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BabsO2's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:39pm On Jun 25, 2025
opaclem:
Succinct

Oando H1 result will definitely be massive considering the resumption of the operations on those pipelines and some workover activities on NAOC assets.
Renaissance already indicated 40% increment on production on SPDC asset they acquired. I want to believe Oando will have more if they are transparent enough. I personally work on some of those fields.
Give or Take, Oando will definitely repeat last year rally in near future.
They may surprise the market by releasing H1 next month or early August latest. Will be good to see increased production, good cash flow and sustained profits.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:15pm On Jun 25, 2025
Omooloriredade:
The "major pipeline vandalism they were battling in Q1" reported by yourself a while back, is obvious in this result. smiley

If they have now been able to achieve 34kboe which was their 2024 exit production rate in Q2, then Q2 should be much better. I assume pipelines have now been fixed. In fact, I expect 34kboe should be a base rate not target.

I could be totally wrong with this one but I'm inclined to think the tax credit might be related to reimbursement of JV infrastructure repair costs. huh huh Industry upstream GM is about 50% if I'm not mistaken so reporting a loss is very unusual.
This makes the tax credit meaningful if so.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:28pm On Jun 24, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Talking about dragging. A company expected to make a profit after tax of N200 billion in 2025 having 1 billion outstanding shares can drag another company in the sector that is not sure of making a profit after tax of N1 billion yet having out 5 billion outstanding shares with plans to cover more debts to equity
That still doesn’t make Ellah comparable to Afroil. Yes it is smaller than Oga PRESCO and it just resumed cash flow from redoil. That’s why it sells at a highly discounted PB comparatively.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:05pm On Jun 24, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Similar factor dragged Afroil from less than N1 to about N100 because other stocks in the petroleum marketing products sold for N100 and above.

Unfortunately Afroil is dead, speculators got trapped and yet to recover their funds 17 years after
Haba. Ellah is not like Afroil. It will be clear when the 3T mill starts operating. Then with more numbers released in financial statements FA analysts can do better comparisons.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:58pm On Jun 24, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
I am waiting to see the revaluation from the biological garden too.
What yr do you think they can hit 1 billion revenue from 68 millions presently. I dey ask for my friend
Till more numbers are made available, with the 3T mill up and running, tell your friend such calculations may not be worth it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:32pm On Jun 24, 2025
mikeapollo:
What would be the benefit or reward to the shareholders who had not received dividend for several years? Remember those shares actually belong to the shareholders, as owners of any residual rights/value in the firm, in the real sense.
In my view, it is better to first reward shareholders who had sacrificed for the company, before making moves to offer new shares to new investors or the public. That also serves as indication or evidence that the company is serious about rewarding its shareholders when opportunity arises.
In other words, you are saying management is confident in improved cash flow and wants to reward its loyal shareholders first before any attempted attempt to board new shares through PO or PP. Okay, make them release Q1 and Q2.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:10pm On Jun 24, 2025
ojeysky:
Looks like the 3ton to 3x gains from Ellah is going to materialise before 3ton even become operational grin
They will come together. Once that happens revaluation of biological assets and rising cash flow will be the new fuel.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:02pm On Jun 24, 2025
mikeapollo:
That Prophetutuocha should not be taken for granted when it is about Oando.
He seems to know a lot about Oando in particular.
I suspect this latest hint may be connected to the plan to raise more funds via private or public offer, debt or a combination. I may be wrong, though.
Not a buy or sell advice.
DYOR
If OANDO needs to raise funds via PP or PO is it not better to sell the shares that they intend to distribute instead.? If distribution continues it implies forget PP or PO.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:49pm On Jun 18, 2025
chimex38:
@Sunrisepebble is perhaps right. It's been on the RENCAP news on nairametrics..
Someone even posted the link on this thread few days ago. About $910million in one nairametrics link and another $1.6bn in another.
https://nairametrics.com/2025/06/16/cbn-forbearance-new-rencap-report-names-banks-facing-dividend-suspension-till-2028/
Perhaps some of the news are just junks from the analysts. Zenith has booked the heaviest loan loss impairments over the last three years of N1.2 Trillion.
2022 N123 b
2023 N410 b
2024 N659 b

I will believe what Zenith says that in less than 2 weeks it ain't got any issue that will hold back Interim dividend payment come September 2025

