₦airaland Forum

PharmAlfred:
Keep an eye on GSK. Don't say you were not told.

I hope what you mean is that the price is going up... I heavily loaded more today... I don't want stories that touch...

Took more risk today by jumping into Fidelity @ 3.02 and Unilever @ 15.75... I know it's a risky move. Life is all about risk. My positions in dansugar, ETI, UBA, GSK etc are making me proud though.
OGG thanks for recommending GSK. It was never on my radar.
I hope this will be a good move too. I just need 20% in them o...

samguru:
If you bought before markdown date you are automatically qualified.

My bonus has been credited to my cscs account

I bought before mark down. I checked my Morgan capital broker account and the bonus is not reflecting. Please how do I get online access to my CSCS account?

samguru:
The bonus is 1for 5.

They have

Please when was it paid? It hasn't reflected on my stock account.

My friend pack your bag and leave this Shithole. Those advising you to take the immigration job don't understand that even though you can grow as an immi officer, everything isn't about money. There is nothing as good as having a good social support system which Nigeria lacks. If salary should make you stay back, it shouldn't be a meagre 140k per month. If you totally eliminate corruption, civil service salary is very poor in Nigeria.
I know someone that served in a Swiss prison and while there, had a major medical issue and the Swiss govt gave him first class medical care. If he was to be free in Nigeria, he probably wouldn't be alive today.

See money moving in Zenith... I hurriedly sold my stake...

FIDSON on full bid...

onegentleguy:
Thanks bro !!

Yet another +1...
It's my Bday folks.

Pls join me in saying a big thank u to DEVINE for his GRACE.
Far above everything else, for his mercies and privilege of life despite my shortcomings.
...it can ONLY be GOD !! I remember the post above(a turning point)

No matter where u are, who u are and what u do, ALWAYS ALWAYS admit to his grace in ur life.
...Believe me when I say; it pays to do so !!

Regards

Happy birthday. May you continually be lifted as you lift others.

megawealth01:
Zenith and FBHN move was cool but that WAPCO move was wrong... My opinion sha

Let's see how it goes sha. Even if I re-enter wapco at the current price, it wasn't a bad decision. I will wait a little bit to see where the market is headed.

The market was bloody today. Thank God I exited wapco at 18.50 yesterday. Took profit from FBNH and Zee today. Let's see how things pan out before going back in.

TheNewAgeFarmer:
I just want to say a big thank you to everyone.

Something happened at the workshop today. The Mech wanted to use engine oil in replacement of transmission oil, his reason was that, there is no starch in transmission oil, it’s not thick enough. But I insisted on using Toyota WS AT FLUID. The engine oil he wanted to use in replacement of transmission oil is VISCO 2000�. One thing is, the young man has lots of jobs at hand.

I also showed him videos on how to gauge the transmission oil on youtube, he refused the idea that he has gauged it.

For now the car drives well, no free road to count the gear.

Cost of repair;
Part: 38,000
Scan: 2,000
Gum and fuel: 1000
Workmanship: 17,000
Transmission: two 4L x2 30,000, 1L 5,000.
Total: 92,000

Can you imagine trying to use nigerian engine oil on a transmission. That would have just sent your transmission to death. If you are technically inclined a bit and listen to these mechanics, you will understand why a car will be very ok after 10years of use abroad but will die within 5 years in Nigeria. I do my troubleshooting and minor repairs myself these days. For major repairs, I do the troubleshooting, source the parts and supervise the mechanic. Cars have become sophisticated for the ordinary uneducated Kazeem.
Earlier this year, my car overheated while on traffic in Ikeja, took the car to this kazeem and he said I should remove thermostat, change radiator, connect fan direct and other rubbish suggestions that would have made me waste a lot of money. I did the troubleshooting and repairs myself. Guess what I changed - radiator cover. 10 months later, I haven't experienced another overheating.
If you are technically inclined, download the workshop manual of your car. Take time to consult it when you have issues before going to these car killers.

Felicity0001:
Dealers and their tricks... I have always know this for a long time, 05/06 Camry comes with stereo control on the steering wheel. This is one easy way to differentiate it from 02/04 physically. I still find it difficult differentiating using the lights.

What if the steering wheel of a 2002/2003 is changed to one with controls? The only sure way to know the model year of any car is via the VIN. The tenth digit of the 17 digits VIN is the model year. Read more about it. Body features or whatever can be changed but the VIN which is always engraved on the car chassis is the surest way to know the model year.

