₦airaland Forum

PapaBrowne:
Are you really trying to take a snipe at the caption or at Sanusi?? You've confirmed that the Yuan option is a bad idea "because of relative illiquidity". If you say more like 1% and less, the question then is why should we seek to convert such a small amount of our reserves when it wouldn't solve the problem of declining value?? Ask yourself that question and you would understand that Sanusi is more interested in his own personal ideologies than Nigeria's economy. His anti western/american ideologies is what is pushing him to seek to support the Chinese yuan against the dollar. The guy is just really cheap!

During the booming days before the financial crisis, dollars continued its depreciation against Euro, Pounds, Canadian dollars and other notable currencies, and once sanity returns back into the market, what’s to stop dollar from depreciating against all these notable currencies again, putting our reserves at risk again? We all know the effect the US Trillion dollars debt and trade deficit will have on their economy and currency going forward. I think not reducing our dollar holding will hurt us more in the nearest future compared to diversifying into Yuan.

Considering current situation, what are the downsides of holding Yuan?
1. Yuan might loose about 2-4% of its value based on antecedents.
2. Liquidity of their currency still posses more problems
3. Cost associated with diversification

I believe Yuan currency will appreciate by more than 10-15% going forward therefore increasing our reserve by that amount. Wide speculation of Yuan floating currency, high economic growth, creditor country with large current account surpluses, lower public debt as a percentage of GDP, high investors’ confidence in China will contribute to the strengthening of Yuan and the realization of the above figure.
Compared to other global currencies including British pound, European Euro, the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar; considering the risk, political climate and growth of their respective economy, I think the Yuan offers the best benefits. I did not include gold, because its not a country currency.

Ibime:
Just to add that any revaluation of the undervalued yuan is beneficial to the holder and not vice-versa.

I agree with you bro. Revaluation of the yuan can only strenghten our currency and not the other way around. The Yuan is currently pegged against the US dollars because this helps their exports. Currently, the US, british, french are pushing China to float their currency. Based on this wide sentiments and speculation, its only a matter of time before China cave in and float their currency or allow it to revaluate at more than 15%. If the Yuan is allowed to float, it can only go up against any other currency considering their consistence surplus current account, positive Balance of Payment (BOP), high FDI into the country and high investors confidence. I think this is a welcome development, Kudos to the CBN governor on this.

At least he's spending his money on wrist watches to motivate his teamates. What about those who have more than him, but cannot spare a penny just to improve the livelihood of their fellow citizen? In respective of how the man decide to spend his money, he's doing it to elevate what he believes in and i think that idea should be welcome and supported.

The guy heads a not for profit foundation thats sitting on, or will be sitting on over $36 billion. I'm pretty sure our economy can utilize some of these money. I think this is a welcome development, and we should all support it.

Why should I vote for Asuje?

Responding to your main question, best state to live within US (not America) - that i'm not sure. This is because that will depend on a lot of yardsticks. I currently live in H-Town and I can comment on the weather, cost of living, social atmosphere, health care

Houston during the summer time is very hot and humid. I also think California during the summer time is hotter than Houston. During the winter, Houston weather happens to be one of the best within US. It hardly snow in Houston, and you're not going to hear about volcano eruption of any sorts as well. However, our worst nightmare happens to be those hurricanes that happen around Gulf Coast area every year. I hope Katrina, Ike, Rita refresh your memory.  

Cost of living is lower in comparison to some states including California, New York, Maryland, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta, pennsylvania, Virginia. On the other hand, Houston cost of living is higher than some other states including Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas. Cost of good one bedroom apartment complex in Houston can range between $400 - 2500 depending on the area and your taste. Minimum wage in Houston is also $7.25/hr

Social atmosphere is also splendid and accommodating considering vast amount of Nigerians and other diverse people that lives within the city, different thriving industry, beautiful clubs, pubs, lounges and malls.

Houston happens to have one of the best health care systems within the nation and the world. Memorial Hermann Hospital, M.D Henderson, Methodist Hospital, St Luke’s, can attest to the stats. Also, the city has one of the highest levels of nursing homes within the country. Therefore, there is high demand for healthcare practitioner including nursing assistants.
 
I’ve lived in Houston for the past 10 years and I’ve enjoyed every bit of my life here. I think if you move here, your problem of high cost of living will be solved.  If you plan to go back to school, the school will also be cheaper compare to California and you can do that with less burden.

