Chibuking81:
I have been in this stock business for good number of years, as a child, as a youth and as a man with web of knowledge and experience, if you do not know, know it today that workers salary to the level of billions enter stock exchange market every month. Refering to me as a worker, you are not far from the truth, been a government worker does not mean that I am not a business man, as a successful business man, I became a millionaire at the age of 25 with my first private car at the same age. As academician, I am a graduate with both HND and Bachelor degree holder. As a worker, I am a goverment staff. I stated all these, in order to inform you that I did not enter Nigeria stock exchange market just yesterday.

Hmmmm. See accomplishments ooo choi. I need to start working harder Oo.

Well, make I go chop my kulikuli and drink my kunu as I don start my own austerity measure.

Kagame:


Aks, market intelligence still works like charm!

Everybody knows that the Nigerian economy and NSE by extension is positively correlated to the price of crude ,that is the cheapest intel every investor should have in mind. Then depending on your level of play and market visibility,you can easily know when something is brewing by following the large institutional investors. These guys have more information than the average man on the street does!.

Let me give you a little hint,within the structure of the American consulate in Nigeria,they have an economic team whose duty is to advise american companies/interests in Nigeria on how to protect their investments.

This team regularly hold meetings with top govt economic officials and unfortunately,they are provided classified information that the businessman on the street cannot dream of getting. During the 2008/2009 market crash ,before Sanusi moved against the failed banks ,the american embassy had the information of the failed banks weeks prior and informed their interests appropriately.

So dont assume that market logic and intelligence have failed.That you dont have information does not mean others dont. Information costs money and people who have real wad can pay anything to get the intel. But unfortunately they cant pass across this info to you and I free of charge,so we continue to grope in the dark and act based on our limited information and intelligence.

Very well said sir.

What I do not really understand is this hypothesis in regards to Workers salary been used to drive a mini bull in the market.

Is it the workers that use disposable income to invest that want to drive this bull or what?

Is it the same workers that have their disposable income been reduced due to the effects of devaluation and double digit inflation (that should start finding its way into the system from this month) that want to drive this bull. Ok oooo

Well my 2 cents advise to those workers is to hold their money and save it for the rainy days ahead cos no one knows how bad things might get. Things dnt look so rosy and might get tougher as we progress into this 1st quarter.

Charlesnerd:


Surprised to hear naira has crossed 200. Is that for real bro?.

I bought 192 from a small BDC yesterday ,mallam offered me 193.

While Interbank closed at 188 yesterday .

Wahala dey.

My oga, Na Wetin I dey hear ooo. Someone just told me it is N205 today.

currentprice:


see stock commando

i will be the first to remind you of your post next week

$ 202 to naira today

oil below $50

Buari/Jona still there

Oga currentprice, help us remind am abeg. The NSE knows how to teach us humility when we least expect it.

FranklinRich:
I just dey waka pass come hear say CBN Governor no do anything yesterday....ok oo.

N200/$1 here we come.

My people how market?? I hear say Naira don pass N200 for $1.

The CBN governor thought that the naira was rightly valued @ N192.The market has decided to help him price it rightly.

Where is the grand papa bear Na....Still waiting patiently.

I just dey waka pass come hear say CBN Governor no do anything yesterday....ok oo.

N200/$1 here we come.

Very interesting week ahead..waiting to see how the CBN Governor and the MPC members react to JP Morgan's decision to remove us from the emerging market indexes if liquidity conditions don't improve in the FX market. This might be the week we see $$ at N200 in the parallel market if there is a sell off from the bond market by foreign investors. The pressure on naira might be heightened due to increased $$ demand from foreign investors. ***fingers crossed***

Also on the global scene, All eyes will be on the ECB as they meet on Thursday. Mario Draghi has to make a far-reaching decision on when to begin Quantitative Easing for the eurozone and by what magnitude this QE will be.The decision by the Swiss national bank to abandon the 3 years old currency peg of the Swiss Francs and the Euros last week seems to have boxed Draghi into a corner suggesting that he might decide to start this policy right away. ***fingers crossed***

Watching to see how the NSE reacts to all this. In the interim, I have decided to follow Oga Chibuking's advise by accumulating money with my stockbrokers while i watch all this in 3D.

Charlesnerd:


Book value is a company's valuation of itself based on the balance sheet information made available to the public. In contrast, market value is the investors valuation of the company based on his/her interpretation of the information made available to him.

If you are a prospective/existing FBNH shareholder and your company provides the following information to you;

-We intend to retain as much profits as possible because we plan to increase our tier 1 CAR from 15.3% to a much safer margin.
- Our loan portfolio comprises 30 -40 % oil and gas.

