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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 7:59pm On Mar 06, 2017
It's my prayer that those that come here to regularly over-hype a stock and those that come to over-underrate a stock will desist from such especially those that do so without any supporting data or analysis.


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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 5:11pm On Mar 06, 2017
SBG04:
Capitalise a BIT of their profit? Tier 1 banks with their strong ratios are rushing to raise capital. The likes of FCMB and Diamond with very narrow and falling ratios will obviously conserve all they can and raise a hell lot more than Tier 1 banks are even proposing.
Yes na I already said that. They initially planned to raise N15B, then cut it down to N7.5B but finally raised N5.1B last month. The bond was fully subscribed. FBNH hinted at re-capitalizing some of their earnings (which was expected considering their huge NPL burden) and I think FCMB said the same. But they also said they definitely intend to pay more dividend than they paid last year - which was 10k.

My point is unlike Zenith's capital raising that came as a surprise even after paying very good dividend (N1.77k) and posting the highest profit ever by a Nigerian bank, FCMBs capital raising has since been anticipated. It was part of what caused their SP to break N1.30 support 3rd qtr last year and they've addressed the issue in their last earnings call and they've gone ahead to raise most of it through debt. So what's the really big surprise?

Except there was an astronomic increase in NPLs in Q4 which is only somewhat possible, I'm not sure what else to expect. But you sound like someone who has seen the result, hence my asking, 'what did you see?'
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 4:52pm On Mar 06, 2017
SBG04:
^^^^^

I really pity some people.
Please get a doc on standby for this guy
The absolute worst things that can happen to FCMB now is that:-

They made such a huge loss from NPLs in Q4 it chopped all their already audited 9M and FY profits.
They decided to raise more Tier 1 cap by issuing more shares thereby diluting their OS. (note they already plan to capitalize a bit of their profit and they raised N5B earlier this year)
They would therefore pay a dividend less than 13k.

Outside this three, I'm not sure what the devil is. Please kindly clarify what you saw in their result.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback:
Well I have learnt the hard way (by loosing clean N3M last year in FBNH and Dangflour - since everyone is throwing out figures, let me say mine too) that NSEMPA is full of alarmists and 'panickers' both among old timers and newbies. When you don't know what you're doing or do not have a well laid out strategy, you'll be caught in the cross fire. It's exactly what I was doing last year, that I lost that money. Well I learnt and learnt well.

I also stopped posting thoughts cos I realized most people can't separate wheat from chaff.

Get your strategy right so you're not tossed by every wind of doctrine. But after every thing remember the market is king and life is win some and loose some.

Cheers.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 9:28am On Mar 02, 2017
Manonamission:
https://www.proshareng.com/news/Oil-Sector/Next-Oil-Rally--Futures-Say-Market-Is-Ti/33894
The article didn't directly address the U.S. Shale oil output though. It only talked about Oil imported into U.S. and not those produced in the U.S.

Anyway I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and hoping for the best.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 11:17am On Feb 28, 2017
Concerning the Greenback, this link below shows what I consider the only real and unmanageable threat to the appreciation of the Naira especially in the mid to long term. With Osinbajo at the helm, I think The Niger Delta issue is quite manageable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-26/with-shale-oil-production-like-this-who-needs-trump?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Lets watch and see anyway.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 10:48am On Feb 27, 2017
grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 9:45am On Feb 21, 2017
ihedioramma:
cool Sorry we are not guys . some body in the water can not know what is happing out .
Yes Sir, Cheers and good luck with your trading.

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 9:43am On Feb 21, 2017
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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:15pm On Feb 20, 2017
ihedioramma:
Did you said the way of skye bank? . if you wait and every body get the news who will you sell to and at what price sir ? .
Get which news? What happened? Or what is happening? Is it FBNH that is doing well? I have seen the audited Q3 of FCMB, which of Skye bank's last year result has been seen? Why would anyone casually lump both in the same category?