A combination of exercise and food portion control are the healthiest ways of losing weight. Don't say that you don't have time for exercise. You haven't set your priorities right. Your health and the other activities that take your time which comes first? Health is wealth.
There is no one that can't make out atleast 30 minutes a day for exercise.

Slickleo:
Good morning all ogas PL I notice if I calculate the fair with #65 per km #10 per minute my total money is still being shorted and some folks claim fair was increased below are some screenshots,abeg make una follow me calculate.

Don't mind those saying that fare was increased. Maybe they used surge to infer so which shouldn't be. I did the same calculation on Uber last Sunday and also observed the same thing. There was no increase in bolt/Uber fares.

Hello guys. It's been a while. Since this covid19 issue in March I haven't done ehailing. I also haven't been active here.
I want to enter road tomorrow. How is lagos road conditions during this rainy season? Which areas have bad roads? I don't want to beat up my car at all.
Any new development apart from the LASG new regulations?
Please bring me up to speed...

Abia my state, when will thou be delivered from these evil ones? Abia has been badly run from inception till date. That is why ABA still looks like a 1970 city. Obinna Oriaku and his principals are all mad. They are birds of the same feather.

ositadima1:
Qwention I ask u, u no answer. Please read d book first before putting out erroneous comments.

Just so u know, if I strictly follow Rule #1 no stocks on the NSE would be worthy. No stock I analysed so far, passed the big five test. The valuation method he detailed in d book, is too conservative so much that u can hardly see any stock on the NSE trading close to that price.

How did I know you got that from rule #1 if I haven't read it?
I don't use a single valuation method. It's always a combination of comparative ratios, historical performance and absolute valuation methods that depend on the stock and the sector being valued.
The bolded is not totally true. I have seen few stocks that passed the test. Abeg no vex. I just wanted you to understand our reality from what is written in the textbooks.

ositadima1:
But sir, if the sector is a growing one, paying regular dividends may not be that important.

At that stage such companies might be better than me at reinvesting the dividends.

Anyway, there are no such sectors or companies in the NSE right now.

You are seriously reading Rule #1 by Phil Town. Please don't forget the market you are investing on. To the best of my knowledge, this market isn't a market you just buy a stock and forget. Rule #1 was based on US stock market. Please don't forget that. Thank God you realized on your last statement.

onegentleguy:
Not best suited for every asset? ...YES !!
But note the phrase; "best suited". ...meaning its ok, but there should be a more appropriate method of valuing the said asset.

Not suitable for specific markets? ...hell NO !!
Again NO valuation method/model fits it all.
The KEY is on how well u use them !! ...that's what counts for everything, as it is what determines the level of REWARD u can tap from utilizing them.

Btw, we are all learning. ...I am also a learner like u !!

Selah

Thanks.
That's why we have you here...
You just refined my previous learning...

onegentleguy:
My dear it's ok if ur assertion was driven by the need to advise for CAUTION, but it is totally wrong to write-off that valuation method on the premise that it's mostly based on assumptions and estimates.
All valuation templates/model are also based on some degree of assumption, albeit at varying levels.

The valuation u derive from using any valuation model is only but a forecast/estimate that u hope will eventually match ur EXPECTED RETURN over a specific timeframe.
But what u'd eventually get(reward in view), which is ur ACTUAL RETURN is a faction of how RISK gravitates around ur INVESTED CAPITAL. ...that RISK will always be there because its a subset of every investment play, and NOT because u had used the best valuation model or a different one from the DCF.
Ur power/potential to reap REWARD lies not in any one valuation method, but in ur ability to manage that part about RISK that comes from using them.

If and when u apply the DCF method to the RIGHT asset segment and appropriately size RISK, it can also be one of the best.
Best in this case, isn't subjective, so no one valuation method can be said to be cast in stone.(definite)
The KEY is on how well u utilize it. ...then again, the "how well" part is a function of how u can effectively rejig and refine each valuation model to sync with ur investment personality and goals !!

...see my last post above.

I never expressly wrote nor implied that it is a total write off. I mentioned that I use it to compare.
The issue with it is that it's not for every asset and more suitable for specific markets like you mentioned in bolded.
No one valuation model works in all cases. Don't get me wrong, I am still learning and will always be learning...

ositadima1:
All valuations have assumptions as their basis. Except you get eye way dey see tomorrow. You be babalawo?