As an investor,faced with a double whammy of dwindling oil price and the prospect of receiving a lower dividend than you got last year, would it be ideal to value FBNH at N15? . If you decide to purchase the stock despite the perceived risk, you would definitely wish to put a cost to the risk,which gives rise to the differential between the book value and market value.

Interestingly,only the future can determine who made a better assessment between the company and the investor. So investors buying right now believe that risk aside,the company is absolutely right with its valuation of N15.

In any case,majority of banking stocks are trading well below their book value.FBNH is no exception.

Well said boss. Even me has downgraded my target price to accumulate more FBNH as the realities on ground has showed me that we can not get our earlier expected N1 dividend for the 2014 FY. If I see 50-60kobo collect, I go thank God, carry the money go buy my usual Kunu and kuli-kuli.

Aks:
@Charlesnerd, well said however there are so many coys trading below both book value and Market value owing to combination of socio economic factors beyond predictions of the gurus who have now been relegated to nothing but TRIAL & ERROR analysis masters

Oga Aks, It is not really the analysts fault. As economic/geopolitical situation adjusts, these analysts have to adjust too. The problem is that some analysts are slow to adjust to the realities on ground.

I think to be successful in this market, you have to become your own mini analyst and be prepared to tweak your investment strategy according to the happenings in the economic/political scene at any particular time.

I remember when oil prices started falling, notable analysts from Goldman Sachs and even T Boone Pickens(famous oil magnate) all said oil was not going to go below $50 but after oil showed no signs of stopping its earlier declines,people started changing their forecasts and analysis to reflect the situation on ground.

Agbalowomeri:


Mercy is this the same person that u told us his prediction last year? Men if it is that prediction was exact. We better take note of this one.

Meanwhile there are indications already that the bulls are coming back 2mr. The ECB has announced massive quantitative easing (QE) today which has impacted on oil price. Oil prices are going back up, likewise the stock market as predicted by this prophet. For those waiting till election, best of luck.

Oga Agbalowomeri, I dnt think the ECB has officially announced this yet . I think the Swiss National Bank's action of abandoning their 3 year old currency peg of their currency (Swiss franc) against the Euro caused the market to start anticipating that a massive QE policy by Mario Draghi could be initiated come next week when the ECB meet.

I am unsure how this will prop up crude oil prices. I was under the impression that the reason why we saw an inflation in oil prices during the US QE period was because oil is priced in $$. The $$ keeps strengthening against the Euro and if the euro zone starts their quantitative easing, I would expect their currency to Weaken further against the $$. The Eurozone,no doubt will be awash with euros but as they convert this to $$ to speculate in the oil markets, wouldn't this increase the demand for the $$ thus making it stronger and in turn pushing down oil prices since it is priced in $$. Moreover the supply/demand mechanics in the oil markets is still not balanced (supply still outweighs demand),so any increase in price might just be temporary.

Well Na siddon look I dey as all this na just speculation.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

feelamong:


kai!! Mr market is a bastard!!

sebi na this stock market makers dey try wedge for N9 just one month ago?

Chai!!

Hahahahahahahahahaha. Same thing with FCMB, who would think that some months later, someone will get it for N2.00.

Na everyday this NSE dey teach me lesson, Anything is possible in this market oooooo.

**humblywalksaway**

lancee:



Hopefully ..cash is KING

Yes oo until another buying opportunity comes up. Still waiting for sugar below N5. Also noticed that Uacn is gradually approaching its 5 year low. Any price below N20 will start looking very attractive.

lancee:
Nse must survive this turbulence

Yes oo. I keep pondering if what we've seen so far is the grand papa bear or it is still ahead? or is it season 4 or season 3 of the bear (cos I lost count) as my ogas here will say . Any ways I have fastened my seat beat cos this roller coaster ride (NSE) seems like it just got rougher.

chukyjones:
this one OPEC is prepared for oil at sub $20, what is in it for our beloved NSE?

http://businessdayonline.com/2015/01/stocks-may-hit-new-lows-as-opec-girds-for-sub-20-oil/

This will make our market turn into one that I like; which is a buyer's market. We might see Seplat far below N200 With crude oil prices at such levels. other fundamentally good stocks will not be spared too and will get hammered. I sure will be there to pick up the pieces. .

immanuello:
Yes,that's very true.jump into transcorp at #3.02 and out at #3.15 now,Also out of oando at #15.78 now after bought in at #15.01,hmmm i must be smarter than mr market.

presently looking to at another new time low as oil gravitates to $24 soonest perhaps another........ .... offing.

Oga immanuello, You get mind ooo. My liver no reach to play this your kind game.. .

