₦airaland Forum

size38:
This write up is a blackmail and a threat too. The writer should have used GEJ's achievement in pushing for his re election and not this bullsh*t. Where is the economy and standard of living of Nigerians now that GEJ, a Niger Delta son is in power? Can we say the govt is moving in the right direction?

No, this is neither a threat nor a blackmail. It is a prophesy. It is not meant to change your mind about who to vote. I'm telling you about what will happen if GEJ loses. I encourage you to vote according to your choice and conscience.

rasojie:
Reading this post this morning. I cannot but wonder how deep we have fallen. It is a shame that the 15 years misrule by the PDP Has eaten deep into our brains that we now belive that we cant have a working and functional govt. This a more reason why we need change. NIGERIANS NEED TO SEE THE GLORY OF DEMOCRACY. WE HAVE BEEN TAKEN FOR GRANTED FI TOO LONG. Its time to see a working and functional Nigeria. I am tired of seeing 'cluelessness' being displayed in high places. Truth is we have fallen so deep. Tired of this horror movie called PDP.... ..... I need change. Thats all

You then need to vote for the change you want. Your vote is your power. Fight for what you want no matter the consequences.

nuclearboy:
All the threats by the windbag Dokubo are just hot air. Boko Haram achieved what they did because the current president does not have the respect of his Generals, allowed them to steal all the monies meant to inspire the fighting men and make them comfortable. So what did anyone expect? One single battle-hardened battalion from 1 Div has changed the face of the war and BH has again mostly become hit and run. Thats because officers who "enjoyed" the war sent the newbies (poorly armed and with zero coordination) against BH

A Buhari who is revered by the military as the ONLY Man ever to lead Nigeria to war against a foreign country, who practically took over Chad in hours, who will not allow officers steal whats due to his men and who is decisive and clean CANNOT be compared to a GEJ whose generals bought bulletproof vests that couldn't stop stones from a catapult YET who kept quiet because he was afraid of losing support

Eventually, the Asaris will run away or kowtow. Yes, they (Delta militants) will stop Nigeria for 3 weeks but its a cut your nose situation - because they will lose their families, lifestyles, and futures to the environmental devastation of blowing up everything. They will not be welcome anyplace on earth and if you couldn't hide from OBJ, is it GMB you wish to hide from? Their mothers and children will stop them anyway

Its always just been noise. I like the arming though - they have added to Nigeria's stockpiles because IF Buhari, everyone will be disarmed and that rightly!

Way I see it, what matters is that whoever wins TRULY has Nigeria behind him like Jonathan did in 2011. Any ethnicity opposed to a TRUE WINNER will bend or break

I like the confidence with which you have written. Unfortunately, the dynamics of political backed militancy is way beyond conventional warfare tactics. Boko Haram embark on suicide missions and kill civilians em mass, MEND blow up pipelines that threatens the economic sustainability of the nation. Buhari is not more rugged and heartless than IBB, ABACHA AND OBJ that could not destroy the evolution of MEND from tiny MOSOP and other harmless splinter groups. Like I have told others, you better be careful about what you wish for.

Omimah:
You probably do not know any or there are none.

I'll suggest you forget about getting names from me. I just want you to know that if GEJ is voted out in 2015, MEND will return, then we can come and talk about names. All we have to do now is to pray for peace in Nigeria.

Omimah:
Give me the name of any MEND leader that is not Ijaw.

Sorry man, I have no interest in doing that.

Omimah:
MEND is majorly made up of Ijaw men. Give me the name of one of their "generales" who is not Ijaw. Asari Dokubo, Ateke Tom, Boyloaf, Henry Orkar Tompolo, Late John Togo, etc are all Ijaw men from the Ijaw-speaking parts of Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states. As I said somewhere, when the full force of the Nigerian Army is metted on the Niger Delta, you will realize that the defeat they face in the hands of Boko Haram is as a result of how their C-in-C, Jonathan has chosen to use them. The terrain of the Niger Delta, a creek won't be understood by only the militants. The soldiers also do. Benjamin Adekunle fought in the creeks during the Civil War.

Yeah, you are right. Your use of "Majorly" shows that you know that other ethnic groups are present in MEND. The Nigerian army cannot defeat MEND. We better not pray for any conflict with them. I won't take part in mentioning names.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Overrate?! Have I taken a trip there? I should be asking you those questions. Do I sound like I'm talking of suppositions. I worked with your Govt on issues concerning the area in the past.

Anyway, bookmark all I've said. 2015-2019 is around the corner.