In as much as nothing is impossible in business and stocks, you guys have not said anything one can hold onto tangibly - irrespective of a bear or not.

...

NB: If I'm exiting FCMB now, it will be because it has hit my stop loss, as per proper trading methodology not all these panic rumor you guys are peddling to frighten the weak. Cheers
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 1:45pm On Feb 20, 2017
Manonamission:
I don't understand this part. He has been the MD/CEO of the bank for about 10 yrs now. Youngest CEO of a bank at the time.
My brother the analysis tire me. Except one is saying he mismanaged the bank in the time he was there and that FCMB is now on the same keel as Skyebank, I'm not sure what the negativity is about. The only doubt most people would have now is if the new CEO would perform at the same level as Ladi or worse or better. It's that uncertainty that would bring the bears if at all.

FCMB commercial bank is the main entity in FCMB group, whoever was good enough to manage the bank for 10 years is definitely good enough to manage the group going forward. If you're seeing negative sentiment on FCMB stock today, it's doubts about the efficacy of the bank's new CEO, that's all. At any rate, is it not better to wait till the end of trading to be sure it's not the Market Maker doing his juju stuff?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 10:39am On Feb 02, 2017
The strong defensive posture of FCMB is being severly tested.



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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 10:11am On Jan 30, 2017
fxuser:
Can anyone log on to Morgan ??
I can't open the page even.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 11:13am On Jan 12, 2017
BMZK:
Anyone with idea on why FBHN was opened at N3.55 when it closed yesterday at N3.66?
There's a pre-market trade that happens in the morning between 9.30 and 10.10am or so. That's where open market price is determined based on supply vs demand.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 10:30pm On Jan 10, 2017
stokfrick:
That was how exlaidback was beefing ucap when it went to 2.8sth, that it was overvalued and I was just wondering y, even when its fundamentals says otherwise. Come and see how they r queueing to buy it now at 3.30 cheesy
Some of una for this forum sha. Bro you are mixing me up with someone else. Kindly go through my posts.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 3:54pm On Jan 09, 2017
UCAP > N4

FCMB > N1.5

FBNH > N4.2


The above is a very likely scenario before the end of this week, as the bull is very likely to reach the end of the week if not extend till next. Delay no more!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 8:49pm On Jan 07, 2017
locodemy:
i have made up my mind to buy a particular stock on monday after 3 hours proper due diligence.......it is a tier2 bank.........it is not as risky as skye bank.....my stock broker has also recommend it .........if i perish i perish..........my people i wont hide anything..........it is STERLING BANK or nothing.

i nominate fcmb,sterling bank as winners come 2016 fye results for tier2 banks and juju bank stocks for 2017.
I bought a few units about two weeks ago and sold it with little profit i.e. JIJO. Almost bought some again on Friday but decided to just wait a little and observe the market more. I'm still in waiting mode.

Good luck with your purchase though
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 12:27pm On Jan 07, 2017
locodemy:
Good day fxuser.pls i will like you to display the technicals and bullish sentiments on these two banks.........sterling and Diamond bank.i am really in need of both.thanks.
To fully understand whats happening to Sterling and Diamond, you have to consider their fundamentals and not even technicals, though both are required on the long run.

Sterling's TCI (Total Comprehensive Income) is in a loss position while Diamond is feared to produce a bad result, maybe even a loss in their FY2016. I'm of the opinion that any rally there can easily result in a trap, so until insider news filters in of their results, one may not expect a true change in their SP position. I also expect them to be among the banks that would delay their result this year. Lastly there are fears that there may be mergers or restructuring in the banking sector this year so...traders should tread carefully...

