₦airaland Forum

WritterNg:
You forgot to add that from that money they'll give you $10 billion loan with ridiculous interest rates and conditions.

It is even the interests you pay that they'll use to fund all the useless NGOs and armed groups to destabilize your country.

Very demonic folks.

They will now add another 2b to give you rickety, washed-up 1945 fighter jets and Navy ships that can barely cross the atlantic ocean without been towed, claiming it is a gift to boost bilateral relationships

Acidosis:
My brother, it's never happening again. Too many reasons:


- There's nothing about marriage I haven't seen or experienced to some extent. I feel like I've reached the peak. The euphoria of a new journey is gone. Going in with that mindset will be unfair to a new partner.
- I think it would be unfair getting married to another woman whom I may continually expect to measure up to my (late) wife.
- I think it would be unfair to my late wife and especially the kids (if I fall into a bad marriage).
- I'm already learning to find peace in being on my own.
- I can't risk going through some trauma. Pregnancy scares the hell out of me now.
- Etc.

You are not using that airtel ending with 89 again?

emmanuelewumi:
I believe in miracles.


With God nothing is impossible

Don't we all? 🤷🤷

Acidosis:
My brother, it's never happening again. Too many reasons:


- There's nothing about marriage I haven't seen or experienced to some extent. I feel like I've reached the peak. The euphoria of a new journey is gone. Going in with that mindset will be unfair to a new partner.
- I think it would be unfair getting married to another woman whom I may continually expect to measure up to my (late) wife.
- I think it would be unfair to my late wife and especially the kids (if I fall into a bad marriage).
- I'm already learning to find peace in being on my own.
- I can't risk going through some trauma. Pregnancy scares the hell out of me now.
- Etc.

Hmmmmmm
I understand you bro.
Really understand you.
The new generation of men are likely not marriage inclined anyway.
A sizeable percentage of modern women are highly risky investment for most men.
How do you invest your time, money, effort etc in something that can easily work out of your life for flimsy excuses? She is tired, lost interest, highly unfaithful/cheats, paternity fraud and God bless you she is financially more stable than you, then you have a woman rubbing shoulder with you in the house, disrespectful, insultive and unremorsefully unsubmissive

Agbalowomeri:
Na so Loco take collect stray bullet

Agbalowomeri:
You go average down tire

ositadima1:
Too many 'what ifs'—what if a rocket bound for Lebanon misses its target and falls on your head?

WriteerNg:
What happened to the ones already in the army?

Are they all dead? Thought they lost only 50 soldiers with 15 slightly injured?

Acidosis:
I'm not in the best position to answer this, sadly. I don't have anything to bring to anybody's table again. I hope married men and others still willing to get married can answer you.

Bro, you no dey marry again?

ositadima1:
This is purely academic and meant to unmask the devastating effects of devaluation—even though it is hard to see, as it often creeps in very slowly. I’m making this point because, despite everything, these companies still provide value to employees whose families depend on them.

Now, having said that, let's look at GTCO. In Q1 2025, GTCO posted a PAT of 258 billion Naira—very impressive, right? But in dollar terms, that's about 161 million dollars. Now let's rewind to 2014: their Q1 PAT was 23 billion Naira, which was equivalent to 117 million dollars at the time.

So, over 11 years, GTCO's real profit in dollar terms grew by only 37%, while in Naira terms, it shot up by over 1000%. An untrained observer looking only at the Naira figures might be amazed by such apparent growth. But in reality, if GTCO had sold all its assets and invested the 2014 profit in U.S. Treasury bonds at just 4% annually, the returns would have surpassed this growth with minimal risk.

Now, PRESCO really impressed me. In Q1 2014, its PAT was just 400 thousand Naira. Fast forward to 2025, and the PAT is over 47 billion Naira. In real terms, that’s a staggering 138% compounded annual growth. This reminds me of the potential in Ellah Lakes. Some so-called experts are bashing the stock, calling it "dogoyaro." Time will tell.

As for me, I only know simple math. And as they say, numbers don’t lie.

I agree with you 100%.
About Ellahlakes, it is a risk worth taking.
Just invest what you can afford to lose or what you can afford to invest in a long time.
If it fails, probably get back 50% of your money back but if it goes as planned, o ma loud gannnn.
From my calculations using TAM/SAM, if ellahlakes goes as forecasted, it will make a lot of naira billionaires by 2035.
A 1m unit now at roughly #3m will likely become #600m in 10 years time @ #200/share.
Imagine collecting a dividend yield of 5% then, that will be #10m per year on a stock bought for #3m

ositadima1:
This is not what I asked. I'm looking at companies' profit growth. What I'm telling you is that, despite some of these companies reporting massive increases in profit, when you adjust those figures to the dollar value of their respective periods, you’ll realize they actually made less real profit.