If you have been to the creeks, then your point of view (ease of dealing with MEND in a conflict) is surprising. I don't pray for conflict in 2015-2019. Just know that if MEND comes up again, it will indeed be a turning point in Nigeria's history.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Abacha almost succeeded. Actually, he basically succeeded but for his death. Wait until next year when you might not have an opposition party any longer and then all I'm saying will become clearer to you.

Abacha "almost" succeeded until he was "eliminated". The web of political interests in Nigeria is too complex for one individual to stay in power for too long.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Niger-Delta won't do that to itself. Your oil is almost worthless. We don't buy from you anymore, Prices are dwindling and demand is low. If you blow up your own pipelines because you lost an election you will be worse off. All I know is, a determined Govt will deal ruthlessly with a bunch of militants hiding in creeks if they want to. Do not compare thinking leaders and those bereft of ideas. OBJ, Yar Adua and co agreed to amnesty because they are corrupt too and they needed the kickbacks from the Oil companies so they had to tread lightly. A Govt that doesn't seek or collect bribes will tear the so called militants apart in less than 14days because they will be treated as enemies of the Nigerian state.

Anyway, like I said, no ethnic group will sacrifice it's members for the sake of the perceived grievance of an obvious criminal gang.

You are obviously over-rating the level of conscience of these militants. If they are backed by powerful political influence, the kind of havoc that they will unleash will be unimaginable. They are used to military actions against their own people.

Have you been to the Niger-delta creeks before? Take a trip down there and see why soldiers were killed like amateurs. It will not be easy to contain them. It will all end in another round of political empowerment and economic bounty in the form of amnesty, if it ever happens again.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Because he hasn't crippled the opposition hard enough. If he wins, most of the men in APC today will flee to PDP leaving Buhari, Oyegun, Tinubu and co to their faith. Nigeria will become a one-party state. Once that happens Nigeria immediately becomes Cameroon and Uganda...until full scale war breaks out.

If you think GEJ won't try for tenure elongation once more, then you need to wake up from your slumber.

....and other ambitious politicians in PDP will succumb cowardly for him to be a life president? The leaders from North, East and West of Nigeria in PDP will just fold their hands and stare at him? This is why I said that you should go and look at Nigeria's history. Even almighty Abacha, with his absolute power, fell like a pack of cards.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Oh, really? Please do us all a favor and take a quick survey on which members of those tribal groups will willingly tote guns on behalf of MEND in a confrontation with the Nigerian Army.

Keep deceiving yourself.

Given the outcome of the last MEND war (amnesty bounty), do you think it will be difficult to get boys from Niger-delta back to the creeks? Be careful about what you wish for. I pray that no militant group should ever return or emerge.

ISpiksDaTroof:
No, you check your history. My history and yours are very different.

Your President tried for tenure elongation just 3weeks after he was President.

He tried again a year later begging for it to be changed from 6yrs to 7yrs.

He has very recently started bandying around "2yrs more plus election postponement", that has failed to catch traction.

If you think PDP will be the majority party next year, with GEJ as President, then in 2019 they'll willingly give up power, then you might not be as smart as you think yourself to be.

GEJ is borrowing straight out of the play books of Paul Bila and Yuweri Musevini.

You vindicated my response to you. My question to you is, "why didn't GEJ succeed in implementing his planned tenure extensions?" Answer that, then you'll know why I told you that a life president is impossible in Nigeria.

ISpiksDaTroof:
The Ijaw group is too minuscule in size to even envision challenging the Nigerian state. They simply to not have the manpower. And when it comes down to the come down, they will realize they have no friends as their present "Ally" will remember '67-70 and leave them to their fate.

MEND stands for "MOVEMENT FOR THE EMANCIPATION OF THE NIGER-DELTA". Membership of this group includes, IJAWS, URHOBOS, ITSEKIRIS, EFIK, IBIBIO AND IGBOS. MEND is beyond the IJAWS.

If they are backed by a strong political interest, they can wreak an extraordinary havoc on Nigeria's economic wellbeing. The oil resources in the Niger-delta is their strength. Take it away, they are more or less like BOKO HARAM.

ISpiksDaTroof:
The Niger Delta cannot sneeze if GEJ loses. If they try it, you'll see that the same Govts that have refused to assist Nigeria over terrorism because of the criminals at the helm, will supply weapons and intelligence to ensure the oil supply continues. Who will fight the Nigerian Army on behalf of the Ijaws in that Region? The Ibos? Edos? Deltans? Calabar? Akwa Ibom? Who?! They will bear the brunt of the Nigerian Army alone. All the big talk you hear Asari and co making is because they know their final destination will be prison once a new Govt comes in and their crimes against Nigeria is exposed for the world to see.

