₦airaland Forum

Dear Mr. Junaid

Dear Mr. Junaid

GOD BLESS THESE BRAVE NIGERIAN MEN AND WOMEN. MAY VICTORY BE ALWAYS THEIRS.

As for all manner of enemies like Boko Haram, holllly Ghooooost Fire burn dem all!

Asoozy:
Shut up dia!

I know your history! Even you can talk? You this Biafran KKK!

You sound so sad. Try to cheer up. It's good for healthy living. Just saying though.

Asoozy:
Rubbish! Why can ibos stay but an Olufunmi Joseph cannot?
Cotonou people have more rights in Lagos than non-Yorubas!

Now I understand why you were so pained in my thread about my prophesy of the outcomes if GEJ is voted out in 2015. I have to sincerely tell you that your type of mindset and line of thought is retrogressive to national progress. Not only will it not give you progress as a Nigerian, it will potentially lead you to unnecessary confrontations, both online and physically. I just hope you understand that to hold someone down, you have to be down too.

egift:
It is only Corrupt Politicians and their sychophants who made their money by duping Nigeria that are afraid of Buhari.

Buhari is elected will free these cash back to the system and also ensure that people do not blatantly steal government funds. That implies that there will be more money in the economy to develop the Nation and empower Nigerians to prosperity.

Every Nigerian must do all they can to make sure Buhari is elected. And that few rich men do not buy our soul, fortunes and the future of Nigeria.

Be careful about how you trust politicians. There is a difference between being a president and striving to be one. Most importantly, you must always remember that politics is about who gets "What", "When" and "How". For example, knowing the need to protect political allies, will heads like those of Tinubu and Atiku roll too if Buhari wins? The difficulty in answering that question is exactly what I mean. It is a different ball game when you on the hot seat.

That been said, I share your optimism.

AIRDIG:
I am not a Buhari supporter. You can verify this by going through my posts.
I am just against the falsehood being peddled all over the media

Thou shall not lie -Source: 10 commandments

You are right, but your well presented statistics still reflected the fact that the North was greatly favored. Irrespective of the religious differences, the North was politically united in the 60s, 70s and 80s. It's not like I see anything strange in it. It's just that some of the statements about Buhari being biased in political appointments may have been true, if you look at them objectively. I also agree that some statements about him are pure lies, but I've seen more statements with evidence than mere assertions.

@AIRDIG;

Your attempt to justify Buhari's ethno-religious impartiality is well worked out. However, I am sure that his utterances like the famous one about the "Dogs and Baboons being soaked in blood" in the event of a loss in 2015 and his statement encouraging Muslims to vote for only Muslim presidential aspirants greatly drown your commendable effort. His reasons for these statements may be clean, but he erred by not considering the level of ethno-religious suspicion in Nigeria.

Dereformer:
What most people don't know is that OBJ and IBB would rather die than see GMB become the president of this country.

True. Apart from them, there are hundreds of billionaires that made their fortunes through corrupt means in Nigeria that will not want to hear about Buhari as the president of Nigeria. It will be a difficult task for him to win in the current political configuration.

I have reflected on the reasons behind the continuous failure of Buhari in the presidential race, and I was able to come up with few reasons why he may never be able to beat any presidential aspirant from PDP.

1: POWER OF INCUMBENCY
I have heard a lot of Nairalanders boasting about enforcing the proper counting of the people's vote. In NIGERIA, the people's vote can never count except the ruling party wants it that way. Due to the enormous power at their disposal, the ruling party can easily conjure political tricks to coerce electoral officials to do what they want, even if it means incurring collateral damage. I'm sure that is why PDP is currently quiet, observing how to conjure this scheme.

2: BUHARI'S RELIGIOUS POSTURE:
Buhari is currently being seen as an Islamic fundamentalist. Whether it is true or not is a story for another day. The truth is that his historical utterances about religious issues that are considered sensitive has permanently carved his picture as an Islamic supremacist in the hearts of many Nigerian Christians. The pattern of voting in the 2011 election reflected this feeling. Majority of the Christian south voted against him. It may potentially work against him in 2015.

