₦airaland Forum

They wanted to put him in a trap!!

Lose Muslim votes in the north by picking Christian VP.. While the likes of CAN and majority Christians won't vote for him even after picking a Christian deputy

He would have lost even before election started

famology:
Peter Obi is a blessing in disguise for Tinubu. If Obi was not contesting, Atiku would've had an edge. Obi has destroyed the bloc votes pdp used to enjoy in south east and south south. Tinubu got his strategy right. That's the reason for the wailing you see from the pdp and labour party. They were expecting a christian vice from the north. Tinubu is a smart politician. He took his time to read the match.

Yes boi, u surely understand politics!

He will win NC.. Kwarra, kogi and Niger.. I can bet my life on those state

Nasarawa state is too close to call because of large Christian population, however, with Abdullahi Adamu and the governor, I see Tinubu slightly winning it

Abuja is between PO and Atiku

OptimistBrain:
Tinubu's main focus is the NW, NE, and SW. He only needs 25% in the SE and SS, and he will do well in the NC especially Kogi and Niger State

Perpetual nyamuri prostitute, we know since Buhari came to power, the business of opening your legs wide open for a plate of rice has not been easy, Tinubu will win and go a step further by closing those brothels that serve as ur family business

MadamVanessa:




Unapologetic headslammer, have small shame a little if not for any other person, but for the sake of your most cherished and most loved prophet whom you can kill and burn for.

I'm not following blindly, I have seen what Tinubu and Shettima have done in their various states bro

Uptownerd:
Suffer no dey tire you

The man come give Oyo and kwarra to PO! guy da tin weak me no b small!

He cum say Kwankwasso go win 4 States.. Kwankwasso that is tactically aligning with Tinubu already after seeing the handwriting

Peacecore:
What a low-key analysis. Leave politics section n go to romance, that's my candid advice.

Your not a northerner and you don't know anything about northern politics!! Politics is not 1+1, just like how u were saying Atiku will divide Buhari's vote in 2019 because his a fellow northerner, you will emphatically lose again!! Stop acting like you know how we play politics!!

Even Baba Datti Ahmed just came out to say Muslim will line up for Tinubu/APC

You are very very very delusional and myopic!! Kwankwasso that y'all were insulting, saying he can only get votes in Kano, is the one ur suddenly allocating 4 states!! Haba Emeka

Kwarra a Yoruba state will leave Tinubu for Atiku ba!! you even gave Oyo state PO!! Omo this ur analysis don weak my body!! Na just to dash PO presidency, no need of elections

You let ur emotions get better of you

We northerners don't try to analyse and claim to know SE politics, but you are in Upper Iweaka and be claimg the most!!

I can't say for other regions, but as a northerner.. Your permutation is DOA!

FatherOfJesus:
The season is appraoching and we are anticipating who becomes the next president. Here is my early prediction for the election considering party popularity, people's choice and influence. .

1. I am starting with the core north, I e. Northwest and northeast. These regions, from history usually give block votes to their kinsmen irrepective of party excluding Adamawa state. While some federal might may play some significant role for APC here but I see Kwankwaso and Atiku securing a lot of votes because of their nature of voting.
I see Kwankwaso winning Kano and maybe either Zamfara, Kebbi and Jigawa.
I see Atiku winning Adamawa, Sokoto, Bauchi, he will get massive figures in the remaining states. Tinubu might win Katsina and Kaduna if and if El-Rufai and Buhari are with him genuinely. However, the core northern votes is going to be shared, whoever wins will win with a slim figure. Obi can only pick little votes here and there in these regions.

2. North Central: this region is very diversified and they are accepting the Obi movement faster than the.core north. I see PDP dragging kwara with APC because of Saraki's influence, Kogi will be between APC and Obi movement but I see APC winning if Yahaya Bello is truly with Tinubu.
Peter Obi will win Abuja, it's not negotiable.
Plateau state is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Benue is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Niger state vote like core northerners
Nassarawa state will be the tight.

