sucess001:
You use Jesus to sell your deluded theory?

God1000:
Bad and wrong choice, what a historic mistake

Subsidywise20:
Hmmm

I'm going to repost my prediction for 2023 here, that I made on another thread, now that BAT and APC have their cards on the table..along with LP and PDP



To add, it is possible that Atiku could do enough to win without a runoff. Obi and BAT supporters are fighting out a scorched earth campaign , and the Southern vote may be severely divided as a result. All Atiku needs to do is win in the North, take a few Southern states, and that's it.


(Of course playing politcal prophet is a risky game. Most of the time, one is wrong. Remember the 2016 election in the USA, where everyone thought it was Clinton that would beat Trump.)

Modifed

For those calling Peter Obi a Biafranist....recall that in 1993, Sylvester Ugoh, who was Tofa's running mate in NRC...was actually the governor of the Central Bank of Biafra. His signature appears on the Biafran pound (I used to have a few specimens of the thing...a pound note). Yet the Northern brigade chose him as Tofa's running mate. Tines were different back then. Obi meanwhile has never supported or backed Biafra or IPOB Oor Massob, and IPOB hates him well well.).

Subsidywise20:


He would, or at the very least, get some states. PDP has a lot of supporters in the South.

For now, the main issue is Wike, though. I don't like the way PDP is treating him, and honestly some of Atiku's advisers are worried he is not doing enough to placate Wike....that could cost SS votes.

Like I said, even with my predictions, anything can happen in the next 7-8 months.

kramer:
At the end of the day the North still wins.

If not, why can't we have an SS and SS ticket?
Or SE and SE, or SW and SW?

It's because without the North, you can't win nothing

Reinaldo:
Nothing for APC. Peter Obi and Atiku now stand a better chance.

excel127:
Tinubu is finished.

ItsTutsi:
I'm totally against your permutation and analysis!!

1-Buhari will definitely support Tinubu, he said it vividly that Tinubu is his choice , he might not have been prior to primaries.. But now as a candidate of APC, Buhari is a very discipline fella, hence, he can't work against Tinubu/APC

2- Buhari has a very soft spot for NE in his heart, he was once a military governor, coupled with the fact that borno gave him second highest votes, he won't dump Shettima

3- Atiku will not win the north!! The 22 APC governors are fighting for broke and survival, they need Tinubu as much as he needs them, or PDP/LP eventual winner will blow them away just like how Buhari/APC did in most states in 2015

4- choosing Kashima, a kanuri from NE, will give Atiku a run for his money.. Kanuri are majority in Borno and yobe, and can be find in other NE States.. So automatically Tinubu has borno and yobe, other NE state could go either way(but difference if margin won't be up to 20%)

5- Tinubu already has a block region in SW, he should atleast get 70% here.. Fayose, kayode and makinwa coming together tells u the mindset and trajectory of SW

Subsidywise20:


Well, BAT has no choice. It was either a Muslim VP or nothing. Choosing a christian won't have done much, especially in the North (where Christian votes most likely would go for PDP with some going to LP...APC may not do well enough)..whereas choosing a Muslim means he gets a chance to have the Buhari bloc vote for him...and snatch some votes from Atiku's backyard. (Borno may go for APC...Zulum has been doing a good job as governor, given the bad hand he was handed)

If APC wanted to win, a christian southerner may have done the trick as presidential candidate. Though, it may have still tilted the North to PDP, and the crucial Middle belt also to PDP and LP. South is divided between LP, PDP and APC.

But as people have said...Buhari not being on the ballot could make the race more competitive. Nothing is guaranteed...even with Bubu travelling around with BAT and calling him his brother from another mother (or son, lol).

kramer:
At the end of the day the North still wins.

If not, why can't we have an SS and SS ticket?
Or SE and SE, or SW and SW?

It's because without the North, you can't win nothing

Cromagnon:
what have you gained from balance? Boko started under obj and read under Jonathan. Osibanjo is useless

zakkxx:
Oga only Yoruba cannot make Tinubu the president! The North will not live an Atiku and Kwankwaso to vote Tinubu. I am a Northern Christian, we are in millions! We will not vote him because he ignore us! Peter chances are getting clearer!!!!

IfnobeGod20:

Don't you think, there may be some christains that would ordinarily want to vote for him but because of this combination, they may refrain.

Femabol01:
You understood their concern. If he had chosen an unpopular Christian from the North, they will be happy and still not vote for him. Now that he has chosen a popular northern Muslim; he has become a threat. I'm a Christian and will gladly vote for Tinubu. Politics is beyond sentiment, as the aim of a politician is to win.

God1000:
Bad and wrong choice, what a historic mistake

walozanga:
It's getting more interesting

Lanrelagboi:
Question: Who is your running mate?

Bola Tinubu:���� https:///myYbFY0uPC


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMX0RHfLAM0

Vistra40:


So with how people are gingered to vote this time around you still think the current surge will favour atiku in the south?

Subsidywise20:


No problem. If you did read my post, you would see that even I think I am a bad predictor. (That's a big part of why I don't do betting...)



That is true.



Again true...Borno in particular may go for APC...Zulum is doing a good job. But Atiku is in play now, and that could be dicey.



And those Northern governors won because Buhari was on the ballot. Buhari is responsible for their winning. Buhari not being on the ballot? Well, like I said, the Buhari bloc could still listen to their master and vote for BAT on his instructions....but at the same time, Buhari not being on the ballot could lead to many looking for a new person..and Atiku is closest to what they want.



It would...which is part of why the BAT choose him.


Five years ago, I would have agreed with you, but now, I'm not so sure. Chrsitians are very angry with APC right now, and that may affect APC votes all over the South. Plus PDP's performance last election...55 to 45%...that's not too good for APC (If I was an APC man in the SW, I would be worried, even though we won!)....plus they did better than expected in Lagos.

IfnobeGod20:

Don't you think, there may be some christains that would ordinarily want to vote for him but because of this combination, they may refrain.

Subsidywise20:


No problem. If you did read my post, you would see that even I think I am a bad predictor. (That's a big part of why I don't do betting...)



That is true.



Again true...Borno in particular may go for APC...Zulum is doing a good job. But Atiku is in play now, and that could be dicey.



And those Northern governors won because Buhari was on the ballot. Buhari is responsible for their winning. Buhari not being on the ballot? Well, like I said, the Buhari bloc could still listen to their master and vote for BAT on his instructions....but at the same time, Buhari not being on the ballot could lead to many looking for a new person..and Atiku is closest to what they want.



It would...which is part of why the BAT choose him.


Five years ago, I would have agreed with you, but now, I'm not so sure. Chrsitians are very angry with APC right now, and that may affect APC votes all over the South. Plus PDP's performance last election...55 to 45%...that's not too good for APC (If I was an APC man in the SW, I would be worried, even though we won!)....plus they did better than expected in Lagos.