₦airaland Forum

By Waziri Adio

President Goodluck Jonathan touched all the bases and made some grand gestures in his “I-feel-your-pains” speech on Sunday night. He acknowledged the hardship inflicted on Nigerians by fuel subsidy removal, provided rationale for the removal, announced additional cushioning measures, and imposed sacrifice on officials in the executive arms of government. The broadcast was intended to bring down the rising temper in the land, and can be adjudged the best official attempt at engaging Nigerians on this touchy issue so far. But the broadcast failed to deliver the expected bang. It came at least six months late.

To be sure, subsidy removal is a difficult and contentious form of reform the world over. This is especially so on a product that is widely used in an economy without a functioning mass transit system and regular power supply. You don’t need to be an economist to know that the multiplier effects will ripple from different points. Naturally, strong opposition is to be expected. Because of its instant and widespread impact, a strong coalition of the disaffected will naturally emerge, with or without mobilization by the unions and civic groups. However, the major threat to this important agenda is not the usual suspects: it is the government itself.

To say the government has not handled this sensitive issue in an effective manner is to be charitable. Even when a good case could be made for ending the dysfunctional fuel subsidy system, the government, for a long time, carried on as if it had no obligation to persuade Nigerians on the need to endure pains and on how to effectively allocate their common-wealth. What could pass for engagement has been characterized by missteps that have broadened opposition against fuel subsidy removal and the deregulation agenda.

The first major misstep was in allowing the governors to lead the charge. It would be recalled that the governors met with the President in late June 2011 and called for the removal of fuel subsidy so that they could have money to pay the minimum wage. This was the first strategic error. By making this an issue about more money for government, the governors succeeded in muddling the water and solidifying opposition to the reform agenda. Why should Nigerians endure certain pains for uncertain promises from governors who, save for a few, have not given good account of the resources in their custody? The Administration did nothing to reframe the issue. (Yet, the cardinal rule is that you should be the first to frame the issue and on your own terms). Worse, the government keeps courting the governors as allies, even when it is clear that the governors as a group lack both the credibility and the capital to help when the attendant anger expectedly mutates into demonstrations, strikes and riots.

The second misstep is the absence of a clear and well-thought-out strategy for effectively advancing this reform agenda. Endeavours like this are usually preceded by robust stakeholders mapping, scenario building, implementation plan and effective communication. For most part, government appears uncoordinated and confused. Rather than set the agenda, the government seems to be playing catch-up all the time and favouring predictable but ineffective tactics of the past. The announcement was done without tact. The messaging and framing are clumsy. Groundwork is done after. The organizing logic seems to be: carts are better before horses. Evident in all of these is the failure of staff work and strategic thinking. This unfortunate impression was solidified by a number of related missteps such as the lack of clear programme of palliatives until two months after the announcement, the lack of consultation on the content of the palliatives, the way the palliative was introduced, and the so-called consultations with stakeholders after the fact. For close to two months after the take-off date was announced with executive fiat, mum was the word from government, apart from interventions by obviously sponsored groups. In the absence of robust and honest engagement by government, the pro-subsidy camp had the field to itself and succeeded in expanding opposition to subsidy removal.

A related misstep is lack of a clear plan for citizens’ engagement. Possibly, the thinking in government was that the critical success factors would be technocratic competence and political will. As important as these are, they are not enough for a reform that could ground the economy, could further impoverish Nigerians and could complicate the country’s security situation. From the stealthy way in which the policy was announced in October 2011 via a letter to the National Assembly to the refusal to dialogue directly with Nigerians until very recently, the government has come unnecessarily cocky, especially with its mantra of “no alternative” which curiously forecloses discussion or debate in a democracy!

