We should stop all this and look forward to survive 2016. It will be rough

phabulux:




Very wise response!

However, I guess what the fella said rings true. Of those comments (you said 28), only one comes from outside the axis of South-south south-east.

This government is pretty slow at getting to work, but, I'm convinced that when it finally does, this earth will rip. Let's give them more time.

Please do your count and report back how many names you think are IPOB youths. Also go to Sahara reporters FB page and post your findings

989900:


Go thru the below at your leisure, not perfect (slight adjustments here and there could be made for exchange rates and the like), it will help your perspective.

December 10, 2011, if you stopped at the Mobil filling station on Old Aba Road in Port Harcourt , you would be able to buy a litre of petrol for 65 naira or $1.66 per gallon at an exchange rate of $1/N157 and 4 litres per gallon. This is the official price. The government claims that this price would have been subsidized at N73/litre and that the true price of a litre of petrol in Port Harcourt is N138/litre or $3.52 per gallon.

They are therefore determined to remove their subsidy and sell the gallon at $3.52. But, On December 10, 2011, if you stopped at the Mobil Gas station on E83rd St and Flatlands Avenue in Brooklyn, New York, USA, you would be a able to buy a gallon of petrol for $3.52/gallon. Both gallons of petrol would have been refined from Nigerian crude oil. The only difference would be that the gallon in New York was refined in a US North East refinery from Nigerian crude exported from the Qua Iboe Crude Terminal in Nigeria while the Port Harcourt gallon was either refined in Port Harcourt or imported. The idea that a gallon of petrol from Nigerian crude oil cost the same in New York as in Port Harcourt runs against basic economic logic. Hence, Nigerians suspect that there is something irrational and fishy about such pricing. What they would like to know is the exact cost of 1 litre of petrol in Nigeria .

We will answer this question in the simplest economic terms despite the attempts of the Nigerian government to muddle up the issue. What is the true cost of a litre of petrol in Nigeria ? The Nigerian government has earmarked 445000 barrel per day throughput for meeting domestic refinery products demands. These volumes are not for export. They are public goods reserved for internal consumption. We will limit our analysis to this volume of crude oil. At the refinery gate in Port Harcourt, the cost of a barrel of Qua Iboe crude oil is made up of the finding /development cost ($3.5/bbl) and a production/storage /transportation cost of $1.50 per barrel.

Thus, at $5 per barrel, we can get Nigerian Qua Iboe crude to the refining gates at Port Harcourt and Warri. One barrel is 42 gallons or 168 litres. The price of 1 barrel of petrol at the Depot gate is the sum of the cost of crude oil, the refining cost and the pipeline transportation cost. Refining costs are at $12.6 per barrel and pipeline distribution cost are $1.50 per barrel. The Distribution Margins (Retailers, Transporters, Dealers, Bridging Funds, Administrative charges etc) are N15.49/litre or $16.58 per barrel. The true cost of 1 litre of petrol at the Mobil filling station in Port Harcourt or anywhere else in Nigeria is therefore ($5 +$12.6+$1.5+$16.6) or $35.7 per barrel . This is equal to N33.36 per litre compared to the official price of N65 per litre. Prof. Tam David West is right. There is no petrol subsidy in Nigeria . Rather the current official prices are too high. Let us continue with some basic energy economics.

The government claims we are currently operating our refineries at 38.2% efficiency. When we refine a barrel of crude oil, we get more than just petrol. If we refine 1 barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil, we will get 45 gallons of petroleum products. The 45 gallons of petroleum products consist of 4 gallons of LPG, 19.5 gallons of Gasoline, 10 gallons of Diesel, 4 gallons of Jet Fuel/Kerosene, 2.5 gallons of Fuel Oil and 5 gallons of Bottoms. Thus, at 38.2% of refining capacity, we have about 170000 bbls of throughput refined for about 13.26 million litres of petrol, 6.8 million litres of diesel and 2.72 million litres of kerosene/jet fuel.

This is not enough to meet internal national demand. So, we send the remaining of our non-export crude oil volume (275000 barrels per day) to be refined abroad and import the petroleum product back into the country. We will just pay for shipping and refining. The Nigerian government exchanges the 275000 barrels per day with commodity traders (90000 barrels per day to Duke Oil, 60000 barrels per day to Trafigura (Puma Energy), 60000 barrels per day to Societe Ivoirienne de Raffinage (SIR) in Abidjan, Ivory Coast and 65000 barrels per days to unknown sources) in a swap deal. The landing cost of a litre of petrol is N123.32 and the distribution margins are N15.49 according to the government. The cost of a litre is therefore (N123.32+N15.49) or N138.81 . This is equivalent to $3.54 per gallon or $148.54 per barrel. In technical terms, one barrel of Nigerian crude oil has a volume yield of 6.6% of AGO, 20.7% of Gasoline, 9.5% of Kerosene/Jet fuel, 30.6% of Diesel, 32.6% of Fuel oil / Bottoms when it is refined.

