₦airaland Forum

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

Tinubu will win the SW states, while Atiku will win the NW,NE and NC votes and at the end of the day Atiku will win the general election

PraizHim:
People came to collect their share of the SPVs

Nigeria is a very corrupt society and many live off corruption and the electorates don't give a damn voting corrupt person. Voting is controlled by region, tribe, religion, party and economic interests.If Nigerians vote based on puritanism, nobody will be talking about Atiku or Tinubu.Tinubu is relying much on PMB, north governors and they are not giving him the necessary support.Every indices favour Atiku to win the election, powerful northern APC elites are working for Atiku secretly

dre11:
Tinubu Far Weaker Today In Southwest Nigeria, Awolowo Was Far More Formidable –Dele Momodu



https://saharareporters.com/2023/01/23/tinubu-far-weaker-today-southwest-nigeria-awolowo-was-far-more-formidable-dele-momodu

I have said it countless times that Atiku will win this election thanks to the greed of people like Wike and the inability of the South to unite politically.
Some of us supported Amaechi and some PYO during the primaries, immediately BAT won the primaries, I told people that power will go back to North.
Dele's analysis is matured and without prejudice, I repeat unless there's divine intervention that will make Obi to win, Atiku will surely win this election.

MrEverest:
Nigeria of 2023 is no longer Nigeria of the past when South used to be afraid of North. The South has become increasingly frustrated with Nigeria and Atiku succeeding Buhari with help from Kwankwaso will make them totally hopeless and fed up with Nigeria.

Tambuwal withdrawing to enable Atiku win PDP primaries was annoying but Kwankwaso doing same for Atiku at the polls will be totally unacceptable.

So, Northern leaders must prevail on Kwankwaso not to drop for Atiku. If Atiku wins on his own, it will be more acceptable even though he will still face issues.

All the Yoruba contestants stepped down for BAT during APC primaries with the exception of Bakare and PYO, and nothing happened, if Kwankwaso steps down of Atiku nothing will equally happen apart from Atiku winning the presidential elections easily. Keep on campaigning for BAT

MrEverest:
Insinuations are rife that Kwankwaso may soon drop his ambition to support Atiku. To add credence to such assertions, many of his party members are defecting to PDP. On the face value, he has the right to drop his ambition and support whomsoever he wishes to support. However, doing so may eventually lead to the breakup of Nigeria.

I will explain:

It's generally believed that the next president should be from Southern Nigeria since Buhari who will be handing over, after 8 years, is from North. It will mean that a fulani Muslim man from North hands over to another fulani Muslim man from North!

Now add the fact that fulani herdsmen militia are currently kidnapping, maiming and killing Nigerians on a daily basis across the country!

The same fulanis have been ruling Nigeria for so long with absolutely nothing to show for it except decay and stagnation.

I hope you are getting the picture now?

So, this is what will happen that may eventually trigger the breakup of Nigeria should Kwankwaso supports Atiku and he eventually wins:

1. The South will be united for the first time in history and they will come to the realization that Nigeria was rigged against them.

2. Militia groups and separatists groups will spring up all over South and they will enjoy massive support.

3. These militias will be heavily armed to confront fulani herdsmen militia in the bushes and highways.

4. As usual, the army may want to defend the fulani herdsmen militia but in doing so will lose credibility among Southerners thus making the situation worse.

5. Attacks on oil facilities and calls by oil producing states for resource control will become rife.

6. The national economy will collapse throwing millions more into extreme poverty.

7. Inter ethnic clashes particularly in the SW will become more frequent and they will begin a push for regional autonomy.

8. IPOB and other separatist groups will become more enboldened in the East and calls for breakup will become rife.

9. Federal government authority will become so undermined, weak and overwhelmed. Out of desperation, Atiku, through the national assembly will grant some concessions like increased percentage allocation to oil producing states & special status for Lagos but it will be a little too late.

10. Massive protests will hit the entire South calling for regional autonomy for South, but they will eventually begin to call for separation. UN and other foreign powers fearing a full blown war and its devastating effects on the rest of Africa and even Europe in the form of refugee crises will call for peace talks. It will end in a date fixed for referendum.