I thought the Zenith impairments were crazy before the CBN circular. Now it doesn't look that crazy again.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:34pm On Jun 18, 2025
ojeysky:
Ellah closed green with over 100m worth transacted, small money but considering their previous daily volume its a signal that one man's food is another man's poison. We go again tomorrow. This 3ton mill must do 3x returns at the minimum before end of the year grin
Ellah 3x returns will really be befitting for commissioning of the 3ton mill this month grin grin grin N9+ comes shocked shocked shocked

Not Financial Advice (NFA)
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:59am On Jun 17, 2025
nosa2:
you see Ellah doing 10x in 10 years?? I see it doing 10x in 10 months
Just being extremely conservative.
.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:48pm On Jun 16, 2025
SonofElElyonRet:
Young shall grow

................................................
As long as ELLAH mgt do a good job taking off into growth it’s good. In successful ventures the growth phase returns profit that multiplies money like x10 in a shorter period than more mature businesses. New ventures also carry risk of failure. But if there is no failure money multiples like x10 in less than a decade.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:23am On Jun 13, 2025
toyeoye:
The bell just rang! 🎯
Early movers on the pitch:
🟢 Oando leads with a 6.18% sprint
🔴 AbbeyBDS takes a tumble at -9.91%
Action is heating up...who’s holding strong, who’s slipping?

📊 Catch it all live on StockBubbles.
Ellah taking the lead right now with 9.64% climbing to a price of N4.32, can it powered with redoil maintain the lead. Oando now dropped to 4th position at this snap shot.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:24pm On Jun 08, 2025
PharoahIII:
I'm confused on whether to go with oando, but even I know thats a big gamble, hopefully it falls very quickly and very steeply too, and perhaps that would be the best time to buy. But something tells me oando will hit 350 in 5 years
It may even hit it in 2 years. The probability will be clearer as early as the release of 2025 Q1 or Q2. 2025 Q1 is even due.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:15pm On Jun 02, 2025
KarlTom:
UPDATE!
TOEWay cool
Direct: 1,462,796,256 units cool

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/175_Notification_Of_Share_Dealing_By_Insider_-_Tony_Elumelu,_CFR.pdf
This looks like an arranged buy off from a big fund exiting. Nevertheless it’s good to see TOE picking it up and supporting UBA stock price. Consistent steadily growing dividend is the best way forward.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:57am On May 30, 2025
Mpeace:
Lol. He wants hold UBA firmly. He might drive the price up in the near future
At the last AGM he was emphatic that UBA is undervalued by the market. And that UBA will only do rights to complete the mandated CBN capital raise to ensure shareholders and not outsiders get value for their investments. In the same AGM Shareholders were emphatic on sustained good dividends.

Let him continue with good results and sustained good dividends and the market will naturally drive the price up.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:57am On May 29, 2025
Omooloriredade:
Not explicitly stated in the report but take a listen to below interview conducted after Jan qtr result.

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6369844572112/ellah-lakes-ceo-dissects-31bn-debt-to-equity-conversion-/

The revenue will continue to grow exponentially for the rest of the year. We are not talking about P/L or dividend yet o so best to stay clear if that is what you are after. Management should be grilled about the Oil mill commissioning. What is going on gan gan? cheesy
A key summary:
Ellah Lakes converted 3.1 billion naira debt to equity, leading to the listing of 1.1 billion additional shares on the Nigerian Exchange

This translates to N2.82 per share for the conversion. This is likely part of the shares sold between end of January till date at an average price of N3.2 in the market.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:36pm On May 27, 2025
Mpeace:
Ella no go get much changes in the report. They need to only announce start of production to record movement
Make them announce start so that it can close at N7 before June ending. It’s time for it leave N3 range for good.

