₦airaland Forum

Hoelujohn:
What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

This is revealing.

Honestly, until recently I never thought LP can get 10% in Ogun, Osun and Oyo.

PO may just be the next Nigeria president

[quote author=FriendofGod post=120910422][/quote]Who told you that Obi didnt bulid infrastructure?

Obi built more infrastructure than Tinubu.

Tinubu is the only governor since 1999 that spent 8 years with constructing a single hospital

garfield1:
Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

Boss, I use to think this way until I studied the trend in South West results over the years.

LP is likely to get 25% in some south west states especially Ogun, Oyo and Ondo. These may be difficult but it is possible and the reason is simple

1. South West has always been liberal. They have never voted overwhelmingly for one candidate and I dont see that changing.
2. South West is the most dilute zone of the 6 geo-political zone. This means that they have a higher number of non-natives than other zone. Bulk of these non-natives are from south south, north central and south east.
3. Christian sentiment. Aside ethnic conideration, the biggest factor that will likely influence voters choice in south west in religion. This may give Obi an edge especially in the Ondo/Ekiti corridor who are predominatly christians.

wegevv:
Key takeaways according to these adjusted results:

- None of the candidates hit the spread despite adjustment to remove undecided/undisclosed but LP/Obi was the closest with 22 states as well as FCT

- LP have the most number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). But they also seem to have the best chance of hitting the spread as they just missed it in Gombe and Kwara

- APC have the least number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). Tinubu got the second highest spread with 18 states (including the unpolled Zamfara).

- PDP only hit the spread in 2 states in the south (Osun, Oyo and Bayelsa). Atiku had the lowest spread out of the main three candidates

- APC and PDP missed the spread in FCT. They need to hit 25% in FCT to be able to win in the first ballot

Cc:
Digitron
Penguin2
Eriokanmi
Garfield1
Nlfpmod
Seun
Trollronaldo

It is a difficult one indeed. My fear is that LP will be vulnerable if we go into a run off.

An LP vs APC run off favours APC and
An LP vs PDP run off also favours PDP.

The only feasible path to LP 24 state is

SE: All SE (5)
SW: All except (Osun) (5)
SS: All SS (6)

NC: Nassarawa, Kogi, Benue and Plateau (4)
NE: Adamawa and Taraba and Gombe
NW: Kaduna

States that may produce surprises are Niger, Gombe and Borno. I have seen increased activities in these states recently and I am hoping for a 'miracle'.

JAMO84:
Iyabo Ojo is dating one hundred years old Igbo ancestor, she need his money to continue her flamboyant lifestyle.


Under Pitobi in Anambra:

13 months Doctors strike

8 months Asu strike

Poverty from 25% to 56%

No LG election for 7 years

Refused to declare account in Panama

Aide caught with 250m state money in Lagos

Chased non indigen out of civil service

PITOBI IS THE BIGGEST SCAM THIS COUNTRY HAS SEEN, SINCE MMM.

Tinubu is the only governor in Nigeria since 1999 that did not contact one hospital for 8 years.

His biggest achievement in the health sector was the conversion of the land for Ajah general hospital to a private estate.

Tinubu masterminded the killing of Northerners during his time.

Tinubu is the chief suspect in the murder of Engr Funsho Williams.

Tinubu has perpetually worked against the interest of Yourubas just for personal reasons

No sane person will consider Tinubu as an option

All these governors likes creating problems for ordinary people.

The bank branches are taking instructions from CBN.

Go and face CBN and leave the ordinary people alone

You are not normal.

It is igbopbobia that will kill you. You single out an individual from over 50 man team because of his tribe.

You are a disgrace to your education

Propaganda will not give Tinubu one extra vote

nameo:
Lolz.... you mean a sample size of 774,000 people?

Lolz....again.

Bros, it means you know nothing of polling then. No polling sampling size can ever get to that level i.e it is impossible to do and even negates the very essense/reason of polling. Even in the U.S. where the population is almost twice ours, the sampling size is usually between 1000-3000 persons(Gallpoll usually uses just 1000 persons).

This is statistics. As long as the sample is weighted(to mirror the voting society) so that it is representative and is RANDOM, any increase in numbers would not affect the overall polling outcome. This is statistics 101.

I am not well versed with the methodology of this particular polling, altho i see that their sampling was both random and weighted, i will accept the outcome cos it aligns with ALL other polling done by EVERY polling organisation at various times within this election campaign cycle(some even repeated more than once). It is almost impossible in statistics for you to have different outcomes if different "experiments" is done repeatedly using similar methodology.

The highly expected last NOI/ANAP poll will not be different.

From a data perspective, Obi is expected to win the coming Presidential elections. What Obi and his supporters do with that is another matter entirely

I understand they are following standard polling criteria but Nigeria political space is too complex. Guys should do something different to come up with a polling method that captures our pecularities

Even though I am a stunch Obedient and a firm believer that Obi will win, this poll is faulty.

