₦airaland Forum

angelo82:
That result is not bad and they have emphasized it severally that they will clean up their balance sheet which is what they are doing.The summary is that bank is not the same like it was last year and they are better but still trying to be better.

I know the result wasn't bad. I previously thought it was bad when they brought out the one with the wrong figures. When they corrected it and I listened to their call, I realised the loss isn't that bad. That's what I've tried to explain by calling it artificial

[quote author=holm post=51423218][/quote]Well in summary according to them,

They understand that revaluation gains from FX at this magnitude is not long-term sustainable,

So knowing this they took advantage of a recent CBN circular to make additional provision on collective and specific impairment as a form of prudence. In other words they probably didn't have to provide as much as they did.

This act offers up two advantages,

1.) They were able to knock off a significant portion of their NPLs and bring the ratio down within regulatory approved limits (and also improve CAR?) while still spotting some decent profits
2.) The thing with provision for loan loss as against loan loss charges is that in subsequent accounting periods it can be brought back in to income when they recover the loan - right? So they are kind of preparing for a drop in future income with this too.

This is my layman understanding.

Apparently, FCMB's 3rd quarter loss is 'artificial'. Makes all the difference.




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http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/15756_FCMB_GROUP_PLC_-_Q3_SEPT_2016_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2016.pdf


I was up between 2am and 4am this morning doing a number of things on my laptop chief of which is this FCMB result. I had to go to their website (hence my knowing that the bank's result was the only one audited and not the group) because I didn't understand where an EPS of 0.67 was coming from as against 0.13.

Finally I decided I would take the result to a professional to help me check since I'm not an accountant by training. Before that I thought of mentioning the issue on this forum this morning, but I regret to say this forum has not been of much help lately, in discussing technical issues like this. Most people who know prefer to just keep quiet. So I decided if 0.67 was the real EPS then the result is not very good. Needless to say this new result makes a quite a difference. FCMB must pure next year! Unfortunately Morgan and now NSE no let person buy am cheap.

I'm beginning to suspect NSE, when there's a good trade like this them go just off link

lancee:
'


..Morgan dey try, just need to get themselves togeda

Yeah, they do.

This MERITRADE platform is a scam. You'll place an order for a price that matches an available offer/qty yet your trade won't go. It won't even appear. I pray that Morgan comes back better in operations with the same itrade quality. The speed with which I'll exit this Meristem they no go believe.

ExLaidback:
There's the bank and then the group. Since a few years now, they only audit the result of the bank in Q3 and not the group or other subsidiaries, however they merge it with the unaudited Q3 of the group.

By the way to me, this FCMB result was a good result but it wasn't fantastic. (UCAP was fantastic for comparison). They actually made a loss in Q3 and except there's a devaluation before the end of the year, they'll likely make a loss in Q4 too - I'm just speculating here but the conference call today should clarify this premise hopefully. What that means is that the EPS declared now may reduce in the FY 2016.

Be that as it may there's still tremendous upside potential within the next 4 - 5 months if they don't do too badly in Q4 and dividend next year should still be much much higher than this year.

rebekah2011:
FCMB said the Q3 will be delayed because they wanted it to be audited. Why this unaudited report now? The banking segment is looking increasingly shaky.

There's the bank and then the group. Since a few years now, they only audit the result of the bank in Q3 and not the group or other subsidiaries, however they merge it with the unaudited Q3 of the group.

larush:
Morgan will commence trading tomorrow. Confirmed.

So I hear. They were delaying the process of my portfolio transfer on Monday/Tuesday had to call them and vex. Finally they did it yesterday then CSCS did their part. So I commenced trading with my new broker today, only for me to be seeing that they'll start trade tomorrow. It's just annoying.


Every enemy that's following me, una dey waste time o, cos my God has delivered me!

fxuser:
Just Rants
-The corporate debt market is busy, PFA's will be smiling. wacking 17%- 22% interest on govt & corporate debt instead of waiting for unknown dividend

PFAs had about 70% of their funds in FGN debt, 9% in local shares and only about 5% in corporate debt as at July. I doubt the ratio will differ much now.