Nothing will happen apart from an easy presidential victory for Atiku

9jvirgin:
Why can't these criminals support Peter Obi? All the Igbo elites should be ashamed of themselves. What a disgrace!

Peter Obi shall be crowned to glory.

There is nothing like Igbo elites, all man dem for his corner

Felabrity:
Wike should stop disgracing himself

Atiku has a higher chance of winning the election compared to Tinubu

sure

plaindealer:
Eniola Badmus's fake news death was one of the fake news and evil acts the endsars and ipob terrorists used to destroy Lagos, but she's here alive well.

To God be the glory..

Who's Eniola Badmus please?

olril17:
Of course there are no brown roofs in SW.
stpid Igbo tribalist.
On one hand,they want support for obi in Sw and have given him 25 percent in all SW States.
On the other hand Igbos can’t always wait to mock Yorubas with anything whatsoever.
Obi will loose woefully and you will go back to shouting Biafla.

Do you think Obi's loss will affect the Obi's more than any other tribe? Obi's loss is a loss to youths, downtrodden Nigerians, a setback to Nigerian rebirth and lost opportunity to start getting it right in Nigeria. Nigerians will be ultimate loser if Obi loses this election

Though Atiku might win, Nigerians especially the youths and the masses will surely live to regret if they fail to vote ObIdatti in the coming elections. The way I see that Obi if he fails to win, he is not ready to contest in future election

Have you left your fumbling and failing principal Tinubu?

BigYash:
God bless her and God bless you too.. God sent an angel to you.. You're indeed a lucky soul. Accept the Lord as your personal Lord and Savior.. I can assure you, that you will never regret it,if you serve HIM with your whole heart.. Gloraay!

God bless you, apart from eternal life one gains from knowing God and Jesus Christ His true son, the peace that comes from know nothing but Christ the crucified one can never be gotten from anywhere. The problem most of us have is that we seek God's blessings and gifts before Him and His righteousness, once we get the blessings or what we are looking for, we backslide.
Coming to the people making merchandise of the gospel, Jesus Christ asked not to worry about them, we should do what they say and not do what they do. Their judgement is waiting for them according to this Scriptures:
In their greed they will make up clever lies to get hold of your money. But God condemned them long ago, and their destruction will not be delayed.2Pet 2:3

Lostchild:
I remember seeing one thread here on nairaland of a boy who complain of him having financial depression. He said he had no food, no money, no light, no television to comfort him.

I was shocked when I saw some here asking him, have you given your life to Christ?

Some even comment, have you accept Jesus as your Lord and savior?

I was like, wtf is wrong with these funny people? A person is depressed and you are asking him to accept Jesus in hunger?

Jesus Christ is the only one that can carry any load we are Carey once you can drop it at His feet and learn of him. People that asked him to accept Jesus Christ as His Lord and Saviour are not wrong. Jesus Christ said come unto me all you who are weary and heavy laden and will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn of me; for I am meek and lowly in heart: and ye shall find rest unto your souls.Matthew11:38-29

All these gun men are mercenaries used by certain politicians to disenfranchise the SE from voting enmasse for PO. One thing is that if God says yes nobody can say no and God be for you nobody can be against you

Nijablast:
Mr Uche is his name e don suffer tire for one of the villages in Ondo

Ondo people are not tribalists like your state, Atiku won their in 2019 despite Akeredolu being the governor then.The votes will be shared between BAT, AA and PO

HawkToBar:
Tinubu Mandate, I stand gidigba

Don't worry, na your brother dem church, they will cancel the invitation or the summit no need to fear

They will cancel it, they won't be invited na today
I know church stuffs in Nigeria

MissLeslie:
The only state in Nigeria been rule by LP is Ondo state, under Mimiko so there is no way Obi will not have 25% here, very close to Edo state and Igbo guys full Ore well well.

Ilaje people will vote Obi and Ikarre, Obi will get enough votes, they are not culturally rigid in ondo state like other SW states

Pakute:
Forget about propaganda, wherever there's a massive amount of natural resources, investors would definitely come in with huge dollars, irrespective of banditry or skirmishes of terrorism in the area. SE cannot boast of half the FDI going into other regions, considering the height of Ipob terrorism that has blighted the region. If SE had any resources to boost, foreign investors would have been interested in the region.. Just an honest observation.