Let me explain: suppose a Nigerian company made ₦1,000,000 in profit after tax in 2014. At the 2014 exchange rate of ₦197 per dollar, that equates to $5,076. Now, let's say the company has grown its profit by 20% annually (CAGR). By 2025, that would amount to about ₦7,430,000 in profit. Converted at the current exchange rate of ₦1,600 per dollar, that gives you roughly $4,644. So, although the profit in naira terms has increased significantly over the last 10 years, the real value in dollars has actually decreased.

Only companies with a compounded annual growth rate above 22% since then would have experienced real profit growth in dollar terms. But how many companies fall into that category?

So, my point again is that outsized returns aren’t the whole story. We also need to look at real return when compared with stable economies. Going back to your calculation—a foreign investor whose Nigerian portfolio didn’t grow more than 8x from 2014 to date has effectively lost money. Don’t point to the few companies that achieved 20x to 30x returns in share value; we also have many that didn’t. A 2014 investor would have needed to be extremely lucky to pick only the top performers.

I get your point clearly.
Well, that is why I recommend portfolio management of 1:1 or 2:1 because even though naira investment on average lose real value to the dollar on the long run, we can't afford to ignore alot of juice we can also squeeze out from ngx.

fashionnisir:
follow the following steps to get registered
1 Download the NASD app from your app store/playstore

2 Click on get started

3 Do you have a CSCS account ? Click No

4 check the two box and Click on Register

5 you will see the stock brokers who renders the NASD services choose any one of your choice and contact any of them to create NASD account for you.

6 then go back and input it in step 3 , where it saids do you have a CSCS account ? the answer will be yes then put your NASD CSCS account.
these will be easier if you have your details with the stock broker as a return investor through creation of your NSE/NGX CSCS

Note: your NASD CSCS is deferent from your NSE/NGX CSCS but can be provided by the same stock broker.

Thanks for the good job.

Kingsnairaland:
:Niger used to generate one billion each year in uranium under France niger leaders now it making 300 billion under Russia leadership

That has always been western nations pattern.
They will make 500b from you, only give you 2b while regularly putting it on media how they spend another 3b as Aids, NGOs, Scholarships etc back on your country.
This is your money they are giving back to you as a fraction of super mega profit they have squeezed out from you.
They will use another 5b to keep sponsoring and making sure a puppet us always your president by splashing the money to manipulate your elections.
All in all, they have only spent back 10b out of 500b they have milked from your economy back to you.
After that?
They start padding their use-less less productive economy with the massive profit they have made from you in GDPs, strong currency and huge trade deficit against your economy with them

Streetinvestor2:
How will the 10k dollar be #32.5m instead of #16.5 m

If it was invested in dollar fund at average rate of 7% per annum, it would have returned $19,600 which is 32.5m at #1,650 rate

ositadima1:
So, Brother EmmaOdet, while you’re sharing all this profitability news, please do us a favour: convert the figures to dollars—using the old rate (below ₦700) and the current rate (around ₦1,600)—so we can make a more meaningful comparison.

Thank you.

In 2014, #2m was $10k @ $1 = #197
If you had invested the 2m in ngx stocks at an average rate of 30% per annum returns (plus dividends and bonuses), that money would be #27.2m in 2024
That #2m will be #40.2m @ 35% average returns in 10 years
The same $10k dollars would have been #32.5m in 2024 @ 7% rate per annum in dollar fund @1,650 per dollar
A 50/50 exposure of your portfolio to naira/dollars investment would have returned between #30m - #36m in that same period.
The basic thing is that a return of minimum 30% per annum on your investment in naira investment will just do fine and a blend of both to be conservative.

temi4fash:
Boss

Thank you for all you do..

Since i started following you on NL is being blissful.

I read your story about your family, i would just encourage you to be prayerful and try to shield yourself from your extended family.

Have being following your recommendation on stocks.. Am looking forward to more..

Thank you

Thanks bro for your kind words.
About the stocks, i am also a work in progress.
Reading and improving everyday to be a better investor.
About family, have been making serious adjustments since the demise of my mum and i am far better now.
Thanks again

We may see okomu close to #1,000 per share with this Q1/25 eps of #22.79

osiawa:
Most UK schools don’t truly offer scholarships. They inflate the tuition, then give a “discount” called a scholarship, which only brings the cost back to the original fee. It’s misleading . When you think you’re getting partial funding, but you’re still paying a hefty amount.