Sun of god:
TURAI = ANOTHER ABACHA = A DEVIL - The little reputation the man built over decades has been destroyed in weeks.

Should 150 million people be blaiming Turai for their Chaos, or should we be blaiming our Law makers and those executioners for not doing their job. Instead of blaiming her, why not blame those people responsible for the stewardship of NIgerian affairs.

debosky:
All quiet on the thread. . . .nothing interesting happening in your lives?

Which do you think gives better career opportunities - working for a manufacturing/producing company (e.g oil and gas producers - Total, Exxon, or Petrochemicals e.g Ineos, Petroplus and the like) or working for the EPC companies such as Atkins, Foster Wheeler, KBR, etc?

I've had a few discussions with people about this with varying views so please share yours.

I believe working for Production Company like Exxon, Ineos gives better leverage going forward for reasons below.

1. Production companies offer better experience. When you work for Production Company, you are exposed to the both plant design and operation aspect of the industry, while consulting firms like Foster Wheeler, KBR, Shaw only exposes you to the design aspect of the business. Even though working for consulting firm, you do get plant visit which exposes you to some plant optimization and operation which does not equate to the tantamount exposure you get while working for production firm. Although to get ahead in this industry, you need both experiences. Most organization values your operational experience more than your conceptual design experience. They might not even hire you if you don't have that operational experience.

2. I'm of the opinion that these production companies have more opportunities within, in comparison to consulting firms. For example, it is so easy to transition to business positions including budgeting, scheduling, estimating, purchasing, trading … with production company because they will have more and better open position, easy access to those positions and training program for easy transition in comparison to those consulting firms.

3. Production company also gives better job stability in comparison to consulting firms. Consulting firms are always at the helms of production firm for projects and if projects continue to remain unviable, that means no work for their workers. End results will be layoffs

I'm beginning to agree with that speculation
There was a CNN report couple of days ago that stated that Nigerian president is dead.
Why is it that these people (government, Northerner’s, people closer to Yaradua, Yaradua's family) have not really come out openly to discard that rumour and castigate it as part of the onerous crime of western countries to distort our democracy.

If I hear you correctly, in respect of all the atrocity these lunatics have committed, including embezzlement of the highest order, corruption, et, all they should be pardon and freed?

Really, on what ground?

People should be made to face the rouse of the law if you abuse it or not leave up to the expectation of it.

grandstar:
No, he will not liquidate the banks. He plans to sell them to foreigners which is unwise.

The reason why it is unwise is that the foriegn banks do not care about the country. They are more interested in making profits.

I disagree with you.
Selling these banks to foreign coy is the way to go

1. We will get healthy competition
Majority of those foreign banks or investment companies vying for the acquisition of these banks are either number 1 or 2 (in terms of market share) in their current territory. These foreign coy structure their business strategy / goal to attain and retain major market share either no. 1 or 2 positions in every country they operate in. If they cannot within their time frame achieve their goal of being the best or second best, they’ll have to exit that market with their exit strategy in the back burner. If these coy do get permission to operate in our country, end result will be healthy competition between them and our top banks. At the end of the day, consumer will have the upper hand.
2. This will bring increased foreign direct investment, foreign expertise and technology into the country.
3. This move will also improve our global presence in the world of mergers and acquisition, and all the positive features that revolves around it.


Selling these banks to local bank is not healthy and this might put us back in the same hole.

1. These local banks will get more monopoly power and this is not good for the market.
2. They’ll get too big to utilize and optimize resources within their reach, will not maximize ROI properly. The reason why we’re in this hole in the first place
3. There will be no competition if it’s the same set of company that will remain in the market.

@ Dr. Kitaun,

How are you so sure this is the Handy work of Tinubu? The man has a lot to lose as well if the speculation going around proves to be accurate. We all know one way or the other; he will be fingered directly or indirectly. The effect of this accusation is going to have a big detrimental effect on not just Fashola alone come 2011, but the whole Lagos AC caucus. They will have to battle with credibility issue come 2011, which might result in loosing Lagos state to PDP or other political organization. And if this happens, how will Tinubu benefit and continue his reign as godfather of Lagos?

Could this have been the handy work of other political organization that desperately want Lagos at all cost; including throwing the state into chaos couple of month before 2011 election, capitalize on the current feud between incumbent governor and his predecessor to make us believe otherwise.