3. South East and South South: The regions is going to be between Obi and PDP structure but I see Obi winning Atiku in a free and fair election. Atiku will get votes because of the existing PDP structure. APC will get little votes in Imo and Ebonyi hut OBi will still win those states.

4. Southwest: The existing APC strcuture is going to help Tinibu alot here and also the fact that many people will play tribal cards. However, a lot if yorubas are also very informed hence Obi will get a lot if votes here. Atiku will lose woefully in Southwest.
Lagos will be between Obi and Tinubu, Tinubu has a grassroot structure that will work for him in Lagos but the people want Obi so it's going to be a battle between the people and the emperor. It's hard to call.

Tinubu will win in Osun, Ekiti and Ogun. Obi will also secure some votes here.

In Oyo, it's going to be a tight battle because of the existing PDP structure. Atiku will get votes, Obi will get votes, Tinubu will also get votes. I see Obi or Atiku winning oyo state.

Ondo state is hard to call, that state usually do not follow the Yoruba trend of voting. They have a mind of their own.

The election is still very hard to call. However, the next few months is going to give a clearer picture. Either way, Peter has the momentum and if anybody is going to get new voters converted, it's most likely going to be Peter Obi.

I'm highly BATFIED!! Us northerners will redouble our efforts with this Muslim-muslim ticket

No, he doesn't know, intact he doesn't know anything about politics..Your the only one that knows this!!

Abdu81:
Tinubu is desperately seeking the votes of the core northern Muslims, the only reason he went for Muslim Muslim ticket.

Is tinubu aware that there are three Muslim candidates fighting for the same northern Muslim votes, two of whom are not just Muslims but are also natives of hausa Fulani class.

Is he aware that his choice of Muslim Muslim ticket destroyed his support from christians even in the southwest.

Is tinubu aware that his choice awakens the christians all over Nigeria to vote against him.

Tinubu is ganging up with those he feels can rigg for him but:

Against their own brothers?
Against the youthful revolution?

Desperate indeed.

No, he doesn't know, intact he doesn't know anything about politics.. Your the only one that knows this!!

Abdu81:
Tinubu is desperately seeking the votes of the core northern Muslims, the only reason he went for Muslim Muslim ticket.

Is tinubu aware that there are three Muslim candidates fighting for the same northern Muslim votes, two of whom are not just Muslims but are also natives of hausa Fulani class.

Is he aware that his choice of Muslim Muslim ticket destroyed his support from christians even in the southwest.

Is tinubu aware that his choice awakens the christians all over Nigeria to vote against him.

Tinubu is ganging up with those he feels can rigg for him but:

Against their own brothers?
Against the youthful revolution?

Desperate indeed.

Yes, I know many Christians will vote for him, however he should not rely on it, he should go out and reach majority of those that won't vote for him and quench their fears

I didn't mean Christian leaders like RCCG, CAN to campaign if he reaches out to them.. However, not preaching against him in churches and sitting on the fence, will work in his favor

I'm a northerner, the reason we voted GEJ out is because, it was northerner turn and he was incompetent.. As much has I believe Buhari is a failure, I see competency in Tinubu, especially what he achieved in Lagos(I'm not following blindly).. And that presidency to go back to south..Its not our fault(north) that southern candidate happens to be a Muslim.. Tinubu got more votes from southern Christian delegates than ameachi and osinbanjo who are Christians

Subsidywise20:
Yeah, Tinubu better start visiting the bigtime Pastors now (especially RCCG and even Living Faith, even though Bishop Oyedepo is a PDP man).

But would it do much.? Not sure. Prediciting how christians vote is a tricky business. There are christians who have always voted for Buhari even in 2019 (despite the 'He is a bigot' campaign in christian circles)..and they may overlook BAT 's muslim deputy and vote for APC.