3: EMERGENCE OF BOKO HARAM AND INCESSANT ATTACKS BY HAUSA AND FULANI MUSLIMS IN THE MIDDLE BELT:
A united Northern Nigeria would have guaranteed victory for any presidential aspirant from Northern Nigeria like Buhari. However, the religious based conflict that is currently going on in the Northern region have done a great disservice to such aspirants. Buhari will suffer from this. Even if some Part of Western Nigeria are currently rooting for him, a combo of majority votes (up to 85%) from the SE, SS AND MB, combined with a big chunk from the West and a little chunk from the Core North will guarantee victory for any aspirant against BUHARI.

4: POLITICS OF CORRUPTION :
This is the most controversial but significant factor that will give GEJ lots of vote against BUHARI. The tagline of most opposition party officials and supporters about Buhari is, "The Incorruptible Leader". The truth is that this tagline will work against him. The corrupt officials that are currently reaping enormously from the status quo will use all the resources they have to fight against the emergence of an incorruptible leader. Even the people's power, as far as Nigeria is concerned, cannot defeat these political goons. It will take a generally accepted leader that is very charismatic to effect this kind of change. That, as sad as it may be, is what Buhari is not.

5: PAST LEADERSHIP RECORD:
The past leadership record of Buhari as an iron fisted dictator will definitely work against him, especially since he is competing against a more liberal GEJ. His supporters and party perceive this as the antecedence of a great leader. However, the generality of Nigerians, especially from the Southern region of Nigeria, will view his aspiration as a great threat to human right. This is mostly true among pro-democracy proponents, academics and technocrats.

These are some few factors that I could identify that will potentially work against BUHARI, his true intention not withstanding. If I was in a position to advise APC, I will tell them to look beyond Buhari and pick someone like BABATUNDE FASHOLA or even ROCHAS OKOROCHA. These are some of the good leaders that may give PDP A REAL NIGHTMARE.

If Ebola was not contained, who would have been blamed?

The person in your answer should be praised now that the disease has been contained.

If you don't think the person in question should be praised, you need to urgently cleanse yourself of acute bias.

geophyscist:
op i am sorry to tell you these, you are fool at 40 and fool at 40 is a fool forever but i guess you are morethan 40 and have graduated to a nicumpu.

Sir, you can actually make a point without resorting to insult. Cool down.

Asoozy:
Oh please drop the charade! You know that your intentions are not pure and you're only here to blackmail naive people to vote your incompetent gej with the tactic of scaremongering.

You are nothing but an ibo supremacist abeg!

Whether you like it or not, the people's will, will prevail and no amount of scare tactic will stop it!

Amen to your words in bold. Your feeling is well understood.

1bunne4lif:
this should not be heard from any true compatriot of nigeria. politics is just a game, i wonder why people kill themselves knowing fully well that its of no benefit. its not a do or die affair and predicting doom for the country if a particular candidate does not win election is uncalled for. let us watch our tongues!!! THE WORLD IS WATCHING. PEACE.

Our politicians don't see it as a game. They see it as a matter of life and death. The masses are weapons for achieving their deadly political exploits, unfortunately. We need to wake up to this reality.

Gorrbachev:
It has come to threats.

No, this thread was not created to threaten you or anyone. I truly have no political affiliation or interest in the 2015 general elections. I encourage you to vote for the candidate that you wish for.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Your other posts on the issue kinda made sense, but--- sorry to say--- this one is disappointingly trash.

It's okay, your view is respected. I guess you under-estimate the consequences of a PDP politicians' backed MEND group. I pray it doesn't come to that.

fes2ga:
You are still dreaming, let Buhari win and let mend rear up his head you will know that Buhari regime is not a govt of impunity,justice will naturally takes its course....

It will really not be easy to crush MEND or any similar group in the Niger-delta. If they truly decide to paralyze Nigeria's economy, it will actually be a big political blunder for Buhari (if he wins) to use a military option. As sad as it may sound, he will buy into an idea of the reconfiguration of Nigeria's political structure when the consequences starts to emerge. MEND is more harmful and difficult to deal with than BOKO HARAM. Their hits touch the rich and the poor, unlike BOKO HARAM.