(It is possible that the need for citizens’ engagement was dismissed based on Nigerians’ legendary resilience and the difficulty of sustaining strike action for a while. While that analysis may be partially correct, it is dated. It fails to take account of the widening poverty in the land, the growing frustration of our jobless youths, the widespread anger about perks of politicians, the emergence of new networks of information and mobilization, and the inspiration offered by youth-led uprising in North Africa, the Middle East and the UK. Anyone on top of these trends would know that the day of the docile Nigerians is over.)

Another tactical error is in linking subsidy removal to ending the incentive for corruption embedded in the subsidy payment regime. This is a very pathetic argument that has done a lot to undermine the case for subsidy removal and has cost government a lot of goodwill. It is a widely-held belief (supported by statements from some government officials) that the fuel importers consistently game the system by making claims higher than the quantity they import. The implication of this corruption argument is that the government is too weak to take on the oil cartel (because of their big friends in government) but strong enough to take bold actions that will inflict pains on the people; that the oil importers who are allegedly committing clear economic crimes are untouchables (despite EFCC, SSS etc), and that the people should bear the brunt. How will anyone buy such an argument?

And yet another error is the failure of government to appreciate that this issue is more about trust than spin. All over the world, governments suffer from trust deficits. It would have been expected that the Administration would invest a lot of effort into building trust with Nigerians by front-loading some of the palliatives. But rather than reassure Nigerians, the government chose a shock-and-awe approach. After promising that the subsidy will stay till March/April this year, the Administration removed the plug on January 1st, 2012. This ambush method is an expression of bad faith. It has seriously undercut whatever little trust people have in the government and more than anything else has activated widespread opposition against subsidy removal and the government itself.

The analysis above is not to suggest that deregulation is doomed. The agenda can still be salvaged; the government can claw back to the plot. The President has made a good start with his Sunday speech. But he needs to go deeper: government officials need to sacrifice more. Another look at the proposed 2012 will help. Beyond all these symbolic gestures, the Administration needs to make a tactical retreat. It should bring down the heat by suspending the subsidy removal, then initiating a process of engaging Nigerians with reason and respect.

• Adio is a member of Thisday Editorial Board.
Source: http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/subsidy-how-govt-lost-the-plot/106801/

The south-east is full of tribalism - Just because Ngozi is Igbo. . . . . mchew! Shame of you guys!

I still don't know why Beaf and co. chose to believe this present government. If the Government wants trust then they should earn it. They should take off parts of the subsidy and do something with it to wow Nigerians, then nobody will protest when they take all. All the ones obasanjo took off years ago went on power project($16 billions). Please what was the outcome? We have given our trust to the government in the past and they have failed us. . . .What is the government doing with Billions of dollars earned from petroleum exports? NOTHING! would subsidy money make a difference? I think you guys should have your head examined.

KIM2004:
Can you please show us also the man and some placard of the fuel susbsidy or maybe those around him with the protest slogan. You guys are just trying to decieve us worst than the government you are supposely fighting.

Even if it's not in ogba and it does not have anything to do with the protest. Are you justifying the killing of an innocent  unarmed man? The police killed this guy and this is sheer extra-judicial killing. That is part of what Nigerians are protesting against today. No to Corruption in all sector including the police.

I really don't know how this government want people to survive when already people are spending like 40% of their salary on transportation. Now with the subsidy gone they will spend 80% of their salary. that's too hostile, if they could take 80% off their own allowances then government and people will be on the same page.then we are going somewhere

OmoPastor:
I think these protests have political undertone. what is the occupy rubbish about? jobless entities. on the other hand, GEJ should talk with facts n figures not a blanket talk. also the north have a good reason to now make governance hard for GEJ. i think dialogue will work instead of protests.

What planet are you from? Planet of the apes? Always think before you post. mumu

LeoMax:
Why are you upset ? Some of us chose to protest with a glass of vodka, a DSTV remote and a beautiful model on bed, I no send una o

Ediot!!

Alebros:
Lets not campaign for these oil cabals eating our money in the name of oil subsidy.We should see this issue as an opportunity to demand from the government a removal of their own subsidies which they call allowances.Occupy nigeria should be a fight against inflated allowances and not subsidy removal.

