₦airaland Forum

Trump is not well.

Holy Shit. Kamala did it. Made Trump lose his mind.

Obrigardo:
These same maga idiots will be the first to remind you that Clinton was on top of the polls a week to the general election in 2016.
These fools believe the polls will save the rapist felon but they are so far from reality and what's happening on the ground.
The republicans who will be voting for Harris will break records but maga dunces will never see that.

Yup. They love polls only when it serves them. Mostly, every poll had Trump losing in 2020. They won't speak on those.
But
1.) It's still too early. A lot to happen before election day.
2.) Regarding Nate Silver. He was way off during the 2022 midterms. His polling and forecast were largely weighted toward Republicans because he used some of the Republican poll like Rasmussen in his forecast. He even predicted the Red Wave. He got fired from 538 shortly thereafter.
3.) I'm convinced some of these pollsters are underweighting the anti Roe v Wade repeal vote.

bemeruca:
They are different.

Model is what bookers use to predict match.
Polls involve calling likely voters and random people with a place to get what the opinions of the people in that area thinks or the way they will vote.

Nate Silver does not call people to build his data.

Bwahahahah. I almost fell out of my chair reading SpaceX's post contradicting you.
Why don't you run your mouth some more and tell us all how SpaceX understood the difference between a poll and Silver's model?
Lol...
Do you ever get embarrassed of being wrong and embarrassing yourself?

SpaceX:
what is the difference between a poll and a model?

Both are data-driven to give detailed insights about the event and to predict the future.

Lol. Why did you edit your other post?
But you are asking the wrong question. What you posted was Silver's election forecast. Or as Silver calls it, a probabilistic guess. It's basically something like there is a 61 percent chance it won't rain. Which means that there is still a 39% chance it will rain. So, his forecast is saying that at this moment there is a 61% chance Trump will win. Polls are more exact figures which try to represent the exact amount of people that will or will not vote for a candidate. Both use some form of modeling.

bemeruca:
What he said is not what you are implying.
He said the honeymoon period is over and true polls are starting to come out.

That's is true.
There is a period at the end of that sentence, then he quoted Nate Silver's model.

Most people who read his post got the impression he thought it was a poll. Some even felt the need to clarify it.
Most people except you. Ask yourself why that is.
Enjoy your bullshitting and gaslighting.

LordAdam16:
To be clear, this is not a poll.
This is a model forecast of the candidates' probability of winning.
...
-Lord

Obrigardo:
The shameless copy-paste maga cultist debunked again.

basilico loco's new title will become Copy-paste maga cultist CPMC going forward. He's earned it.

What a douchebag

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/jd-vance-ohio-police-no-reports-haitian-immigrants-harming-pets-rcna170271

This is some wildly dangerous,racist and offensive stuff.
Whatever politicians are amplifying this are playing a very dangerous game.
I guess this is this years rendition of the border caravans.

They are right. Nothing good comes from this.
All Nigerians should be concerned.

LordReed:
An interesting read. However there is one factor the writer doesn't contend with. Religion. It is perhaps simultaneously the biggest and the least spoken about driver of this situation. A lot of religious sentiments will need to be dismantled to go in the direction the writer suggests.

But, the author isn't arguing to disengage fully from Israel. The author is arguing for normalizing the relationship and getting it back to where Israel is the junior partner and the US is the senior party. Or the US engaging in ISrael in a way that advances our own interests rather than allowing Israel to advance their interests while hurting ours.

Look it we have Americans getting killed by Israel, while the US is the lone country using it's sway to prevent votes that would otherwise be more or less unanimous in the UN. Our uncritical support of Israel has made them worse off, not better. Has allowed their government to move far right and put them in the situation where their PM has an arrest warrant by the Haque. It's very shortsighted and Israel has handcuffed us to their public immorality.

bemeruca:
Shut up about a topic you have no clue about, and control your hatred so you don't speak about it. it is that simple.
there are people with PhD saying men can be pregnant.
see the shame PhD brought to Australia and this PhD holder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2O5_0kqCZs

This is exactly why no one takes you seriously when you utter harvard because of how dumb you are

At least you can spell Harvard. Since it's a proper noun, the H is capitalized.
Now, work on the rest of the English Language esp. conjugating verbs. You seem to struggle mightily there.

