₦airaland Forum

DRANOEL:
@bashr4

my guy update yourself! as of typing this benue has gone massively acn,the governor has no strenght behind him

i didnt type it i got it from NIGERIAN EAGLE just as we are discussing it here , hate it or love thats just the way it works , tribalism and religion plus incubency plays a big role and as of now oppositions dont have what it takes to pull pdp down the much they have they have already divided it among themselves. am not a GEJ fan am just stating the obvious here.

lease be advised that the contents of this note represent my personal perspective based on my own analysis ahead of the 2011 elections. It is not being presented as fact or absolute truth, and as a consequence, I am expecting an intellectual discussion from people that disagree with me, and "NOT" an attempt to discredit or malign me, because I am only presenting my perspective.

The 2011 Presidential contest in Nigeria will be held on April 9th 2011, across the 36 States of the Federation and the Federal capital Territory. The major contenders include incumbent President Dr. Goodluck Jonathan representing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd.) representing the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and former anti-corruption czar Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (Rtd.) representing the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN.) It is not my intent to disrespect other Presidential aspirants (Shekarau, Utomi, Momodu, etc,) but it is my opinion that they really do not stand any chance of winning these 2011 Presidential elections.

It is my personal projection that barring any disaster of a catastrophic magnitude for the Jonathan campaign, come May 29th 2011, it is very likely that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan will be sworn in as the President and Commander in Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces.That is a bold position to take given the fact that two of the three candidates (Buhari and Jonathan) could potentially win the election. The likely scenario is that there will be a runoff election, but even in the event of a runoff, it is more likely that President Jonathan will win the election.

This prediction is based on a careful analysis of the political dynamics leading up to the election, and I will make a detailed analysis of how I came to this conclusion. The major factors I have considered in drawing this conclusion are:

The incumbency factor
The PDP structure
Disorganized opposition
Typical politics

The Incumbency factor:

It is common knowledge that no incumbent Nigerian President, or a Presidential candidate backed by an incumbent President or Head of State has lost a Presidential election in Nigeria. In 1979, 1993, and 1999, candidates representing the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively with the backing of the military establishment at the time won the Presidential elections. In 1983 and 2003, incumbent President's Shagari and Obasanjo won the Presidential elections respectively. In 2007, the PDP candidate backed by an incumbent PDP President was sworn in as President following disputed elections. History has shown that an incumbent President is very difficult to defeat in Nigerian politics. Incumbency brings a lot of money, power and leverage to the table. These along with loyalty from political associates create conditions that allow incumbent President’s and their protégé’s win elections in Nigeria. In 2011, President Jonathan has an enormous financial war chest; a lot of political power owing to the fact that he is the sitting President who has the state’s political apparatus at his disposal; and a lot of leverage because the Presidential elections come before the Gubernatorial elections, and a lot of the Governors will be under pressure to use their political structures to deliver their states to the President, or risk losing their own elections 7 days later. The power of incumbency was a big factor in the PDP primaries, and it is likely to play a big role in the General elections.

The PDP structure:

The PDP is the only party in Nigeria with a “true” national spread. The PDP party structure by my projections will deliver the following number of votes to the President:

North East: The party structure along with the machineries of the four PDP Governors will deliver approximately 2 million votes for the President out of the available 8 million voters.

North West: The party structure along with the machineries of the six PDP Governors will deliver approximately 3 million votes for the President out of the available 18 million voters.

North Central: The party structure along with the machineries of the six PDP Governors will deliver approximately 3 million votes for the President out of the available 8 million voters. The President will make significant gains in Taraba and Benue States, and I anticipate that he will perform better than expected in the Plateau State.

South East: The party structure along with the machineries of the four PDP Governors and the APGA Governor in Anambra State, will deliver approximately 6.8 million votes for the President out of the available 7 million voters.

South South: The President will sweep approximately 8 million out of the available 8 million votes in this region.

South West: This is the most important region. I will make the bold prediction that President Jonathan will win approximately 7 million votes in the South West.

***The numbers of potential voters have been adapted from the provisional INEC numbers as reported on:

http://www.elombah.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5370%3Athis-inec-fraud-against-ndigbo-should-be-challenged&catid=49%3Ahardtalk&Itemid=75

I have projected approximately 8 million votes or approximately 23.5% of the votes in the North for the President because of the Northern Christian vote, and the Southern population in the North that will vote for the President. This number is closer to 35% of the total voting population in the North, but I am projecting 23.5% because of the concentration of these voters in specific states. Kaduna, Taraba, Nassarawa, Benue, Kogi and Kwara states will deliver a “surprising” number of votes to the President in my opinion.

