₦airaland Forum

grandstar:
Self sufficiency doesn't make you rich. It does the very opposite, makes you poor.

The richer countries are, the more interdependent on other countries they tend to be. The poorer you are, the more self reliant a country is.

If Switzerland was self reliant, why is it importing $291bn worth of goods.

India after its independence focused on self sufficiency. It impoverished it. That's one reason why India is poor today. It was only on 1991 that India began to liberalize trade. With trade liberalization and lowering of tariffs,

This forced its businessmen to focus on areas it had competitive and comparative advantage. One of this was the software industry. Today, it's a global leader in it.

You must have heard of the EU, the European Union. It is not just the largest free trade area in the world but actually a single market.

Any country that joins the EU immediately removes all import and trade barriers with other countries within the EU. So how do member states benefit?

Let's take a look at the UK. The size of its economy is $3.332tr. If joins the EU, that means companies from other EU countries can export duty free to it.

The UK on the other hand has gotten access to the EU market which is $19.4tr! This is 6 times the British market.

When Britain was still part of the EU, many European, Japanese and even US car makers came to set up factories in the UK to sell to the EU market. The country in 2016 manufactured 1,817 000 cars in that country. However, in 2016, Britain voted to leave the EU. That means the free access it had to the EU was gone. Production in 2022 dropped to 775,000.

Companies are only looking for places they can either manufacture cheaply or buy from cheaply or cheaper. Self sufficiency makes that virtually impractical.

That's why lphones are manufactured in China and India rather than in the US by Apple. Apple does not even manufacture the phones itself. It is outsourced to Foxxcoon, a Taiwanese company.

That's why many US and EU car manufacturers have moved production to Mexico. It's cheaper to produce it there and export it to America.

A company making cars may prefer to buy its steel from Turkey because it's cheaper than that made in the US. For a car to be manufactured competitively, no more than 50% of its parts can be sourced locally.

Burma practiced self sufficiency for about 3 decades. It is desperately poor today. North Korea is also self sufficient.

Your interpretation of "self sufficiency" need some padding or rather, isn't self-sufficient.
Switzerland imports but produces enough to cover those imports. It is a case of choosing what to do and doing it well enough that others dont easily push them aside. That's a form of comparative advantage arrived at by careful calculation and not capitalists in power or close to power just choosing it for personal gains.

That's huge. I see why parallel market was always dictating the direction of forex prices.

Marwa is trying sha.

Finally, they have given in to our textbook jargon experts. Let's see how the move goes.

Cc: grandstar, nairalanda1, omohayék, kukutente

Vision101:
And this should be the policy pursuit now? A policy that its yield cannot be less than five years. We had it before during the days of oil boom. Where are the results?

policy implemented with personal gains in view always flop. That's the issue. Corruption.

Healthy diet you say. I have to switch to akpu and chicken stew.

Vision101:
Sometimes I wonder how some of us (if given the the chance) will perform the miracle that we expect others to perform. Import substitution? Can you enunciate the policy and achieve the results in even two years?

irrespective of how well the suggesting person can perform, import substitution is the logical way out and never these fire brigade, indices-chasing moves.
Import substitution simply means taking something you would normally import and thus need forex for, and speed up its production locally so you no longer have to import it.
It ensures you employ local hands. Utilize local potentials and materials, then brings about a stronger local currency when you export excess.

For a start, we spend more than 60% of our income on feeding so agriculture is not a brainer.

Same animals targetting people like me during endsars and after. Hunger has brain resetting capabilities o.
Today they are playing nice and using style to defy the zombie attitude.

They are not landlords with grazing routes all over the Ghana.

immortalcrown:
What do people gain from eating this?

since you feel it offer next to nothing, do this experiment.

Buy lots of it and start feeding a malnourished person then watch how fast they change. Kponmo is not low in nutrients o.

nedekid:
Lol, you wan wound me with laugh.
So you know? You have not seen where persin reach station, them offer am cold minerals, ask am watin him go chop, give am correct amala with gbegiri, ewedu, add, correct ogunfe with shaki, ponmo, fukun, roundabout, come even ask am if him need fresh fish (today own). Ontop?
Omo, for olopa to spend him ₦1 on you, know say better case with Huge money involve. Lol

same police under whose watch bad boys will write letter to inform residents of planned robbery and still succeed.

Lol...trying hard to clear off the endsars mess. Sanwo-olu is on a long thing.

omohayek:
The float has nothing to do with the issues afflicting the economy, which is excessive printing of money to disguise the reality that higher interest rates have caused the cost of servicing debt to go up, and no one (other than the hated IMF) is willing to roll over Nigeria's loans at rates they could get from OECD countries. Ending the float would only worsen the government's financial problems, as the money simply isn't there for a peg, but going back to the old multiple-exchange rates scheme would reintroduce incentives for round-tripping while scaring away what few investors might be considering Nigeria as a destination.