Leaving out what it is being used for. This is a good start process for distributing aid to reduce theft and fraud.
Technically, the Government should be able to know how many bags were purchased and every bag should then be able to be tracked to make sure they were given out.
But, I'm sure some 'industrious' government official will be able to use random people's NINs to still steal bags or hold bags for certain people.
But, it's a needed process in General.

bemeruca:
You and many, even in the media do not understand what is going on in the Middle East or the hate for the jews clouds your judgment.
The Middle East is not your schtick, many things you say concerning that topic emanate from hate.

People who study the middle east, with PHD's in international diplomacy, who have lived in the Middle East and advised presidents, don't understand the middle east but someone like you, who can't even write a sentence in English, where English is your first language, does?

As usual, STFU. Go struggle and best the English Language first, before anything else. Or go to your corner and make up more lies about where you live or find new ways to hack people on Nairaland.

LordReed:
Israel is the US prod against Arabian ambitions especially Iran. Without needing to deploy heavily in the area, the US can put a check on countries like Iran via Israeli resources. Hezbollah and Hamas too but they are small players comparatively.

It's a cross every US president has to bear to maintain US power in the middle east. This is dictated by their strategic foreign policy, that I think should any president try to break from, will encounter a whole heap of trouble. Biden and possibly Kamala will have to navigate this delicately, they have no choice as it were.

I don't think it has gotten to a point it will hurt Kamala. Such Muslims and Palestinians in the US are unsatisfied with the response but I don't think the situation, as it is, will significantly impact her chances.

There has been debate about this. Is what Israel offers the US greater than what we can achieve in the Middle East with the goodwill of a just peace.

Here is one analysis
https://www.cato.org/commentary/israel-strategic-liability-united-states

ono:
It's pointless trying to reason with you. If you can't see what Trump is going to do in that post up there, then you sure are a lost cause. I cannot help you point that out. Sorry!

Mostly accurate post NoNo
1.) It's pointless for YOU to try to reason with me, because YOU have to be able to reason. YOU aren't capable of that. Talking points and general bullshit don't work with me.
2.) You should treat me as a lost cause. I didn't see what Trump said he would do, because I understand English. And there was no policy in his incoherent ramble. You don't need to help me, help yourself. Free yourself from his grip, get out of the cult.
3.) The fact that you wrote all that instead of telling me what policy Trump said he would implement to reduce child care costs in that word salad answer, means you are aware there was no policy there. You can't answer the question, so you bullshit instead.

Enjoy Nono.

basilico:
Trump said he will impose tariffs on imports. I believe he is also toying with the idea of doing away with income tax and replace that with an import tax.
The earnings from import taxes and tariffs will be more than enough to reduce the deficits and cover the budget. At the founding for very many years the federal revenue was from import tariffs , excuse duties , poll taxes etc . Income tax was fully established . In 1913 long after the aeroplane had been invented.
That's not rocket science, but the media's job is not to interpret with an open mind what he means. Their job is to pour cold water on his every initiative and never acknowledge any good he has ever done.
That's where Ijebos comes in , joining the choir.
If and when the debate happens you can be sure the moderators will let Trump spell out his economic policies, then they will add a negative spin like what Goldman Sachs said about the economy, close the topic and move on to the next question totally unrelated to the economy.

Basilico on Economic Policy. Dumb Fucking Hilarious.
An import tariff on the ~3.5 trillion of imports replacing 2 trillion in yearly Income Taxes?
That would mean the import tariff would be around ~60-70% to generate the same revenue as Income taxes.
That ~60-70% tariff would substantially increase the price of all goods as tariffs generally get passed on to the consumer.
That increase would therefore reduce demand and so less imported goods would be purchased. Thereby decreasing the revenue generated.
It would also be terribly regressive. Affecting poorer people (aka Trump's base) more than richer people.
And that is just the beginning of the problems.