I have also projected approximately 7 million votes or (46.7%) for the President in the South West because of reasons I cannot disclose in public, but suffice it to say that I am predicting that we will see something very close to the 2003 Presidential elections in the South West.

With 30 million votes or approximately 46.87% of the total votes for President Jonathan, 26 million votes or approximately 40.62% of the total votes for General Buhari, and 8 million votes or approximately 12.5% of the total votes for Mallam Ribadu, even in the event of a runoff, President Jonathan will still have enough votes to win.

One caveat to this projection is the potential surprise coming out of the South West as we approach the election.

Ultimately, I am projecting that the PDP party structure will be able to deliver enough votes to the President, which will get him elected.

Disorganized Opposition:

The opposition parties in Nigeria wasted a four-year window in my opinion, during which they could have organized better, and presented a strong challenge to the PDP in the 2011 elections. The failure of the ACN/CPC alliance to materialize, basically handed the PDP victory.

The Buhari/Tinubu ticket is one I always go back to because I strongly believe that such a ticket would have won the election in 2011. The argument that a muslim/muslim ticket will not win an election in Nigeria is invalid because it has happened before in Nigeria, and politics is a game of numbers. Potential voters in the North who would have voted for Buhari in any case, would have no problems voting for a muslim/muslim ticket. Potential voters in the South West who would have voted massively for Tinubu would not have a problem voting for a muslim/muslim ticket, as long as Tinubu was on the ticket. It is my projection that this ticket would have won approximately 54% of the total votes cast in 2011. I still maintain that on pure political strategy, this was a mistake by the opposition.

The President has been campaigning across the country, while the opposition have failed to match his campaign machinery. Some candidates have not even visited the South East and South South in the last few months. That is not a recipe for success even in a free and fair election.

Typical Politics:

One of the strategies that will come into play in 2011 is the issue of voting materials. Extended voting in some areas, short voting in some areas, insufficient voting materials in some areas, malpractice and logistical nightmares are some of the strategies that will be employed in this election in my opinion. The party that is able to maximize their gains using these strategies will position themselves better for victory.

Ultimately, with the incumbency factor, PDP structure, disorganized opposition and the ability to engage in typical politics, it is my projection that the PDP will produce the next President of Nigeria, and because of that, I am already moving on to 2015, because I don’t think there is anything anyone can do about 2011. If I am wrong, then I will laugh and move on. After all, analysts and strategists like me live to project the next election, even when we are wrong on the previous one.

Politics is a game of numbers. Follow the numbers, and you will find the winner.

Disclaimer: This is my personal projection based on my own analysis, and I have received absolutely "NO" help or support from any political party, or individuals associated with any of the campaigns.

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from nigerian eagle

i think we should just focus on electing good governors , really thats all we need after all SE and SS have survived 40 years without providing head of state . its all over by the time riggin will be added na only 100 votes oppositions go get.

alj harem:
How did you arrived that the figures that 45% in ss are igbos

even rivers state are igbos upto 45%

awka ibom n ko 45% igbo

edo 45% igbo

cross river 45% igbo

balysea 45% igbo as well

ondo 45% igbo

you have to know what you are talking about,.,.,.,. igbos are not even up to 20 or 10% in SS

why do you keep making up number

i know you couldnt resist this , now good bye cus your waste of internet space,

back to topic so there no hope to bring down this evil called PDP, chai , we are finished, i think revolution is the next option

fstranger3:
^^^

Yeah, Igbos make up 99% of SW too

Yeah, the census thing was fraud and everyone is against the Igbos

What else do you have

Please, dont waste your time voting, it wont count.

MY FRIEND SHUT UP DID I MENTION SW AM TELLING YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF SS DONT YOU KNOW GEOGRAPHY POPULATION OF PH ALONE IS MORE THAN 6 MILLION AND THEY ARE ALL IGBO AND IJAWS AND AM TALKING OF INDIEGENS OF THE STATE OR SHOULD I TELL YOU THE MAKE UP OF DELTA

LET ME SEE HOW IT GOES SPLITING SW BETWEEN BAKARE AND TEDU OR WHATEVER AND LEAVIN THE WHOLE SE AND SS FOR GEJ.