In other news: brent crude now hovering around $48 after breaking a key support price of $50 while the NSE is now trading below 30,000 bpts ; which is also a key support level. Interesting times ahead!!!!

lancee:




what happened to NSE during june 12 1993 era till around 1998 abacha's regime ?
Was there any shut down ,hopefully nothing will happen by his Grace

I like this question. I believe the veterans in the house who were active in the market during this period will help us with this question. Where is Pa Emma sef, this is his area of expertise!!!!

immanuello:
what do you think is happening in d market, i see that by monday the going low scenario will still continue or what do u suggest.

I think it might be mixed. The market seems to be trying to take a breather today from the sell off witnessed earlier in the week. My guts tells me we have not seen the end of this bearish period(as my ogas here will say d grand papa bear) . I expect more volatility as we draw closer to the elections. I placed my next trap for FCMB at N1.75. If it gets there good, if not I am on to the next one.

9free:

Hmmm..... You dey sure say SUGAR go fall to that price? Anyways, I the wait again @N5.01

Abeg make una allow sugar reach sub N5

kotlass:


But I think the market is unfair to FCMB relative to other banking stocks except there is an information I need to have but I do not.

Maybe some Oyibo people that think that Nigeria will break up and that declining crude oil prices will never rise again are trying to transfer their wealth to you Sir.

feelamong:


Managed to pluck in some at 2.04 today..

now dat I have settled my kids fees.... this market can kill me or I will kill here now!

let the games begin.....

NB I have also set my traps for transcorp at N2.80 and UBA at N3.20

My oga at the top, All these your prices make sense no be small. I was able to sneak into FCMB from the back door @ N2.01. The price was too sweet to pass by with a forward EPS of about 90kobo and P/E ratio of about 2.2 times earnings.

At all at all I go see 20k dividend (close to 10% dividend yield) collect use buy kulikuli.

mpi210:


Bank Revenues to drop and results might not be they used to be.

I don't think this will affect their 2014 year end result, if anything I want to believe that this might put a strain on their revenues for 2015 but again knowing this our banks, they can always recover these lost revenue via another channel.

9free:
At this rate, one may possibly pick Skye, Diamond, UBA, and FCMB at N1.00
Just saying sha...

Omo this will be serious. At this price levels, a stock like UBA will be selling below 1 time earnings. If this is not a fire sale, I dnt know what it is. Na buy 1 get 3 free!!!!! . And to think they are doing a right issue at the moment seems somewhat comical to me....

immanuello:
Wow but let see what will happen at crude oil @$25 becos i read us shale may still pump out and still make profit at $30 while at the same time saudi arabia can produce at $5-$6,hmmm interesting times awaits us. So comrades watch intelligently!

I remember reading somewhere some time last year that shale oil will become uneconomical at around $60 pb and that shale oil producers will be forced to shut in production around this price levels, thus reducing supply and causing crude oil prices to rebound. I personally never believed that and as it turns out, that was false. This supply glut doesn't look like it's going to end soon at least for this first quarter so I would not be surprised if we hit the $30 range in a couple of weeks/months.

Saudi Arabia has also continually given us the vibe that they are not going to cut production no matter where prices fall to. If you ask me, I think I support them cos any move by OPEC to cut production will lead to non-OPEC members ramping up production and taking away market share from OPEC members. So whatever price rebound we see might be short lived cos as soon as prices rise the non-OPEC members will flood the oil markets once again. For any cut in production to occur, all OPEC and non-OPEC members must agree to cut some production so the burden can be shared by everyone.

To be honest, I do not see this happening anytime soon so it will not be out of place to expect more crude oil declines. In all of this I pity oil producer countries like Venezuela and Nigeria that seems to be short-changed by all this. We will continue to feel the pinch from the pressure this will exert on exchange rate stability thus heightening the volatility in the market.

What is going on right now in my opinion in this market is just a transfer of wealth; just like wealth is presently been transferred from crude oil producers to crude oil consumers, wealth will be transferred from foreign investors to local investors(who understand the cyclic nature of the market and will be patient enough to wait things out)

Aks:
Zenith, Guaranty and FBNH on free falllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Brent crude has finally broken the $50 support for the first time in over 5 years, at this rate we are looking at a sub $50 price soonest. This will continue to put pressure on the naira and in turn intensify the sell-off on the NSE. Looks like we might see the all share index going below 30,000 before this weeks ends wiping out all the gains we saw in the week leading to xmas. Interesting times ahead!!!!!

shinaboy:
Chibuking preparing for Armageddon. Nice forward thinking

I like this. With the panic getting to such heightened levels, we might see dangote sugar @ N3 and Flourmill @ N20. Provided We are still agege bread and puff puff, I don't mind owning more of these companies at these prices.

immanuello:
Sir Frankrich,respectful greetings o!i love ur insightful macro and niger-economic trend road tailing in a bid to profit from all these trends.Now first viewprediction has come to pass then what next? How can wedecipher the signal of the realistic future with no emotion attachment to possibly make some intelligent and smarty profit from this and this is the area the coming nigerian election needed to be factored into this well calculated smarty game.why do we profit from if buhari get there?...............answers...............secondly what do we profit from gej emergence as well??......what are the stocks and firms that can be more prosperous and positive during a no nonsense govt (no corruption,no poor corporate governance, no weak institution again.Then let have the list of them that can survive and thrive much berra.Thanks all,season's greetings to u all.

