₦airaland Forum

dayokanu:
I thought you have argued in the past that Se are the mos populous in Nigeria if everyone returns to his home state.

Now divide the IGR by the "NEW" population of the SE?
Yes. We dont need to coerce SS to join us like some like to do. Even in the Biafra times, Those were the first targets

Its simply because they are looking to leech on the awoof oyel money

What we generate in the SW is enough for us, we are not a brood of parasites who seek to attach ourselves to others either by force or by begging.

Dont worry Ekiti and Osun are our "Liability" We speak the same language and we are Glad to carry them along. They are our brothers fellow sons of Oduduwa. We wont go begging people from Other places who dont know us just to tap Oyel money

In the Cocoa times these states with Ondo carried the whole SW along too.

My brother, the sentiment is much appreciated.

If my Yoruba were better i'd say something appropriate, like, "Odua agbe wa o"

If is even funny to me. You know that most of the oil in Delta State is in Itsekiri? So I really wonder what would happen if everyone starts claiming parts of the SS as their own.

What is interesting to me is that the same Rivers Igbo whose oil you want to appropriate to fund your low-IGR SE zone, won't they be angry at seeing their money spent elsewhere?

Not to talk of grand delusions of spending Akwa Ibom or Bayelsa oil money in the SE 

dayokanu:
Thanks for pasting

So we can see that SW even minus Lagos is way ahead .

I can now understand the fixation of SE folks with annexing the SS. The states there are just slightly better than  Boko Haram Havens like Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa, Gombe etc

You've nailed it.

To be quite honest, the #s are reassuring. SW can stand on its own, without annexing anyone.

We have 4 strong states (Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo), one weak one (Osun) and only one liability (Ekiti).

Anyway, if naija scatters, I extend an open invitation to Kwara and Edo to join the squad. Though judging from those IGR #s for those two states, they'll be fine (or OK at least) whichever way they decide.

I also extend my invitation to Itsekiri, of course.

Eh, looks like the IGR and FAAC columns come from a 2010 CBN report. But the document I'm reading is a report written by someone else.

DK, sorry, I meant upper right. Running on less sleep than i'd like  

Anyways:

https://i43.tinypic.com/sphop0.png

So even ignoring Lagos, SW is #3 in IGR (after the SS and NW)

The interesting thing too is that the female NLer I met is actually pretty damn attractive. Lol. I liked her NL personality, so that was kind of a cool combination.

@DK: It is on page 3 of that spreadsheet.

See upper left of here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&key=0AsNUaGBnBF1KdFpfNEVNNDYtSzBhRk1HT2tuRDlMUFE&hl=en_US&gid=2

I'll screen capture an image and post it here in a sec. . . (unless someone beats me to it)

Anyway, to conclude, the North can maintain the status quo just by increasing taxation to replace whatever is lost from oil.

So yes, it can stand alone

Men lie, women lie, but numbers (properly interpreted and analyzed) do not.

Imagine that the only state in the SE with respectable IGR would be Abia.

Osun State (the second weakest SW state financially) and Aregberascal have higher IGR than every state in the SE aside from Abia  

Na wa o

Nice post, Danjohn. Mind uploading to a spreadsheet somewhere for download?


@Topic: Honestly, I am supremely impressed by the propoganda here. Little did I know that the SE zone has the 2nd lowest IGR in the entire country!

This lumping together of the SS and SE was also clever.

What are the odds that Akwa Ibom for example would want to join its oil wealth with its impoverished neighbors? Hehe

Unless they are mugu.

There is a good chance you can grab most of Rivers and Delta North. But if by chance Rivers decides not to join, ya'll are in the same situation the north is in.

Bliss4Lyfe:
The truth is the East has a large quantity of oil and gas reserves untapped. The east contributes largely to the IGR of the Southwest and North as we all know.

All those investment will be pulled out and alot of traffic will be diverted to the east. For one, the confusion of going straight from the UK to Lagos before east, will be out of the window and likewise for easterners based up North. I will no longer worry about buying or building houses else where but the east.


The list goes on and on.

FWIW, investments  don't "pull themselves" out. Unless you mean someone will destroy the business he has built rather than selling it off.

Regarding contribution of Igbos to North and SW, so long as their contributions can be replaced by whoever replaces those who leaves, no net loss.