My take: if it’s not a full scholarship, don’t fall for it. It’s just a well-packaged illusion.

Hmmmmm

illicit:
Are you actually saying that Nigeria doesn't have unemployment problem but unemployability is the problem?

I wouldn't employ you too...

fashionnisir:
Here are some companies listed in the Blue category on the Nigerian Stock Exchange's Alternative Securities Market (NASD):
- *Financial Sector:*
- *Access Bank PLC*: ₦19.30
- *AG Mortgage Bank Plc*: ₦0.53
- *Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) PLC*: ₦21.71
- *Cititrust Holdings PLC*: ₦13.50
- *Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company Plc*: ₦5.50
- *NASD Plc*: ₦19.00
- *Real Estate Sector:*
- *Afriland Properties Plc*: ₦17.78
- *Purple Real Estate Income PLC*: ₦7.47
- *UBN Property Company Plc*: ₦2.10
- *Other Sectors:*
- *11 PLC (Oil & Gas)*: ₦236.25
- *Air Liquide Plc (Oil & Gas)*: ₦8.25
- *CAPITAL HOTELS PLC (Hospitality)*: ₦5.00
- *Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria PLC (Consumer Goods)*: ₦35.37

Thanks for the update

temi4fash:
Please what is TIP?

Please how do i claim my dividend payments?

The Initiates Plc.

There is a site you fill up your details and they will automatically process it for you at a little cost. Will try and check it up or you can send a mail to the registrar of the stock company you bought

ositadima1:
Most of the revenue/profit growth you folks are celebrating—I've read how Agba is praising the heavy returns in the consumer sector—I have just one question: Have you converted those returns to dollars and compared them with previous years’ returns using the exchange rates of those times? Which one do you think is better?

To me, it looks like we're seeing more money that’s worth much less.

And before anyone launches an attack saying “we spend in naira,” let me ask: how many made-in-Nigeria items do you actually own, aside from a few consumables?

It’s actually quite funny. Someone who used to earn ₦20 million a year before the Tinubu and Buhari administrations could afford a decent car and still live comfortably. Today, that same ₦20 million might only buy a car—if your taste isn’t even that high.

So, Brother t, while you’re sharing all this profitability news, please do us a favour: convert the figures to dollars—using the old rate (below ₦700) and the current rate (around ₦1,600)—so we can make a more meaningful comparison.

Thank you.

If you look at it on a year or two basis, you may not get the big picture.
You have to look at a typical business cycle of 5 years to get a good equity return.
In summary, an average 30-35% return on a mixture of mmf, equity (plus dividends and bonuses) per year will do just fine to hedge naira devaluation and inflation in relations to dollar.
Or a mixture of mmf, stock plus dollar mmf to hedge inflation in your portfolio at a 2:1 will be just fine too.
Have posted the calculations before but will take my time to post one tomorrow when less busy

Bizibi:
it means many Nigerians are not interested in stocks,t.bills and bonds but they are always interested in Ponzi schemes.

I will say the awareness is not there

cnnamoko:
The Opay effect

I told a cashier in G.. that was raising shoulder during naira scacity period, that this big bank hall ll be converted to a museum or better still a poultry farm in 5-10 years time. She was still formimg untop of my unreversed 11k tilll date.

Fintech ll show them shege. Without a single major branch Opay and Moneipoint ll snatch all their customers like how sidechicks do it professionally

Sunrisepebble:

Why you come dey laugh me now sunrise pebble stones?

ndept:
Commendations for your analysis on financial results. However, the current PE of TIP is around 10.67 and not 1.43 as quoted by the company or 3 as stated in the bolded, taking into account that the market price of TIP is 450k, while the eps is 42k

I believe you used the Q1/25 to divide the price instead of using a full year eps to divide the price.
It is either you use the trialing 12 months eps - Q2/24 + Q3/24 + Q4/24 + Q1/25 divide by 4 or you use forward /estimated eps 4 x Q1/25 being the easiest to use.
Your 42k Q1/25 x 4 is 168k for full year but I prefer to be conservative with 1.5 which gives us a p/e of 3

nosa2:
What company is this?