Using a netback calculation method, we can easily calculate the true cost of a litre of imported petrol from swapped oil. The gross product revenue of a refined barrel of crude oil is the sum of the volume of each refined product multiplied by its price. Domestic prices are $174.48/barrel for AGO, $69.55/barrel for Gasoline (PMS or petrol), $172.22/barrel for Diesel Oil, $53.5/barrel for Kerosene and $129.68/barrel for Fuel Oil. Let us substitute the government imported PMS price of $148.54 per barrel for the domestic price of petrol/gasoline. Our gross product revenue per swapped barrel would be (174.48*0.066 +148.54*0.207+172.22*0.306+ 53.5*0.095+129.68*0.326) or $142.32 per barrel. We have to remove the international cost of a barrel of Nigerian crude oil ($107 per barrel) from this to get the net cost of imported swapped petroleum products to Nigerian consumers. The net cost of swapped petroleum products would therefore be $142.32 -$107 or $35.32 per barrel of swapped crude oil. This comes out to be a net of $36.86 per barrel of petrol or N34.45 per litre.

This is the true cost of a litre of imported swapped petrol and not the landing cost of N138 per litre claimed by the government. The pro-subsidy Nigerian government pretends the price of swapped crude oil is $0 per barrel (N0 per litre) while the resulting petroleum products is $148.54 per barrel (N138 per litre). The government therefore argues that the “subsidy” is N138.81-N65 or N73.81 per litre. But, if landing cost of the petroleum products is at international price ($148.54 per barrel), then the take-off price of the swapped crude oil should be at international price ($107 per barrel). This is basic economic logic outside the ideological prisms of the World Bank. The traders/petroleum products importers and the Nigerian government are charging Nigerians for the crude oil while they are getting it free.

So let us conclude this basic economic exercise. If the true price of 38.2% of our petrol supply from our local refinery is N33.36/litre and the remaining 61.8% has a true price of N34.45 per litre, then the average true price is (0.382*33.36+0.618*34.45) or N34.03 per litre. The official price is N65 per litre and the true price with government figures is about N34 per litre (even with our moribund refineries).

There is therefore no petrol subsidy. Rather, there is a high sales tax of 91.2% at current prices of N65 per litre. The labor leaders meeting the President should go with their economists. They should send economists and political scientists as representatives to the Senate Committee investigating the petroleum subsidy issue. There are many expert economists and political scientists in ASUU who will gladly represent the view of the majority. The labor leaders should not let anyone get away with the economic fallacy that the swapped oil is free while its refined products must be sold at international prices in the Nigerian domestic market.

The government should explain at what price the swapped crude oil was sold and where the money accruing from these sales have been kept. We have done this simple economic analysis of the Nigerian petroleum products market to show that there is no petrol subsidy what so ever. In the end, this debate on petrol subsidy and the attempt of the government to transfer wealth from the Nigerian masses to a petrol cabal will be decided in the streets. Nigerian workers, farmers, students, market women, youths, unemployed, NGO and civil society as a whole should prepare for a long harmattan season of protracted struggle. They should not just embark on 3 days strike/protests after which the government reduces the hiked petroleum prices by a few Nairas. They must embark upon in a sustainable struggle that will lead to fundamental changes. Let us remove our entire political subsidy from the government and end this petroleum products subsidy debate once and for all. It is time to bring the Arab Spring south.

Izielen Agbon Izielen Agbon writes from Dallas, Texas. izielenagbon@yahoo.com

He is former HOD , Petroleum Eng Dept, former ASUU chairman University of Ibadan, trained many operators in nation's energy industry with pratical experience on our practices and policy focus in the last 20yrs

http://saharareporters.com/2011/12/15/real-cost-nigeria-petrol-dr-izielen-agbon

Helloooooo

PassingShot:


To start with, GEJ failed woefully in the way and manner he tried to remove the subsidy (if there really was).

You don't wake up one morning to announce such removal and increase in pump price without sensitizing the nation; without discussing with major stakeholders.

And the partial removal that he did, what did we get in returns?

The SURE-P program, as has been revealed just last week that the employee figure was inflated from 12k to 35k, is another evidence of the scam.

The buses that were promised, where are they today? The refineries, where are they?

Bottom line:
1. I believe there was no true subsidy in the first instance. What we had was an imaginary subsidy.

2. If there truly was subsidy, GEJ could have handled the removal in a more responsible manner than just announcing through the radio, on January 1st 2012, that subsidy was removed. No where in the whole world will such action go unchallenged. He needed to have discussed it with major stakeholders the need to remove subsidy. IBB, Abacha and even OBJ removed some subsidy and we witnessed how they handled it.

3. Nigerians, by rejecting the subsidy, were able to reduce/limit their loss had we allowed full subsidy removal.

4. Now that majority of Nigerians believe we have a more trust-worthy president in Buhari, they will accept a subsidy removal (if there was any) and even at that, the fuel pump price will still remain around 100 naira per liter.

Watch and see.

Changed your mind yet?

PassingShot:

These people will bury their head in shame soon when they find out that we still buy fuel at about the same price now even without "subsidy".

We have been scammed by Jonathan and his cohorts but soon the whole world we tremble when revelations start to come out!

