Born2berich:
This isn't tumbum tumbum but rather common sense and observations over a year....I have said it severally that the banks move in order of ranking....Access cannot go above FBHN while UBA cannot go over access bank. If you were observant enough throughout last week and upper week you will notice that while fbnh sat on the N5 spot, access couldn't reach N5....same for UBA as it was struggling to near the N4 mark since access is selling at N4.6, uba will definitely sell lower than it......so the only way out for both of them is for the elephant to move upwards.......if not so, why is it that uba and access that posted a very good result when compared to that of fbnh is still selling lower than it?

NB: you don't need to press calculator or blow grammar for the obvious.

It's very obvious. This is bad for NSE and investors. The obvious ones are GTB, Zenith, FBNH, UBA and Access. The price determinants of these stocks on the floor of the exchange is beyond demand and supply.

Africa's richest man resigns from Dangote Flour as Tiger Brands cuts funding

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL8N13B33S20151116?irpc=932

Youngzedd:


Tell me more about FBNH sir.

Regarding your your comment.

My point was that I would choose UBA over FBN with the current situation of things.

myjoy084:


We Nigerians should be careful of what we wished for. We shouldn't be having problems to every solutions offered. Well, one thing is certain concerning the fact that Nigeria is on the right track to greatness and prosperity. It might be painful now, but everything shall end well

In Myjoy's voice...

Youngzedd:
FBNH or UBA or Flourmill?

For long term. 4 years.

Solid advise needed.

I will definitely go for UBA. In 4 years time the probability of Flourmill trading far below its current price is high. UBA is already down and in less than 4 years from now it has a very high probability of doing atleast a 100%. UBA is also a better dividend-paying stock than Flourmill. It is needless to put FBNH in the equation

CAVEAT: This is a Tumbutumbu analysis. Follow it at your own peril

Long Term Strategy For Oando

When is actually the right time to buy Oando? Some are afraid of buying and becoming trapped while others don't want to involve themselves with a company that may have share reconstruction knocking on its door. There is also the fear of an outstanding huge debt and the persistent fall in the price of crude oil. So many uncertainties surrounding this stock. However, what if Oando is another FO in the making? What is uncle Wale and his gang decide to turn over a new leaf? What if a new and better management will be tied to the future of this company? Nobody wants to miss another 'FO' opportunity. Forte Oil was trading a little above N6.00 less than 3 years ago. Oando is currently trading at an extremely low price compared to its peer in the oil sector where the smart money is. Buying this stock now could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to own an oil stock on the cheap. At the same time, you could be investing your hard-earned money in another 'bank PHB' stock. So how can you eat your cake and have it too? Depending on your risk appetite, here is a method you can use to own a substantial units of Oando in your long term portfolio and still avoid possible pitfalls that could stem from holding this joke-of-the-year for long term:

All things being equal, if you bought 500,000 units of Oando @5.99 (N2,995,000 excluding brokerage fee) and sold 355,000 units @8.50 (N3,017,500) you would have sealed your invested capital and be left with some free 145,000 units to gamble with. Technically you've used your profit in this trade to own 145,000 units of the stock. Let this bonus units run through your definition of long term and allow the future decide whether you made the right or wrong call. Both ways, you will be on the gaining side because technically you didn't pay for the 145,000 units and Oando cannot go to zero Naira.

Note: This strategy requires entering and exiting the trade at the right time and depends on your risk tolerance. If you are not good in technical analysis, or trade with money you can't afford to lose, please do not try this at home

Dragonking:
Somebody_has_hacked_bigass_account!

Seconded

Manonamission:


Yeah.....I'll pick Access. The right price is what I am yet to determine. Investors are queuing to SELL Access for reasons unknown to me.

Imagine the volume traded today.

feelamong:

power dey change hands??

myjoy084:
Access, UBA and Zenith are major banks to watch out for

Are you sure Access is not headed for N4 or below? I no come understand this market again ooo.

739,782,608 units of Access crossed @4.48. What's poppin?

zendi:
If this mop and dump practice you describe is legal, then, true, it could be called manipulation but in a positive way. No wrong doing. Its only up to the buyer to beware. shine your eyes. We are all competing and trying to out-smart and dump on each other, on even BNSiTl, remember.

DONLEKAN:
@Elai147. I understand your sentiment but it is not as easy as that in a free market as our NSE. It is easier to manipulate my ensuring your price does not fall as a major investor in a publicly quoted company than you have described. To ensure your price does not fall, make sure have substantial majority equity and be there to pick up the slack whenever the market sentiment is against you on the market floor. This you can do by making sure you mop your stocks if people are dumping. To manipulate in a cycle as you have suggested on the other hand is not easy particularly for a big company. If you have 700million units of first bank say. If you attempt to dump it the price will fall so sharply as it will take you time to dump that much unit. In the end you'll see that you end up selling substantial units at the lower price end. On the other hand when it is time to buy, you end up driving the price up.