Yes all valuation have assumptions but the lesser the assumptions the more reliable the result will be. DCF valuation is mostly all assumptions and estimations. You must be a God to get all the assumptions right at the same time. Don't get me wrong, DCF valuation works for NYSE and developed markets where the economy is relatively stable and more predictable. It is not for NSE that is in an undeveloped economy without any foreseeable timeline for future growth. I use it seldomly just to compare with other valuation models. It's not to be solely relied on as far as NSE is concerned.

ositadima1:
Not quite.


Once again, I pulled Dangote Cement PLC annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:

The big Five
Sales (revenue): growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 17.9% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
EPS: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 5.96% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Equity: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 17.43% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Free Cash Flow: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 21.95% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Long Term Debt-to-Free Cash Flow: 0.55 (pretty good)

Notes:
Not bad as per Nigerian standard. Though, Sales, EPS, and Equity slowed down last year (2019) at -1.06%, -48% and -8.99% respectively. I assume the harsh economy took a toll on the stock.

Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation

1.) Assuming 5.96% growth (EPS above) and 15% (MoS in view) rate of return projected for the next 10 years and then discounted for MoS. Buy price would be pegged at not more than 140.59 per share.

2.) Assuming 15% growth (Equity above) and 15% (MoS in view) rate of return projected for the next 10 years and then discounted for MoS. Buy price would be pegged at not more than 227.55 per share.

Conclusions: If you can snatch it at less than 140, u are very ok.

Also, better to buy when MACD, Stochastic and MA align and echo buy!







Due diligence applies as these numbers may be off the mark.

Good job. I dont think DCF Valuation model works for NSE. There are a lot of assumptions before coming to it. Like my lecturer in uni will say "Assumption is the mother of all f*ck ups". So please don't duel so much on it.

dazzlingd:
All eyes to see a man coming from the sky is a flat earth theory..

It is morning here in nigeria, afternoon in some other parts and mid nights..

Please how do u expect all eyes to see a man coming from the sky when all eyes cant see the sun whose size is 100 times that of the whole of earth, at the same time..

You people should wake up! It is a shame to be this dumb

We are talking about religion here and not science. Religion and science do not agree in most cases. I have no reply for you. I clarified Christ coming as written in the Bible.

Righteousness89:
To a Believer and student of the Bible ,The Rapture is a Glorious event which God has Promised to the Church. The Promise is to return and Snatch up His church, living and dead to Heaven and deliver them from the time of Judgement and Tribulation that will come upon the earth when God's Wrath is poured out on a Rebellious and unbelieving world during the End times.

To the Unbeliver, The Rapture is a Preposterous, Convoluted fantasy that is right out there.

Sadly, Some churches , pastors, teachers, etc Refuse to believe and teach what is Clearly taught and Promised in the Bible.

1Thelsalonians 4:16-18
16 For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first:
17 Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord.
18 Wherefore comfort one another with these words.

1Corithians 15:51-53
51 Behold, I shew you a mystery; We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed,
52 In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed.
53 For this corruptible must put on incorruption, and this mortal must put on immortality.


The Rapture is an Event in which the LORD JESUS CHRIST, descends from Heaven in the Clouds, and with the Sound of a Trumpet, Calls from the earth all those who have Chosen to put their Faith, Hope and Trust for Eternity and Salvation in Him.

The Rapture is the next event on Prophetic timetable. You Believe or you don't is irrelevant! It will Happen.
It will be in a twinkling of an eye. It will be just like every normal day. Many will not Even know. Many will be involved in their various affairs not knowing the Rapture has taken place and the Saints have been Snatched away.

Get Prepared Folks! For in such an hour that ye think not, The Master will Show up.

Salvation through JESUS Christ is all that is needed to be taken away. Flee from all form of Ungodliness, unrighteousness, Wickedness and so on.

Live Ready! Live Rapturable!
We Fly Soon..

See You in the Sky!

The bolded is a lie. That is the heresy that you all preach. Christ's second coming is going to be glorious. All eyes will see him when he come as written in Rev 1:7. It's not going to be a secret taking of some people while others are not away. We don't know the time it will happen but when it happens both the sinners and believers will know what is happening.

ositadima1:
Ok, I was trying to run a simulation on zenith and realized that they had negative 454 billion free cash flow in 2015 followed by another negative 3.5 billion cash flow in 2016. Gurus in the house, is this correct ? I know that despite the negatives, dividends were paid.