Oga Immanuello I hail ooo...The first quarter of this year seems like its going to be a turbulent one not only for Nigeria but for other countries as well, as we can see from the happenings in the US, Eurozone,Japan,china and other emerging economies that the economic environment seems to be full of uncertainties. Having said this, the Nigerian economy seems to be experiencing double whammy as declining oil prices is hitting us from one side and the risk associated with the heated political arena is hitting us from the other side. I think we have not seen the end to crude oil declines even though some people might disagree but i would rather leave that discussion for another time.

In my opinion, the Nigerian economy will continue to face economic headwinds irrespective of whether Jonathan or Buhari gets voted in as the reduced revenue accruing from crude oil will affect either governments alike. I expect to see double digit inflation rear its ugly head soon and we might be faced with further tightening(possible increase in interest rates) from the CBN sometime within the year. I also envisage some acts of violence as an aftermath of the elections from pockets of individuals on either side of the geo-political divide (broadly speaking:North and south) within the 1st/2nd quarter of the year. All of this headwinds, i believe will be affecting the stock market to some certain degree as we progress into the year.

Presently I am not taking any positions in the market and i have decided to hedge against the naira while i watch to see how low stocks will go. Something tells me that we might see another round of devaluation or better still some more depreciation of the naira past N200. This exchange rate instability will not also augur well for the market. The NSE seems to be faced with another round of sell-offs and depending on how low prices go I might be accumulating some beaten-down stocks before the elections. Even though my guts tells me that the market might take a longer time to recover if Buhari wins this forthcoming elections, i have decided not to use this criteria in my decision as i ultimately believe that the market will recover at the end of all this. My strategy is to wait things out after the swearing in later in the year for the next 12 - 18 months irrespective of who wins. My preference is to key into stocks that will give me a 10% and above dividend yield and i am hopeful i will get some within the next 2 months.

otokx:


Looks like another classic bull trap

Spot on boss. With WTI crude trading below $50 for the first time since 2009 and Brent crude hovering around $53 at the moment, the upstream sector seems like one that will face a lot of headwinds this first quarter.

cadno:

I have observed that the NSE market is not a place for long term investment...its a JIJO place..
I cld remember i bought FBNH in 2009 at N9 or so...now its 2015...what is FBNH shares worth, only the 1 for 10 bonus makes the diff...which is nothing.

Someone who bought nestle in 2009 might have a different story to tell. The NSE could be merciless sometimes and been somewhat flexible could make you more gains than losses most times.

I bought some stocks during the sell offs last year with the intention of holding it all into this year, when I saw the appreciation in the 5 days leading to xmas, I had to offload some cos I felt it was a good opportunity to make some gains even though it was never my intention to sell my stocks that early.

Now those stocks have started coming down and I can then reposition. Never did I plan to JIJO on those stocks but the opportunity came and I took it. Who knows those stocks might come down to my junction and I buy them again and it doesn't rise up for the next one year. The markets could be irrational like that.

Personally I buy stocks for the long term but If I see some good profits in the short to medium term, I typically just take some money off the table cos I never know how that position might span out in the next couple of sessions.

I plan to take advantage of the expected volatility that might befall the NSE this first quarter by accumulating some good stocks, I want to believe that my strategy will work again (knock on wood)if not well I might just restrategize.

My fellow investors..Happy New Year to you all.

The Nigerian Economy seems like it is going to experience some turbulence this first half of the year. I want to believe that this will create opportunities for the astute investor who will be prepared to start reaping the gains by next year and beyond. 2015 will be a great year for wealth transfer for the investors who are prepared to take advantage of the downturn in the economy which will trickle down to the stock market and also the real estate market. Wish you all a great and adventurous 2015 ahead...

MiCarino:


The bull trap no be small. And only just last week, a certain someone on this forum was was quoting millions and beating his chest that based on his long experience in trading the market, the bulls we're bound to rage stronger on the bourse this week.
I was tempted to hold onto my Oando but I summoned courage and sold at N19.75, now I'm waiting at junction N14

I have paused all accumulation till I see the grand papa of the Bears come next year

#braceup

hbrednic:


Uba and transcorp currently under their control,this time they will be merciless

Seems like a week of profit taking. Well I took most of mine last week Wednesday cos the price appreciation in the 5 days prior to the 24th was too good to be true. Let's see how low prices come to, we will continue our gradual accumulation in due time.