I wonder how you want a mother that lives in oshodi and works in V.I who earns 18,000 naira a month with children pay for house rent and feeding when the cost of transportation a month is 15,000 naira.

Beaf:
Demonstrating against the subsidy removal is a waste of time and amounts to fighting yourself and your kids futures. Save your sweat, bro.
I support going out tomorrow to rally against corruption, waste in govt, for the PIB, true federalism and other issues that make sense.

Beaf, Please tell me why you always evade the question about prosecution. Some people have pocketed billions of Naira that belongs to Nigerians and all the government wanna do is take off subsidy and they walk free? Why are they not investigating these at all?This Government is a fraud!!

LeoMax:
What more guarantee do you want ? Have you heard of SURE ? Have you not witnessed the deliver of over 1000 Busses today ? Have you not heard that 3 Refineries are about to be constructed within the year ?

. You believe those?   then you will believe anything. Why are all these SURE and co  being introduced after the announcement of subsidy removal? why not before? They didn't have any plan but came up with a makeshift plan when Nigerians made Life unbearable for them.

Beaf:
So, after 51 years you suddenly realise that you are suffering from govts inefficiencies? Bravo!
Can I ask what changed so much that it brought this sudden realisation? Is it really out of a "born to rule" syndrome or something equally sinister.

We see through your type, bro.

It was said that when you chase a goat to the wall, it will turn back and fight you but when you chase a Nigerian to the wall, he makes a hole in the wall and JUMP OUT! and that is why our Government don't take us serious.Now STORY HAS CHANGED WE WILL FIGHT TO THE END!!!! No to subsidy removal!! NO to Corruption!!! No to a wasteful Government.
You might ask yourself what Libya was doing for over 40 years before they whoop Ghaddafi's A S S

LeoMax:
@OAM4J
Its a simple analogy. Make your assertions and note that the Governors have security votes but pocket all without any security inputs and the Military/Security apparatus has been well-funded. Its not GEJ that will man the borders. The "owners of Nigeria" usually make those security officials offers they can not refuse. The best solution is stop subsidy !

This is more reason the subsidy should not be removed because there is no guarantee that the money will still not end up in the wrong hands. Since GEJ can not monitor anything. Nigerians will go in pains for nothing then

Beaf:
Until the subsidy is dead and buried, nobody will build refineries in Nigeria, because it does not make economic sense to sell at a loss. Also, until the subsidies are gone, the current refineries will keep getting sabotaged each time they are fixed, so that the "owners of Nigeria" can import fuel. Therefore, the govt is left with a chicken and egg situation of what comes first and they surely cannot waaste money fixing the very same refineries that were fixed last year, only for them to mysteriously go unproductive again.

Fighting the subsidy removal is like fighting yourself. The very same people fighting it today will be the ones asking why the Excess Crude Account is depleting and why we are borrowing. The answer is simple, we borrow to buy fuel and our states do not generate any money for the FG, so each year, the FG's disposable funds get leaner. Its simple as ABC, Nigeria is about to crash for good.

So the masses should suffer for Government's inefficiency? He has names, he knows the companies. Why not prosecute? WHY? Are you brain washed? why do we have laws when it can't work for us. This guy, You are either brain damaged or foolish from birth!

GossipGirl:
It's True!

Beyonce gives birth to baby girl Ivy Blue Carter!

A very pregnant Beyonce reportedly checked into Lenox Hill Hospital on Friday night to give birth to her first child. According to NY Daily News, a staffer stated that Beyonce checked in under the name “Ingrid Jackson”. They booked out the entire fourth floor for $1.3m!!

