a year I sell over 2000 bags of litter. The buyers are mainly 99% from the north and this is the same way they buy From all my co farmers.
how can you believe a person that transport a trailer load of litter from Ibadan to the North is stupid.
Relax and learn opportunities remain in this country..
This litter you are talking about is a huge business, there is a place called Akindele in Ibadan, lots of people are making a living from it.

What I can infer here is, perhaps for drier climates poultry droppings are excellent for fertilizing some crops without the risk of causing fungi wahala that wetter climates are prone to. Those buying definitely see value. It will be great our university or knowledge systems capture what works best for each climatic area and local soils in the area amongst other variables.

mikeapollo:
I saw it shortly before the last AG but I could not attend.
He has virtually dribbled the investors. Probably partly why the AGM was held online
The original clause was something like to distribute the shares and/or their monetary value to shareholders.
I guess he is now interpreting the monetary value as ''some of''.

My fear is that they may decide to allow the new, incoming investors (after the capital raise) to take part in the share redistribution, thereby diluting the ration of the pre-existing shareholders.

It makes sense to not distribute tranche 3-6 but to sell it to a new investor and use the money to pay off debts and speedup business turnaround. I have always said this is the better option for current investors.

emmanuelewumi:
Initial plan was to list Dangote Refinery shares on London Stock Exchange, but now he thinks it make Investment sense to list on NGX.

Why?

Because he is betting on the fact that Naira is currently undervalued and N1000 to $1 is possible soon

If naira appreciates significantly then banks will record forex losses. Their share prices will then take a hair cut. Perhaps they would be able to reclaim some of the windfall tax they paid to mitigate losses.

With the way Aradel is jetting ahead, there should be hope for Oando . Renewed Hope that Oando will be lifted sooner or later as Mr Time pleases.

ositadima1:
Ok, I think batteries are the biggest challenge. Apart from the vehicles themselves, you don’t really need much infrastructure, especially in countries like Nigeria that don’t already have extensive systems in place. Many homes today run entirely on solar power. Yes, it’s expensive, but that cost mostly comes from the batteries. Imagine if batteries became dirt cheap, I’d bet that more than half of Nigeria would be powered by solar energy.

Currently, most EVs run about 300 to 400 miles on a single charge. With cheap and fast-charging batteries, your only limitation would be the number of solar panels you can connect. By my calculation, one full day of solar charging could give you over a week of city commuting. If you charge intermittently, you could practically drive for free. I’ve read about battery swap systems, like how we used to exchange gas cylinders, so you could travel from town A to B, swap your battery, and continue your journey.

Businesses that charge batteries with solar will spring up everywhere, trust our entrepreneurial spirit. I’m telling you, the only real issue is the cost and capacity of these batteries, and once those improve, we’re good to go.

Regarding Dangote Refinery, nobody sees it all, not even me or you. Technological shifts often happen suddenly and unpredictably. A few years ago, no one could have predicted AI would advance this far this fast. I’m not arguing to win; I’m just saying it’s very likely that when the technology breaks out, developing countries might actually be the ones to adopt it fastest. It all comes down to economics, people will always choose the cheaper alternative over patriotism or sentiment.

I see car parks like Marina being covered with solar panels very soon once a major entrepreneur gets the permit. Perhaps Oando Energy may get it.

Itzlinda:
You’re right that change is constant, but transition speed varies depending on infrastructure and global equity.

Unlike phone or AI that transition happen very fast, switching to EV cars require huge physical investment in infrastructure--power grids, roads raw material etc.

So if developed countries have such resources in abundance, developing countries are far behind and don't have capital to support EV infrastructure overnight. Nigeria is still producing less than 5000MW with incessant national grid collapse.
I don't think Petroleum cars will die. But the usage will shrink in developed countries while it lingers in developing countries for a very long time.

Alhaji would not have built 25bn refinery with that existential threat.

Agree with the bold summary.

mikeapollo:
Very true and apt.
But I dont see anything replacing aviation fuel in our lifetime.
Aircraft using batteries? Mbano! I no go board such plane lailai !

Perhaps Jet fuel may become a major refinery output for Dangote for several decades. Also oil companies like Oando, Seplat and Aradel, need to keep costs down to remain profitable under low oil prices.

ositadima1:
No, I don’t think so. Lithium isn’t the only viable substance for making batteries. We have sodium in abundance, and scientists are working to use it as a replacement for lithium, they’re not there yet, but they’re close. There are also other elements and technologies being developed that could serve the same purpose.

I don’t know how old you are, but let me give you a few historical examples. Kodak, in the 1980s and early 1990s, was what Samsung or Apple is today, a market leader in photography, especially in film. When digital photography was being researched and tested, Kodak dismissed it, believing it would never work. They ignored diversification and failed to invest in the new technology. Eventually, the Kodak empire was destroyed by digital cameras and the rise of digital images.

There are many other examples like that, Blockbuster vs. Netflix, Nokia/BlackBerry vs. Android. Even the small devices we hold in our hands today, which we call phones, were once unimaginable. Computers in the 1970s were so large that only institutions could afford them. Today, each of us carries a mobile computer. Change is constant.

I tend to bet global EV take up may be faster than expected with major disruptions occurring in five to ten years

This will keep crude oil and petrol prices down to reduce EV uptake pace.

Agbalowomeri:
At current price and with CBN's hawkish pose, how many of the banks will pay 10% dividend yield?

At current prices Access fit reach 10% dividend yield

Many banks will struggle to achieve 10% dividend yield at current prices. 10% is a high number o. But 7.5% is doable for many banks.

emmasoft:
With the way inflation numbers are going, expect lower rates everywhere across all fixed income-related investment windows, but DON'T STOP INVESTING, you can only change strategy, don't stop if you still want to win in this investment game

I think this could cause a reprice upwards of many stocks. It will be good to see a discussion of which stocks will reprice up and why. For example I think banks may reprice up for two reasons. Firstly their dividend yield could make them not too bad for income, secondly they have attractive low price earnings and the earnings will get less impairment costs as less businesses default in a lower interest regime thereby solidifying the PE’s and even dropping them further if prices don’t go up. Many companies under the load of high borrowing costs will breath small and get more oxygen to grow.

Raider76:
They are used to paying high taxes in their countries

Most likely if Nigeria no collect their home country go collect. Now if Nigeria collects they likely will not need to pay nadding for their home country. Indeed it may not bother them.

megawealth01:
UBA analysis seems to be topping today's discussion from what I've read so far from intelligent contributors here

If you no chop good dividend abeg manage price appreciation. UBA moved from sub 6 to its current price. Tony na man you be joor

In the issued report it can be seen how he lifted a FAT chunk of rights. TOE and key directors have put their strength into raising the value of UBA shares. That's good enough signal for value investors.

ositadima1:
Zenith paid ₦1 last year, so that’s about a 25% increase. It should slowly push past ₦70, and possibly ₦100 (which is my fair value).

If Zenith has a fair value of N100, then UBA fair value must pass N75.

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote sells to West African countries at N56 discount?

Is that part of the deal to add additional N56 to what local consumers will pay

And this N56 will be shared among some stakeholders.


Just musing

The exports may be priced on the reduced marginal cost to produce more products after a production level is attained.

After X units are produced the increased marginal cost of producing dx for export is lower. Hence exported goods can be sold at a lower price. This makes exports more competitive and creates little hiccups if export ceases for whatever reason for the producing company ops. Everything need not be a conspiracy.