Asoozy:
I respect and understand that you will stop faking the funk and stop patronising me.

I'm not your average gullible Nigerian.

Thank you!

The dynamics in Nigeria's politics is so complicated that it is important to tackle issues one after the other. I don't intend to go into issues about intentions of leaders to be life presidents. It will divert discussions from the topic.
Contrary to your feeling, I also don't intend to patronize you. If you feel that I am being fake, I'm okay with it. Though I'll advise you to keep an open mind and join discussions about the subject matter. After all said and done, we are all Nigerians.

Asoozy:
By saying all information be disseminated means that no barriers must be erected to subvert a balanced debate.the opposite is what you are trying to do. You want readers and contributors to stay in your streamlined argument in the ruse to get them to buy your warped logic. Unfortunately for you not all are gullible and try as you have, your trickery is being unveiled.

And you will do well not to patronise me again, mister.

Thank you!

I reiterate that my aim here is not to convince you or make you to change your mind about voting for who you don't want. I just think that drifting away from the topic is not ideal. I expect that you'll respect and understand my intention to stay within the boundaries of the current discussion.

Asoozy:
Sorry but you don't get to dictate what will and wouldn't be discussed in so far the bone of contention is with regard to the possibility of disintegration of the entity then by all means, we must have a balanced discussion and the country's antecedents fully analysed.

Don't set the parameters for this discussion. You are neither a moderator nor is this the national conference where you assume the position of Jonathan and tell us referendum is off the table.

Look at the statements in bold and see how much you contradicted yourself. You need to calm down and focus on the topic. I respect your freedom to choose what you want in all ramification. You must respect mine too.

Asoozy:
Potatoe -potato.

Uncontrollable despot you say? Now tell me what would have brought that about.

No, let's discuss it here, it's all related.

You're not trying to shy away from the true facts here, are you now?

Give honour to whom it's due abeg!

My point is that, no Nigerian can lead Nigeria for life. If it was possible, people like OBJ would still be in power now. Perpetuation in Power is being fought by Nigerians from every ethnic group, not only western Nigerians.

I am sorry, but this is not the place to discuss about that. It is an issue that can be left for another thread.

Gbawe:
@OP

No disrespect, but your entire analysis is ridiculed by one point you fundamentally misread. If GEJ loses to a landslide opposition victory, then I would really think it would be virtually impossible for MEND to ferment trouble. It would be obvious to the entire world that GEJ was not prevented from running. It was Nigerians who rejected him overwhelmingly. What would their agitation be based upon and who would support an undemocratic refusal to accept that Nigerians in the majority have clearly chosen their President even if that man is not GEJ?

Never forget that, In the past, it could be argued somewhat meritoriously that the MEND cause was just. You are now remaking them in the image of politically compromised and born-to-rule criminals. There would be no sympathy for MEND under such a drastic 'facelift' and completely revised modus operandi. Most Nigerians would overwhelmingly support that the group be crushed since it now only wants to be anarchic for the sake of it and for the political fortune of one man rather than because of any 'injustice' committed against a people or their land. No one nowhere would stand for a 're-branded' MEND, acting as a political militia group for GEJ and his leadership ambition, blackmailing Nigeria.

The rest of your points, like that above you get very wrong, just show a predilection for scaremongering not predicated on solid cause-and-effect logic.

I respect your point of view, however you seem to overlook certain factors.
First, Buhari is currently being canvassed by mainly Core Northern and Western Nigerians. The East, South and Mid-belt are all tilted towards GEJ. This is based on the collective suspicion of a "born-to-rule" agitation by the North, which, unfortunately, Buhari is seen to represent. The suspicion over the North's seeming support of Boko Haram as a means of grabbing power by all means is not helping matters. The sentiment of "if Boko Haram succeeds for them, then MEND will rise for us" is very much real. If you don't know, know it now.