But that is an IF. And as for me, for now, I am putting christian votes between LP and PDP. Christians have suffered under the APC government and may decide to vote against them (just as most Northerners voted against GEJ partly because of the Boko Haram activity up North, including bombings and school attacks which affected the North badly)

Lol!! Then u shouldn't vote for him, nobody is begging!! U don't fancy religion, but ur against a Muslim-muslim ticket.. Abeg I'm not ur fellow ipob u can fool

DMerciful:
Nope, thats not the reason. I dont really fancy religion in politics but insofar Muslims wont allow christain Christian ticket, we wont accept Muslim Muslim ticket

Yes, I know many Christians will vote for him, however he should not rely on it, he should go out and reach majority of those that won't vote for him and quench their fears

I didn't mean Christian leaders like RCCG, CAN to campaign if he reaches out to them.. However, not preaching against him in churches and sitting on the fence, will work in his favor

I'm a northerner, the reason we voted GEJ out is because, it was northerner turn and he was incompetent.. As much has I believe Buhari is a failure, I see competency in Tinubu, especially what he achieved in Lagos(I'm not following blindly).. And that presidency to go back to south

Its not our fault(north) that southern candidate happens to be a Muslim.. Tinubu got more votes from southern Christian delegates than ameachi and osinbanjo who are Christians

Subsidywise20:
Yeah, Tinubu better start visiting the bigtime Pastors now (especially RCCG and even Living Faith, even though Bishop Oyedepo is a PDP man).

But would it do much.? Not sure. Prediciting how christians vote is a tricky business. There are christians who have always voted for Buhari even in 2019 (despite the 'He is a bigot' campaign in christian circles)..and they may overlook BAT 's muslim deputy and vote for APC.

But that is an IF. And as for me, for now, I am putting christian votes between LP and PDP. Christians have suffered under the APC government and may decide to vote against them (just as most Northerners voted against GEJ partly because of the Boko Haram activity up North, including bombings and school attacks which affected the North badly)

Lol!! Stop being a hypocrite and smart by half!! The only reason u keep saying no to Christian-christian candidates, its because, its not currently or can't be a reality.. Hence, u tactically hide behind it

DMerciful:
There are options but once Christians insists they're not voting for Muslim-muslim ticket,
that ticket might draw massive vote from muslims who might see it as religious contest. We must educate them that we equally oppose Christian-Christian ticket

Of course Tinubu is only interested in winning!! What kind of stupid line is that ?!?! so he came this far, with the energy and resources he spent.. Only for him yo lose because he wants to be fair!! Its like u don't know politics or ur jus being emotional

ivandragon:
Preamble

As expected, BAT emerged triumphant at the APC presidential primaries with a margin that left no one in doubt that he was head & shoulders above the other contestants & had done his homework long before the actual primaries.

Three key factors worked in favour of BAT at the APC presidential primaries... first, power rotation. It was agreed that power should move south since the North would have had it for 8 straight years come June, 2023.

Second was the feeling of gratitude from the north on the crucial role played by BAT in the victory of PMB at the 2015 presidential elections & his decision not to rock the boat at the 2019 presidential elections. This gratitude extended to the south west.

Third is money. BAT can comfortably outspend any politician in nigeria today. Even after leaving the government house since 2007, what he had to offer financially, could not be matched...

The Dilemma[/b

Post presidential primaries, the APC has found itself in a tight spot.

Given the multi-religious composition of Nigeria, with Christianity & Islam being the major religions practiced (though most adherents combine this with traditional acts on the low), it would make most sense & appropriateness for the top offices to be shared not just only along geopolitical & ethnic lines, but also along religious lines.

If it is fair for power to come south after eight years in the north, shouldn’t it be also fair for that power to be given to a Christian from the South? & in the event that does not play out, shouldn’t it be reasonable to have a Christian as VP so as to balance the equation?

[b]The Worry

BAT is a strategist & planner (love him or hate him, he is very good at that) but there was something he didn’t factor in... that is PDP going for a Northerner as its presidential flag bearer for the 2023 elections.

Given the unwritten consensus for power shift, it was assumed PDP would toe the line of majority of southerners. It didn’t...