PassingShot:


You will be surprised that even after the "subsidy" is removed, fuel will not sell for more than 100 naira a liter. You know why? It's because most of what is claimed as subsidy for fuel consumed locally is false. No subsidy in the true sense of that word.

okolochyke:


Bros you have edited your post 20 times because of me alone

E no bother me

The fact still remains, the majority of people that made those comments do not represent the majority of Nigerians

Keep wishing only IPOB youths are feeling the heat. Nigerians are suffering.

Have you gone to the FB page of Sahara Reporters? After you have, come back and report your findings

okolochyke:
The OP and other Ekpa people can continue to deceive themselves

Twitter has over 1 billion users globally

Nigerian twitter users are over 20 million. You cannot put up 20 comments and tell us that it represents the feelings of Nigerians

It is even more ridiculous when 90% of those making the comments are from one section of the country.

Those people do not represent the majority of Nigerians. This is a fact.

The majority of Nigerians are still trying to take in the enormity of the corruption that took place under Jonathan.

The people complaining here are most likely Ipob youths who do not like Nigeria anyway.

This comments are from Facebook not Twitter Sorry ooo, please go to Sahara reporter Facebook page, see for yourself get your preferred comments and post.

Moreover, I posted 28 comments, only 7 comments look like IPOB sounding names, making it less than 25 percent of the comments. Or you one of those Nigerians that think any name that is not Hausa or Yoruba is IPOB

Hunger knows no party. Nigerians are more interested in food to feed, jobs, and an improvement in lifestyle. This is not the first time loots have been recovered, it would not be the last. Only a delusional person that thinks Nigerians prefer loots recovered to food, jobs, light,FDI etc. if the fight against corruption does not translate to better lifestyle for Nigerians, then there is still corruption somewhere.

Are we going to sit down to listen to blames?? A wise person knows when to stop a propaganda and puts the machinery to something positive. More Nigerians will be angry if the minister continue to think the Government Nigerians have voted out needs to come back to fix things.

Lalasticlala

More

Comments culled from Sahara reporters FB page

…Diezani Arrested In London

Baring any last minute change of plans, the Federal Giovernment has
concluded arrangement to commence the trail of former Pretroleum Minister,
Diezani Allison-Madueke and all those fingered in fraudulent activities in
the oil sector which has cost the country over $50Billion, highly placed
sources within the security apparati and the Presidency, have told
Pointblanknews.com.

Diezani Alison-Madueke, has already been arrested today by a combined team
of Interpol and Met Police in London, a source in London confirmed to
Pointblanknews.com.

Already, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, The
Department of State Security Service, DSS, the Independent Corrupt
Practices Commission, ICPC, the Ministry of Justice and other agencies set
up to probe the Petroleum Ministry and the Nigeria National Petroleum
Corporation, NNPC, have all concluded reports and findings and forwarded
to the Presidency.

One of the sources privy to the investigations, but pleaded anonymity told
Pointblanknews.com that the President is bent on commencing the trial in
earnest because of his belief that a large chunk of the monies stolen by
companies and individuals, who operated in the oil sector, would be
recovered.

It was gathered that findings from investigators indicated that a sum of
$4.5Billion which was supposed to have been deposited into the Federation
Account by Jide Omokore and Kola Aluko’s Atlantic Energy have been traced
to foreign accounts. The accounts, according to investigators are in LGT
Bank, Switzerland with account number 2006431.

Investigators also disclosed to Pointblanknews.com that funds were also
found in the name of Atlantic Holding Ltd in LGT Bank with Account number
2005108 and Atlantic Energy DMCC Ltd with account number 2006822 in LGT
Bank, Switzerland.

Omokore and Aluko, according to investigators are one of Diezani’s front.
The are alleged to have carried out the fraud in the oil sector under the
cover of the former Petroleum Minister.

A source hinted that while investigators were unearthing damning
documents, Omokore, on the advice of Diezani, offered to pay $500million
back to the Federations account but a visibly angry President Mohammadu
Buhari was said to have rejected the offer, insisting the refund of the
full $4.5billion.

Investigators discovered that in 2013, Atlantic Energy lifted about
2million barrels of crude oil with cash value of $240million, but paid
$68million only. In 2014, investigators also discovered that Atlantic
Energy lifted about 500,000 barrels of crude oil at a cash value of $54
million but paid nothing to the federation account.

Chief among those slated for prosecution in the next two weeks are those
indicted in the fraud associated with the petroleum subsidy where Billions
were allegedly stolen by marketers and those invovled in series of fraud
in the Petroleum sector, a source privy to the investigation told
Pointblanknews.com.

Others slated to face trial for varying degrees of fraud and money
laundering are: Transfigura which is unable to account for $80million,
Ontario Oil which defrauded the oil sector of $135million, Aiteo
$150million, Sahara Energy $120million and Ocean Marines, PPP Fluid Mechanics

Those linked to the companies are: Tonye Cole, Tope Osinubi, Ade Odunsi,
Tunde Ayeni, Idahosa Wells Okunbo, Walter Wagbatsoma, Benny Peters.