Kobojunkie:
^^^  

Are you certain your riposte there was meant for my post?

my brother sorry its for that annoying fly f stranger .

thIs is now between gej and buhari the best acn can do now is to merge votes with buhari to pull down pdp

Kobojunkie:
Can we please not give up yet? We still have at least a month to go before the final day. Granted the opposition may have failed us yet again, but I don't believe we can at least try to push to last minute, on either side before we give up. lol

MY FRIEND SHUT UP DID I MENTION SW AM TELLING YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF SS DONT YOU KNOW GEOGRAPHY POPULATION OF PH ALONE IS MORE THAN 6 MILLION AND THEY ARE ALL IGBO AND IJAWS AND AM TALKING OF INDIEGENS OF THE STATE OR SHOULD I TELL YOU THE MAKE UP OF DELTA

LET ME SEE HOW IT GOES SPLITING SW BETWEEN BAKARE AND TEDU OR WHATEVER AND LEAVIN THE WHOLE SE AND SS FOR GEJ.

e voters in diaspora you can debate it as long as you want but its all over , we just dashed GEJ another free 4 years, that gtb guy is -1, ribadu might as well not campaigne with a vp, rubbish tommorrow we will scream that pdp rigged but see the decisions we have made , its only a SS or SE person that can split johnattan vote there, MIND YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF THE ENTIRE SOUTH SOUTH (RIVERS AND DELTA )ADDED TO 99 PERCENT OF SOUTH EAST.

OBJ AND GEJ GO DEY LAFF US

seanet02:
i am very happy they did not choose an eastern guy, the south west is for ACN, the north is between Ribadu and buhari, GEJ gets south east and south south,middle belt between Ribadu, GEJ and buhari. Since APGA has already endorsed GEJ and knowing our ibo brothers to always be in support of Any Government In Power, it makes no sense to pick an ibo dude since he is not going to add to the votes. Ribadu wins this no qualms

yeah rite SW is already split between buhari and ribadu leaving the whole SE SS to GEJ i dey laff oo , i dont like GEJ but this is a cheap win for him they dont even need to rig in order to win , go and tell an ordinary onitsha ,bayelsa, delta, crossrivers,or even edo man on the street to vote for an hausa/yoruba when there own person is vying for the same post. it just dont work that way as these are the people that make up 80% of voters

Kobojunkie:
Can we please stop making these false statements of those we are unwilling to openly view as they really are? Historically, figures do not show the statement in bold to be the case, so what is your conclusion based on?

@Poster, has he finally made up his mind on this one? Or are we going to get news next week of how it is a different person?

am not talking about people like you that have access to internet , lets take it to the streets SE and SS votes are goin to GEJ the whole north will be divided with GEJ and BUHARItaking the majority votes there , thats just the sad truth.

ribadu would have joined with a SS or SE person (like pat utomi or okonjo iweala) that would have split GEJ votes in the SE SS then woiuth the acn and tinubu influence gain them more supporters from the west while sweeping the remaing of wats left from northern votes.

i still maintain in a tribalist country like nigeria zoning should really be adopted by all parties

fstranger3:
Once again, Ndigbo have lost, just as how they lost their stupidd war.


Ndigbo is the most inconsequential major ethnic group in Nigeria


With this latest move, it does seem that WaZoBia is really[b] WaZoVare[/b]

with foolish statements like this what makes you think a SE or SS person will vote for ACN even if they put jesus christ and john the baptist as their candidates , you need to grow up and shut up as we see the effect of the years you have ruled nigeria, crime no electricity, bad roads ,its something you sholdnt be proud of instead your worried about people that are better off than you .

dont think ribadu will not gain any vote from south south and south east , i like ribad but he will loose out in this race, the SS,SE,and NC,NE ,NW will neva vote any party with a yoruba man thats just the sad truth people are sensitive with these issues of which tribe is next , i see GEJ winning even withou rigging because he is goin to sweep SS and SE vote along with majority of nothern votes with his new deal with ciroma, ibb and the rest nothern shakers , its just the sad truth. tirbalism is very strong in nigeria i really think parties should consider the zonning arrangements.