In valuing bank stocks, Cash flow isn't that important. I don't pay attention to it. This is because bank liabilities also act as their asset since they make money from peoples' deposits. A bank that is having a lot of free cash isn't managing funds efficiently. If every other thing checks out, just ignore the negative cash flows.

onegentleguy:
Chai !!
...I just found out what I consider one of the cheapest coy in the market.

With an appropriate blend of valuation models, FVE estimate is at near 200% discount from the present mkt price.
Even if the stock were to be immediately liquidated right now(and all other stakeholders get their share) a minority shareholder will get a cash reward that's well over double the current mkt price.(approx 2.5x)

The coys technicals also shows that price may have bottomed out, while current beta peg signals a huge possibility that an investor who aligned at the low price end(Ytd low) will be in for some big gains/ROI.
...infact, I see a probability that's already equivalent to 1 !!

It is well.

I have found the company...
The ticker has atleast 2 As...

ositadima1:
Can u please attach d spreadsheet.

Attached

DrAwo:
Excellent Sir (I'm assuming you are a sir)...
Please make my day by telling me you made this chart yourself......

Thanks.
I did it myself. The inspiration to post it was from you.

Flour Mills Analysis...

Webmannigeria:
Like i said earlier, Hold on to what you believe but it will be better to accept the TRUTH.

What determines the truth? The Bible. Just give me a Bible quote that clearly state your assertion and I will believe. You can't say your personal interpretation of the scripture is the truth. That is heresy.

phemmyfour:
read down the thread if you really want to learn

Please quote me with the actual post so that I will get you clearly.

Openbusiness4:
Christ took our nature when he became "flesh and blood". God didn't take your nature when he rested on the 7th day. Stop confusing yourself. Don't just read your Bible, "study" it and let it teach you. God's Sabbath is eternity. When a person "dies" he enters into the Sabbath of God. He stops "working" or applying his own energy or power. He enters a realm where everything functions by the divine energy of God, so he is at rest permanently. He doesn't need to do anything. Everything has been taken care of. This is the "rest" we talk about when people say "Rest in peace". But there's no rest for the wicked (scripture and literally), so there will be no Sabbath for the wicked. The religious Sabbath of Sunday or Saturday resting, is not the same as the true Sabbath. The religious Sabbath was introduced just to be a religious provision in Judaism for Judaists to have a time set apart they congregrate for their religious activity. In reality it is not a day of "rest". It is a day of religion. Do you rest when you are clapping in church or dancing and singing, is that rest? Or do you rest when burning incense as a Jewish adherent, or performing the worship rituals to God? You're still working. This was why Jesus rebuked the Pharisees when they accused him of breaking the Sabbath when he healed a man on the "Sabbath Day". They said he was working, he wasn't meant to work. But Jesus rebuked them and dismissed their accusations as false. Why? Because he knew what the real Sabbath is, and he knew what the Sabbath for religion is, a day you work the works of God. It is a religious work day, not a day of rest. There is no rest in the religious Sabbath. But the true Sabbath of God is the true rest and it is an eternal day, not 24 hours.

Hebrews 3:11, NIV: "So I declared on oath in my anger, 'They shall never enter my rest.''"

Hebrews 3:11, ESV: "As I swore in my wrath, ‘They shall not enter my rest.’”"

Hebrews 3:11, KJV: "So I sware in my wrath, They shall not enter into my rest.)"

Hebrews 3:11, NASB: "AS I SWORE IN MY WRATH, 'THEY SHALL NOT ENTER MY REST.''"

Hebrews 3:11, NLT: "So in my anger I took an oath: 'They will never enter my place of rest.''"

Hebrews 3:11, CSB: "So I swore in my anger, "They will not enter my rest.""


Hebrews 4:9, NIV: "There remains, then, a Sabbath-rest for the people of God;"

Hebrews 4:9, ESV: "So then, there remains a Sabbath rest for the people of God,"

Hebrews 4:9, KJV: "There remaineth therefore a rest to the people of God."

Hebrews 4:9, NASB: "So there remains a Sabbath rest for the people of God."

Hebrews 4:9, NLT: "So there is a special rest still waiting for the people of God."

Hebrews 4:9, CSB: "Therefore, a Sabbath rest remains for God's people."

I give up on your case bro. You have it all mixed up.
May God open your eyes to the true meaning of His words