₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
E Ku Market o. 😊
* Lots of Drama in the market......
* Big caps pushing the prices as much as they could......this driving the ASI up.....

* Battle for the soul of OANDO 😊
It will still close on full bid today.....
Either today, or some days later, it will cross 50.....at least, we now have a benchmark....

* ARADEL and SEPLAT can't be going up while OANDO remains at a spot ....
The brokers in charge have a lot to do on their sleeves, I have some faith in Anchoria in particular to roll up its sleeves and get the job done....
* Can they? We continue to observe the drama......😁
Let the weak hands be shaken off first..
*Btw, OANDO get to many pessimists, kilode!

You sure say Anchoria na the MM?
Those Anchoria peeps.

The Magic dem don dey do on-top Zichis never even finish .

Interesting....................
Thanks y'all.....






....

Have an affectionate lOooOong weekend ...

#OandO
I think it's good they started with RI for their shareholders. They still believe in themselves at least.
But unlike them and their usual trademark, they should have been marketing to push price above 50 before the Notification na..
(25% difference from current price)
When dem no be PRESCO

They probably want it for themselves and will probably reveal marketing goodnews from the shadows both during and after RI to push it to km 100+ and above.
#GuessingAnalysis

ProphetUtuocha:
The naysayers shall surely witness Oando move beyond 100% on current price this year but shall miss the moving train!

"Naysayers".. Na dem

CAP has done 100%
BERGER paints has done 100%
PRESCO has done 100%
TIP has done 100%
All within the past 6-9 months!

What's so special about the OandO prospect compared to someone in all these stocks within the past 9months.

You may be right in the future prospects of OandO this year but @unit4real is "righter"

Time value of Money is of the essence.
If you don't apply it in your "prophecy", then it isn't advisable for name calling those who got a bargain and more in other stocks.

NSEstudent:
I suspect they do. I just wanted the OP to say it.

Ok.

emmanuelewumi:
IPO means ( It is Probably Overpriced)

I go report you to SEC and NGX.

NSEstudent:
But off-market doesn't move the price, or does it? I think the ones which move the market are shown on the market trades lists and might indeed be entities selling to themselves to move the price to desired destination.

Based on the context of your question,
I only pointed an instance where they sell to themselves.
as your question seem to doubt it.


If they can sell to themselves without moving price in off-market agreements, what stops them from doing it in market trades?

NSEstudent:
You mean by selling to themselves?

Lol.. You dunno warris goin on..

Most reported off market trades are always same buyer and seller..
#Dont play.

jonnysessy:
Defender of the Universe Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Na real VoLTRON of NGX

emmanuelewumi:
N1000 to 1 USD won't be bad by December 2026

Alhaji Aliko na Talk and Do...
#Respect

pluto09:
If you believe someone could be doing what you highlighted above on the NSE and would be making the kind of money he claimed to be making then I have a monkey to sell to you.

There could be more to it.
Might not be as literal as I know and presented it.


Hedge funds that bulls even during bear in-well established markets already exists.

What I am skeptical is long-term sustainability not possibility.


I am sure if you also lived in early 20th century and being sold the "monkey idea" of the possibility of a flying object(Airplane ✈), even when gliding objects far superior to kites already exists.
You would probably be among those who would still call it outrightly a "Monkey" project without consideration.

Zeewirld:
Some of these insurance companies can conveniently buy over some of our Commercial banks

You say?
Abi the reverse is the case.
even Wema and Jaiz go buy half of the insurance companies, change go remain.

No commercial bank is worth less than a ₦Trillion. At least the listed ones.

HesInMe:
The ideal customer for a stockbroker. And for us NGXGROUP shareholders. Trading fees raining like water.

True.. I think he doesn't mind; provided the net-off is a gain and not a loss even if by 1%-2% daily.

^^
That's my understanding of the process.
I think it can be mentality tasking and risky for newcomers.
But I give it to him. He seems aware of the terrain and embraces the risk involved which you and I may not.

It becomes interesting if one hardly sells and reinvests the gains monthly. The compounding effect!