ILEKE-IDI ARE U NOT ASHAMED YOUR CLAIMING YORUBAS ARE PEACEFULL YET YOU SAY IGBO ARE KILLED BY YORUBA PEOPLE IN EKITI , YOUR CONTRADICTING YOURSELF. AND IF THAT IS TRUE ITS EVEN MORE SHAMFUL AS WE WOULD NEVER TOUCH AN OUTSIDER, AND PLS SAVE US THAT KIDNAPPING TRASH WE DONT EVEN HAVE THIRD POSITION WHENM IT COMES TO KIDNAPPING. STOP MAKING A FOOL OF YOURSELF ON NAIRALAND

FIRST OF ALL IJAWS DID NOT SIEZE IGBOS PROPERTY IN PH (WHO BORN THEM) IT WAS THE MILITARY GOVT AND SOMEOTHER IKWERRE IGBOS AND THE PROPERTIES HAVE BEEN RETURNED

SECONDLY IJAWS HAVE NEVER DARED TO ATTACK IGBOS IN ANY WAY OR ANY FOR EXCEPT YOUR REFERING TO BIAFRAN WAR WHERE SOME IJAWS ALONGSIDE OTHER NIGERIAN TRIBES AS THE NIGERIAN ARMY WITH THEIR COUNTERPART EYPTIAN AIRFORCE FOUGHT AGAINST THE IGBOS

THIRDLY NO TRIBE HAVE EVER VENTURED INTO IGBO LAND TO TRY SUCH NONSENSE

FOURTHLY , I DONT SEE WHERE IGBOS COME INTO THIS THREAD AS WE DIDN NOT OR HAVE NEVER VENTURED INTO ANOTHER MANS LAND TO KILL AND KIDNAP THEIR KING

I KNOW THIS IS A PAINFUL NEWS FOR ILEKE -IDI BUT SHE SHOULD NOT INVOLVE US INTO THIS.

AND PLS 90 PERCENT OF IGBO POPULATION LIVE IN IGBO LAND I DONT KNOW WHO STARTED THIS PROPAGANDA THAT WE LIVE OUTSIDE IGBO LAND JUST BECAUSE WE BUY PROPERTIES OUTSIDE IGBO LAND AS WELL AS IN OTHER COUNTRIES

whether the yorubas support thsi movt or not na them know cus we are already gaining , we use assimilation too as our most deadly weapon see what we did to them , ijebu-ode(ijebuodera) ijebu-igbo ,ijebuora they didnt see that comin  

we are already bulldozing ijaws into the atlantic ocean cus we know its a yoruba trick to revenge for their lands we took theirs now tehy claimed to be a diffrent tribe and landlock us ,never gov amaechi will fight this war for us.

as for edo people we have use propaganda to consume iganke land benin is next


i love bieng part of  the majority tribe

alj harem:
you no well at all

remember say kanuri still dey there, tiv etc

also fulani/ hausa/ kanuri still dey niger and chad way fit come do war ooooo

which kin kanuri and tiv, all we have to do is line up igbos from cross river horizontally to agbor/ogwashiukwu then line up yoruba from that point (assumin they don consume urobo and itshekiri people by then)all the way to boundry of benin then stampede our way up to the north make i see whjo go block over 90 million people stampede

yorubas are encroachin into the east but they are late wev already grabbed half of lagos and 3/4 of abuja plus rivers and 1/4 of delta, if not of religious crises i swear we for don own north by now .mscheeew

yorubas its too late theres no free land again in the south u will have to join the hursle in the north now its still open for grabs. we can use catlle/religious magomago to exterminate the fulanis the hausa will be a walk in the park

GOODLUCK JOHNATAN WAS NOT STUTTERING WHEN HE SAID ANAMBRAINS ARE THE BRAINBOX OF NIGERIA,

I DONT KNOW ABOUT CALLING THE SW RASCALS(VIVA OBJ ,TINUBU)

MORE NAMES FROM OMAMBALA

USHER RAYMOND (WE USED TO CALL HIM UCHE RAMONU OR UCHMAN, THE USHER IS DUE TO ONITSHA PRONOUNCIATION OF CH TO SH)

SEAN CARTER (IJOMA AKARAKA)

NICKI MINAJ (ONIKACHI OR ONYEKACHI NNEMNAJI)

MICHAEL JORDAN ( CHUKWUMA JUDANI)