You seem to know less than Trump about Economic policy, who doesn't know much about Economic policy.

Note: (the imports and income tax numbers are rough estimates)

ono:
That’s your stock in trade, Ijeshit. I’ve seen you argue and make comments on here that benalvi, basilico and bemerica try to help you reset your brain. All you post is to cancel, mislead, post rubbish to sound like you’re knowledgeable or make you feel good. I don’t get it.

You can fool some here with your useless posts, but you can’t fool many of us. And I will always take that extra effort to verify your claims. And as I have demonstrated- even though you’re trying to dismiss it, but it’s clear to all that you have TDS.

It's quite clear you don't get it NoNo.
What does it say about you that you put in all that extra effort and still wrote that nonsensical post.
You are here really trying to defend the Incoherent Word Salad Trump called an answer.
Here is a simple question. From Trump's answer, what specifically did Trump say he would do(otherwise called a policy) to decrease child care costs?

ono:
Children of hate, liars and haters. People with Trump Derangment Sysndrome. I'll say a few things about the YouTube video link shared - after listening the question and answer bit of that interview. It's because of people like you, who will do anything within your powers to deceive the gullible, the simple minded, the lazy bones, that most of us go through that rigour and stress of ensuring that what we are "fed" with is indeed the truth and not some exercise in futility to deceive.

The first question asked was on sanctions, with specific insight into the case of the Russian sanctions and how this impacts national security.

"Specifically, would you strengthen or modify any of these united states economic sanctions towards countries perceived as hostile, like Russia, including the pipelines that you mentioned?"

Ans by Trump. We need to be smart about how we apply these sanctions on hostile countries so we don't lose the status of the dollar as the world's trading currency like China and some other countries have sought to do. And so we also don't lose our relationships completely with these nations. We need to be smart about it. I will impose sanctions as necessary but also remove them pretty fast to ensure some balance. We can instead use tarriffs to our advantage instead of too much emphasis on sanctions. I have used tarriffs to prevent wars. Tarriffs are great and I used them to our advantage in my last administration. This I will do when I am elected. I will also fix the Russian war with Ukraine as soon as I become the incoming President - the president elect and I will do that very quickly because a lot of people are dying in Ukraine. Never mind what the media say when a building is knocked down and they say few people were injured. That's not true. Many people die when this happens.

Q2: How could we better institutionalise trade policy and national security policy to be co-ordinated (to better manage) the threat of China?

Ans by Trump: It's important that we get along very well with the rest of the world. Trump went on to describe his relationship with China, North Korea and how he will like to prevent a 3rd World War. We need to get to a place where we reduce nuclear capabilities are reduced. He mentioned "Nuclear Warming" We need to get along very well with world. Need to do the work of President right.

Q3:The fiscal deficit under the Biden administration is approx 2 Trillion Dollars. Your policies, which you've announced - tarriffs, tax incentives - no tax on tip, will bring this down. Overall what do you estimate will be the deficit impact of your policies?

Ans by Trump: I am all about growth. Auto factories will come back to the US. China building auto factories in Mexico at the moment. And their plan is to make those vehicles over there and ship them to the US - without paying taxes. It's never going to happen if I get in - unline under this administration. They tried to build the factory during my previous administration but I threatened them with a 200% tarriff on every car and they will never be able to get a car across our border. Now, under this administration their plan is progressing and they're going to kill Detroit. Billion and billion of dollars in tariffs will help to direcly reduce our deficits - and this is good to stimulate growth on our side.

Q4: Pres Trump, you talked about how the increases in the prizes of food, gas and rent are hurting families, but the real cost that's breaking the back of families and preventing woment from participating in the economy is childcare. This is costing some 122 billion dollars a year making it one of the most urgent economic issue facing our country. The average American spend 20% of their income on child care.

If you win in November, would you commit to insituting a legislative piece that will make child care affordable?