THE WEST DOES NOT HAVE PERMANENT FRIENDS. THEY HAVE PERMANENT INTERESTS. THEY ARE AFTER THE BENJAMINS AND LIZZIES. We know which group will readily make these available to them. May God forbid such a situation.

ISpiksDaTroof:
That's the trick. If GEJ "wins" in 2015, he will ask for an extension when his term is almost over in 2019, then before you know it GEJ is Nigeria's first life President. That has been the aim from day one.

That is not possible in the FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA. Check your history.

Adminisher:
You must be smoking something really bad to have posted this trash. You have just ridiculed our democracy with this trash. So MEND will be allowed to subvert the free expression of our fundamental human right of voting in an elected government. This is a very weak argument to compel us to support GEJ. Maybe you guys already know now that he will lose the popular vote.The Niger Delta is part of Nigeria and the most dependent one at that. The naval blockade and air strikes on MEND installations will affect the region and cause untold hardship on the ND peoples. Starvation will be used as a weapon of war, disease and criminality will ensue. Women and Children will bear the full brunt. Civil society will cease to function. I don't think you have thought about the effects of what you are suggesting properly. This idiotic argument can also be extended to even 2019 as well and you are more or less saying GEJ may as well do ten terms in office. Please stop smoking bad stuff and reason properly.

My intention is not to make you to vote for Jonathan. I really don't care about who you vote for. I will prefer you to vote who you wish to vote, it will help to advance Nigeria's democracy. That, however, does not change the threat posed by the increasing use of militancy as a means of political agitation.

The modus operandi of these groups is actually to waste the lives of their kins just to gain political points. Women, Children and senior citizens are the casualties. This is true about MEND AND BOKO HARAM. My view does not imply that I enjoy these killings. The truth must be told anyway.

I respect your point of view, but you can make your point without being insolent.

Asoozy:
Is this a stake attempt at hoodwinking the electorate to vote Jonathan out of fear?

No, it is not. It will be a shame if you are so passionate about change yet fear the consequences of change, no matter how deadly it may be.

helphelp:
Isn't it obvious anyone who reads your post will subliminally vote GEJ come 2015.

Meanwhile, most of your points will be checked if the new government keeps the Amnesty programme going.

It's just a shame, all these politicians are all the same

This post is not meant to change anyone's voting pattern. It is a revelation of some obvious occurrences that will emerge as a result of a loss by GEJ in 2015. In fact, it will be a shame for anyone to change their plan to honor a candidate with their votes based on this thread. However, if you want change, you must be ready for the consequences of change.

Amnesty is a farce. Militants (generally) make more money from illegal activities in the creeks than from the stipends from government. It is the promise of political control that stemmed their activities.

atlwireles:
Based on your assumptions would you be buying, selling or holding, Nigeria Treasury Securities notes.

I really have no interest that warrants doing any of those.

olapluto:
I understand how you feel, but you made many assumptions.
1. The incoming government will be much much stronger than the current government. It is PDP that allows thugs like MEND to have the chance. A tough government will stamp out such groups as soon as they form.
2. if the government performs, there will be no distrust, so no war, ethnoreligious conflicts or such
3. All that GDP bla bla bla will not be that way if we have a ballsy president like Buhari.

1. You may need to define what you mean by a strong government. My dear friend, there are so many powerful governments in Nigeria. Unfortunately, they are ethnic and religious based. One of such governments is in the Niger-Delta creeks. If you are talking about "Strong" in terms of money and weapons, that government in the creeks of Niger delta can hold Nigeria on the balls till your perceived strong central government begs in submission. I am speaking from a historical perspective of Nigeria's politics.

2. You should know by now that the single most destructive impediment to Nigeria's progress is ethno-religious bigotry. Governments are seen not to perform well just because the leader is seen to be from a wrong ethnic group. As sad as it is, it is the truth.

3. GDP has nothing to do with a president with guts or balls, it has to do with investment rate, employment rate, export vs import rate, domestic consumption and government expenditure. If you destabilize the polity, you destroy the GDP. Like I told you, it will take more than balls and goodwill to stop a rampaging Nigerian militant group.

tomakint:
@Justcash, apologies on the 'bat' comparison but permit me to voice out my contrary view on your submission...Nigerian Politics on National level is built around the 'highest bidder and winner takes it all Scheme' APC stands no chance of taking a 'Power Grab' from PDP (you can quote me) why? APC is an amalgamation of coloured views that stem from witch-hunting, fault-finding and propaganda. Opposition with sense ended with Pa Awo's Action Group! Your Prophecy is fallacious...my point!

