₦airaland Forum

Correction or Crash? What the Nigerian Market Is Really Telling Us


https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLelyzjGuxrbj-ORzfwOEveV2vK0j1e3fw

yok:
WHAT WILL THE MARKET DO TODAY!!!
The market is moving towards a bearish stage.

It is very surprising that when the FPIs are out of the market, the recovery of the Nigeria market is a little bit challenging.

Let us see if the market can recover with just the local participants.

FPI had little to play in this bull run, Fine there was FPI but FPI mostly stayed in fixed income which is why Cardoso is reluctant to upset them by cutting rate aggressively.

What did drive the bull run was 1- massive Retail participation 2- Pension fund and other local institutions buyers 3-Sector rotation. 4- Iran U.S dance in middle East.

If truly FPI came to the market, book valuation of most large cap stocks in Nigeria will make this bull run seem like the beginning.

Ginalex:
Wapco try shed some weight fess. I want to see something

It has started but you just don't know it yet. It's getting weak and weak.

Ginalex:
Is now a good time to pick up Zenith abi I should wait small?🌚

By my calculations.

Still too early. Wait till atleast you see a bounce. Then before deliberating if it has reached bottom or considering buy dips.

By the way, that's not how i know when a stock is at bottom level but that roughly a clue before you start that conversation otherwise you will continue to buy dips and keep catching a falling knife.

Bluearrow:
But isn't there suppose to be a relief rally during correction phase? The red seems to be consistent, no days of relief at all. It has been days of consistent loss across these fund managers.

Boss, it's fear.

Fear and nervousity has taken over the market. Every consolidation on the top now is a red flag because smart investors are actively trying to leave the market without crashing the price, so they sell little by little and it takes days to complete sales because they actively trying to sell millions of naira worth of shares that's why you notice this pattern.


Now guess who are buying them?

You correct, Dips buyers. People who always buy the dip without knowing when it will bottom.

I see them on the stocks thread and X(twitter), I laugh because without them, the market won't stabilize, they are helping the market stabilize but sad thing is, they don't have the kind of money smart money has so smart money will continue to sell till they finish selling then the correction will be over.

This whole process takes days/weeks/months sometimes.


This is why, I have stopped recommending Nigeria stocks in my group for now. I am actively tracking bottom so we enter from bottom.

CSblackpink:
Does the NGX market move with the news? Trump just announced that Intel will team up with Apple to make local chips in the states; currently, Intel is already up to 8% in pre-market. I hope NGX will catch up with the rest of the world. The only time I see NGX moving is dividend and Christmas season.

You right with NGX moving during Dividend season.

Trump pronouncements barely affects NGX except it's issues surrounding oil because if crude price moves, it affects virtually all sectors in the NGX especially, Oil sectors and FMCGS.

What moves Nigeria market are the health of the Banks, Crude prices, Dividend season, New listings, Nigeria Government policies (e.g Tax issue etc), interest rates and FPI inflow and general sector rotation and corrections.

Any of the events above are majorly what drives the NGX.

Currently what is happening in Nigeria is purely the beginning of a correction.

yMcy56:
JAIZBANK
The heavy cross dealer is buying up while the yeye cross dealers in other stocks kept buying down and crashing the prices in the process....

FCMB for instance is becoming annoying.....not to even mention that ACCESS

Jaizbank has been on that consolidation run since April 26th.

Nothing really is different now unless ASI encourages broadbase buying again.

Raider76:
Yes. But GTCO gained today, signaling a possible bottom.

Take it from me, according to my numbers.

GTCO has not reached bottom.

When you talking about a stock that is just reaching bottom level. It's access holding. And i don't even think it will hold due to fear still in the market.

essentialone:
Can we please permanently ban Politics from this Thread?

Geo-Politics actually contributes to the triggers and some part of the sentiments that moves the stock market worldwide.

If Trump megalomaniac decision to attack Iran which caused strait of Hormuz to be closed did not happen, Oil stocks in Nigeria wouldn't have shot up so fast in the past few months to make ASI come to this overbought region.


So do you expect investors not to talk about the war or Trump future behavior?

princezzz:
Based on this information from sec's website, regarding the rise and fall of each equity's house percentage for the week, i noticed that Cowrywise rose the most with 15%, from the 1st of june to 5th of June, while Zedcrest fell the most by 10%.
Using these 2 houses, can one easily say that they both have totally different opposing stocks in their basket??

And for the house that recorded 0% changes and didnt move at all, e be like say no trading was done on the stocks they invested in, or the kukuma pulled out totally because of the yakubu in the stock market.

My small brain is trying to analyse what stocks Zedcrest them invested in that threw them far, and still crashed them back, and what stocks Cowrywise invested in that made them 15% when every other person was still reading -ve on investments that week.

Omo, to be a fund manager no go be an easy something o, i imagine them leaving their offices and their heads will constantly be on fire, but i know that they are making their money sha...

Fund managers don't just invest 100% of investors money into stocks.

How it works is, they have already bought with their own money from days when those stocks are very cheap and undervalued, you are only buying from them (like a secondary market) which is why they allot you some NAV unit after confirming your payment.

They don't make loss like you think, they only record day to day paper loss or gain to know how to allot you your percentage gain or loss for the day to match up with reality of the market. Plus you will pay them fund manager fee on both days you make loss or gain.