Pointblanknews.com gathered that some serving and former officials of the
Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, were linked to several
fraudulent activities carried out in the oil sector and as such will be
prosecuted also in two weeks.

The source gave the names of those former NNPC top guns as: former GMD
Austen Oniwon, Reginald Stanley, Haruna Momoh and Sam Okeke, a former
Group General Manager, New Business Division of the NNPC.

Others officials of the Petroleum sector for trial are: Managing Director
of NPDC, Mr. Tony Moemeke, Executive Director, Commercial, PPMC, Mr. Frank
Amejo; Group General Manager, Crude Oil Marketing Division, Mr. Gbenga
Komolafe; Former Managing Director of NPDC, and later NNPC Group Executive
Director, E & P, Mr. Abiye Membere.

The source alleged that the former NNPC officials and Oil Marketers helped
or connived with former Petroleum Minister, Diezani Madueke to defraud the
nation of over $50Billion.

Transfigura was reportedly unable to account for $80 million, while Aiteo
apparently gulped down $150 million. Other oil firms named in the
defrauding of the Nigerian people are Ontario, which failed to account for
$135 million, and Sahara Energy, accused of skipping the payment of $120
million to the government.

Aiteo, owned by Peters and Ontario who were curiously awareded several oil
contracts allegedly gave investigators several forged documents and cooked
up records. An investigator also disclosed that the two companies are most
directly linked to Mrs. Alison-Madueke.

A Swiss non-governmental organization, the Berne Declaration had revealed
how Nigerian oil marketing companies perpetrated widespread subsidy fraud
running into several billions of dollars.

Titled “Swiss Traders’ Opaque Deals in Nigeria,” the Berne Declaration
also accused the NNPC of colluding with international oil traders to
defraud Nigeria.

The Swiss report revealed that Sahara Energy, Rahamaniyya Group, Aiteo
Energy Resources Limited, Ontario Oil and Gas Limited, Tridax Energy,
Mezcor Limited and MRS Group had established subsidiaries, also called
letter-box companies, in Geneva, Switzerland

The Aig-Imoukhuede committee had recommended that all the indicted
marketers refund N382 billion to government.
Mr. Imoukhuede had however advised Nigerians not to expect that all the
money would be recovered.


http://pointblanknews.com/pbn/exclusive/50billion-oil-fraud-diezani-aluko-omokore-aiteo-sahara-energy-omokore-wagbatsoma-for-trial/

Princecalm:
well on a real sense it is still too early to start comparison but with way things are moving, we will have something to cheer about before Buhari's fouth year in office.

I agree it is too early. The good thing is that his criticism though partisan does not have a negative effect. Keep up the good work mr B but try and remain objective like this post

kaboninc:


Brother, you're a genius!

Thank you. You are one too. Saw your superb replies to Jp on the other thread. I read every single one. Wanted to teach him a lesson, but I have been busy with work.

Thank you once again

E mi, redundant at 50

Saw this on Facebook and decided to share.

Caption this

Campaign promises

1 days and 5 hours in office

As the popular saying goes, uneasy lies the head that wears the crown, and as with previous democratic presidents of Nigeria, it’s definitely note going to be an exception for the President Muhammadu Buhari.

The Buharimeter is an initiative of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) towards monitoring and holding General Buhari accountable for his promises during electioneering.

The platform, built by BudgiT, is set to launch the day Buhari takes over from Dr. Goodluck Jonathan – May 29, 2015.

The internet played its part during electioneering process and CCD is now taking a step further towards holding the Federal Government accountable.

http://www.buharimeter.ng

Cc: lalasticlala




...

adanny01:


I am average at the moment with fuel at N87 if the government makes petrol N200, they made me poorer. Note that i wasnt poor but the government made. Does that sound like a good government to you? Dont forget, its not that i am buying a car, i own one and used to maitain it with my income, but suddenly i cant afford to maintain it not because my income changed or my responsiblities to family has changed. Remember its just not me alone but the entire middle class down to poor Nigerians.

You are average at the moment, you will become poorer if your Naira becomes weak. 25% of your worth was wiped away because your Naira was devalued. You have to defend the Naira. You will become poorer if you continue to enjoy free PMS. Deal with the cancer and live. Get a new skill and get employed in the real sector that will boom. Make Harsh choices now. A stitch in time saves nine.

adanny01:

About this, you can tell me that, but no government can tell me or any Nigerian that. It tells me the kind of person you are, a person who does not give a hoot about the poor and will even take from them. Thats the kind of mind those cabals have, you have it, hence your stance. This statement of yours will not just be irresponsible but outright rudeness assuming you are a government official.

No Politician will tell you to your face. Politician will always be politicians. They need the votes of the masses. Technocrats would not give them votes, masses will

jpphilips:


Governments give their citizens tuition loans to go to school, give mortgage loans to own houses and also car loans, a secondary school drop like you is suggesting that the facility should be given to innoson to buy buses so you will be employed as a conductor in one of those buses.

Meanwhile, in other climes, Toyota alone will boast of selling over 10,000 cars in one year in a country whose responsible Govt provided car grants for the citizens, that volume of sales will encourage Toyota to commence car assembly, that in place, a chain reaction of different supply chain contractors and labour will materialize, multiplied by all the car makers in the country.