Music mogul Russell Simmons also confirmed the arrival of the bundle of joy, tweeting “congrats to my good friends Beyonce and Jay-Z.”

http://www.popularcritic.com/2012/01/08/oh-baby-pregnant-beyonce-gives-birth-to-baby-girl-ivy-blue/

If it's true, News like that will not only be carried by unknown press like popularcritic.com,

This story is untrue. Verify story before posting. The baby rihanna  was referring to is her niece. Her younger sister's baby. Beyonce was 4months pregnant when she revealed her pregnancy about 3 months ago, do the maths.And why would Rihanna call herself aunty to Beyonce's daughter? are they related? Do you think it's like Naija where u call every female older than you are "aunty"?

Why is it that every-time the Government mis-managed the people bear the pains? This happened in Italy , Greece and  Portugal also. Now in Nigeria. The economy is heading for the rocks and people have to suffer to save it and not the government. why did we vote them in the first place? enough is enough. GEJ and his cohort must go

Kay-Dee:
Glen Johnson ?

Who else aside him? N'gog and babel was sent packing by Kenny danglish. Liverpool is becoming racial team and that is why things are falling apart for them. I am a liverpool fan but I don't like KD a bit. We need new coach. A racist coach will breed racist fans.

Beaf:
My dear, thousands are eyeing your job.

People like you should be hanged publicly for speaking false when you know the sheer truth. And tell your OGA (since he knows how to use back door to obtain court order)  to obtain court order to arrest the so called subsidy embezzlers and boko-Haram instead of killing the masses with false claims.

muami:
Credit rating agency Standard and Poors has revised Nigeria's economic outlook from stable to positive.

In a statement, the rating agency says the Nigerian government, under President Goodluck Jonathan, has undertaken several important reform initiatives and is tightening its fiscal and monetary stance.

136382208.html#.TwcDkxO4CRw.facebook

How does all these affect a common man No Nigerian as felt any change. What is the purpose of the change if it can't be felt by the citizens?

alj harem:
By Daniel Idonor


“Your economy is doing very well, and many countries in Europe envy your growth figures”, he said, adding that “we have confidence in your democracy, and in your ability to deal with the terrorism and other challenges confronting you”.

See deceit and pure lies! ah!. over 500 people are dead and they are commending him for tackling terrorism?
One boko-haram has not been prosecuted. why the commendation. The western countries are here to kill Africa  

Beaf:
Some of the protesters have low IQ's, which is why they fight a very good govt action to erase corruption. I hope you aren't one?

I bet beaf is GEJ under disguise!!! The same government spent billions of dollars on power without change. Why should we trust them with 8 billion dollars from subsidy( that is my protest). If you think removal of subsidy will make a difference in the economy under the present Government then YOU ARE A FOUL DEVIL   ( Make i copy one pastor)

Beaf:
Make up your mind about what you are protesting and stop yarning out of point.
If you are protesting corruption, then lets all hit the street; if you are protesting the subsidy removal, then that is dumb.

You must be a thief like them. How will a wasteful government suddenly realize the genius of prudence and making the right investment decisions simply bcs there is more money available from oil subsidy removal?

kulutempa:
Really?  What about stealing public funds and failure to tackle corruption.  I guess that legal.

Please ask him o! Bunch of Bastards!!!!

afam4eva:
Do u mean lesbianism, armed robbery etc.

Is lesbianism a problem?NO!  Armed robbery? since it can be curbed by police.I will say it's not part of world's problem. But Terrorism? ah! yes! 80% of terrorism is carried out my Muslims.

Without Islam 50% of the world's problem is solved  

bilaya:
Let's see how those illiterate bastards will wipe out 80 million christians.

How did Hitler wiped out 1 million Jews? you better not wait and see,

Ayo-olu12:
The next muslim that tells me 'islam is a religion of peace' will know no peace for the rest of their days!.

Seconded!!!

Finland:
(directed At "beaf"


WE NEED A CRITICAL MASS OF NEW NIGERIANS TO TAKE HOLD OF EVERY LEVEL OF POLICY MAKING POSITIONS BY 2015. Not a few good men and women whose voices will get drowned in the cacophony of mediocrity.