Also please I suspect your analysis is great but the acronyms make it difficult to understand

As per the picture attached, sometimes we have to use the best valuation tool to get a stock fair value.
The common mistake of using P/E ratios every time by investors is not right.
As per TIP company, the company is in the growing stage of business - revenue, gross profit, operating profit and net profit all growing rapidly.
You can use a stone to hit a nail but the best tool is hammer.
you can use a knife or teeth to cut a wire but the best tool is plier.
you can use a knife to unscrew a bolt but the best tool is screw driver.
There are many valuation tools to use but i feel more comfortable using these ones and it doesn't mean they don't have there drawbacks or lapses nor are they perfect like any other tool.
It only raises your chances of been correct.
So the best valuation tools are - price to sales, price to gross profit, price to forward P/E and price to free cashflow ( if positive and constant for some years) because TIP falls between stage 3 and 4 of business cycle - growing and operating stages.
Using the P/S for example - TIP has fluctuated between 0.4 to 1.3 from 2019 to 2024.
Current TTM P/S as at yesterday is 3.0 which is above historic average of 0.6 for me.
But we expect the revenue to grow by atleast 50% in 2025 based on previous performance of 80% per year from 2020 to 2024 and confidence in management to deliver and projected expansion growth.
TTM revenue per share is 0.8. If it grows by 50%,
Estimated FY revenue per share = share price #4.5 x (1+0.5) = 6.8
So, estimated Annualized FY 25 price = New Revenue x P/S ratio = 6.8 x 0.8 = #5.4
You can do your valuation for other metrics and give them a weighted average to arrive at a reasonable price for TIP

nosa2:
What company is this?

Also please I suspect your analysis is great but the acconyms make it difficult to understand

The initiates Pls (TIP) - a waste management company sited in PH.
Sorry about the acronyms, i believe 80% of the monikers on this group understands these basic terms by now to reduce writing stress.
Anyway, let's get down to business -
TIP p/e as referenced from the company's report in picture attached below stated that p/e was 6.8 in 2024 but has reduced to 1.6, i believe as at the time they prepared the report . Trailing twelve month (TTM) p/e
Current P/E as at yesterday when i did my valuation was 3 - current Market price (MP) of 4.5 divided by estimated full year eps ( Est. FY EPS 2025) = 1.5.
Looking at the historical p/e i attached - both annual and quarterly P?S ration fluctuates but the average as been 3 while sector has been 5.
So you can always use a forward P?E of 3 or 5 to make your valuation to give a good implied price ( estimated price)

GP - Gross profit
NP - Net profit
OCF - Operating Free Cashflow
QoE - Quality of Earnings - You compared operating cashflow generated diveide by net profit to see if the company is manipulating what they claimed to have generated.
it is easier to manipulate or pad income statement and claimed to have made profit but what you can manipulate and hard to frame is the actual money in the company's current/corproate account in the bank which is where cashflow report comes in.
QoE that is close to 1 or above 1 when you divide OCF by NP shows that what the company claimed to have made in profit is real but lower than 0.5 or negative, you shouldn't take the earnings or profit made serious.

Streetinvestor2:
I still dey see my own.E no go better for all fbn past ceo way play me street. My saving grace be say I averaged down enough at #6.
Ote wan start him own street. Any day I leave fbn I no go look back like I have done with some stock. They become permanent enemy even if they begin declare trillions as gain

PETERiCHY:
ACCESSBk N2.05k dividend markdown was done before trading commenced yesterday and it still gained 50kobo at close of trade.

On MAY 9th NASCON #2:00K dividend payment will take place Again on MAY 15th we will pocket another decent dividend from ACCESSBK dividend meanwhile LOCO is busy chasing the winds

Our TOP 3 picks for 2025

1) CADBURY
2) NASCON
3) ACCESS BANK ♿

Choose WISELY don't be like LOCO 😜

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Na WA oooo.
Wetin Locomotive Locodemus do una for this thread?

crownprince2017:
The day I gave up on loco was the day he put cwg, etransact and cham in the same category and rate e transact over cwg. I just they laugh that day.

Did you see cwg results....

I'm expecting your comments.

Buy quality not quantity, a whole buffet as to bend his own rule when he met Morgan.


We don't have to hawk our picks, the market will place them where they belongs to with time.

TIP.

MP = #4.5
Q1 eps = 350k
Est. FY eps = #1.4
Current p/e = 1.43
Q1 2024 p/e = 6.8
FY 24 p/e = 1.6
Highest p/e last 5 years was in 2022 = 10.8
Industry p/e =5
Implied price FY25 = #7

The good thing is the growth tendency.
They did 5 projects in Q1 compared to 1 project in Q1/24
They added 3 new clients in Q1 compared to none in Q1/24.
So they are growing and there is still room to grow.
Rev up 282% to 1.2b
GP = 50%
NP = 25%
Working capital increased 293% to 1.38b
eps growth of 376% from 7k from Q1/24.
OCF = 964m which give QoE of 3