The mortgage given to citizens will stimulate the real estate market, chain reaction of building materials manufacturers will create all the labour needed to stimulate the economy, if your only Idea of Government grant is to give to innoson so he will give buses to the citizens, then your thought process is fvcked up!!

Innoson doesn't buy, he builds. Loans to citizens in the form of low interest rate encourage people to invest in Real estate market is investing in a real sector (Construction). Every kid knows this. Anything that will build manufacturing is gold to any economic planning. Do you know the gain of manufacturing a pin in an economy. No way PMS subsidy will do that. I am done with you.

jpphilips:


If I had seen this post of yours, I wouldn't have replied any of your post, other government give facilities for their citizens to afford basic necessities and you are asking someone to park his vehicle and trek?
who is this guy?

Give facilities to the real sector. Let your state Gov. give thier citizens mass transit. Innoson produces diesel mass transit buses. give him the facilities, buy his cars and so you grow your real sector. Your government do not need to pay for something you can afford. It is a suicidal approach

jpphilips:
gohome post=34160169]



The reason you gave is baseless and any person who is close to the downstream sector will think you have completely lost it.
I must be inebriated to argue that part with you again, it is your right to believe any Nonsense you wish to believe, next you will argue whether Jesus was crucified or shot to death.
Such childish discussion is not worth my time.




Most of the things you say here are baseless and has no bearing with the reality on ground, trust me most people dont care to read them, so save your strength.
You said your solution to "cabalocracy" is making laws, have you made the laws yet? But you are pushing for subsidy removal without putting the law in place, whatelse is putting the cart before the horse? You see how you always shoot yourself in the foot.
In your tiny mind, you think it starts and ends with making laws abi? You forget that for a law to be effective, there should be an existing implementation framework that will implement the laws, do you have it yet? and you want to remove subsidy? sorry for you!!

You also believe whatever you want to believe to. Thats your cup of tea. Oh so you agree that laws and implementation will eliminate "cabalocracy". Why dont you protest to your so called NA members that consumes 3% of your budget. Alot of framework have been written to suit the Nigerian system.

Its a good thing you have agreed that an existing implementation framework that will implement the laws is necessary. Buhari should achieve this. Give us a blueprint. I want to see my budget and Spending to rich 20 Trillion in 2019. I want to see us earn from exporting petroleum products. If he does not, now that he has people like your you that trust his magic hands, I think it will be hard to do it when people starts acting up.

Provide workable solutions not insults.

jpphilips:
gohome post=34160169]





[color=#000099]I have warned you to stop using UK and US to juxtapose the Nigerian economy, they are not a reflection of each other but you wont listen, Your Igele wearing, Harvard trained, World bank frustrated, Yale certified Finance minister was literally drenched in her own sweat, looking practically helpless last week while the cabals dealt her some serious blow!!
That is what happens when you use the western model to confuse the Nigerian economy, Let me give you a shocker (not that you deserve the information anyways).

The ECA (Excess crude account) that compounded this problem guess who created it? A UNN trained street economist with a first class, in 2004, exactly 11 years ago in the person of prof. chukwuma souldo, Iweala allowed so much political interference in the account that she practically lost control of its management.

To manage the account was a very big problem for her, in 2012, she managed to balkanize the account into three
FGF, NIF and SF, see where it has landed us. Soludo with this account stabilized our economy at $38/bbl the lowest oil price of the Obasanjo administration, faced with two economic Melt down, according to Soludo, our economy was practically immune to the worst financial trauma ever in history after the great recession.

Soludo as the coordinator of the economy at the time was able to hold the economic front for nearly one and half years, before he broke and devalued from 131 to 155 naira, this was the same government that paid off nearly all our debts to the tune of $12b, Initiated the NIPP to the tune of $16b our only hope of getting electricity right.

Compare with the Igele wearing, harvard trained, world bank frustrated, Yale certified failed finance minister, just a drop in crude price, (jonathan's lowest was $41/bbl with a peak of $115/bbl) this amounted to ECR of $40/bbl at $75 benchmark.

By August 2014, iweala has broken, Nigeria declared recession in less than 2 months of this crisis, the flood gates of borrowing was opened today, we are indebted to the tune of $63.7b, five months into the crisis, (Jan 2015) Nigeria borrowed to pay salaries, the Naira went loose from 155 to 202 against the dollar, thanks to Iweala's western model of solving Nigeria's problem. Why am even comparing a god with a mere mortal?

The learning point here is that the street Economist laid the foundation of Nigeria's 11years future while the Igele wearing, Harvard trained, world bank frustrated, Yale certified finance minister could not consolidate on Soludo's gains neither could she improve on it for the better, because she is stuck with the western model of economics. A word is enough for the wise!!




I was the one that told you how the devaluation affected the marketers, it is an insult to say I dont know. As we speak, out of the 59b released, 31b, was earmarked as the Forex differential in this last subsidy, if iweala understood my point and did the needful, i dont give a fvck about your opinion. you think the Nigerian economy run on google.