Since banks results (good ones) are going to come in much earlier this year going by the trend being set by Access, GTB, Zenith et al, I guess then that FCMB would rally much much earlier than I previously anticipated, hence time to reload.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 10:45pm On Jan 06, 2017
rebekah2011:
You will need to click the stock symbol and click by price and not order
Ok Thanks, I'll try it next week

rebekah2011:
FCMB, Fidelity, Sterling, Diamond all dey the same category. The optimism in FCMB is what I do not understand.
Really, what category is that if I may ask Sir.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:58pm On Jan 06, 2017
ExLaidback:
No you didn't understand me. i JIJO a bit last year October wit FCMB and afterwards took position for this period. I've had it in my portfolio since October last year after Q3. I'm saying the bull we are seeing this week and maybe next is child's play of what FCMB is capable of. I've been one of those recommending FCMB with fundamental analysis since last year - check my posts.

I don't expect it to cross 1.20 (max 1.25) before pulling back this time in preparation for the main ride. But of course i could be wrong - I'm assuming that their result will not be ready till March.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:47pm On Jan 06, 2017
Morgan really really really needs to do something about their platform in the bid/offer windows, where prices that have been past or exceeded still appear. It doesn't allow one read the ratios and analyse accurately. Now it seems FCMB closed at full bid, which is a big difference from what it was showing with some available offers, but now we will never know. Cos If FCMB closed with full bid, then afraid go catch me o
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback:
angelo82:
Are you for real?What type of trader are you?,I am not trying to monkey hunt on behalf of Locodemus but that stock has been consistent in the past year even survived the Skye contraption.I made money two times just by jumping in/out of it.You can't get it for now at 70k anymore as sentiment favors the stock in the short to medium term and long term perspective will depend on their result which I believe will spring some surprise.
No you didn't understand me. i JIJO a bit last year October wit FCMB and afterwards took position for this period. I've had it in my portfolio since October last year after Q3. I'm saying the bull we are seeing this week and maybe next is child's play of what FCMB is capable of. I've been one of those recommending FCMB with fundamental analysis since last year - check my posts.

I don't expect it to cross 1.20 (max 1.25) before pulling back this time in preparation for the main ride. But of course i could be wrong - I'm assuming that their result will not be ready till March.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:32pm On Jan 06, 2017
locodemy:
i swear i go do 200% here like my big ogas in ucap is doing right now.Ready to hold for 2 years.
grin grin grin We pray o!!!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:31pm On Jan 06, 2017
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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:26pm On Jan 06, 2017
feelamong:
U no go sell this your stock go enjoy ur loot? cheesy
grin grin grin grin grin After all my suffer? No not yet sir. Actually I sold a few units at a loss some few weeks back to raise cash for something, so my average price increased. Now i need to wait small before cashing out for reasonable profit.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:23pm On Jan 06, 2017
While the mid-term upside potential for FCMB is very high, my focus is not there yet. it's time has not come fully yet.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 1:16pm On Jan 06, 2017
fxuser:
UCAP

touching N3 . . expect some sellers to turnn up
I wonder how feasible N4 is within next week
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 2:07pm On Jan 04, 2017
fxuser:
would be tough ! sellers rushed as soon as they saw 2.95
Yeah, the bears have forced it down, but if only...if only it can close above 2.90 grin. 2.91 is ok...
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 12:43pm On Jan 04, 2017
The way UCAP body dey hot... I'm just observing, anyway their dividend will be the final arbiter.

Cos if it closes above 2.9 today...



$$$
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 10:57pm On Dec 24, 2016
OBAGADAFFI:
The survey isn't about trading platform alone, it includes all other services.

Meditrade and Leadcapital use the same platform (Zanibal).
Yeah, well if it's customer service in general, of the three of them - Morgan, Meristem & Investment-One - Meristem wins hands down
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 5:54pm On Dec 24, 2016
yom2:
atleast d coast is clearer, d pre and post election tensions has died down and d budget has been anounced early enough. And there s hope that d efficiency of governance will improve in d comin quarters.
You're right. Anyway fingers crossed.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 5:41am On Dec 24, 2016
fxuser:
surely
Jan 2016 was bloody for , we saw 27/bbl on the 22 Jan , oil has since recovered but the economy lags behind by 3 quarters
Anyway I don't think we would be seeing a bear as severe as this year as a result of the improvement

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