This Meristem platform in my opinion is unduly complex. Morgan really tried with their platform and commission. Quite simple and easy to use, gives you the right amount of info and no more and it's easy on the eyes. Well i's all good...


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chimchris247:
guys is morgan back?

I called them this morning and they said they've finally sorted all issues with the NSE, so they'll be opening very soon. He couldn't explain what very soon means though. Meanwhile I finalized the process of moving to Meristem yesterday, supposed to start trading with them today. AAAArrrrggghhh!!!

kolaish:
You are completely right. Even at 50k, the stock still looks dangerous as anything can still come its way, probably restructuring. All one needs to do is to keep an eye on the stock for any useful information before jumping into it. I suffered similar fate through oceanic, finbank and some other stock like that.

Yes o, only thing is 'information' never really gets to guys like me so we just continue to look elsewhere generally...

Godisfaithful:
50Kobo stock is 95% a trap and possibly dangerous to buy. Past performance doesn't guaranty future performance when it comes to stock market!

Yup,

i couldn't agree more

fxuser:
market health check

Worst performers YTD Bottom 10
Forte Oil -77.39%
Skye bank -67.72%
Portland Paints -63.30%
Sterling -61.75%
Diamond -60.43%
GSK -60.41%
Caverton -59.51%
UACN Prop -56.16%
Ashaka -56%
Transcorp -55.82%

the bears have been busy and well feed by buharinomics

Ordinarily, I would buy Skye since it's now 50k but I remember that's exactly how I lost my savings back in 2011 through Starcomms (bought it at 50k and said what's the worst that could happen? Well the worst happened, company did share restructuring then disappeared till today) . So for now, have to look elsewhere...

kentoto:
,

Na so so volume we dey see

On a related note I just called TRW stockbrokers, their buying and selling charges are 1.8 and 2.05, totalling 3.85%. the search continues.

Please who has information on cheaper commissions and folio (morgan type trading platform).

Time dey go oh.

K

Bros abeg if you see, kindly let us know. I've moved my stuff to Meristem for now though, couldn't delay anymore as this could be a critical period

pluto09:
If you look at diamond bank results for the past 3 years, you will discover that they have always had issue with NPL. anyway sha,make we they look ...

Perhaps you're right then. I didn't go that far, only checked 2015 results

angelo82:
Diamond is as reckless as skye and they may go the way of skye at last.The good thing is skye has already declared loss but Diamond is still struggling with the situation but to get out of the wood they will also declare loss at a point.

Reckless? Well I don't know. However they tried to play big in the SMSE/retail banking space and FX devaluation no favour them, but we are observing them keenly in 4D sef

pluto09:
Just check the history of diamond impairment charges.Their NPL ratio is second only to first bank from the rare. They are also struggling with adequate capital and a futher devaluation of the naira will cause
their CAR to go below regulatory minimum of 15%. This is not the best of time for diamond bank.

Yeah I think part of the NPL is caused by revaluation losses due to FX devaluation. That's dollar denominated loans increase with depreciation of naira (someone may confirm this as I may be wrong)

But this is a bad time for them truly. I warned about Diamond some 2 months back, someone said I wasn't making sense

pluto09:
People shoulb be very careful about diamond bank.We can only hope that diamond bank will not become another skye.

I won't rule anything out cos in business world nothing is impossible. But their predicament is caused primarily by FX troubles and devaluation not foolish spending like Skye (they have some huge liabilities denominated in dollars but they can reduce their exposure by FX swaps) . So ordinarily I think they are more likely to recover faster than Skye even if they post loss now. Just my opinion though

Meanwhile I did small analysis on Diamondbnk recently and it seems too early to purchase as they are likely to post a loss by the end of this year if care is not taken. So their price might still fall far below what it is now before finding support

fxuser:
bloody Novemeber , market down -5.95% this month and its not over yet

#nawa

I believe the ASI will break through 24000 sometime between now and Jan IF the present economic climate (attack on pipelines, no FX devaluation, sub $50/barrel crude price) continues. So in the interim focus is on deciphering stocks likely to outperform that trend

What would have surprised me is if November wasn't bearish.


