₦airaland Forum

garfield1:
I am the most objective apc fan here.try and do a research.I gave benue plateau and fct to lp but not by a wide margin.nasarawa is tight but apc or lp will win it.apc will likely win niger.atiku will likely not win any state in nc.it is between tinubu and obi

The flaw in your analysis is that base your analysis on one thing "PARTY STRUCTURE".

There are three factors working against BAT.

1. The poor performance of APC generally.
2. TInubu's consistent gaffes.
3. His perception in the core north as a fake Muslim after his inability to recite some fundamental parts of the Holy Quoran in Kaduna.

So, it is difficult to sell BAT to common voters who are not party stakeholders.

As a strategist, let me take do a bit of numerical analysis, if you look at 2019 presidential election in Niger,

Buhari scored 618,000 votes and
Atiku scored 218,000 votes.

Now, let look at the LIKELY groups that made up the Numbers,

For Buhari 600k voters, his voters are mostly from
a. Party Faithfuls (200k)
b. Those who see Buhari as pro-poor, incorruptible and the best candidate on the balot (100K)
c. Religious and Ethnic sentiments (300K)

For Atiku's 200k, his voters are mostly from
a. THose who believe in the Atiku brand - 50k
b. Anti-APC Sentiments - 50k
c. Christian sentiments - 50k
d. Non-natives- 50k

To make my analysis easier, let us assume that the number of voters will be the same in 2023.
Looking at the Buhari's Votes.
a. Tinubu will take the first 200k, which is party faithful.
b. Kwankwanso and Obi will share the second group, (Kwankwanso will take 70k, Obi 30k)
c. Religious and ethnic sentiments group will go to Atiku and Kwankwaso (Atiku 250k, Kwankwaso 50k)

For the Atiku Votes.
Atiku will maintain the first group (those who believe in his brand)- 50k
Kwankwanso/obi/atiku will share the second group (Anti-APC group) - Kwankwanso 10k, Obi 10k and Atiku 30k.
Obi will Take the Christain sentiments- 50k
Obi will take the Non-natives -50k

Summarily, I am looking at

Atiku 330k Votes.
TInubu 200k Votes
Obi 140K
Kwankwaso 130K

Attached below is a result of the last LG election in Niger. Despite how flawed the election was, you could see how much votes NNPP and LP gathered. PDP did not participate

Obaaderemi2:
Lp can not win plateau, benue and Abuja. That party has no structure in those places. I'll remind you after the election.

Lol, you will be shocked that PO has more 'structure' than any of the other two big parties. Like you said, lets wait till 25th when Nigerian go out to Vote

Your bias is obvious and will stop responding to you if you dont want to be objective.

LP will take Plateau, Benue and Abuja and they are going to do it with a wide margin. PDP alone will get 25% in those states

APC will win Kogi and Kwara going head to head with PDP

PDP will win Niger and Nasarawa.

Please note, it is not for three parties to get 25% or more in one state. Thats why you have to prepare your mind for a likely run off between PO and AA

He will win South west sha and come third

omonnakoda:
So why did Peter Obi come to Lagos and refuse to pay homage to the Oba.
He has visited other SW States and paid homage to Obas
Instead he came to Lagos to engage in a street walk,obstructing traffic and causing unfinished hardship for commuters

Is this part of the Lagos is No Man's land agenda of Ibos who insist Lagos is not Yoruba land?
Is this what Lagosians can expect from him if he wins

A formal request to visit the oba was sent to his palace but it was not approved.

What do you want Obi to do?

How many shows has Psquare performed in Yoruba land (including Lagos) in the last year?

[quote author= post=120822236]Otondo I feel your pain keep fooling yourself with Atiku Campaign rally in Lagos[/quote]Boss, Leave these people to live with their dillusion.

You know Nairaland is the only social media that they control. So, here is the only place where they get their therapy.

Lagos is in the bag for Labour Party and they know it.

If they were winning lagos, they will not be threatening people to vote APC.

If the rally today was not a success, APC PCC Spokesman will not be complaining about the crowd and traffic.

Lagosians are for Lagos.