Nigeria is too diverse to relly on a 1000 response to guage the mood of the nation. Any poll that wants to be taken seriously must gather data from at least 1000 people in each LGA which is about 774,000 people.

That is the only way to have a reliable poll

If PO wins SS by 50% and SE by 70% and turn out in both region averages 50%.

Peter obi will win this election in the first ballot.

garfield1:
Guy,voter sensitization is not mobilization or grassroot.it is self deception.you dont sway voters that way.lp in crs is broke.have you guys gone to umon island,ekong anaku?

I can't give an yes or No answer now.

But from my last conversation with the team. They have covered more than 80% of CRS.

Again, this is not LP.

If PO was relying on LP structure, he would have lost out since October

It is only on Nairaland that Tinubu is considered a leading presidential candidate.

Tinubu will not win any state in the south outside of the SW.

He will not win more 7 states in the North West.

Tinubu presidency is a creation of the media and propaganda.

Fact from the elderstateman.

Vote Peter Obi for President

Garfield1,

APC will only win Kaduna and Keebi in North West and will not get 25% in three of the seven states.

Bookmark this comment

garfield1:
My brother,you sabi.this is what I've been telling obidients but they insult me and feel I am lying.there are so many in crs that are anti obi.so many rural areas are untouched.if obi is to win,it will be narrowly except Lp does exactly what you suggested.cc aiel123, penguin2, Fibonacci88,buddha3,mrvitalis, immaculatejoe, Digitron

Lol, the problem is that most people equate LP popularity to Peter Obi.

This movement was planned.

Aside from LP, there is an 'organisation' that has been driving voter's sensitization and this group is highly to Peter Obi. They have over 120 branches over cross river state alone. Controlling over 75% of the population.

My G, evn Ben Ayade is Obident.

Bassey Otu will take the governorship but the presidential election is settled.

You guys can fight for 25% which we will deny you

Hopium:
You should be crying because:

1. Pandora has never campaigned in the SE on a Monday

2. APC shifting the rally in Imo means IPOB and ESN are in control of the state

3. Your papa, mama, and pikin were told like slaves by Ekpa who lives in Finland to stay indoor, and being the coward that they are, they complied.

4. Same Ekpa has vowed no election in SE, and your guess is as good as mine, being the cowards they are, they will comply.

Your eye go begin clear two days to election when IPOB+ESN start enforcing the sit-at-home policy.

If you dey reside yigbo land and haven't ran like a headless chicken to "no man's land" , start stockpiling this week. Una dey long thing. Ekpa you slave master has said na for one week una no go see the sun. No talk say I no warn you ooo.

There was no IPOB before APC. IPOB is a pet project of BAT.

He is the one funding Simon Ekpa

Trollronaldo:
If you bring Jesus Christ to contest for presidential election in Nigeria, he can still lose the election. People will still find a reason to vote their tribesman ahead of Jesus Christ or they might prefer to vote their religious person.

See, there are a lot of people in this country that will vote Tinubu ahead of Jesus Christ. They don't care about who Jesus Christ or his character.

Nigerians are mad people, don't underestimate the power of stupidd people in large gathering.

Forget all these your worries, God is in control.

Vote Peter Obi.

Ask those around you to Vote for him.

Talk about him on social media, your church, friends, office, bar, club, etc.

Leave the rest for God.

If he wins, good.

If he doesnt win, we join hands together with whoever wins to build a great country.

God bless Nigeria

lazynairalander1:
E be like I will enter this obidients train oh

You are welcome bro.

We are one family, with strong passion for the growth of Nigeria.

Vote Peter Obi for president

[quote author= post=120883527]Tinubu will not see 25% in Cross River go and mark it.[/quote]If we cross our "t"s and dot out "I"s, we can make it happen.

My fear is vote buying in rural areas

No wonder everybody in APC is against PO.

I don't blame them. If I am am APC member, I will be worried too.

How can a party that was resurrected 8 months ago be this strong.

Vote PO for president.

Don't reward failure, Reject APC

garfield1:
I was there live.I told you guys that atiku is finished in crs and prince otu is the next gov...crs is between tinubu and obi... Cc penguin2, kyase,fergie001, donphilopus

See the way he avoided Jagaban.

PO will take CRS followed by BAT.

We will work hard to deny APC 25%

ebbo:
This is because of the fake internet polls that Igbos have been dishing out na, projecting that Peter obi will win the election.

So na Igbo get Bloomberg?

Nobody has ever said Kwankwaso cannot win or Sowero cannot win or Adebayo cannot win or Kola Abiola cannot win.

It is only PO.

Like Ghandi once said,

First, they ignore you,
Then they laugh at you,
Then they fight you,
Then you win!!!

Vote Labour party and Peter Obi for President.
The best man for the job.

Obi is the man

Cc: Garfield1

We dey your domain.