He has said sth similar.
Probably take time to go through his past posts. @stokfrick

stokfrick:
Bro you're getting me more confused.
Come down to my level na, haba
Break am down like biscuits

He trades daily.
E.g 5m @3%= 150000
another 4m @ 5%=12000
Another 1m @ 9%= 90,000.
If you keep at this daily, you may also encounter losses or traps in some stocks on the index.
But net gain by month-end should far exceed the losses and brokerage fees if you are quite good at it like he does.

you could also leave your losses(traps) as paper loss until it breaks even or bull surfaces.(essentially making 100% gains).


Liquidity and right stocks picks is the issue in a bear market, but if you keep your quantities low and have knowledge of the stocks in question, you can reduce the rate you get trapped.(skill involved).

In a bull market as we have currently, liquidity isn't much an issue. One could even trade 10million luckily @8-10%=800k- 1million
(bullish and very liquid stocks).

ppogba:
Honorary mention:

Rufai Oseni
Mushroom economic gurus on various media.

You see, atimes, I wonder whether people wishing the country bad fail to recognize the fact that as long as you are a Nigerian, the impact will touch you whether you are home or in the diaspora.

The honorary mention is a "P" on this thread.

I just hope FG fulfils most of the foreign debt obligations as they did last yr that has contributed to bringing the Fx to good light; cuz the debts........

EDUECO:
Slowly and surely,ACCESSCORP will get to ₦40 and then ₦ 80!

ACCESSCORP as my dividend investment is a sure banker!

All these jamboree on Access na till 2027 ending..
Chilax.

yMcy56:
CADBURY: 67
PZ : 68.80
UNILEVER: 80

PZ overtook CADBURY

PZ & Karl_Tom

unite4real:
I want to personally advise any newbies entering the Nigeria stocks Market.

The only target you should set for yourself is to beat inflation. Don't let social media influencers make you dream too much.

Fact.
Start with beating inflation.
#a practical baby-step while knowledge grows alongside.
One can then set knowledge-backed ambitious targets as time-in the-market and experiences grows.

KarlTom:
Still accumulating

The stock no dey move but dey average million volumes every day. #Accumulating don too wunjure the stock.

The day OandO go do 200+,
I fear say some names fit no dey this thread again.

kpele..

SonofElElyonRet:
Dem just dey twist my position..

SonofElElyonRet:
I never said empty the foreign reserve

OK. I get your perspective though.
It's not as though these funds are sitting idle which is where your concern seem to come from; very understandable. It's actually what necessitated my research some time ago.
The returns from these investments NOT the reserve itself are used to cater for the citizens in various capacities. (though citizens no dey too feel am)


From my research some time ago, what I found out the FG does with some of these reserves for citizens welfare is to invest it with a National investment _Firm(NSIA) of which only the proceeds are used to cater for citizens welfare in 3 indirect ways:

1)Stabilization fund: to Fund Budget Deficit(especially when oil Prices dip lower than budgeted estimates)

2)Future Generations Fund
Savings and investment for future children, future presidents and future Nation.

Infrastructure Fund:
Domestic infrastructure, health, education, Agric, etc.
The NDIF listed on Ngx is partly supported by NSIA.

Unfortunately these returns aren't enough for our monumental national issues
You can do more research.

Streetinvestor2:
My first call for this yr Tantalizer @#2.30 has delivered 100% percent...anyone concerned is now on your own
I am waiting for oando to do same
When is the next billion list going to happen
E get why

Na you get this one. You've been "tantalizing it" from late last yr.

SonofElElyonRet:
Priority of government is welfare and security of citizens please! Do you know that western and Arab countries give subsidy on certain items/services? Welfare first

Foreign reserve for welfare is a no-no.

It's like selling your house or emptying your bank account to feed your household for the next few days or month.
What happens before then, what of shelter, rainfall
thats too fragile for any economy.

when you can borrow against part of your house while still investing your savings, still provide shelter for the household.
Even if you were to eventually crash from the borrowings, you will crash much more faster spending and selling your last resort for welfare and consumption than borrowing heavily for both consumption and a fortune turn-around.



That said, I don't even support the excessive borrowings of the Government.
Aside the legacy and gigantic infrastructure projects,
Budgit isn't even helping matters by quantifying the number of failed and uncompleted projects from last 2yrs.