With Atiku in the picture, BAT now needs a strong northerner to counterbalance the threat of Atiku. But doing so would mean picking a Muslim as his running mate since the core north would not tolerate being out of the top two positions.

However, this political move has raised eyebrows in the south, even among those in support of power shift to the south.

The Implications of a Muslim-Muslim Ticket


The obvious implication of a muslim-muslim ticket would be that Muslims would hold on to power for about 24 years straight, all things being equal. PMB – 8 years, BAT – 8 years, another northerner – 8 years...

24 years of Muslim dominance at the top is not good for a multi-religious country like nigeria. It would be made worse if the VPs are Muslims.

Already in Kaduna, the trial run had been done & that is what they want to bring to the national level. Once this is achieved, it becomes a norm & with time, a political policy. This will effectively relegate Christians in nigeria to 2nd class citizens who are allowed only crumbs from the seat of power...

It will also reinforce the lie that Muslims are the clear majority in nigeria & soon, all critical political offices would be effectively held by Muslims... PMB has already set that trend.

Until recently, except the post of VP, the other top 5 succession offices were held by muslims.... president, senate president, speaker, chief justice & attorney General... if APC’s plan flies, then it might be that no Christian would be represented at the highest political offices.

So it can be seen that the ploy to give the impression of Christian minority has been in play for a while...

While it is true that competence & integrity should take precedence over other considerations when it comes to leadership positions, Nigerian politics is heavily influenced by ethnic & religious factors, especially at elections.

Conclusion

The possibility of 24 straight years of Muslim domination is worrisome. Muslims would never allow that if the tables were turned, & would certainly never permit a Christian – Christian ticket.

All the talk about it not being an issue is a ploy to have their way & set a trend that would be hard to overturn in future.

It would seem that BAT is more concerned about winning, than he is about doing what is right, fair & equitable...

If he believes that, in the spirit of fairness, power should come south, then he should also believe in the fairness of balancing religious interests...

Afterall, What is Good for the goose...

Not all Muslims voted for Buhari even in the north, most SW Muslims too didn't vote for him.. So u can't use this as case study

Ballack1:
Nooo, if you in doubt ask Buhari.

I definitely agree SW Christian are very agree now, but as time goes, it will subside, especially when campaign start.. Tinubu is a strategic politician, he knows he will need to specify southern Christian and he will do that by visiting Christian leaders like RCCG, CAN etc

Subsidywise20:
No problem. If you did read my post, you would see that even I think I am a bad predictor. (That's a big part of why I don't do betting...)



That is true.



Again true...Borno in particular may go for APC...Zulum is doing a good job. But Atiku is in play now, and that could be dicey.



And those Northern governors won because Buhari was on the ballot. Buhari is responsible for their winning. Buhari not being on the ballot? Well, like I said, the Buhari bloc could still listen to their master and vote for BAT on his instructions....but at the same time, Buhari not being on the ballot could lead to many looking for a new person..and Atiku is closest to what they want.



It would...which is part of why the BAT choose him.


Five years ago, I would have agreed with you, but now, I'm not so sure. Chrsitians are very angry with APC right now, and that may affect APC votes all over the South. Plus PDP's performance last election...55 to 45%...that's not too good for APC (If I was an APC man in the SW, I would be worried, even though we won!)....plus they did better than expected in Lagos.

Lol!! Your a gombe Christian from ur name, as northern too, I'm totally not in shock.. However, just like how northern Christian were against Buhari in 2015, ur votes won't make much of a difference to Tinubu

bagirajoseph:
I am from north East particularly Gombe, it will be very easy for me to become the united state of America president than Tinubu to become a president, Tinubu is joke in the north

I'm totally against your permutation and analysis!!