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angelo82:
True,it goes off anyhow and their commission is back to normal again after two days reduction.

Oh So I'm right. It is well, the search continues.

Na wa.

Even the Meristem that has a much better customer service (though higher commission) now seems to have an e-trade platform that doesn't work well. I don tire.


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EazyMoh:
Lol! The onus is on the party with a claim to prove it's point, not me. Let's wait and see who finally purchases the bank and am sure it's not gonna be outside those that bid. But then they might claim it was their outcry that changed the outcome.

SMH. Naaa, there are arguments one is far above so I really shouldn't bother but I will - just on the off chance that you're truly unaware.

Sir. What other proof do you want? Leaked confidential documents on social media domain or what? parties to a process within an organisation have given the public a heads up on whats happening within their organisation and you outside are holding brief. On who's behalf? The most you should have to say is to join a call for an investigation. If 'au contraire' you call them liars, then disprove their claim. Simple.

'They might claim it was their outcry that changed the outcome?' Lol. Seriously, are you for real? So they are just making noise now for absolutely no reason in order to achieve what exactly?

EazyMoh:
I honestly doubt (1) could be true. At what point did the "cabal" decide to purchase the bank that they forgot to get involved in the bidding?
(2) Like I said who are those that made the higher bid? and why aren't they the ones complaining?

The companies who made a bid may not be aware of who the other participants are, only top AMCON insiders would know this and those in the know have used the avenue at their disposal to complain about it. If you doubt them the onus is on you to disprove. Also it's funny that you think such a thing is impossible in Nigeria.

EazyMoh:
Why so much hatred for the north?
If Sigma Pensions ltd as alleged is the "northern interest" that wants to purchase the bank, then who would say Sigma Pensions has no financial know-how to take care of the bank?
Premium Times can do better than this. Who are the other bidders that bid higher than the quoted amount? Shouldn't they be the ones complaining?
Bank PHB was originally a northern bank by origin, and it's only natural for the initial owners to want to take over the bank.
Again why didn't the Amcon chairman sell the other two banks to the same "northern interest" before?
This blackmail won't work, and I think anybody that makes these types of accusations shall be punished if they turn out to be false.

I guess you conveniently missed the parts that stated that:-

1.) The Company DID NOT partake in the bidding process in the first place.
2.) The sum they are offering is far smaller than what other bidders WHO PARTICIPATED IN BIDDING are offering and it's also far from what AMCON initially paid for the Bank.

Sir, running a pension custodian (which is at best a glorified hedge fund) is not the same thing as running a Bank. Please.

Lastly Bank PHB wasn't a northern bank by origin. It was formed from a merger of Platinum Bank (a western or southern owned bank) and Habib Bank (a northern owned bank) - not that I see how this matters because Keystone is a long way from all of that.

About FCMB, unlike what has being said on this forum previously, since last year they've been auditing their Q3 (i.e. the Bank not the group), so that decision didn't start with this year.

They intend to capitalize some of their earnings after the release of the Q3 audit in order to improve their CAR which is considerably low at about 15%. I'm not fully sure, but it probably means a part of their Total Comprehensive Income or a part of their profits will be converted to Tier 1 cap as retained earnings - I hope someone learned can provide provide clarification here

So interim dividend may not follow the audit (as usual), but 'capitalization of earnings' will. This - I think - effectively reduces the EPS

They still intend to raise tier 2 cap of about N10B to N15B; the audit will probably determine this.

They are still expecting a much better result y-o-y despite an expected increase in NPLs (unlike FBNH that's seeing a decline in profits with increase in NPL)

Please is anyone on Meritrade platform? Is it me or are they having issues connecting to NSE cos the bid /offer /all trade boxes are empty. No data is being displayed there. Is this normal? Please help a bro out thanks.


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Chibuking81:
How To Transfer
Your Shares From A
Suspended
Stockbroking Firm
To An Approved
One
BY: NAIRAMETRICS MAY 24,
2015

Source: NSE

Thanks Sir, Meristem just sent me something similar

Intendy:
bad man.you go really appreciate SEC as you no get FO,transcorpse and oando with MC.Chai

Hehehe...Bros how we go do.