Disclaimer: Pure speculation.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:43pm On May 27, 2025
Waiting for Oando and Ellah’s reports.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:21pm On May 24, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
On Oando, for those invested in it, I don't see much hope in the business. I've spoken extensively to an employee, and the company’s strategy isn’t to show accounting profit — their main aim is to recover their capital and minimize the tax paid, so they’re perfectly fine declaring losses and they have a team of tax specialists dedicated to that. Last year’s profit was driven by the FX gains they declared in Q1, otherwise it would have been the losses as usual.
Could be wrong but I dont see that changing this year
It should be clearer this year what’s up.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:20pm On May 24, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
It didn't just collapse in a day. The price had been on the decline for three years
Some price declines are the final descent but not all declines are final.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:00pm On May 23, 2025
grin
thebargainhunte:
How did you get to know you were the first to be paid? I got mine and it was written like this "Des:NFT CHAMP BREW/CHAMP BREW DIV 1" grin cheesy grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 4:45pm On May 22, 2025
.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:47pm On May 21, 2025
vacanci:
LAFARGE (WAPCO) dividend hs not landed yet..I hope am not alone here
Checked. Not yet in bank. This one really delay. Previous one was pretty fast,
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:01am On May 21, 2025
GeeKudi:
Didn't get my WAPCO dividend yesterday! First time experiencing a delay in dividend payment. Anyone knows if there is something I should do?
Surprised to see my WAPCO div didn't land even till this morning. But the previous one of a month ago landed promptly. I am suspecting the registrars and companies paying dividends sometimes do not have the complete money, so they pay in batches with funds at hand over 1 to 2 days or more sef.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:21am On May 20, 2025
In less than 20mins of market open about N300 million is changing hands as some investors rush for a panic sale. The strong Fidelity bulls are wrestling the bears unleashed by the People Gazette publication.

KarlTom:
It was definitely a paid publication with an ulterior motive.
I believe that after the dust settles, they will demand an apology...
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:09am On May 20, 2025
ndept:
The most important extract to note from the publication:

"However, having exhausted the appeal process, the Bank is willing to settle the obligation. Unfortunately, there
are significant ambiguities in the judgment resulting in difficulties in calculating the actual financial liability to the
G.Cappa and the Bank which is about N14billion from our computation based on the exchange rate as of 2005
when the incident and cause of action arose
. Meanwhile the Supreme Court in the case of Anibaba v Dana Airlines
Limited delivered in January 2025 has clarified that foreign currency judgment debt must be converted to Naira
at the exchange rate obtainable at the date of judgment of the trial Court which in this case was 30 January 2018.
Even if the 2018 exchange rate supported by the Supreme Court is applied, the judgment debt will just be under
N30.7 billion
payable by G.Cappa Plc (who delayed delivery of possession of the apartments from 2005 till June
2018 when possession was eventually delivered) with contribution from the Bank.

Consequently, the Bank has applied to the Court for a clarification and inquiry into the proper interpretation of the
judgment and the computation of the actual quantum properly and lawfully payable by G.Cappa and the Bank
".
There is a huge difference between N225b and N31b (or N14b). How did the People Gazette come up with N225b and the bank has a max of N31b being at stake.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:17am On May 14, 2025
Amaa2019:
Good evening investors and traders, pls those that participated in last year’s right issue and public offers of bank through ngx invest website, have you been credited/allotted your shares?

Kindly assist with a response
Yes credited For Fidelity and FBNH that I used it for. NGX Invest works.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:44pm On May 13, 2025
nosa2:
My brother the situation with Ellah is different oh. Right now I am believing the numbers, and if they are true I am optimistic. However, that if is a VERY BIG IF.

Once we have confirmed the plantation...... my brother this stock will give MASSIVE returns
Somehow, I believe they have a lot of assets in Farmlands, even as far as Ghana. My area of IF is do they have the kind of competent management that will deliver value to shareholders or will mess things up with all kinds of stories. Having potential and delivering value of the potential to shareholders are two different things. For example, First Bank had a lot of potential. I think you chased First Bank at a time. But see how management have delivered poorly relative to the huge potential they had two decades ago.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
Oando gained full 10% in first hour of trading and approaching full bid right now. now Full bid with N126m changing hands.

Update:
Offers coming and are being mopped. Looks like a fat cat (or market maker) is accumulating right now. Let's see how many million units would change hands.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:46am On May 13, 2025
PETERiCHY:
Back in 2009 I bought NEM @ circa 35kobo based on NOSA recommendations and later sold @ circa #1:00k in 2010, Today it's selling @ circa #15.

The question now is those rushing into ELAH LAKES are they ready to wait for 15ys in other to get the full benefits huh
Now you are making me more bullish on Ellah.
I recall Nosa was bullish on NEM years back.
In 2009 the lowest NEM went for was 50kobo. (Don't know if they have had a stock split or reconstruction since then) Right now NEM is N15.
That is 30 bagger. That was an excellent pick in hindsight based on market price today.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:42pm On May 12, 2025
DeRuggedProf:
A lake will soon become a lagoon..
grin
Man, know thyself. Know thy temperament. Know thy waiting time. Don't go to prison to bail someone and end up serving his remaining prison term... grin
Freedom is non negotiable... grin
Nah so some release some from Transcorp prison at N1.0 and Oando at Nx, when prison release date was within a year. grin

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