1-Buhari will definitely support Tinubu, he said it vividly that Tinubu is his choice , he might not have been prior to primaries.. But now as a candidate of APC, Buhari is a very discipline fella, hence, he can't work against Tinubu/APC

2- Buhari has a very soft spot for NE in his heart, he was once a military governor, coupled with the fact that borno gave him second highest votes, he won't dump Shettima

3- Atiku will not win the north!! The 22 APC governors are fighting for broke and survival, they need Tinubu as much as he needs them, or PDP/LP eventual winner will blow them away just like how Buhari/APC did in most states in 2015

4- choosing Kashima, a kanuri from NE, will give Atiku a run for his money.. Kanuri are majority in Borno and yobe, and can be find in other NE States.. So automatically Tinubu has borno and yobe, other NE state could go either way(but difference if margin won't be up to 20%)

5- Tinubu already has a block region in SW, he should atleast get 70% here.. Fayose, kayode and makinwa coming together tells u the mindset and trajectory of SW

Subsidywise20:
Hmmm

I'm going to repost my prediction for 2023 here, that I made on another thread, now that BAT and APC have their cards on the table..along with LP and PDP



To add, it is possible that Atiku could do enough to win without a runoff. Obi and BAT supporters are fighting out a scorched earth campaign , and the Southern vote may be severely divided as a result. All Atiku needs to do is win in the North, take a few Southern states, and that's it.


(Of course playing politcal prophet is a risky game. Most of the time, one is wrong. Remember the 2016 election in the USA, where everyone thought it was Clinton that would beat Trump.)

Lol! So kanuri hates Hausa/Fulani!?! wow as a northern currently in borno, this information is new to me

alsudan:
Since the return of Democracy in 1999 a Hausa/Fulani has been on the ballot of the major political parties and hence had a place in Aso Rock.

Obasanjo/Atiku 1999-2007
Yar’Adua/GEJ 2007-2010
GEJ/Sambo 2010-2015
Buhari/Osinbajo 2015-2023

Tinubu will be attempting to break that pattern out of pure hate for the Hausa/Fulani’s, which is the main reason he dropped an El Rufai or a Ganduje for a Kanuri Born Shettima who hates the Hausa/Fulani even more to serve as his Vice.

It will be recalled that Tinubu’s strong loyalist Mc Oluomo called for a United Yoruba front to put the Fulani in their place and end their hegemony.

With Tinubu’s choice of VP can it be said that MC Oluomo was speaking on behalf of Tinubu?

Remains to be seen how Tinubu shunning the highest voting bloc in the country will affect his chances in the 2023 General elections, considering his major rivals Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso all have a Hausa/Fulani on their ballot.

I don't think so, SW is lock down for Tinubu, for fayose, fayemi and makinde to have closed ranks, that tells u a lot about SW mind and trajectory

With 70% in the SW, all he needs now is 50% in the north.. With the support of 22 APC governors, Buhari and Muslim-muslim ticket, I see Tinubu getting more than that

BigSarah:
Well only time will tell.
But i think it's more risky now, judging by ethnic and religious tension in the country..

The scenario and permutations during 2015 are totally different, Buhari/APC were not the incumbent government at that time, hence, too risky to tow with that.. And APC governors were the minority at that time

Those that opposed Muslim-muslim ticket like saraki etc are not in APC to hinder it now

BigSarah:
If Buhari himself with his cult like followership, and Kwankwaso with similar followership, were seeking partnership with Christians.

It's unfortunate for tinubu to assume he, has what they don't.

Who knows Tinubu might win tho, but that'll set a very dangerous precedence for Christians seeking political office in future.

Christians will be termed minorities, should a MM ticket succeed twice, case point KADUNa

I tire bro!! Some permutations will just weak ur body

ObosiLandlord:
When did the North Central become Peter Obi stronghold? The same North Central we have states like Kwara, Kogi etc? Are you high on Mkpurumiri this morning Emeka?