I respect your view. Unfolding political events will prove if your confidence is concrete.

atlwireles:
In other words just the same situation as we currently have?

Nope, a situation worse than we had before 2007 elections

atlwireles:
Can you offer a more detail explanation on numbers 8,9,10. Also, what would you be doing now on Nigeria government papers. Are you buying, selling or holding your positions.

8. The re-emergence of MEND as a political tool, just as BOKO HARAM, will encourage the perception of militancy as an effective tool for political dominance. The philosophy behind MASSOB, OPC and other smaller groups will change and they will adopt destruction as a tool for political agitation at the ethnic level. At the moment, this perception is salient.

9. As usual, after the military approach to militancy has failed, they will be called to a round table, and the conditions that will be tendered will change the political system in Nigeria. This will be strongly opposed by the ethnic group that will see such a move as a means of diminishing their dominance.

10. Global political bodies will surely intervene to stem the impending anarchy, especially those with their eyes on the Nigerian economy.

Sorry, can you rephrase the question in bold? I don't understand what you mean.

atlwireles:
I like to see the consequences if APC fails to win.

That is actually meant for another topic. However, the consequences are going to be mild compared to the ones above. This is because in GEJ's case, it will be a case of resistance to change from a powerful party (PDP).
The bulk of the consequences of APC's loss will be from the Northern Oligarchy due to their antagonism towards the political status quo.

Richie0974:
So in a sentence sha....Vote for GEJ 2015...so DAT dz won't happen.....LIES!!!

No, please endeavor to vote who you wish. This thread is not meant to promote any party. There are also consequences if APC FAILS TO WIN. I only chose to focus on the consequences of GEJ's loss. If you reflect on Nigeria's politics, you'll see that these prophesies will come to pass if GEJ is voted out.

tomakint:
@ Op I love your type of dreams if all humans can be compared to animals I will likened you to be a bat (sleeping in a downward position) I am surprised that you fail to factor in the reality that 'Jonathan will most likely win in 2015' this is common knowledge. Well, I will encourage you to keep dreaming, afterall 'dreams' are free!
Bottomline: Buhari+Atiku+Tambuwal are not enough to unseat Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, it's daytime already stop dreaming and feeling giddy!

I like your profound optimism, but I really am not affiliated to any political position in 2015. However, as a political and economic analyst with a strong understanding of the dynamics in Nigerian politics, I can assure you that GEJ's liberal political approach (commendable) has erased the power of incumbency in the political calculations of 2015 general elections.

For your information, there are also consequences (mild) if the North fails to grab power in 2015. It is a political stalemate.

Your bat description is unnecessary.

I am writing this piece without political affiliation. I foresee some horrifying occurrences if Jonathan is voted out of power in 2015.

1. AN ENERGIZED MEND WILL RETURN TO THE CREEKS WITH RENEWED VIGOR TO DESTROY NIGERIA ONCE AND FOR ALL

2. I ADVISE NIGERIANS TO BRACE UP FOR ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, BECAUSE IN A FEW MONTHS AFTER THE LOSS OF GEJ, OIL PRODUCTION WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO AND NIGERIA'S ECONOMY WILL TAKE A TUMBLE

3. THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL BE BUSY FIGHTING MILITANCY FOR THE DURATION OF THEIR TENURE, JUST TO STABILIZE THE ECONOMY AND FIND FUNDS TO EMBARK ON DEVELOPMENTAL PROJECTS

4. THE WAR IN THE NORTH EAST WILL BE A JOKE COMPARED TO THE WAR THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE NIGER-DELTA. HAVING LEARNT FROM BOKO HARAM, MEND WILL CAPTURE AND CLAIM VITAL (OIL HUBS) TERRITORIES

5. THE DEBT PROFILE OF NIGERIA WILL INCREASE TO AN UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL DUE TO GOVERNMENT'S RESORT TO BORROWING AND SHORT-FALLS IN THE ECONOMY

6. NIGERIA'S GDP WILL TAKE A TUMBLE

7. THE FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION BY THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL BE VIEWED FROM AN ETHNO-RELIGIOUS ANGLE AS A WITCH-HUNT, AND ETHNO-RELIGIOUS DIVISIONS WILL WIDEN

8. THE THREAT OF DIVISION WILL BE MORE APPARENT THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN AS COUNTER-MILITANCY SOLUTIONS WILL BE ADOPTED BY NIGERIAN ETHNIC GROUPS

9. I SEE A NEW REGIONAL AND POLITICAL SYSTEM BEING PROPOSED TO REDUCE ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS BASED SUSPICION, WHICH WILL BE OPPOSED BY A CERTAIN REGION

10. NIGERIA WILL BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

Most Nigerians don't know how dicey the political situation in Nigeria is. Nigeria is in a stalemate. 2015 will indeed redefine Nigeria in all ramifications. I PRAY FOR MY DEAR COUNTRY.