Secondly, Niger-deltans currently feel that there is a gang-up by the North and West against their right to complete their 8 years cycle in the presidency. If you are not aware, then I am telling you now. They feel that they are being trampled upon because they are seen as a minority group, and that all the criticisms against GEJ are based on ethno-religious concerns. Infact, GEJ is seen as having contributed to the development of Nigeria more than most of the leaders before him.

Thirdly, GEJ is backed by the EAST (Igbos) and the Mid-Belt along with the South-South. To say that Buhari will be voted for overwhelmingly to the extent that foul play will not be perceived is false. Buhari, just like GEJ, cannot win clearly in an election. Stories of manipulations in the North and all that will come up. That alone is enough to drive up sentiments for political agitation. That is where resistance to change will emerge.

Finally, MEND can never be viewed as a criminal organization, as long as they are fighting for a better political calculation for their region. It is also very easy for them to win the sympathy of their people. We all know that Buhari and co will visit any uprising with untold military show of dominance, where innocent lives and villages will be destroyed. That is enough to win sympathy over to MEND. FYI, a new MEND will be 50 times more deadly than the one you saw before. The reasons are obvious; More willing youths to be used, politically backed by PDP politicians, more money to use for purchasing weapons, more skilled fighters e.g. ex-militants that can now fly jets etc.

Like I said, I respect your point of view. However, the political situation is more complex than you can ever imagine.

Asoozy:
Tell me why the northerners executed Abacha.

Executed is a harsh word to use. Elimination is better. Diverse interests and fear of an uncontrollable Despot was the chief reason among many. That, however, is a story for another thread.

Asoozy:
But he can. The only group that always agitate against injustice is the Yoruba. All he need do is get rid of those ones. Without the Yorubas He will get what he wants.

I don't think it is only Yorubas that agitate against injustice. It was Northerners that saw through the elimination of Abacha. The interests in Nigerian politics is just too complex for one man to overcome. It reflects in the confusion that is normally faced by Nigerian leaders. Too many hands in the cooking pot.

nuclearboy:
The difference "in this case" is that such would be an outright declaration of war. If you consider what I wrote, I clearly stated that what matters is the winner being TRULY the choice of the nation. In effect, if Nigerians truly want Buhari and then Dokubo says "no, I prefer and insist" on Jonathan. Its the same if we want Jonathan and any Hausa-Fulani (as BH did) says "No, I prefer a muslim". Refer to 2011 and even today. Boko Haram declared war on Nigeria but only got so far because funds for the war effort went into private pockets (there is even a possibility that some didn't even get to the generals) and because government itself politicized everything.

A serious leader with a military hierarchy alive to its role will wipe out any dissent. Please remember that war isn't just rifles - ND Militants are armed (we all know) but Automatic rifles, Machine guns and RPGs are the least in terms of arsenal. If fighting attrition warfare, fine (for a while) but we all just saw what true warfare is like at Konduga. Note also BH has Sambisa aside 3 massive states (land size) and were killing their own people more than anyone else - they had space to roam in. I doubt Dokubo and co will use N-Deltans the same way and the entire region is too small for boko-like tactics.

All in all, reality will soon strike

Hmmm, I will advise you to read about past operations by MEND. They announce where they want to attack and warn people to leave those targets before they hit them. Unlike Boko Haram, they burn down the economy, not people. They hit the government under the belt.

ba7man:
Daft mend will blow up pipelines thereby poluting the soil, water and air of their homelands while getting rich bunkering the oil.

They'll also stupidly use the money they get to invest in Lagos and Abuja at the expense of Niger delta states.

Sadly, you are right.

AnanseK:
I'm surprised you don't see this attempt coming. What was the national
Conference for?

GEJ does not have any intention of being a life president. He is aware that he cannot be one. Even if he decides to do it, he will not succeed because Nigeria is not a type of country that a single individual can lord over for life. Those that have tried it are no longer breathing.

Tokunbohkinibig:
@@Chukwudi44 and Justcash, let's try to be realistic when it comes to war, there is nothing like Civilian in a war to be honest. Forget about the world politics and propaganda when it suits them. Civilian will always and continue to be used as fighting tools in the hands of their rulers. Let's quickly take a look at second world war; pearl harbour to be precise. Japanese army attacked pearl harbour not U.S mainland but what was U.S response to this attack? I guess your answer is as good as mine - Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Nagasaki was estimated to have about 263,000 people just before it was nuked and these are civilians not soldiers. The same thing repeated itself in Hiroshima with total population of 250,000 civilians.