I doesn't matter who I am, what matters is how well I understand the situation, I don't expect you to know that anyways!!

Soludo's shine is Iweala's Shine. Iweala's lowlight is SLS lowlight.

989900:
[s]I am sorry my post are always long, but it's just plain difficult to find short cuts getting the points across effectively with this oil thing.[/s]



Buhari:

What was the reaction of party leaders when you said that?

"Well, how can they react to what is a proper way of doing things? I can have my individual opinion about the people who will occupy the offices. I know that some people imposed the leadership of the National Assembly and it didn’t work well for them, so I shouldn’t be making the same mistake.
One burning issue is fuel subsidy. I believe you are aware of the queues in major cities like Lagos and Abuja. The fuel importers say they are unsure of the direction of the new government in this area. Have you considered maintaining or withdrawing this subsidy or are you questioning whether it didn’t exist at all?
One of the problems I have, other than the military, is the petroleum industry where I served for three and a half years under General Obasanjo. When people start talking about this subsidy I honestly get confused. I will tell you this, and I hope it will answer what you want to know. Back then we had a refinery in Port Harcourt, which was refining 30,000 barrels a day of Nigerian crude.
Later, it was upgraded to refine 100,000 barrels a day. Another refinery was built in Port Harcourt to refine 150,000 barrels per day of Nigerian crude. So, Port Harcourt alone had the capacity to refine 250,000 barrels per day of Nigerian crude.
But when I found myself as the Minister of Petroleum I set up another refinery in Warri for 100, 000 barrels per day of Nigerian crude and the Kaduna refinery a 100, 000 barrels per day. So Nigeria built capacity to refine 450,000 a day.
Four Hundred thousands of which is purely Nigerian crude, but 50,000 was imported. The type of crude could be Venezuelan, which could be a bit heavier. But the lighter ones - kerosene, aviation fuel, diesel, PMS of different grades could be produced from our crude because Nigerian crude is about the best in the world.
If you could recall, after finishing as Minister of Petroleum, I subsequently became Head of State. You remember, I appointed Professor Tam David West as the Minister of Petroleum. When we rounded up bunkers, collected their illegal jetties and allowed jetties for only big firms which were doing production and development in the country, we were shocked that we had too much fuel.
We had to begin to export 100,000 barrels per day. Don’t forget that we didn’t stop at building refineries, we built more than 20 depots during my time, from Port Harcourt to Ilorin, Makurdi, Suleija, Maiduguri and Kano. More than 3,000 pipelines were laid to connect them. A number of stations were also built to take the trailers off the road, save lives and the infrastructure on the road. It is more economical because each trailer uses fuel."
"We did all that in this country and we didn’t borrow any money as far as I know. It’s Nigerian money. From each Nigerian crude, whether Akwa Ibom, Bonny Light or whatever it is, you can work out how much products it will give you; how much petrol it will give you; how much diesel it will give you if you want to produce diesel. We could tell how much Nigerian crude cost, the cost of transportation from there to the refinery, the cost of refining, the cost of transportation to the pump stations and maybe 5 per cent go for overhead.
I can understand if Nigerians pay for those costs. But somebody is saying he is subsidizing Nigerians. Who is subsidizing who?"

But they argue that the price should not be the same in Lagos and Daura, for example?

"It has to be the same because it is the Nigerian crude.
But they consider the cost of transportation?
Why didn’t it make any difference when we were around? Why did we build the network of pipelines? Why did we build the network of depots? What can Nigerians benefit from the God-given gift of petroleum? No refinery is built unless there is an in-depth research that there is enough reserve of up to six layers to be produced."

The argument I have heard is that refineries are aged. Mostly, they are performing at less than half of their capacity…?

"You can’t defend these corrupt and incompetent people. You can’t defend them. There used to be what they call turn-around-maintenance. You close the refinery in order to overhaul and clean it. What we did: we asked our producers, we need various refined products of this type at this time when the refineries are being cleaned. Take this type of Nigerian crude and bring us the refined products.
What we don’t need, we will calculate and pay you as fees for refining and transportation. If it is more than what the crude can handle, then we take it from the treasury. But you are trying to justify all these frauds by saying the refineries are aged.
Of course, they are actually aged?
They said the refineries are aged. The pipelines are leaking. There is vandalisation. Who ordered the vandalisation?"

Does it suggest that you don’t believe in the subsidy? So, you are not going to agree to its continuation in anyway?

"I would like to be on ground and find out what really has been going wrong. Why is it that people are doing round-tripping with the Nigerian products and take money from the treasury? Some people are still in court. You know about it. So, I’m not taking anything for granted. But I will try and find out what went wrong."




TAM will cost N99B. It will take about 15-18 months. It has been started since last October, NNPC says they should be functioning at 90% + by end of 2015 to early 2016. Amakpe international refineries (12,000Barrels/day) in Akwa Ibom should be on already . . . dunno.
I've posted so much earlier about the present (May 2015) state of our refineries (Gov't), and other private ones coming on . . . the truth of the matter is, with the level of corruption and the avenue to tap into the subsidy level scheme/scam, the administrators of both government and private refineries through all means, including vandalism, have made sure it doesn't work.

