₦airaland Forum

I think the writer in opening post is too optimistic, it is always better to strive to downplay your chances when assessing your strengths.

SW and North Central are the game changers, I opine that 60% of SW votes and 55% of North central votes will be a good and very realistic performance by APC. The analysis for Imo, edo, rivers and some other south east states are too optimistic for my liking. I dont see APC winning in any of the 11 south + South east states, APC's duty is too pick a sensible chunk from SS/SE votes (20% +) and prevent vehemently inflation of votes. Dazall.



The pendulum swings heavily towards APC When one considers that , North west electorates > SS + SE electorates

theV0ice:
i love your sense of imagination.

is this what you and PDP understand by issue based campaign?

They've got no issue based campaign to engage in. PDP is @ the end game on Nigeria's political chess board, the imminent defeat is near, the loss is staring wildly at them. The checkmate by APC will officially be announced on Feb, 16, 2015.

Clearly, this people are "shitting" in their pants.

Less than 9 weeks for the day of reckoning.

@ OP So, you are a Carrier guy

Which markets do you offer your carrier services?


Or you meant career ?

That Obiano appears sensible than Obi.

He should restructure APGA, and secure its base and join forces to ensure it is a national party.

At first glance, i thought i saw " Mumu Gee.......

noblezone:
No Sir.

"at least" doea not mean "in the neighborhood of"!

Rather, "at most" could mean "in the neigbborhood of".

Besides, the current account balance, is not really a measure of a man's worth!

I am doing what I am supposed to do, bro! Even if you insist on following the old tyrant, at least you wont say, "no body warned me".
Cheers.

You need to understand the contextual meaning .

If it is reported that "at least 5 people lost their lives in a ghastly accident"......., evidently 50,or 100 could not have lost their lives, as your warped logic tries to portray.

at least 1 million means neighbourhood of 1 million.

Look for something sensible doing , 62 days countdown for your principal

jitters from Camp PDP .


9 weeks remaining.

Jonathan has lost considerable goodwill in less than 4 years.

in 2011 it was GEJ 22million, GMB 12 million.


A lot has changed within that 4 years to send chivers in to the heart of PDP

Even with a SS or SE VP, only APC party members and some few others will vote APC in the SS / SE. -------Fact 1

The only thing APC needs to fight for in the 11 states of SS + SE, is to ensure it has 25% votes in at least 2 of the 11 states.

Once we come to terms with the fact above, it will be clear that the VP candidate must come from the SW.


The SW candidate must also be popular enough to have been well known before now within the 6 SW states.

Voters turnout will be higher in the SW . A fayemi that lost his direct constituency not quite long is nt a good omen, A osunbajo is not well known, though he will have no political or religious baggage.

Fashola is still the best bet, though might come with religious baggage, which will be really mild within the SW.

In the last 5-6 years , a whopping 11 African Presidents have died in office , countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea bissau,....e.t,c bears testimony to that What this connotes is that by virue of Nigeria's constitution, in the death of the sitting President, the VP takes over whoever emerges as a VP is very very important. The VP position can not be toiled with.

maclatunji:
A Yoruba Vice Presidential Candidate for Buhari may not be strategic because[b] he already has votes assured here. [/b]

It is in the SouthSouth and SouthEast that he lacks support.

I am confident that Rotimi Amaechi would be Buhari 's running mate.

What is giving you that assurance ? i can bet without a sw vp, Buhari will barely get 40% of votes in SW.
The SS has the party chairmanship position, moreover, the SS already has a presidential candidate in the PDP, the motivation of voting a VP candidate in APC can not be high.

tit:
i will see what adjectives you shall use to qualify Buhari's 2015 running mate.

the truth you cant deny is Buharis running mate in 2011 was not a politician.

Bakare is a yoruba man from Kwara state, who had no political base. He was selected on his strength in the 2010 SNG co-ordination and maybe religious affiliation.

.

tit:
buhari has run with a very popular yoruba politician - bakare, and got less than 5% of SW votes.
with Tinubu or Fashola as running mate he wont do better than that.
SW people are not mugu.
VP is just a spare tyre.
Except we thinks Buhari is going to die in 2015!
(He is about 85 years old now and as strong as Mugabe)
then fulani people will cry again!

Bakare was not a very popular politician, he was a controversial pastor.

sunkoye:
bros with or without Fashola...Tinubu will deliver SW. Buhari, kwankwaso and Atiku will sure deliver the north east and west. Middlebelt is PDP heritage. We need a VP that can cause a pretty disturbance in SE and SS.

Make no mistake, Fashola has a greater goodwill from electorates than the ability of "Tinubu will deliver SW". Tinubu will deliver SW can be grossly overrated.

In my opinion, Oshiomole & Amaechi as APC governors can provide enough disturbance in SS, same with Rochas & Ngige in the SE

a Fashola candidacy, i think will secure at least 60% of the votes of SW.

In my estimation performance across zones with Buhari/Fashola should produce a conservative performance like SW- 60% , NW- 85% , NE - 75% , SS- 20% SE-10%, NC- 55%

A SW lagos Politician is preferrable.


Fashola, Senator Mamora, ...others are Fayemi, Oshiomole, Rochas, ezekwesili, Pat Utomi

Atiku describes primaries as the most credible and transparent election ever conducted by any party

very daft analysis.

The other candidates did not step down, and Buhari got dat much. 2 of his opponents are sitting state governors, one of the governors from the state with the highest number of delegates.

So, will the APC presidential primaries cause APC to split as predicted by witches, wizards and "prophets"?

Seems kwakwanso is doing better than atiku so far?

Nda-Isaiah na only you waka come ?

Sorting starts, names of candidates to be announced and placed in designated boxes.

CFCman:
Nothing prevented them from holding it in the afternoon

You are right, though Politicians are usually nocturnal .

Judging by the very large number of delegates, the earliest possible time of declaration of winner is in the neighborhood of 10am today.

elections will take the next 4-5 hours, sorting and counting 2-3 hours.

Atiku tipped to control most of the votes of the south east delegates.

Why the man come resemble NFF president, Amaju Pinnick ?