Civilians in Niger delta/any region ll continue to bear the brunt of insurgency in their respective regions just like what is obtainable in the North east at moment and that has been happening for the past 5yrs.

Frankly speaking, without civilians' support, MEND can't never wage a war against Nigeria state and succeed. No group of people would be able to wage a war against any government without help from their host community. Realistically, It ll be xtremely difficult for OPC to war in ABA or anywhere in South east cos Igbos populace would easily identify them and deal with them mercilessly cos OPC is not fighting for their causes. The same fate would befall Massob in South west too if Massob try anything in South west too; that is power of civilians when they are not involved in anything.

MEND fighters are mostly in the creeks and they can maneuver in the deepest and most violent parts of the ocean. The bombardment of villages in the past have proven to escalate than de-escalate their agitation. After the bombardments, foot soldiers head to the villages. They kill, rape and plunder, then they are pointed towards the creeks to fish MEND fighters out. History is replete with tales of horrible deaths and shameful capitulation by Nigerian soldiers. It is indeed something we need to pray against because the Nigerian military cannot curtail the destructive capacity of MEND.

Unlike BOKO HARAM, MEND operates in a fluid manner in the creeks and they take down important economic facilities rather than civilian lives, which is why it takes only a short time for them to win these civilians over. We must pray more than boast.

Emmanuel602:
The op must be high on weed or an adent GEJ supporter

I am politically neutral. If GEJ loses and my prophesies manifest, please try to remember then that I gave you a clue before hand.

FYI: I don't smoke

Lordlexyy:
Dude, you failed on arrival. Your subtle attempt to drive fear into Nigerians and egolise the capability of Mend over our Nigerian army is unhiden. If you base your 'prophecy' on the noise and threat of some few inconsequential criminals in the Niger Delta, you are mistaken. I don't see the wider populace in the N Delta given support to any arms group if the new government step up effort to address the many years of neglect that even their 'son' fails to pay attention. Mend will most likely be treated as criminals not by the Nigerian gov't but also by foreign gov't if attempt is made by Mend to disrupt effort meant to revive the region. How far Mend go without the cooperation and support of its people remain to be seen. If at all there is any uprisen, believe you me, it won't take time to stamp it, not with the position gov't has taken and lesson learnt after the manace of boko haram.

No, my intention is not to instill fear and eulogize MEND. I don't believe anybody that wants change should be scared of the resistance that will come with it. There will always be resistance to change. If my piece made you scared, then you need to have a rethink about the foundation of your political orientation.

rman:
That means you don't know any and he is right.

Nah, you don't deserve to know. I expect you to just live with it like that.

Tokunbohkinibig:
I have said this before and i ll repeat it again, MEND had the support of people outside and within that region before Jonathan became a Nigerian president. People within and outside that region felt that they were marginalised and abandon over the years but having been given presidency and amnesty for the past five years has now changed the whole equation against MEND as at today.

Thousands of souls ll be lost Unprecedentedly in that region if MEND try anything funny and I can see these rich militants disappearing to thin air cos of their wealth, they wouldn't want to die like chickens. Niger delta ll be the battlefield; the entire region will turn out to be a mini Mogadishu in Somalia. Those Hausa/fulani soldiers.......

If MEND goes to war with Nigeria state, it ll be disastrous for MEND and d entire region cos Nigeria government will not only deal with MEND alone but the entire region. Trust me, Odi ll be a child play to what would happen this time around.

Unlike previous government, the new government ll ruthlessly deal with MEND having learnt from their past history and boko haram insurgency.

You are right, the FG will fight with the military, but MEND will bring economic disaster. The Oil pipelines will go up in flames and the military will be drafted to fight in the creeks where they will be subdued. Negotiations will start again, only this time, the demand will be for a new political system, which will be strongly opposed by a certain region.