Ans By Pres Trump: I definitely will. Marco Rubio and my daughter Ivanka were actually championing this previously. But in any case, the tarriffs and tax that we will impose on countries doing trade with us will definitely reduce our deficit, including - and by far greater number, but including this childcare deficit you've talked about. When we start getting billions and billions of dollars pouring back into our country, child care will be properly taken care of by these gains. I will also reduce wastages and improve economic growth, that I talked about earlier on. We will be self sufficient to take care of our own, before we begin to worry about the rest of the world. This is about America First. It's about Make America Great Again. We are a failing nation right now, but we will take care of it. Thank you!

Why are you trying to be Trump's interpreter. Everyone has ears and can listen to what he actually said. It's not what your wrote.
And even what you wrote makes no sense in terms of policy. You don't understand what policy is if you think it does.

LordReed:
Strategic allies of the US get away with all manner. Look at Saudi's involvement in Yemen, what has the US said about it?

At the end of the day there has to be some strategy to keep a strategic alliance. What does Israel give us that another partner can't without the huge cost? That is if you are just talking about it purely on a strategic relationship sense, which most foreign policy is based on. And even then there has to be a recognition of who the bigger partner is. Israel isn't acting as if they are the junior partner here. Saudi Arabia we put up with because of the oil and our economic need for it.

Dem voters can't feel that Israel is committing injustices with the administration's acquiescence by their silence, if Harris wants that turnout.

Konkoja:
Q: What specific legislation will you commit to to make child care affordable?

Trump: Well, I would do that and we're sitting down, you know, I was, somebody, we had Marco Rubio and my daughter, Ivanka… But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I'm talking about that because the child care is, child care couldn't, you know, there's something you have to have it in this country, you have to have it... I want to stay with child care… So we'll take care of it. Thank you

I think this was the first time people have asked him real policy questions in years. He imploded on nearly every question. Just stung words together. Wholly incoherent. Listen to the rest of the answers. Esp. the one at mark 12:40 of the video.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f92WNzXoabg?t=763

LordReed:
How will it hurt her?

Some people will stay home or be upset and thus less enthused about Harris's campaign.
A lot of Dems believe in fairness. And what is going on in the Middle East seems unfair.
And nothing adds to that sense when it's just not Palestinian lives that seem to be devalued, but American lives as well.

Netanyahu is doing Biden no favors. And he seems to be using the Presidential election and Biden's fear of ruffling feathers to extract as much as he can from the Middle East.
I want to see if Biden pushes back after the election

bemeruca:
that's not him being nuts, that's him being proactive, and he was vindicated in the end. it is why under Biden they don't know what they are doing.

Sit this one out.
1.) The Fed is supposed to be independent.
2.) He was doing this long before Covid.
3.) He was not vindicated.

This was in 2018. Long before Trump started lying that Covid would not be a big deal.

President Donald Trump directly accused Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell of endangering the U.S. economy by raising interest rates, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“I’m just saying this: I’m very unhappy with the Fed because Obama had zero interest rates,” Trump told the Journal on Tuesday. “Every time we do something great, he raises the interest rates.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/interest-rates-trump-attacks-fed-chairman-powell-wsj-reports.html

Damn, it seems one concern is that Kamala seems to turn her staff over often.
Yeah, the trouble seems to be she has a prosecutorial mindset, so is super focused/prepared and doesn't like sycophants.
That's going to make her a terrible president /s

kkins25:
Where can I verify this claim? unless America has become a shithole like Nigeria, I find it hard to swallow that an American president can bully the almighty FED reserve.

This is how nuts and how ridiculous Trump was. He was arguing that the key rate of 1% was too high.
Trump tried his hardest to turn America into Nigeria. He ran roughshod over every institution.
If he gets a second term he may well succeed.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Saturday he had the power to fire or demote Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, adding new fuel to his long-running animus toward the central bank’s leader at a moment when the economy was at risk of edging into recession.