TIGER WOODS (NWAGU OSISI, HE JUST CHANGED THE MEANING TO ENGLISH)

ETC ETC

where all the yoruba /ijaw people , ijaw people don blow una nyansh lol no wonder obasanjo included ondo to niger delta state

Andre Uweh:
Why can't Ijaws come out from the creeks and canoes to defend themselves here.
Does it mean that they are too scared of the Yorubas?.

na only igbo people dey go get mouth talk to because they know we see them as brothers and will never attack them , but once they see hausa and yoruba people their strenght go disappear. i wonder why this issue is not popular like the ph issue

thank God the truth about these ijaws is spilling out , for soo long they have been tryin to claim ph when we igbo know ijaw part of ph is the swamps and we are not landlocked , thats why amaechi is buldozing them back into the atlantic ocean where they belong,

their best tactics is to make sure ikwerres do not accept beign igbo so that ijaw population in rivers will out number ikwerre population(which is less than 200000)(the northern rivers igbo like ndoni ,elele etc are the majority more than 3 million in number but they cant claim phc as igbo if ikwerre stop beign igbo) they can now take now slowly take over ikwerre land and begin changin the igbo/ikwerre names like how they did during the military regime after the war changin places like umu-ola(children of ola ) to rumuoula which has no meaning but sound ijawish , also umu-ibekwe to rumuibekwe - umu-omasiri to rumoumasi, the list goes on and on. na ikwerre people i pity shaa those warlike ijaws will deal with them once we stop claiming them to be igbos

i dey laugh shaa at least the yorubas will for the first time understand what we have been going through with these people

STILL ON ANAMBRA


NICHOLAS OKOYE (CEO/PRESIDENT TRANSCORP NIGERIA)

NICHOLAS OKOYE(ANABEL, NIGERIAN MOBILE PHONE PRODUCTION COMPANY)

EMEKA OFFOR(CHROME OIL/ ERCH ENERGY IN SAO TOME )

SOLUDO

ANAMBRA CONTD

CHRIS NGIGE

NNAETO ORAZULIKE (GENESIS PH)

SIR INNOSON (INNOSON CAR MANUFACTURING COMPANY) 1ST IN AFRICA

MC LOPH

FLAVOUR N'ABANIA( FROM ANAMBRA BUT BORN AND BROUGHT UP IN ENUGU)

CHIMAMANDI ADICHIE

MORROCCO MADUKA(HIGH LIFE MUSICIAN)

OSITA OSADEBE(HIGH LIFE MUSICIAN FROM ATANI INOGBARU ANAMBRA)

ADAEZE IGWE-OKOYE (NOW ADAEZE IGWE -YOBO)

CYPRIAN EKWENSI(WRITTER OF PASSPORT OF MALLAM ILLIA, AFRICAN NIGHT ENTERTAQINMENT, BURNING GRASS ETC)

CHISCO TRANSPORT

IFESINACHI TRANSPORT

PETE EDOCHIE

REV FR TANSI(FIRST WAFRICAN SAINT)

KELLY HANDSOME

JUHEL ( OWNER OF JUHEL ,NIGERIAN OWN DRUG MANUFACTURING COMPANY)

PROF NGOZI OJIAKOR

ORANGE DRUGS

ABC NWOSU

loius carter

OGBUAWA (motor cycle manufacturer)

so havin light skin means the person bleached , abegiii come to the east u will see boys girls that have even lighter skin than her including my dad.

so now we don wat.s.c.h am wetin come happen , u be hispanic

easy nigerian women are not the only ones involved , prostitution is a global problem ok .even the northern states u missed out have their own reputaion in saudi arabia, european whites are even worse they own the trade worldwide.

give her the 3k since you claim to be a ph buisness man and not a student and stop disgracing ph men cus i know they do big things there.

but if your a student i will advice you to focus on your studies ok there lots of campu chicks u can toast without spending much , just do assignments together.

i blame the yorubas,ijaw and the so called middle belters for this , if they had not put hand in the civil war we were already teaching those bastards a lesson. thay are not goin to stop they have not stopped in jos, somepeople in the military are supporting them, this is wat happens when theres a lot of division especially amongs the least populated tribes.

coppers are federal govt property so they should deal with them themselves

abuja is not even north its middle belt and its does not belong to the hausa either