EroZA:
1.those companies are not only doing business in nigeria
2.no country will have desire to invest in a country where private businesses get subjected to threats by politicians
3.those companies are uniquely south African,even if Nigerians can try to emulate,things will never be the same
4.the government of SA can look for other countries as alternative to replace Nigeria target market
5.South Africans don't think like Nigerians therefore nobody will ever think of killing zuma because his government did not go to Nigeria and violated the laws of that country.
5.if Nigerians are capable of creating businesses that can match those ,what are you guys waiting for,I would love to see Nigerian big businesses in SA filling the gap currently occupied by these Nigerian barbershops,shoemaker shops,hair salons and taverns
6.on Tuesday president Jonathan and some of his cabinet members were here,he assured south Africa that south African businesses in Nigeria are in safe hands and there are no threats against them
7.your oil money will be realesed anytime from now,
8.dont create unnecessary enemies,there is no country that can survive without the outside world....
my name is EroZa ..this is my personal opinion

Your question was; CAN NIGERIANS DO WITHOUT THE SERVICES OFFERED BY SOUTH AFRICANS? My answer is, "YES". I justified my answer based on your question.

As for your response, especially the highlighted ones, I'll calmly conclude that you know nothing about Nigerians, and I'll stop there because your intention is far more malicious than sincere and objective. More importantly, TIME IS CASH.

Question: Can Nigerians Do Without The Services Provided by South Africans?

Answer: Yes. There are several ways Nigerians will survive;

1: Nigerian companies will take over and absorb the human resources that will be laid off by the South African Companies.

2: Other foreign brands will fill the little vacuum created by the South African companies, especially due to the profit potentials of providing such services to Nigerian consumers that are known to have a high domestic consumption history.

3: Nigerians can easily survive on the small scale service providers that they were more accustomed to before the entry of South African Companies.

Question: Who will suffer if South African companies are sent packing?

Answer: SOUTH AFRICAN COMPANIES will lose so much money that some of them may never be able to recover. This is in the form of human, financial and physical assets, along with potential profits.

THE NIGERIAN WORKERS of these South African companies will lose from being laid off, however many of them will be reabsorbed into new or competing companies that will emerge to fill the gap.

THE NIGERIAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS will lose valuable incomes in the form of tax and other incomes. Some foreign investors may be scared of investing in Nigeria as a pedigree will be built i.e. Investing in Nigeria will be viewed as being risky. However existing foreign companies in Nigeria will understand the dynamics in Nigeria and see the opportunities available.

CONCLUSION: South African Companies will rather kill Zuma than allow him to even think of letting the Nigerian government to kick them out. On the Nigerian side, the response of the government will determine how acceptable the diplomatic action will seem to Nigerians. If the vacuum left by the South Africans is effectively filled by local or foreign firms, it will mean that it is a total loss for the South Africans, especially their companies and government.

EroZA:
you are the giant of Africa,stop crying and show little SA your muscles

Don't worry, when the matter is tabled and dealt with by Nigeria, Zuma and his ministers will come and beg for reconciliation as usual.
Then, you'll know that being the Giant of Africa is not by producing weapons.

Nigeria urgently needs to mark South Africans as enemies of the Nigerian state and treat them accordingly.

If all they do is to seek for everything negative about Nigeria with an intention of exposing sensitive deals and tarnishing Nigeria's image further, Nigeria needs to hit them back in anyway we can.

IF THEY DONT WISH TO SELL WEAPONS TO US, STOP TRYING TO BUY FROM THEM. GO TO RUSSIA AND CHINA, THEY WILL SELL TO US.

I am only happy about the fact that these embarrassments by SouthAfricans will make Nigeria conscious of the need to develop domestic weapon manufacturing capabilities. DICON MUST BE REVAMPED AND REPOSITIONED TO MAKE THESE WEAPONS AT HOME.

Nonsense!!

MrKnowitall: There is a reason why i said "credible manufacturer"

On what basis was your credibility standard determined?


I completely disagree with your assertion about the existence of only 22 "credible" auto manufacturers. If you must make such statements, don't generalize.