Powell announced earlier this month a half-point interest rate cut that shrank the Fed’s key rate to a range of just 1% to 1.25%. It marked the first time the central bank has cut rates between scheduled policy meetings since the 2008 financial crisis. And it’s the steepest rate cut the Fed has made since then.

Yet, the president continued to complain that he was “not happy with the Fed” because it was “following” and “we should be leading.” The president pointed to lower interest rates set by the central banks in Japan and Germany as proof that Powell had not been aggressive enough in bolstering the U.S. economy. Economists, however, say the lower rates reflect the weaker economic outlooks than the U.S. economy.
https://apnews.com/article/2a21e92ed9129e91e713495c9ef50050

This may be the one thing that can hurt Harris.

If Israel is this careless that they are killing Americans in the West Bank, I can't imagine what it's like for Palestinians.

Middle East Crisis
American Woman Shot and Killed at West Bank Protest
A 26-year-old American woman was fatally shot on Friday in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where witnesses said she was taking part in a protest against a settler outpost when Israeli forces opened fire.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/06/world/israel-hamas-gaza-war

Seems the Republican Party wants to be done with Trump.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney will vote for Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney says
The younger Cheney, one of former President Donald Trump's most prominent conservative critics, also said she was supporting Democratic Rep. Colin Allred for Senate in Texas.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna169979

raumdeuter:
Who THOUGHT you that? You WRITE more than you think

Captain Intellectual Dishonesty,
Let's recap your great contributions to this thread from, say your last 15 posts.

1.)First you argued that Goldman Sachs saying Harris would be better for the Country couldn't be trusted because you thought some other economist/financial advisors got it wrong when they once said the stock market would crash under Trump (though it did).
2.)Then, when asked, by that logic if you agreed that Trump's Economic predictions shouldn't be trusted because he predicted the Stock Market and Economy would crash under Biden (it didn't), you disappeared.
3.) You then reappeared to argue that Trump shouldn't be held responsible for crashing the Stock Market because the Stock Market crashed in a lot of countries during Covid.
4.) But then, when asked if Biden should be held responsible for inflation in the US post covid, though there was inflation world wide post Covid, though this is something you have routinely blamed Biden for, you disappeared again.

You must get dizzy from your brain spinning so much.
Mr. Intellectual Dishonesty indeed.

bemeruca:
Do you know what stimulus check is for? Do you know why interest rate was low during Obama and Trump's admin?

In a state where all the business is shut down, people are out of work, you need to stimulate the economy. The last check went out towards when businesses were opening, interest rates were low, trillions flood the economy, supply chain was having issues then Biden printed trillions again for their Green New BS.

You actually made a great point, probably unbeknownst to you.
Part of the reason interest rates are so high now is because they were kept very low by Trump's bullying of the Fed through his Presidency
Inflation rates were low under Obama because it was necessary since Obama was rescuing the US from a Bush recession.
But why were they low under Trump?
Because he bullied the Fed so that he could have better economic numbers.
But when Covid came, what happened? Interest rates were already so low that the FED lost one of it's tools to combat an economic downturn. Hence the use and need of more demand side stimulus.
Something we can again blame on Trump and the News media doesn't talk enough about.

Obrigardo:
Thank You. Everyone is now clowning on the access media why they're ignoring the rapist's cognitive decline. Why hold the rapist to a lower standard than Democrats?

You see you haven't heard pim from basilico and Bemeruca about this.

raumdeuter:
Biden was responsible for the lunar eclipse that happened under his watch? WRITE?

raumdeuter:
Anyone that is jealous of an adult who RIGHTS, WRITE as RIGHT must be mad

Or one who doesnt doesn't know the difference between thought and taught

These two posts show why I call you Captain Intellectual Dishonesty.
Two posts on two things you know yourself are stupid. And arguments that you let alone anyone else wouldn't believe.

You clearly have more Time than Sense.

raumdeuter:
You can make mistakes because you never talk on and on about your education , . For someone who talks so much about education , he can't even spell properly .

write or right, thought or taught

You talk more about your education and even more about mine than I do.
It really does sound like jealousy.