Our present refineries can work and cover our needs, or almost cover our needs with proper administration.
'Modular Refineries' do not need years to be built, it can be done in months depending on the size, and you can have multiple modular refineries. And they do not cost billions in a gulp.




As we speak, we all DO NOT have the full scope of the stench that's engulfed the oil sector; in few weeks, we will know.
For example, most believe the 40 million litres of PMS, we consume actually includes those of Benin Republic, Cameroun, Niger, Togo and e.t.c, in essence we are subsidizing the consumption of PMS in those countries from our own purse. And a large portion of the crude for the finished products we even pay and subsidize, are or same stolen crude. I posted a breakdown given to the 'Punch' by NNPC earlier.
And yes, a devalued Naira hurts more than subsidy removal, but the average Nigerian does not get it.

If power can be more stable, and our refineries are working, so we do not need to import, or import just a little by special arrangements, the Naira appreciates, you do not need this present kind of subsidy/scam. And PMS will even be cheaper than the present N87/litre. The only reason we will not be paying extremely low pump prices we will be 1. to prevent trucking to neighbouring states, 2. to make sure the extra we pay acts as fuel tax, which we hope we can trust with the new president.

Thank you for this.

Buhari did not answer my question in that article. You only answered it by half. I would not hold you responsible if something goes wrong, I would hold Buhari.

He should answer the simple project management questions and spare me history.

Toby77:


Obj wasn't sincere. It's as simple as that. Finish. No long stories about that. A phased subsidy removal will work if there is no corruption. You also mentioned Jonathan, Jonathan was even less sincere than Obj was, Jonathan makes OBJ look like a saint. The TAM of the existing refineries were never done despite the monies allegedly sunk into them. It's all lies. We need a government that demonstrates a zero tolerance policy towards corruption and ensures that money budgeted for infrastructure is actually used for the said infrastructure. If that disposition comes, and I believe it would with Bihari, gradually improving our domestic refining capacity can start while a phased removal is gradually implemented. That is still the best solution out of this massive problem

I like your approach. trust is a good way to start. Let us see what his policies are. Buhari has said so many things, but none has been said about the solution to the downstream sector. None to my hearing. Will he fix the refinery? Will be build new once? What capacity will we refine in Nigeria? Will he stop subsidy? Will he phase it. What are the timelines. Till infinity? What are the cost? Where will the money come from. These are basic project management questions. I have heard no answer to the question. Wishing and acting are to different things. You can talk the talk, but how will you walk the walk. It is easy to critic GEJ and OBJ. This is your best solution, it is not mine. My best solution is to get the cancer out. I dont believe in romancing problems. PMS removal would not kill us. No one has prove why the good and services should go up. If you do not pay for the removal of subsidy by buying PMS just like 90% of countires around the world, you will pay for it by a devalued Naira.

trillville:



Please as ridiculous as this statement may sound, stop using figures to make any case for or against the removal of subsidies because we have no idea how much Nigeria's total earnings is. If I have no knowledge of the amount of money I have, how do you expect me to properly budget?

Subsidies may have to be removed at some point, but a perception that the government is fighting corruption needs to be created first and also a reduction in the cost of governance before any sensible government should consider removing subsidy.

This may not be the logical way to go based on our economic situation, but it is the political solution to our crisis. Please read Ben Bruce's advice to Buhari.


What evidence other rhetoric repeated by politicians that the removal of subsidy will lead to companies building refineries in Nigeria.

Are you aware that there is a glut in refining capacity on earth as at now?

By the way, a friend may offer to patch my roof for me at no cost to me.

It is good to care about how much your potential earning is, but what is more important is how much your government propose to spend and how much they spend eventually. Do you know because of incompetencies some ministry do not spend all the monies given to them. So the parameters while your government is waiting to earn your trust and perception is for you to look at government spending and Budget

Toby77:


Your basic argument doesn't add up. Bihari won't be as stupid as to attempt the outright removal of subsidy. It's a phased removal, a genuine one at that not the fake one done by Jonathan or said to be done by him. A phased removal coupled with the gradual building of refineries and the revitalisation of the old refineries. Outright removal would just play into the Cabal hands.

OBJ has proved that phase removed does not help. He did it for 8 years, it did not work. Do you know how many firms he gave licences to build refinery, Over 18 people. None built a pin. Jonathan phased removed subsidy for 4 years, it did not work. The only thing that worked was Dangote commencing to build one. I heard it will be ready by 2016. Do you have a picture to show the progress. 16 years of wealth of experience for Buhari to tap. He should learn. How will Buhari magically do that is what beats me. Thankfully Dangote has been able to start one. Heard it will ready by 2016. Can any body post a picture of the progress of the refinery? Also, having a refinery even with access to free crude, will not bring the price down. Dangote will sell at international market price, if not more. If you force him to bring down his price, he will sell to Togo, Chad, Ghana or any other country willing to buy. Investors in is company with not take crap. They have invested, they shall reap like their global competitors.

revitalisation of the old refineries is not possible. Ask OBJ how much he sinked doing that. Can the Nigerian government maintain anything? The kind of government workers I know needs to be all sacked and new people brought in. Nigerian government workers to do not have the capacity. They are not well trained, not well motivated, Do not have the required skills.