It is just one of the numerous ways of manipulation. You don't have to sell the whole 700 million units. A stock can shed price with the sale of a very few number of units as long as the last trade that goes through is up to the number of units that can move the price.

9free:
Oga manie and Elai, how much is OandO share of the approved subsidy payment?

Bros I no know ooo. I only trade with Oando. I don't care about their welfare

zendi:
It is not manipulation, brother. It is market forces of demand and supply, which is ruled by market sentiment. If they are manipulating oando up now, as you imply, why did the manipulators allow it to crash in the first place? Why is nobody manipulating up wemabank? Is it that TOE does not want a better position on the Forbes list that he has allowed transcorp to be suffering under 2, and uba under 4 etc, thereby demoting him on forbes? There are occasional market infractions, and there is the limited impact of market making, but most of this talk of manipulation are mere conspiracy theories to me.

Maybe you don't know how price manipulation occurs. It happens everywhere even in the US and the UK- so why do you think it doesn't or happen less in naija? How do you think market makers make their profit? Are they 'magas' to just come to the market and perform their primary functions and create liquidity for you and I?

You asked why manipulators allowed price to crash in the first place? If price doesn't fall how will they make profit? A case in point: a deep pocket institutional investor or mutual fund starts dumping a stock that it owns and the price begins to fall. This creates herd mentality and other investors join the race and the price continues to fall. When the deep pocket men are satisfied with the price level and that technical indicators are now displaying buy signals which investors are watching out for, they start buying aggressively. Again, herd behaviour sets in and other investors start buying and the price continues to rise. At this point the institutional investor or mutual fund start recording huge profit as price goes up. Some ogas here sometimes advise investors to sell now and buy later at a cheaper price thereby increasing or even doubling their initial units- this is exactly what the deep pocket men did and it is how manipulation can be done legally.

Evansmed finally @carpark.

megainvest:
Stock market quotes:
"There are two things man cannot fully understand: The moods swings of a pregnant woman and the price swings of the stock market". - Megainvest

9free:
The one of a pregnant woman dey baffle me pass

Na only Tumbutumbu analysis u fit take understand pregnant woman mood swing.

currentprice:
then you will quickly remember how oceanic and intercontinental begin and end their journey

I remember what my broker said about Oceanic: "if you miss this Oceanic bank IPO, .... (I don forget the remaining part of the warning ). Na the same eye I take dey look dis our lazy elephant. No be bank PHB own dem dey talk again.

angelo82:
Anyone who sold Oando at 5.something will be sad now...........Never rush to take a decision when the situation is already bad................

lancee:
Thanks .. not that easy not to sell thou @ that time especially when dem prophet dey shout sell sell it will go ack to 3.50 ..sold some yester @ 6.80/6.90 ... decided to leave the rest for now

Like agba said when u re confused do nothing ..But u have to be strong ..when there is too much of naggin and re-posting same thing over and over

He sold @ great loss and they re looking for pple to sell theirs too @ greater loss ..[consolation tinzs]

The God wey save people be say there were very low volume traded since the selldown began. It's only inexperience that will compel someone to listen to 'prophetic noise' as it was a no-brainer that Oando would not get to 50 kobo from 10 Naira because of bad result- na dem start am? Plus, Wale wouldn't allow something like that happen to his investment- not when price manipulation still exist in the stock market. If one of your investment principles is never to speculate with money you can't afford to lose you will hardly sell due to herd mentality.

Biko, I am not saying anyone should HOLD, SELL or BUY

Elai147:
he he he... dis our NSE too much sha, SMH

Upon the poor result from UACN it closed on full bid yesterday and it's about to do the same today. Maybe the next in line go be Unilever

Born2berich:
Transcorp have joined the train too.

chukyjones:
Is anybody watching TRANSCORP?
From full offer @ 1.61 to almost full bid @ 1.77., entered at 1.61 though..

he he he... dis our NSE too much sha, SMH

Manonamission:
The period under consideration that was referenced is actually Q2 ONLY, that is 3mths ended Sept, 2015 not 6mths ended Sept. The PBT for this period is N22,921 - N23,732 (being proceed of sale) = -N811m
Without the Tax CREDIT in Q2, PAT would be -N958m (A tax consultant or auditor go fit explain that one )

Summarily, Flour mills recorded a loss in its Q2 operations.

Okay, I get what you're saying, but you cannot take out the tax credit as you cannot compute PAT without considering it. Tax credits are subtracted from the tax amount owed. If the result is a credit you must add it to your PBT to get PAT just like you would subtract it from the PBT if it was an expense.