Given Nigeria's parlous finances at the end of Buhari's tenure, there was bound to be massive economic pain no matter who took the reins, and no matter the policies they adopted. Where Tinubu is to be faulted is for taking half-measures that will needlessly stretch out that suffering, like slowly peeling off a plaster instead of ripping it off once and for all. Like Erdogan, Tinubu also seems under the deluded belief that negative low interest rates are "good" for the masses, and he is so controlling that he preferred to bring on as CBN governor a man he could be sure would remain firmly under his thumb.

The result of this mindset is Cardoso's ridiculous refusal to hike rates, which is allowing inflation to run rampant and discouraging long-term investment while skewing the economy as people desperately try to hedge their savings by simply taking their money abroad (worsening the FX shortage), or parking it in assets like land instead of in manufacturing or other more productive targets.

Let's be honest, higher interest rates do hurt in the short term, as they bring a halt to a lot of activities which only seem worthwhile in an environment of "free" money, but the government's current policies are turning what might have been a sharp but short contraction followed by an investment boom, into a long, slow decline and (after several years) an equally slow, lackluster recovery.

textbook jargons thats impractical in Nigeria. No be only higher interest rates, na interest from above.

AareGaa:
Oluomo is more popular than all ibo leaders put together.

that's because he is a terror to so many. Not so omoluabi-ish.

The govt is trying to hang it around N1500/$ mark. Selling slightly below and pushing for it to be resold at just above that is their strategy for now.
We need some drastic import substitution and not these cosmetic shenanigans.

The residents of that area should be careful about skinny looking dudes with pubic scalp hair.
That plant can be targeted for grazing still.

The heat has used the water tears was suppose to form from to release sweat. I sweated as I read through.

I am forced to conclude there are some principalities and powers leaders usually swear to never to fix Africa before they get to power. Is like their conscience is on level zero-over-six.

seunmsg:
Just tell Barth to stop stealing Alex Otti’s project. Alex Otti started the project and completed it within 6 months. Barth should stop clauking ownership. - Obidients.

Same way Oluomo built Lagos Atlantic city but the APC guys are taking credits?

By the time we start importing.kponmo from all around the globe, forex market will shake small. No more shakara for Fulanis.

seunmsg:
Barth Nnaji should stop lying. Alex Otti started and completed the project within 6 months. Peter Obi would have even done 6 of similar project within six months in all the thirty six states if he was the president.

If the believe the nonsense above, you must definitely be an Obidient 🤣🤣🤣

This project is 10 times more impacting to the commoners around than what we are used to elsewhere.
We are talking productivity here and not just aesthetics to justify looting margin.

One of the truly visionary projects of value around. I rate this above Dangote refinery in terms of public impact.
And even more compared to other flashy project by the Lagos crew that barely improves the productivity of the average Lagosians.

Maybe a criminal is jamming the signals or the mast is being scrapped for recycling by freelance stakeholders(omila).

We all know the unwritten rules.

oyatz:
Do you know what will happen if you take away $2 Billion from Nigeria's economy right now?

1) Why not deploy NYSC members to farms to start massive cultivation of corn and wheat ,both of which takes about 90days to harvest?

2) Set-up National Food Company via PPP to buy made-in-Nigerian food items like rice, Cassava flour, Poundo Yam and meat directly from the Farmers and sell at subsidised rates to the all Civil servants, Military and Para military officers while the cost is deducted dire from from their salaries just as we arranged subsidised healthcare in form of NHIS.
In the second phase, all employees of banks and companies with verifiable identities and data bases can also buy from the scheme while the cost are deducted from their salaries.

In the third phase, workers in the Informal sector can also buy from the scheme while their association e.g NURTW collect the money upfront from their members and pay to the company.


In this way, we will eliminate the middle men, patronise the farmers and help the masses.

Through power and petrol subsidy we are taking more out of the economy already so why not abandon those and do food import.
Besides the food won't be subsidized but sold at competitive rate to crash prices of grains reasonably.

NaijaphiliaBlog:
Actually, alphaNomega is technically correct.

The USA can print money (and has actually done so) with minimal to zero inflationary damage to their economy.

The question then is WHY?

The reason is simple: The US dollar has been internationalized as a medium of exchange.

Just think about all the millions of Africans, Asians, Europeans etc who are saving, investing and even spending US dollars - without having ever stepped on USA soil.

In essence, the inflationary consequences of the USA printing money are exported to other countries!

add to that the fact they print and use to pay producers of real goods and not salaries of idlers in govt parastatals like ours.
That's means increase in goods the money will be buying as It circulates slowly out of the hands of the first earners.
In our case, one big man will sit on it and take half to forex market, thereby weakening local currency.

grandstar:
You do have a point.