Thanks for your advice bro, but just like u won't vote for him, millions will

I'm Ibrahim tukur from sokoto state, and I'm voting Tinubu

jumper524:
I'm a great fan of Asiwaju, I respect his charisma and Hardworking nature, his patience and also his segacity but to be honest I won't support a Muslim Muslim candidate.
I'm a Muslim myself and supporting a Muslim Muslim ticket I know would only increase the problem of the country to not just the insecurity we have today but religious crisis would most likely deepen.
While I know and understand that the man tinubu himself is not a religious fanatic and I know for sure would always respect every religion I doubt if the storm coming ahead would be able to be curtailed.
Let's use the Buhari scenario for example.
Buhari presidency gave courage and confidence to some criminal fulani elements who thinks his brother is in charge hence he can do as he pleases. Security compromise toward dealing with the fulani criminals, media sentiment in reporting fulani atrocities,
Massive hatred from Nigerians towards the fulani tribe thereby endangering the lives of innocent fulani e. T. C
A Muslim Muslim president in today's Nigeria would gear up the criminals Muslims and even Christians towards extremism.
Their confidence would booster and trust me the Christians won't keep quite and such actions would always trigger compromise amongst even honest Muslims.
Hatred would be everywhere and in the end the greatest looses would be innocent Nigerians who don't care about religious sentiment.
This is a plea from me and I hope Mr Jagaban reads and understand the message and the consequences.

I tire bro!! Some permutations will weak ur body

ObosiLandlord:
When did the North Central become Peter Obi stronghold? The same North Central we have states like Kwara, Kogi etc? Are you high on Mkpurumiri this morning Emeka?

The scenario and permutations at that time are totally different..Buhari was not the incumbent at the time, hence, very risky to contemplate that.. And APC governors were the minority

BigSarah:
If Buhari himself with his cult like followership, and Kwankwaso with similar followership, were seeking partnership with Christians.

It's unfortunate for tinubu to assume he, has what they don't.

Who knows Tinubu might win tho, but that'll set a very dangerous precedence for Christians seeking political office in future.

Christians will be termed minorities, should a MM ticket succeed twice, case point KADUNa

Lmfao!! So Dogara will pull votes for Tinubu in the north!?! please if u meet any northerner in the streets, just ask him if he knows Dogara

I believe ur just trolling and trying to be sarcastic

Someone even said Boss Mustapha , I didn't even reply him

Owologbo:
Dogara na wetin?

Bro, choose ur candidate and vote for him, nobody put a gun to ur head and forced u to vote for Tinubu!!

Coolsperm:
He must be very stupid, cause We Yoruba Christian's we never ever vote muslim Muslim ticket, we are not fools, by the Muric told Yoruba Muslims Not to vote Yoruba Christian's and the all agreed

Lol! Why are you guys so scared about this Muslim-muslim ticket!?!? Funny thing is that u won't even vote for him even if he picks a Christian as VP

If ur sure of him losing, why are u loosing sleep about it??

buckeyemedia:
Selfish minded man, woe to all the Christians that support this evil man.

Tinubu’s downfall will be child’s play to the catastrophe that befell MKO Abiola because of this same, I want to be President of The Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Let him keep promoting his saga, who the Gods want to destroy, they first make mad.

Buhari didn't try it because he/APC were not the incumbent at that time, hence, it was too risky to try it.. APC too had fewer governors

Muslim-muslim ticket will be a walk over for Tinubu in the north

TimFisher2:
Tinubu is about to pick his Vice in the next couple of days

It has been rumoured to be El Rufai or Shettima which the two candidates are Muslims

This means that we are going to have a Muslim President and a Muslim Vice President in a polarised country like Nigeria where there has been a lot of religious tension between the Christians and the Muslims

Tinubu get mind

Well I know someone is advising him wrongly

Something wey Buhari no fit do with all his sagacity

Tinubu want to do it in one day...I wish him good luck!

Lol its okay, keep consoling yourself!!

Subsidywise20:
I don't rule out being wrong too, ye know...

You are very mischievous!! How is NC in PDP's hand?

Subsidywise20:
At the end Tinubu had no choice...choose a Northern muslim, or get zero votes from the North.

The middle belt is already in PDP's hands, and LP is looking lively there too.

Looks like the fight is for Bubu's voting bloc.

If you were Tinubu, which Christian candidate will u pick?

Rhozabeth:
Are u kidding me? No be me go name for them, i no dey share momey with them!