Manonamission:


We stand ready for any further clarifications that may be required. Na fight?

Na dis part funny me pass . I like the clarification though. Wale is very good at clarifying things.

Manonamission:


You guys think you can spoil Uncle Wale's career abi? See story. Lol

Oando on full bid again ooo. It is well (in Myjoy's voice)

Manonamission:


Q2'15 . Cool tension

The Q2 PAT is 24 billion. If you subtract the 23.7 billion disposal of investment it leaves you with a small tashere +ve PAT

Jejebaba:
Good day bnsitl,
A friend just draw my attention to the fact that his FBNH bonus issue has been credited to his CSCS account. I am yet to get mine though I have sent mail to Morgan to send me updated CSCS account. People using CSCS online can kindly confirm its authenticity. Happy trading day.

Why don't you contact First Registrars to confirm. It is better to register with CSCS online as it is possible for the bonus to reflect in your CSCS online account and not reflect in your broker's account and your broker will tell you the bonus has not been distributed.

Manonamission:


Aside the disposal of shares in Unicem, Flour mills made a loss of N958m after tax. For the period under review, the call is right. However, I am of the opinion that Flourmill is a BUY for the long term. Finance costs is this company's albatross. I expect that the capital raised and proceeds from sale of holding in Unicem can be used to pay down debt and fund expansion in profitable units.

Mind you, we are all Nigerian analysts, so we should fear ourselves

From which quarter result bros? How is it a loss of N958m after tax?

passwelle:

Sir, I mean no disrespect. I however disagree with all this men in black conspiracy BS. Remember this is not monopoly money. If stocks are offered for sale, it is because there is a willing seller at that price. When there is a bid, there is a willing buyer at that price. The decline in offers was because many decided to hold than to sell at such a discount to their original purchase price. I am sure you saw how supply nearly outstripped the demand just before the end of the business day.

Like I mentioned, it was just my thought and I may be wrong. You may be wrong on your assertion that "the decline in offers was because many decided to hold than to sell at such a discount to their original purchase price" as it is also possible that the decline in offers was as a result of price manipulation as illustrated in my previous post. From another standpoint, you may be right. In all, we should be making money before year end

Na wa... See dumping at 02:28:58. Who was selling? I just hope the Oando bull continues tomorrow.

passwelle:

Thanks for the above. @Raider76 remember its a dynamic environment. Folks who didnt buy/sell last week can buy/sell now depending on their financial circumstance i.e availability of/need for funds. Nothing fishy is going on. The laws of demand and supply are just being upheld.

The demand and supply thing was artificially created. They have the price where they want it and are now ready to bid it up to where they want it before stabilizing the price. The men in black were responsible for more than 80% of the huge offers we have been witnessing in the past week. They started reducing the offers over time thereby creating an artificial display of gradual interest in the stock as offers were reducing and then all of a sudden, and on a Monday morning, offers disappeared completely and the stock is on full bid. They didn't clear the offers on ground. They made the offers disappear by opening the price at the usual -5% during pre-open but unlike before, after the stock opened at 5.71, there were no new offers at a further -5% as we witnessed throughout last week. People didn't adjust their offer prices (N5.71) by a further -5% before the bid started coming in just immediately after pre-open. Those who have the bravery to enter now may benefit from uncle Wale's attempt to stabilize the price. Some may find it dificult to break-even unless you are "audacious" enough to average up . This is just my observation.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/11318_FLOUR_MILLS_OF_NIG_Q2_SEPT_2015_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2015.pdf

Nice result but the company was supposed to report a huge loss if not for the N23.73 billion gain on sale of investment. If discounted, the supposed profit for the year will be N286.87 million (N0.286 billion) which, when compared to N4.37 billion reported in the previous year, is actually a huge drop in PAT. However, the introduction of N23.73 billion gain on disposal of investment in associate raised the PAT to N24 billion. This company has been reporting several losses and negative cash flow over the years which explains why it has been on steady decline since 2013.

In their year end 31 March 2015 result, they were supposed to report a loss of N5.82 billion as against N5.37 billion profit reported for the previous year but there was a recorded N14.29 billion gain on disposal of investment in associate (which I think was the first tranche of the payment as stated by @Angrybull). This was also an offset against a supposed loss which brought the profit of the company to N8.46 billion compared to N5.37 billion the previous year.

Will the company be able to sustain this PAT in the near future? Most unlikely. For those of us who have long term positions in FMN, let's not be frightened if there is a sharp decline in PAT in the near future. I know the money realised from the sale will be put back into the business and increase shareholders value but I don't expect a significant increase in bottom line for subsequent year end.


CAVEAT: I have a long term position in Flourmills