Keep thinking for Buhari. He has granted tons of interview, has he told us how he will fix this mess? No. So we can only wait and see.

Esdb3:


You are following influenced figures you really do believe nigeria makes just 4 trillion?

And Not all 170million people will depend on the government. We have other sources that we make wealth from that we are not tapping into. see we are blessed just take away corruption and we will even agree to pay tax then.

170 m are the number of children you have, they have the potential to depend on you.

Also, we have a messiah. Let's see what your uninfluenced budget will be. Then we will see the definite or surplus

trillville:


Ok, I am in a dire situation. Should I just take my children's pocket money away without evaluating all of my options?

What if I can fix my roof at no cost whereas my child would be forced to prostitute her body to lecturers if I do not give her the pocket money?

The first step to solving a problem is to define it, simplify it, a provide an appropriate scope for it.

We have a major problem that is not going to go away anytime soon. Oil prices may remain at these rates for the next 3-5 years.

We have a number of different cost saving measures to take and everything should be on the table to be discussed from corruption, cost of governance to fuel subsidy.

Which of these three should a responsible government tackle first and why?

Even though fighting corruption is a difficult task, the government must be perceived to be doing its best to fight it, because corruption is morally wrong.

Again, a reduction in the cost of governance may not be sufficient to balance our budget, but the government cannot be seen to be asking Nigerians to make sacrifices without making deep sacrifices itself.

I hope you understand my point on perception now? I used to think just like you do a few years ago. I am a bit wiser now.

Pocket money and you cannot pay school fees? You simply cannot fix your roof with no cost. Unless you are a magician. New York City is a city with massive infrastructure but needs 15 million to run it. You want to use 4 Trillion to run a country that not only have a population 20 times bigger than NYC but also a country that has a military immigration customs, etc. smh. My brother you simply can not fix your roof at no cost. Nigeria at this rate can not fix its roof at with even 100 trillion Naira. You want to buy a roll Royce or a Ferrari for a price of Toyota. Keeping dreaming. Give them pocket money and let them no go to school. You will even pray they are prostitute. Your kids will be Boko Haram.

Unlocking new potential is the only way. We have not be able to unlock new potential because of mismanagement. The major mismanagement is the payment of subsidy. Removal of PMS subsidy won't not affect anybody. Instead it will drive a boom in that sector. You can unlock 200K jobs and 5 million indirect Jobs in the first 3 years. Do you know the savings in foreign exchange? It's going to be 2 billion dollars a year. Exportation of pet products will earn us 1 billion a year. In all the government will home to add another 2 trillion to its budget. Which of course is not enough but a step forward not backwards.

You are actually making deep sacrifice by allowing your government to pay for something you can afford. Your government has devalued your naira by 25%. You are paying for petroleum at a price 25% more. Don't be deceived. It is an illusion that removal of PMS will kill is. It won't.

In the next four years, always look at your budget. Most Nigerians don't care about budget, but will want to have fantastic airports, power, refinery and roads. I laugh. Are we going to see 15 Trillion Naira in our budget after fighting corruption? We have to know.

TheGoodJoe:


GEJ is gone but his tentacles is alive. Until we curb corruption, we can not increase the suffering of the masses. Develop refineries. We do not need total subsidy removal to do that. Reduce the wastage in government, probe corrupt officials and recover stolen funds. Build the damn refinery if it means taking a loan like GEJ's Boko loan. Then kill subsidy with a boost in local petroleum products production.

Can you prove to me why removing subsidy on PMS will increase the suffering of the masses ? If you can read my comment, you will see where are disproved your illusion

You can talk about GEJ and your past leaders legacies for all I care, but if you don't talk about but goes into your next budget, you are doomed. If you don't talk about the financial policies that will be made in the coming months, then your are doomed.

adanny01:


I bet you dont own a car or probably dont travel or too rich to travel by road so petrol is pretty useless to you that only a petrol power generating set is worth mentioning. Gen set is the only machine you agree that uses pms abi? We should convert our cars and all those interstate buses, taxis etc which are the main consumers of petrol to diesel abi. The petrol generating set which has a very expensive big brother in the diesel gen set will now be the main power source abi?


How can you get this done with corruption that is in the subsidy regime still existing in the government? Is it not when the subsidy fraudstars are jailed and those in government are locked up that any government plan will work? Removing subsidy wont reduce corruption but just make Nigerians poorer and some corrupt Ministers and Perm secs richer.

The way to go is removing corruption bro.

If you do not have money to buy PMS at 200 Naira, park your car at home and sell it if you see a buyer. It means you are too poor to maintain a car, so why buy one in the first place. It also means Your country is too poor for you to own a cars.

If the public transport system is too expensive because of 200 Naira PMS, trek. If you cannot trek, occupy your state gov palace and tell him to provide mass transit for you. All modern mass transit run on diesel.

If you want to travel, enter a macopolo, they run on diesel.

We can survive with PMS at 200 Naira.