The government is owing the Genco $1.3b and the Discos 1.3tr. This has adversely affected them.

In most countries that subsidize energy, it is a huge strain on their budgets.

Govt owes so much because consumption is being subsidized and not production. The electricity in question, what is it being used for?
To watch TV, entertainment, wasteful lightings etc. Instead separate productive industries from consumption centred residences and subsidize the one that grows our GDP the most of the two.

grandstar:
Removal of petrol subsidies and the floating of the Naira had nothing to do with the West.

The petrol subsidy subsidies was costing the nation about 8 trillion Naira yearly. The subsidy left a massive in the budget which was covered by either borrowing or printing money. It was unsustainable.

Once Tinubu "ended the subsidies", it freed up a lot of cash. More cash went to the state and the cash for the federal government simply meant that the size of the budget deficit was smaller.

Also, the petrol subsidy discouraged investment in refining crude oil. No one would want to set up a refinery to produce a product that would be sold at a loss. Dangote wants to first produce diesel and kerosene as their prices have been fully deregulated. Tinubu should have gone the full mile and deregulated the price. Now the subsidy has returned with gusto and may gulp 9 trillion or more this year.

The floating of the exchange rate has nothing to do with the West. It's primary purpose was to close the gap between the official rate and the parallel or black market rate. Why should the gap be reduced? It is to prevent dollar racketeering or round tripping which boomed during Buharis tenure or under

Lamido Sanusi said that the difference should never be more than 3%. The World Bank was more liberal and said 5% could suffice. Under Emefiele, it was as high as 200% differential. People would just buy dollars at 199 and sell at 310. Or buy at 410 and sell at 550. Meanwhile, under both Sanusi and Charles Soludo, they tried to keep it within the 3% bracket. It is to end such level of corruption and ensure forex is properly allocated through a deregulated market.

Round tripping waa probably the primary means people became fantastically rich under Buhari. This led to the foreign reserves being drained down to about a month's worth of import while 3 month is the expected norm.

The usually thing to do when the foreign reserves are empty is to approach the IMF for balance of payment support and they would generously supply but would come with stiff conditions.

As usual, you mixed some outright lies that serves as foundation for weak and flawed argument with some irrelevant facts to get away with murder of logic.
Dangote can always sell to govt and allow govt decide on whether to subsidize or resell at a profit, but you sounded as if Dangote was a marketer ready to go into petroleum product distribution side by side with NNPCL.
Even in international market, the people buying Dangote refinery products could end up subsidizing it somewhere else that's not Nigeria. That doesn't mean Dangote Is making a loss. Nigerian govt can be that fictitious Intl buyer in the preceding sentence.

omohayek:
And how exactly do the following empty generalities constitute "constructive criticism" and a "solution" to anything?

It's merely pointing out the obvious to say that the Nigerian economy suffers from low productivity. The real question is how to increase said productivity, not merely pointing out the need to do so, and here Peter Obi has nothing to say on the matter. Not once has Obi offered any concrete policy proposals in this direction, just vague moral posturing.

The same is true of his talk of "fighting corruption". Well, duh! Of course corruption is bad! Of course it needs to be fought! But does Obi offer any substantive proposals as to how to do a better job of that than has been the case in Nigeria for the last 60 years? Of course not! Why are we supposed to treat the man as if he were some sort of prophet for simply stating what anyone with eyes can see?

The ironic thing here is that, like the proverbial broken clock which is right twice a day, Peter Obi is actually correct in his criticism of the EFCC's scapegoating of the BDC. Such actions do nothing to solve the underlying causes of Nigeria's runaway inflation (namely loose monetary policy by the CBN and money-printing by the FG), while undermining investor confidence in the government's respect for markets and the rule of law, driving away the very foreign investment the country so badly needs. The tragedy is that Obi, in his unwillingness (or inability) to do more than offer empty but nice-sounding generalities as "constructive" advice, gives no indication that he would have fared any better at tackling Nigeria's problems if he were at the helm. He is like the proverbial backseat-driver who prattles on as if he were Lewis Hamilton, safe in the knowledge that his inflated self-opinion will never be put to the test.

The fear of Obi is undeniable.
He doesn't owe anyone details of his "increase in production" idea.
The same Tinubu who was advising Buhari to print cash three years ago, got in there, saw the damage cash printing has already done, still went ahead to print his own cash, but in all is acting as if emefiele committed a capital crime by being in charge of excess money circulation under Buhari.

Same fate is bound to befall Obi should he try give his idea in details to one shortcut-prone big man from Lagos.
Even though Obi was a below average leader from his time in Anambra, your criticism here is laced with blind political zeal to condemn Obi and support Tinubu - something you have done since 2014.

Textbook demons. Lol