Secondly, they don't invest all your money into Equity, they set aside some cash for investors looking to redeem fund and also invest some into fixed income market like old bond with high yield or even MMF but you wouldn't know this.

So the best you can do is take a leaf from their play book, keep 60% of fund in fixed income and use 40% to trade yourself expecially now that the market is about to reset.

And when you begin to trade yourself and you feel you making losses on trades you taking, use the returns from the fixed income to average down, in the end, you will beat inflation, beat equity fund managers returns and beat the market in the long run and also get your dividends straight to your bank account.

mikeayus:
I just sent again with another email, maybe the first one went into your junk/spam folder.

One bloody scammer already called me on whatsapp with this number +1 587 690 1099 claining to be beeron

please be very careful bro.

I don't call and I don't use Whatsapp for the the group.

I have just replied your email now.

Nemesisobaara:
I’ve just stated MMF in February this year and I invested 10m and I have made 500k plus in just three months. I need to be guided to other trading that can make me money make inflation no marry my
Money

If you don't have any other spare fund to invest in a more risky investment to beat inflation. Don't make the mistake of withdrawing that 10 million.

Consider using the returns from the MMF to invest in Equities or Stocks.

Stocks or Equity will help you beat inflation, MMF will be the steady supply cash flow to enable you wait out the volitility of the Stock market.

mikeayus:
I sent you an email yesterday, waiting for your response. Thanks

I really do respond to all email I get, please check from your end if the mail was actually sent.

Try send again.

auschris:
Hi guys,

Is there anyone that has been in the group created by Beeron?
2 individuals with different numbers have reached out to me claiming to be Beeron. Can the real Beeron show up?

Good afternoon Chief.

Please be very mindful of some people out there. Thank goodness you verified.

This is my real profile and the process to join the group is stated on the first topic on my profile. Just click on my profile.

Nobody Is Talking About This NGX Signal; ASI Correction vs breakout battle; Big Clue Emerges



https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLelyzjGuxrbj-ORzfwOEveV2vK0j1e3fw

Nobody Is Talking About This NGX Signal; ASI Correction vs breakout battle; Big Clue Emerges



https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLelyzjGuxrbj-ORzfwOEveV2vK0j1e3fw

CSblackpink:
Cheers, bro. How can I join the group? Made a lot of 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑 tonight.

Good one on your investment bro. That money must be made.

Due Nairaland bot ban, The details to join the group is on the first topic on my profile.

CSblackpink:
Yakubu doesn't want to leave NGX anyway; for those that have access to foreign stocks, huge money will be dropping constantly. Once the Strait of Hormuz is open on Friday, the land will go greenish and greenish. These are the stocks in my foreign portfolio.

yep ASI continues its weakness. I keep running the numbers and everything points to inevitable correction.


This is why I am starting to recommend U.S ETF to investors in my group.

Yeah, this story is true. I have once watched the documentary of this lady about 2 years ago.

She lived a decent modest life which it was why, it was extremely hard to smell anything shady for that long.

But when investigation began on her, FBI followed the money trail and realized that she was so rich that she bought lots of horses, had stable for horses and a paddock (field where horses are trained)

For you to afford any of that, you must be extremely RICH by America living standard, that was what blew the case open.

CSblackpink:
I won't even buy even if it dips; my Korean stock is doing wonders for me. Once this war is over, money will fly here and there; the only elephant in the room trading Korean stocks is the high level of liquidity and aggressive profit-taking, which makes it more volatile than other stocks or ETF.

Nice one Chief.

Will Spacex hold?

Some people are taking profit already.

CSblackpink:
Huge Titanic is waiting for the investors that dived in. My friends told me to dive in; I told them it is impossible.

I'm glad you made the right decision. Because here is logic.

If the current valuation holds for a long time, then definitely you can still enter when it dips and comes back to the level or upper level. Or worst case scenario you buy it when it added to an EFT fund, in both ways, you still win.

However, what if you rush in now and valuation reality hit and it actually did plummet. Na there wahala dey but of course. Many people are not rational thinkers when money is involved, they are driven by emotions and the buzz, some believe because it's in the news, it will keep holding value.

I am smiling Patience Ozokwor smile here.

ollypass:
hmm that gamble has made him the world first trillionaire...and stock is 19% up from about 25% all time high I think ..

Let the hype pass and let the dust settles. Valuation reality will come soon.

Keep in mind, the gamble isn't referred to Elon Musk, Elon is the one who gained. The gamblers here, are the investors who rushed in.

ollypass:
Could it have been remotely possible that the space x ipo yesterday was responsible for the reds NGX witnessed for most of June?

Many investors in Nigeria didn't even know it exists. Not even every investor know what Dangote IPO means and when it's scheduled to be listed. Only the once that follows the news know.

Now do you want to tell me that institutional investors in Nigeria will dare to weaken ASI just to go buy into the gamble of Elon Musk?

Nahhhh

I had this same experience some years back too. After that day I vowed never to fix car at ladipo again. The best advice is to let your mechanic go buy the part and fix it.

Did you install car tracker lately?

As regards the update about the group participation, please click on my profile to read the first topic.

Nairaland bot has been banning me posting some stuff here.

Cc:

auschris
Burchester
Svoboda

It's been crazy with Nairaland bot.

The bot has been a pain in the butt since morning. Oga Seun, your bot is too overzealous.

Ross keeps it real, been following him since day 1.