ExLaidback's Posts
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It's my prayer that those that come here to regularly over-hype a stock and those that come to over-underrate a stock will desist from such especially those that do so without any supporting data or analysis. $$$ |
SBG04:Yes na I already said that. They initially planned to raise N15B, then cut it down to N7.5B but finally raised N5.1B last month. The bond was fully subscribed. FBNH hinted at re-capitalizing some of their earnings (which was expected considering their huge NPL burden) and I think FCMB said the same. But they also said they definitely intend to pay more dividend than they paid last year - which was 10k. My point is unlike Zenith's capital raising that came as a surprise even after paying very good dividend (N1.77k) and posting the highest profit ever by a Nigerian bank, FCMBs capital raising has since been anticipated. It was part of what caused their SP to break N1.30 support 3rd qtr last year and they've addressed the issue in their last earnings call and they've gone ahead to raise most of it through debt. So what's the really big surprise? Except there was an astronomic increase in NPLs in Q4 which is only somewhat possible, I'm not sure what else to expect. But you sound like someone who has seen the result, hence my asking, 'what did you see?' |
SBG04:The absolute worst things that can happen to FCMB now is that:- They made such a huge loss from NPLs in Q4 it chopped all their already audited 9M and FY profits. They decided to raise more Tier 1 cap by issuing more shares thereby diluting their OS. (note they already plan to capitalize a bit of their profit and they raised N5B earlier this year) They would therefore pay a dividend less than 13k. Outside this three, I'm not sure what the devil is. Please kindly clarify what you saw in their result. |
Well I have learnt the hard way (by loosing clean N3M last year in FBNH and Dangflour - since everyone is throwing out figures, let me say mine too) that NSEMPA is full of alarmists and 'panickers' both among old timers and newbies. When you don't know what you're doing or do not have a well laid out strategy, you'll be caught in the cross fire. It's exactly what I was doing last year, that I lost that money. Well I learnt and learnt well. I also stopped posting thoughts cos I realized most people can't separate wheat from chaff. Get your strategy right so you're not tossed by every wind of doctrine. But after every thing remember the market is king and life is win some and loose some. Cheers. |
Manonamission:The article didn't directly address the U.S. Shale oil output though. It only talked about Oil imported into U.S. and not those produced in the U.S. Anyway I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and hoping for the best. |
Concerning the Greenback, this link below shows what I consider the only real and unmanageable threat to the appreciation of the Naira especially in the mid to long term. With Osinbajo at the helm, I think The Niger Delta issue is quite manageable. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-26/with-shale-oil-production-like-this-who-needs-trump?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social Lets watch and see anyway. |
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ihedioramma:Yes Sir, Cheers and good luck with your trading. ... |
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ihedioramma:Get which news? What happened? Or what is happening? Is it FBNH that is doing well? I have seen the audited Q3 of FCMB, which of Skye bank's last year result has been seen? Why would anyone casually lump both in the same category? In as much as nothing is impossible in business and stocks, you guys have not said anything one can hold onto tangibly - irrespective of a bear or not. ... NB: If I'm exiting FCMB now, it will be because it has hit my stop loss, as per proper trading methodology not all these panic rumor you guys are peddling to frighten the weak. Cheers |
Manonamission:My brother the analysis tire me. Except one is saying he mismanaged the bank in the time he was there and that FCMB is now on the same keel as Skyebank, I'm not sure what the negativity is about. The only doubt most people would have now is if the new CEO would perform at the same level as Ladi or worse or better. It's that uncertainty that would bring the bears if at all. FCMB commercial bank is the main entity in FCMB group, whoever was good enough to manage the bank for 10 years is definitely good enough to manage the group going forward. If you're seeing negative sentiment on FCMB stock today, it's doubts about the efficacy of the bank's new CEO, that's all. At any rate, is it not better to wait till the end of trading to be sure it's not the Market Maker doing his juju stuff? |
The strong defensive posture of FCMB is being severly tested. $$$ |
fxuser:I can't open the page even. |
BMZK:There's a pre-market trade that happens in the morning between 9.30 and 10.10am or so. That's where open market price is determined based on supply vs demand. |
stokfrick:Some of una for this forum sha. Bro you are mixing me up with someone else. Kindly go through my posts. |
UCAP > N4 FCMB > N1.5 FBNH > N4.2 The above is a very likely scenario before the end of this week, as the bull is very likely to reach the end of the week if not extend till next. Delay no more! |
locodemy:I bought a few units about two weeks ago and sold it with little profit i.e. JIJO. Almost bought some again on Friday but decided to just wait a little and observe the market more. I'm still in waiting mode. Good luck with your purchase though |
locodemy:To fully understand whats happening to Sterling and Diamond, you have to consider their fundamentals and not even technicals, though both are required on the long run. Sterling's TCI (Total Comprehensive Income) is in a loss position while Diamond is feared to produce a bad result, maybe even a loss in their FY2016. I'm of the opinion that any rally there can easily result in a trap, so until insider news filters in of their results, one may not expect a true change in their SP position. I also expect them to be among the banks that would delay their result this year. Lastly there are fears that there may be mergers or restructuring in the banking sector this year so...traders should tread carefully... Since banks results (good ones) are going to come in much earlier this year going by the trend being set by Access, GTB, Zenith et al, I guess then that FCMB would rally much much earlier than I previously anticipated, hence time to reload. |
rebekah2011:Ok Thanks, I'll try it next week rebekah2011:Really, what category is that if I may ask Sir. |
ExLaidback: |
Morgan really really really needs to do something about their platform in the bid/offer windows, where prices that have been past or exceeded still appear. It doesn't allow one read the ratios and analyse accurately. Now it seems FCMB closed at full bid, which is a big difference from what it was showing with some available offers, but now we will never know. Cos If FCMB closed with full bid, then afraid go catch me o |
angelo82:No you didn't understand me. i JIJO a bit last year October wit FCMB and afterwards took position for this period. I've had it in my portfolio since October last year after Q3. I'm saying the bull we are seeing this week and maybe next is child's play of what FCMB is capable of. I've been one of those recommending FCMB with fundamental analysis since last year - check my posts. I don't expect it to cross 1.20 (max 1.25) before pulling back this time in preparation for the main ride. But of course i could be wrong - I'm assuming that their result will not be ready till March. |
locodemy: We pray o!!! |
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feelamong: After all my suffer? No not yet sir. Actually I sold a few units at a loss some few weeks back to raise cash for something, so my average price increased. Now i need to wait small before cashing out for reasonable profit. |
While the mid-term upside potential for FCMB is very high, my focus is not there yet. it's time has not come fully yet. |
fxuser:I wonder how feasible N4 is within next week |
fxuser:Yeah, the bears have forced it down, but if only...if only it can close above 2.90 . 2.91 is ok... |
The way UCAP body dey hot... I'm just observing, anyway their dividend will be the final arbiter. Cos if it closes above 2.9 today... $$$ |
OBAGADAFFI:Yeah, well if it's customer service in general, of the three of them - Morgan, Meristem & Investment-One - Meristem wins hands down |
yom2:You're right. Anyway fingers crossed. |
fxuser:Anyway I don't think we would be seeing a bear as severe as this year as a result of the improvement |
Sorry we are not guys . some body in the water can not know what is happing out .