Could this have anything to do with the speculation that the military might take over in the form of coup, with IBB spearheading it?

So after the truth, whats next? How are they going to going to get those funds back into the government covers? Whats going to happen to those perpetrators? When is just coming out with the truth enough for our democracy? I believe Nigeria, Nigerians and Niger deserve more than this.

The truth bites harder than venom of a rattle snake. More power to Abubakar Umar

I am sure Soludo will be the next governor of Anambra state in spite of all these cheap publicity stunt. Didn't the UBA just purchased new Jet? He was one time among the big man running the affairs of the country. How come we're not probing where he got the money from to purchase his new Jet?

Talk about misplaced priority

blingg:
i wonder when nigeria would focus a little more on renewable energy, ther are so many nigerians in the diaspora that have come up with viable models on renewable energy. our overdependency on fossil fuels is a very myopic approach

I wonder what effect this approach will have on our food product.

citizenY:
@ COURAGE

1) WHY DO YOU WANT TO IMPORT WHAT YOU HAVE?

2) WHY DON'T YOU REFINE AND EXPORT?

3) HAVE YOU READ WHERE GOVT MAKES 106% PROFIT ON LOCALLY REFINED PETROL PRICING?

4) WHERE HAS OIL WINDFALL EVER TAKEN US TO IN THIS COUNTRY?

MY POSITION


1- ACCESS TO FUNDS WILL ONLY LIBERATE THE THIEVING INDUSTRY IN NIGERIA

2) GOVT WANTS TO MAINTAIN THE THIEVING INDUSTRY WITH THE SUBSIDY TO BE REMOVED, BUT IT DOES NOT EXIST ANYWAY

3) GOVT SHOULD DELAY DEREGULATION( WHATEVER THAT MEANS) AND PUT OUR REFINERIES TO WORK.

4) BALANCE OF PAYMENT IS IMPROVED WHEN YOU ENHANCE EXPORT AND PRODUCE WHAT YOU NEED AT HOME.

@ citizen Y
I'm not saying we should not refine our own crudeoil. All i'm simply saying is that to achieve and enjoy the real proceeds of deregulation, you need many player. Competition needs to intensify. Companies have to see a need and appetite to build a refinery. Keep in mind also that Building a refinery is not a joke. To build a simple refinery which only includes (Distillation column, Hydrotreaters, Fluid Catalytic crackers, Alkylation Unit, depending on our specs) will cost above $1billions. This also depends on the capacity. How many of these players can afford that kind of money currently?. Also if you going to invest that kind of money in a country (Nigeria) with high political risk, the economics have to be real robust to convince management. Where and how are they going to raise that kind of money? Don't also forget that it might take about 3 years+ before the product come onstream. How does the company make money on the short run? They have to import to satisfy current demand.

msaalli:
@courage89,

We have been educated severally that "deregulation" is in our best interests in the long term but very harmful in the short and medium terms so I am yet to understand why some people are so eager to push it down unilaterally on us.

What happens to our interests in the terms before the expected fruits germinate and what are the assurances that the fruits will germinate and not get caught up in the volatile screen we call the future. Not with the unpredictability of technology and advancement. Are we then to suffer in vain?

What are the pallatives to enable us bear the short and middle-term inconveniences?

I agree with your assertion. Its going to get tough before it get better, but everything boils down to our regulators. How hard can they enforce the rule of law and allow efficient market to reign, and destroy status quo of monopolistic market. If they take the right approach, we should not suffer too much. By deregulating the industry, you increase importing licence mainly to increase competition. This will on the short run (6months - 1year) increase gasoline prices because of the economics and attract many more players, but consistency will be the problem. Going forward when competition intensifies, companies objective will have to change from making huge profit to operating with marginal or no profit at all. Thats when we benefit.

msaalli:
What are the assurances that the so-called deregulation would not play into the hands of insensitive foreign capitalists who care only about their profits and who would merely continue to exploit us the way they have been doing in the upstream sector with the active connivance of corrupt public officials?

We all read about illegal refineries in the creeks. In the mood of amnesty, can we not harness the brains and capabilities of these boys to improve our refining sector first before we then talk of deregulation by which time, anybody benefiting from the deregulation has no choice but to make and spend and retain the money here in Nigeria?