We keep a date for 25th

UnfairLife7:
Hahahahaha

Only if you know abokis will rather vote for stone than vote Nyamuri 😀

Abokis are our biggest supporters.

Watch out

garfield1:
The truth is that you won in the substituted names because the fault was from inec.their server was malfunctioning and you submitted within time.but in this case,you submitted outside the timeline allotted by inec therefore no court will help you.that's one of the reasons I insist that lp can't win

No, it was not outside the timelime.

You know i always admit when we are wrong.

I was in constant communication with Oseloka who was personally managing the process. The list was ready for upload about 72 hours to the deadline but we couldnt upload.

We will get pass this.

As for winning, we are the underdogs no doubt but our chances are better than BAT.

The biggest threat to our victory is Atiku who has taken advantage of the senseless war between LP and APC and now has almos the entire North West in his kitty

garfield1:
Lp agents were present in only 22% of units.it simply means that lp won't be in many units during the real polls...cc Digitron,mrvitalis, penguin2

This is been managed. The truth is we had agents in all the 170k units across the country. However, just like the challenge of every new political party, it took time to get these names and when we wanted to upload them, the INEC server was done.

Unfortunately, we couldnt upload till the timeline elapsed.

we are dealing with it in two ways.

1. We have gone to court to get an injuction compeling INEC to accept the list. LP did this for substituted names and won. We believe we will succed.

2. There is a plan B which i wont disclose here now

Big Energy!

Obi is the man

Yoruba go to the UK, contest the election against British natives and win and nobody makes noise about it. But a man with no known origin, controversial parentage and unknown background wants to force Lagosians to vote for him as their president.

If they want war, we will give it to them

Enugu LP ward to Ward Campaign..... Completed 215 wards tours out of 261 wards

Ward to Ward Voters Sensitizations in Rivers

The Labour Party presidential campaign council (PCC) is driving an ongoing grassroot awareness campaign across the country. This is the final lap of the campaiign as it works toward the victory of its presidential candidate Peter Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed

Kog45:
Kwara Christians is 40% and Kogi should be Christian 50% and Muslim 50%

Kwara is not Ilorin city ooooo.

How is Kogi 50 50

Igala which are 50% of the state are 55% Muslim and 45% Christains
Okuns with 30% of the states are 90% Christains and 10% Muslims
Ebira with 20% of the states 80% muslims and 20% Christains

LP will get 30% of Adamawa voters.

APC is projected to win Adamawa with PDP coming third

Of the 200k, less than 15k has received a dime as salary.

I don't know how he thinks he can control the loyalty of 200k people through cohesion

senatordave1:
I like your sincerity and honesty....it is too late to do anything reasonable.those parties are entrenched in those two states.you csn deny apc 25% in aks but you can deny pdp.pdp will almost certainly win aks...
You can deny pdp 25% in crs but not apc.apc has a good chance of winning.there are so many communities labour have not penetrated and lp can't do that even in one month..
I still insist that labour will struggle in bayelsa.

One thing you underate is the influence of urban voters on rural dwellers. All i need to do to convience my grandpa and grandma is to tell them where to vote. So, you are going to be seeing so many of such things.

I know you are dazzled by the grassroot campaign by APC in Cross river. People are not fools. Many people will vote for APC candidates in other position and vote obi for president.

If it was that simple, a litany of Rochas, Hope Uzodinwa, Osita Izunaso et all would have delivered Imo to APC in 2019.

Akwa Ibom and CRS are sure for LP, the question is what is the margin?

senatordave1:
Obi hasn't penetrated rural akwacross

I agree with you.

Materials for the last phase of sensitisation landed in Akwa Ibom yesterday.

Our volunteers are on course. I agree, it been tasking.

We are also working on getting Margret there at least before the election.

She need to visit Alwa Ibom and Cross river ASAP.

We must deny your BAT and his Adamawa friend 25% in both states 🤣

CASTOSVILLA:
You've come up with your useless sentimental statistics. Go and sit down

I am realist.