At least BAT has won one poll. Congratulations to him. 😂😂😂😂

Garfield1


See wetin I dey see ooo.

I am laughing 😂😀😂

caleboxylic:
We are just 12 days and this guy will get the 29%
He allocated to AA in Enugu. Very funny analysis. In addition, the turnout in east north central and south south will double that of 2019.
Let me tell you for the first time, east will Record minimum of 80% turnout come 25th.

I am just laughing. As we speak, PDP have not had one campaign for Atiku in Enugwu State.

BAT will come second because the sitting governor is supporting him.

Asgard13:
Obi and his vice are well exposed ..and nice.

But those his supporters are completely opposite of “ reasonable sapiens “

Una fit insult all Una like., who cares..

Una na Dey major reason Obi will come third.. or maybe fourth..

You can’t bully Nigerians..

25 is here Una go learn am mean..

Are you voting obi or his supporters.

Will you refuse the services of a qualified surgeon because his child (who has nothing to do with his skill) is rude?

EKOSuperior:
Can you out 100k for it?

Governorship or presidential

garfield1:
I like your analysis and scientific methodology.
The poor performance and gaffes by tinubu will affect him among educated and enlightened neutrals and people in other parties.most of those that voted buhari and supported apc are still with tinubu but most of those that supported atiku are now with obi or kwankwaso.those that will vote tinubu are already determined to vote him no matter what.tinubu will find it difficult to get new voters in se ss but he will get in sw because of ethnicity and growing anger against north.in many northern rural areas wit illiterate voters,the party structure will easily sway new voters compared to other parties due to structure and reach...
C) which is inability to recite the Qur'an is exaggerated.it is a minor factor afterall atiku also cannot recite it and atiku is viewed as a liberal Muslim.the mm ticket is attractive to core or radical muslims.shettima fanaticism makes up for this..
While tinubu will have problem getting new voters,fortunately those new voters are not going to obe candidate but three which waters down everything.


Talking of niger state,I agree with you.while I do not base my analysis mainly on party structure and it is getting deemphasized,it will still play a role esp in rural areas.I'll come to that later...
I agree with party faithfuls but I do not agree that those who perceive him in b are those who perceive him as poor and incorruptible.I think they are mostly what you call buharists.most of them are muslims and will rather support the next available radical Muslim which means kwankwaso first then tinubu and atiku.obi will gain few from this pool.it will be 40k,30k,20k,10k respectively.
I think religious sentiments should be divided from ethnic sentiments and each has 150,000k.in religious sentiments,all available polls esp from Bantu and stears shows that muslims in nc prefer tinubu first before atiku and kwankwaso and niger Muslims are fanatical.so tinubu will take half which is 75,000...talking of ethnicity,none of the candidates is from niger.kwankwaso and atiku are fulanis and fulanis are micro minorities in niger.Nupes and gwaris are the largest tribes.obj defeated buhari here in 2003 which means ethnicity isn't a big factor.religion is a far bigger factor.but let us share the 150k each for the three muslims...
You said non indigenes are 50,00) and all will go to obi.this is not true.many non indigenes are yorubas and most won't go obi.infact,others are northerners.except you mean southern settlers but let's give obi 25,000.not all Christians will vote obi.a few will vote atiku and Tinubu but let's give obi 90%...
From that result sheet,apc still won and nnpp was second and you know nnpp is attractive to fanatic muslims like kano,katsina,bauchi,niger.again,that area is in suleja and suleja has many Christians.total votes was about 2000 and lp got 300 which is 12% which is low meaning if total votes was like 1000 lp will have like 100 or so and less is Muslim dominated areas...one,this shows that apc is still the dominant or preferred party with or without buhari on the ballot.there was a rerun election in magama and apc was excluded yet apc supported apga to win.this is where party structure is important.
Theres nothing like atiku brand.he has no followers or core supporters like buhari or kwankwaso so I'll reduce it to 25,000...

Final result will be tinubu 320,000 atiku 200,000
Obi 10,000,
Kwankwaso 100,000

Well, I think there are two assumptions which you made in your analysis which I diagree with.

1. First is that Tinubu is the first choice for Muslims in Niger before Atiku and Kwankwanso. I dont agree with this assumption. Anybody who is voting based on religious sentiment is likely going to be a fantatics and a there is no way a fantatics will see a Tinubu as a better Muslim to Atiku and Kwankwanso.

2. Those who voted Buhari will remain with APC. This is unlikely to happen. There is nothing exciting about Tinubu to help him keep the Buhari 600k votes. Again, if you check 2011, 2015, 2019 election, buhari has consistely gotten 600k in Niger even when he contested under CPC in 2011. So, there is no way Tinubu or APC will inherit the entire votes.

Your reference to ObJ defeating buhari doesn't count because i dont consider all election conducted before 2015 as election

Odii is likely to win Ebonyi guber.

PO has no challenger for the presidential election