SE has sound, educated, productive human resources

Thanksful:
Is not late, the police should trace him and pick him up asap

which police

mobilemaniac:
Thiefnubuu is empty brained and his followers are very well aware. They just would rather have a half-dead man there than vote an Igbo man.

I won't be surprised if Tinubu gets 97% of votes cast in SW votes, after all you hardly Yoruba man attending any church with an Igbo General overseer no matter the miracle happening there. Yorubas love their own so much whether it's good or bad. They are not like Igbos that like to pull down their own, let me end here, this is a public forum

Moh247:



Everyone seem to be fabricating alsort against Tinubu

Anyways Awolowo, Abiola all faced it, even Obasanjo

I pity future Yoruba Politicians that can't see the ongoing trend

INEC offices are getting burnt in Anambra state, Lagos has protected it's INEC facility and giving people PVC... Somehow they are cooking up another Lamba..

They Burnt TVC office, Burnt Oriental Hotel, burnt BRT, burnt Oba of Lagos Palace trying to stop Jagaban on orders of Nnamdi Kanu... Yet Jagaban keeps shining


.

I thought OBJ is not a Yoruba man, why including him on the least?

Racoon:
The baba soope tyranny Tinubu urchins and miscreants made the city to become. This simply confirmed to all sane and well discerning citizens that notoriety of the agberoism lifestyle Tinubu have turned the Lagos of his generation into.

On the election day, there will be violence in areas dominated by non Yorubas especially Amuwo Odofin, Festac Town, etc to reduce votes for Obi. Traders in markets will be monitored to ensure they vote Tinubu or lose their stall, a lot of votes buying will go in Lagos. This is just testing the mic

[quote author=God1000 post=120022022]It shouldn't be so under normal circumstances.

Not giving people their PVCs for whatever reason is gerrymandering.

Why should I disguise myself to get my PVC[/quote]
Because you are in Nigeria

Make this election come nah so that everyone go sit down and rest.
Any Atiku is coming

Moh247:




Even when Ladoja got bullied by PDP Jagaban was there for him,

late Yinka Odumakin, Dele Momodu many NADECO guys

Asiwaju helped many



.

And what about it? Tinubu is old and weak, he is supposed to retire, he is not fit for the job of a president of 200m most populated African nation

SpecialAdviser:
I really love Nsukka people. If they like you they don't hide it. They will die for what they believe in.

Simple, humble and sincere people, I miss this town of my Alma mater

Edos and Deltans are solidly behind Obi and they are outspoken about it. Obi is the candidate of the downtrodden poor masses and working class Nigerians not Igbo candidate

donphilopus:
Obi would remain in the race to divide PDP's bloc votes in the southeast and South South.

Asiwaju lo kan.

Very pedestrian political analysis

FreeStuffsNG:
You Igbo imppstor of Yoruba will still eat your words again. Your polotics of lie, ignorance, hate and bigotry ti lule. You are the one described as unstable in the book of James in the Bible. You look into the mirror and soon forget how you look. smh

check my signature for free stuffs!

This is bygone naj

Coolsperm:
Ok nice one, Yoruba Christian's will never vote for Muslim Muslim ticket, we are not fools

Yoruba christians will vote for Tinubu, Yorubas are first Yorubas before Nigerians or any religion. They are more of religious liberals unlike Igbos, Hausa, they are not rigid adherents of Muslim or Christianity, they are more of cultural and tribal oriented. Apart from Oyedepo, no Yoruba pastor has come out openly to tell their congregation not to vote Muslim/Muslim ticket. Yoruba man can easily die defending his culture/ tribe than defending his religion
Tinubu will win SW votes by a wide margin

Ogaga87:
Manipulators who installed wicked criminals...

Pity the same youth who ran after hidden palliative are the ones cheering them for continuity..

The ones cheering are hungry and like Esau will sell their birthright for a morsel of bread. To a hungry man bread is god