Propaganda will not help anyone.

plaindealer:
Obi's personal wealth is in Panama, even obi himself is not denying where he stashes his wealth, but this one is boring me with businesses.

We are talking about A and this one is talking about B.

This is how many of you fail WAEC, you cannot read and comprehend simple English words.

Look elsewhere to dump your frustration.

Nigerian are not voting an ex-drug dealer as president.

Have a good day

There is no state in North West that has up to 15% Christians outside Kadunna.

Kogi has slightly more muslims than Christians.

Kwara has less than 20% christians.

Lets be realistic

plaindealer:
So, we should all be wiser like obi by hiding our money away from Nigeria and avoid paying taxes.

So, without our money here in Nigeria for the government to tax, how are we going to pay salaries, build roads, build hospitals, bridges, fund security and the military to protect you and your family? How?

You people don't think and when you do, you sound like backward cave Stone Age people. This is why they say you people are not socially and culturally developed enough to function in any orderly society.

Obi kept the money he made in Nigeria in Nigeria. You can see it in Fidelity, Access bank, Chams and other businesses where he hold shares. He pays his taxes.

You can also see it in various business across the country where he has interest and pays tax.

However, if you expect him to bring the money he made in UK here so that you can destroy it, it will not work.

As for your blabbing at the end of your post, I don't have time

You want to destroy his hard earn money with stupid policy that has seen our currency go from 200 to 800 in 8 years?

Obi is wiser

senatordave1:
I like the arrangement and methodology but you are being incredibly biased.for ne,obi can't get up to 50,000 in bauchi,borno,yobe.how dare you say obi will get more votes in bauchi and borno than gombe? Obi cannot beat kwankwaso there. What rubbish.the analysis in taraba,Adamawa and gombe are ok.
For nw,obi won't score up to 20,00) in sokoto,katsina,jigawa,kebbi.he won't score more than 100,000 in kano.I am ok with kaduna but tinubu will get 25% in kano...
Obi will likely win plateau and benue but tinubu and atiku will get 25%.tinubu will beat atiku in benue definitely.obi won't see 25% in kwara same as atiku.obi won't get up to 50,000 in niger.nasarawa and kogi is acceptable...
Obi won't score more than 60% in edo and rivers.tinubu will surely get more than 25% in Edo and rivers now that wike is with him.obi might not get 25% in bayelsa.this is obi weakest state.tinubu will win or lose crs narrowly.. All parties will get 25% in delta...
Apart from anambra and enugu obi can't get 80% in any se state.tinubu and atiku will get 25% 25% in the other three states or one or two of them or worst case 20%.
Finally tinubu will meet the 25% spread,atiku will miss out.

Garfield, what happened to your account?

Your analysis was spot on although your boas for BAT was still visible.

I will respond to this later.

Well done my G

ElSudani:
Of course, the PDP of 2019 are now in four different camps.

Same as Buhari is no longer on the ticket

senatordave1:
I repeat,lp is not even in consideration in bayelsa.you overrate obi popularity.I know how long it took for apc to gain ground in bayelsa..
In any case,bayelsa is the last place for any opposition party to thrive in ss.it doesnt favour opposition, the terrain alone will demoralize lp...you even contradict yourself by saying obi is wavering in crs and aks.if he is weak in akwa cross,then he is finished in bayelsa

I am a member of PO strategy and research committee for SE/SS.

My close pal is leading the grassroots mobilization in the state.

We have foot soilders in every community and the target is to get to every household before February 20th.

As for Akwa Ibom and Cross river, we are sure of Winning both. However, our target to deny both APC and PDP any hope of 25% in both states

senatordave1:
But brass and nembe voted buhari na.bsyelsans dont care about such sentiments anymore.who even told you those places vote? Votes are allocated

Yes now, why wont they vote Buhari for a sabotour like Atiku?

As for vote allocation, lets see how it will happen.

APC is not in consideration in BAyelsa, it is a two way battle between LP and PDP.

ElSudani:
What division in APC? A united PDP couldn't do it but somehow a splinter group from the PDP is going to defeat the APC? Keep fooling yourself.

The situation today was not the same as 2019