KarlTom:
The vision is for an appointed time (2022-2027)

this one deal don collapse.
Capitalization money don finish.
Make CBN start capitalization round biko
We must acquire

Mpeace:
Na to look for another bank to buy. No dulling, No time to check time.
The Acquisition must continue, to ...ell with share holders.

Lol... It must continue Ooo 2027. .

I just have a weird feeling that AccessBank partly influenced CBN to start this recapitalisation exercise.
The way they were the first to complete the exercise very much early in the game and immediately started deploying the fund by resuming acquiring ashoebiss

#On numbers
We don't have depth yet on NGX. So much money chasing few stocks and liquidity; even the dead ones will rise again.

Also our economy hasn't been stable yet on so many fronts for easy predictions and forecast. Hence so many forecasts might dissapoint.

Our import dependent economy also renders the numbers a bit redundant since internal businesses largely depends on external economy and international markets happenings to opererate.


Going forward,
-if the tax issues are harmonized,
-forex becomes less fluctuating,
-We have an export trade surplus,
-Improve self sufficiency gap in major raw materials input for industries,
-More market depth- listing of companies that highly correlates NGX input with our GDP
-Improved spread, float and liquidity on some stocks,

then we will have much more aligned stocks whose numbers closely predict forecasts on an economy with little impact from internal and external shocks.

But for now, it works if applied to stocks that align +vely with it.
The situation is to identify those that are more tilted towards the numbers by the MM.
and apply others metrics like TA, sentiment,etc heavily for other stocks.

Shalom428:
LolWell Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

Shalom428:
Follow The Money

Yes, you are right on the numbers thing. It's usually irrelevant on some stocks on NGX especially in the short term.

Those with favourable numbers move slowly and organically proving that numbers works.

The solution Is to find the stocks that follow the numbers and use numbers for them and apply other parameters for others as the case may be.

The perception problem also comes in play when we compare with those that defy the numbers; they move more exponentially.
Making one look silly for sticking with the numbers(despite improvement)

Those with numbers don't usually beat inflation in the short term, they do when the compounding effect materialises in few years.
The discipline is having the patience until that tipping point and then have relative stability.

But unfortunately, our double digit high inflation and other economic challenges esp on necessities, providing ones own social amenities, etc makes it common sense to just follow the money.

awesomeJ:
They won't have to sell though, the paper value of the stocks would count towards the recapitalizion target. As per what the chairman of Apt Securities said in an interview, he's also on the board of the SEC.

If it's like that. They don't have problem then. That's their specialty; Market makers

ASI fit even touch 200k

emmanuelewumi:
The most important thing is the ability to correctly forecast the sustainable compounded annualized earning growth rate for the next 3 to 5 years

Yes. that's the ish.
Generally speaking, I just think companies that carry out long-term contract agreement spanning years for the bulk of their goods or services provided won't be far off their forecasts.

awesomeJ:
After the demutualization, every broker got about 6m units of NGXGROUP.

when SEC announced the new capitalization guidelines, the stock was around N78 or less.

Now at N113, that's a N35 gain per share, so every broker's holding has grown by 6m × N35 which is about N200m.


Some people would be quick to want to say how about those that have sold, just cos they're looking for what to fault?

Whether anyone has sold is not the point here, the point is that between the last recapitalizion and now, brokers have gotten NGXGROUP stock and the value of what they got has gone up by about N200m in the past month.


Yet they still have 16 months to meet up.

Interesting..
The problem arises when they
all decide to sell towards the end of the 12months period to update their books..
who go wan buy that volume and value worth in billion if they eventually push to 200

emmanuelewumi:
What will you say about Sahcol.

Current PE of Nahco is 16.3, if they pay 90% of earnings as dividends the dividend yield will be 5.5%, if they can continue with their earnings and dividends growth by 30% for the next 5 years that will be about 20% dividend yield based on the current stock price

Current dividend yield plus earning growth divided by current PE

(5.5 +30) divided by 16.3

35.5/16.3

That is 2.17. I look at a minimum of 2 but 2.5 and above is preferable




Formula was developed by Peter Lynch and uses a minimum of 1.5.


I use 2 and above because of a higher required return for Nigerian stocks

Interesting.
Just did a little check. It's Lynch variation of PEG ratio.
And it kinda makes sense for value companies.

Thanks for the insight.