The more need for us to continue the fight even if the price was brought back. we need to fight for the future, we need to stand up against corrupt people and canker-worm government.

Any sane man will never justify subsidy removal at this time. I read with dismay how the username "Beaf" was justifying the Federal Government then I started to doubt his sanity,

(directed At "beaf"

Since I got back into Nigeria yesterday, I have heard some preposterous arguments that the removal of the fuel subsidy will be justified by wise investments that will benefit all.

My response has been, How will a wasteful government suddenly realize the genius of prudence and making the right investment decisions simply bcs there is more money available from oil subsidy removal?

Will there be less graft & bribes involved in process of issuing the road contracts or power contracts?

Have we sought to honestly find every way we can plug wastage in our leaking economy before we ask a feeble populace to carry the burden of corruption and gross ineptitude of a gluttonous few?

Have the Presidency, the State & Local Governments and the Legislature discovered how to travel without a convoy of 20 cars to the airport?

Can the occupiers of these lofty positions act in honour as Barack Obama did in 2010 when he got every member of his cabinet to take a pay cut, starting with himself?

Within his first few days as British Prime Minister, David Cameron led the austerity cuts (upon his assumption) by cutting down his convoy to 2 cars and one outrider. The Members of Parliament in Britain are now only allowed 3rd class train tickets on official travel (as opposed to their traditional first class train ticket allowances). The Mayor of London now rides a bicycle to work.
Leadership by example!!!

How come our 'leaders' in government earn so much and still spend so much furnishing the same houses and offices they furnished with our money last year?

Do you furnish your office every year? Why should the President, Governor or Senate President?

Wasteful leadership cannot make prudent investments!!!!! Q.E.D

The change we need is not just policy. Its in the quality of mind and persons at policy making positions.

That said, how will we effectively deliver sustainable desired-change?

History has taught us that governments increase fuel prices, the people fight, students riot, labour unions strike, and then after a couple of weeks, the government reduces the price but never to its original price, and everyone feels like a winner, but the poor know and experience the reality of the loss. Then we start the cycle all over again with another administration.

God bless everyone who has stood up against this unjust policy. I salute everyone who has risked their lives to Occupy Nigeria with the message that Enough is Enough.

This is only the beginning of a long and arduous journey. The real Nigerian spring is going to be in April 2015.

WE NEED A CRITICAL MASS OF NEW NIGERIANS TO TAKE HOLD OF EVERY LEVEL OF POLICY MAKING POSITIONS BY 2015. Not a few good men and women whose voices will get drowned in the cacophony of mediocrity.

Let our brightest and best brains begin serious preparations NOW. Don't wait till 2014 to decide you want to make a change by running for office in 2015. It will be too late if you don't start NOW!!!!

As we keep up the pressure of PEACEFUL, NON-VIOLENT PROTESTS through all channels, let another set of emerging leaders (with a heart for the nation and a love for the people) arise and begin to prepare for 2015. We must encourage, train, mentor and empower the right people to go where few dare.

I have committed my life to raise and prepare as many exemplary leaders of excellence to take over the various policy making positions at all levels of governance (federal, state and local)- executive and legislative.

Even when 'they' back down on the fuel subsidy removal, (only because they need the banks to reopen so they can cash some of their billions or so that the airports can reopen so their children can travel back abroad to continue their education), don't let us be deceived again into submission and celebrate the illusion of victory.
Until we change the quality of people in policy-making positions, we won't yet have real and lasting victory.

Don't get it twisted,  The 2015 elections is going to be the opportunity for the real Nigerian Spring.

The real question is , Will we be ready to bring the real change we've always desired with the same zeal and fervor as we show now?

Please don't let today's passion die tomorrow.
The struggle continues today, tomorrow and forever. We WILL deliver the future!

God bless you and God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

This is the time boko haram should unite with people to bomb off the government