I don't think we have any assurance because nobody have the crystal balls to forecast the future. But our current situation doesn't serve us better as well. If we don't regulate the industry right now when the price of crude oil is hovering at $80/bbl, when do we do it? Do we wait till the price get to $145 or $250. Our best strategy will be to deregulate right now, so that we can find alternatives including building and operating refinery in our own country. At least this option will remove paying for logistics, foreign taxes, foreign royalties, and the end result will be reduced gasoline/diesel prices when crude prices trend higher.

I think deregulation is the way to go for so many reasons

1. Improves competition
I believe deregulating the industry will allow market forces to take over, and eventually drive down the price. This will only happen if our government increases the level of importing licences, and allow these companies to compete like they are suppose to rather than letting them monopolize and control the industry.

2. Provide the incentives for building refineries in the country.
When there is competition, majority of these companies will want to modify their business model to improve their competitive advantage. One option will be to integrate their importing and marketing venture with refining. This will allow them to cut cost (logistics, foreign taxes and foreign royalties) and refine their own product. Deregulation will help mitigate some of the investment risk, and make project economics achievable.

3. Liberate other industry
Depending on the kind refinery companies decide to implement (Simple, comlex or very complex), cheap products like heavy Naphtha, fuel oil, Heavy fuel, coke, sulfur, asphalt, will be produced. All these products are feedstocks/raw materials for producing other products that will help industrialize our country.

4. Create employment
When there is competition, more people will be employed. Building and operating refineries, other plant will also improve employment problem in the country.

5. Improve our Balance of Payment
The country has embarked on continous BOP deficit for the past years. When there is competition, and companies begin to refine the country's crude. The long term effect of this will be massive surplus from our current account (reduce our import and possibly improving our export) going forward. Overall effect will be positive change in our Balance of payment (BOP) which will help us in attracting more Foreign Direct investment.

I guess i have not been following Anambra politics. But please, can the followers of Ngige and Peter Obi share with us why they deserve the post.

Please, can someone point me to where i can retrieve Nigeria's current Balance of Payment (2009/2008 BOP), or you can post the information here.
Thanks in advance

Please, can someone point me to where i can get access to Nigeria's current Balance of Payment (BOP) record, or post the information here.
Thanks in advance

larez:
Here is something for Nigerians to think about. All the hoolaboolala about The North needing Niger Delta is about to become history. And I am here being the first to lay claim that the North will be the first secessionist area to get out of Nigeria. I'll explain why, Have you ever heard of the Trope-Fische process? have you heard about the large amounts of Coal deposits being discovered in the North? Are you aware that with Coal comes Natural gas? Are you also aware that natural gas can be turned into petrol and diesel easily today? Why do you think nobody is building regular refineries in the world anymore? Do you know that the refinery necessary for what I described costs about 1/6th of a regular refinery to produce the same amount of refined products that are even cleaner and more efficient than traditional methods?

While the South is busy making all that nise about "oyel", the North is quietly importing their drilling rigs and negotiating licenses with the Russians to build the trope-fische refineries. Y'all will be taken by surprise when they declare independence and blow up every oil infrastructure in the south, right after they complete the pipeline that will send their gas more efficiently and cheaper to Europe. We Southerners are nothing but a bunch of hot-air blowers. By the way, When the pipeline is completed, Southerners will have to negotiate with the North and pay transport fees to even allow gas to go through the North. And you know what else? Gas is the future and not many people will be interested in dirty crude anymore in about a decade with this trope-fisch process gaining ground. How's all that for a wake-up call?

My guy you're right about Natural Gas being the future, but it is not going to be as a by-product or product of coal. Majority of the people pushing for Natural gas are doing so because its technology emmits less CO/CO2 in comparison to Coal gasification technology that emmits 50% more CO/CO2. Because of the problematic expectation of CO and CO2, i doubt if coal gasification project will ever take off. The demand for the off ground Natural Gas on the other hand will outpace the supply going forward. This is the reason why the south will continue its relevancy when compared to the north.

Women are necessary problems. Don't try to figure them out because you cannot, just learn how to deal with their problems.

It is possible. But not until the government deregulate the power sector, and provide incentives to subsidies and attract investors in this arena.

Power should be his highest priority for now.

They have to refine the bitumen first. They're (government) not ready to build asphalt refinery to cushion that shortfalls, because of the cost and its little ROI

RIP Gani