Bliss4lyfe, I am not sure if you are trying to fool me or yourself. The data simply doesn't back you up. SE without a portion of the SS to latch onto is as bad as the north. Only Abia State generates any IGR of significance. The rest are in terrible situations.

Amazingly enough, the NW and NC zones generate far more IGR than the SE. So the question perhaps should be, can the SE stand alone?

I've run into two NLers before in real life kind of randomly.

For the SW, would need to make up roughly a N175 billion shortfall (would actually be quite a bit less, but let's just use this for now.)

Assuming conservatively a population of 50 million in the SW, this means taxes need to go up by $23 a head. Which I think is dead easy to accomplish.

In a nutshell, the fears of economic disaster after splitting up Nigeria are overstated. We'll all just need to more aggressively raise revenue through taxation (except for the SS and anyone who gets to latch onto them and their oil wealth.)

NL server went down, so this additional comment didn't get posted:


Truth be told, I'm not sure it makes sense to pick on the North alone.

At least judging by IGR #s, the SE is no more viable than the North is.

SE is banking on being able to latch onto oil-rich Rivers State (and I guess possibly also Akwa Ibom).

Without those revenue sources, it'll face the same challenges the North does.


BTW, another thing to keep in mind is that if you do the math, even if all federal allocations to the North disappear tomorrow, assuming a population of roughly ~80 million in northern Nigeria, will "only" need to raise taxes by $42/year per person to make up the difference. Which really shouldn't be that hard to accomplish, yes?

Only problem I have with JW is that they seem to alienate themselves from non-JH extended family in certain ways

But overall it seems a fine religion to me.

Another thing to keep in mind is that probably most of the federal allocation accruing to the North is stolen anyways by some big guys connected to the state governments.

So does it really matter if that small clique doesn't have access to any more money to steal? Will this materially impact the life of your average guy? Probably not.

So isn't quite as bad as some are making out.

t

This thread seems timely and relevant:

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-798788.0.html

I think that the North would be able to maintain the status quo, at least? Would just need to find a new revenue source (essentially raising taxes/IGR substantially.)

Let's put this way. . . at least purely from the perspective of "How much money do we need to make up from what we don't have access to any more?", the north isn't in much of a worse spot than say the SE zone (or the SW minus Lagos).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&key=0AsNUaGBnBF1KdFpfNEVNNDYtSzBhRk1HT2tuRDlMUFE&hl=en_US&gid=2

Culled from a document floating around on the internet.

Zone by zone analysis is kind of interesting. Within the SW, Oyo and Ogun seem to be neck-and-neck for 2nd place after Lagos.

In NC, Kwara is king. In the SE, Abia is by far #1.

Anyway, lots of other stuff there. Enjoy!

err

If he cannot handle the security situation, invite the Americans. They'll eradicate BH in no time.

Better yet, invite the Israelis. There is nothing they like better than hunting and killing Islamic militants

Won't compiling stuff be very slow?

What are the specs of the machine?

Seun:
If no one is working on this contest, then I'd like to cancel it, because I'm yet to get any entries.

If you raise the pot of money and/or relax the conditions (ORM, language), then I'm sure you'll get more entries.

Part of the problem is that you are picking a relatively obscure tool chain and also not offering very much money.

So greatly limiting who will be interested.

So just handing over all this equipment to the police? I could see letting them use it at no cost. But gifting? Hmm, I'd be a bit concerned. What prevents them from transferring the equipment out of the state?

gross

I don't follow your logic. The article and the articles it link to suggest that rail is competitive even in the US.

If you are arguing that Europe/Asia are better points of comparison, then it seems to me that the argument in favor gets stronger, not weaker. . . .

Evil Brain:
Releasing a list of terrorists is an excellent idea. I also suggest that Mr. President assemble a crack team of five teenagers with attitude to fight those terrorists. He should give them tight, brightly coloured spandex suits and plastic helmets.

And equip them with giant fighting robots as well!

Or he could look for four teenage half-man, half-tortoises and train them in ninjitsu.

lmao

top.

Kats, thought you'd like this: http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/11/road-v-rail?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/amtrakstruecosts

Upload a high quality version of that to tinypic.com and provide a link. Cannot make out anything on that one. .

BootyOnMe:
Which wan consain you?
Mtchewwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!

Like I said, hilarious