₦airaland Forum

FirstSon01:
As the buildup to the 2023 presidential elections intensifies, and as campaigns start next month, Nigerians are increasingly getting involved in the conversation.

As for me, I believe Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is the best candidate in the run up.

What about you??

Please close this thread.

PDP Na third

Herdsmen:
It will take a miracle and magic for Obi to win anambra state

We’re patiently waiting to see the humans from anambra that will work for Obi

Or you’re following the latest on Victor Umeh and his attempt to preach Obi to. Anambrains ?

Talk more of south south

Which state in south will obi win a local government y

Delta
Cross River
Rivers
Akwaibom
Bayelsa
Edo
Ondo

Name the state obi win win local government not state ..


Power to the people
North 2023

Are these tears I'm tasting?

Sorry o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8cGiI16DUE

Herdsmen:
Na house be structure ?

House is good for a party .. but without structure the house is build on sinking sand

Fact check..

Since Obi online and offline campaign and town hall rallies

OBi has not been able to gather the crowd Asiwaju gathered in Ota

Or the humans Kwankwanso gatherd in lafia

Abi Na ones wey cluster Atiku in Adamawa abi wedding in yobe

Plus obi online likes and shares on every social media out lets .. plus their physical gathering no reach ..

Yet with their minority they make noise .. without even k owing they’re minorities

Make Una quick lose so Una go burn eastern Nigeria in peace

Dan Baba don cashout .. and he will not vote Obi

E sure

So funny

No be our prayer be that?

We want many votes for Atiku and Kwankwaso. Those were previously APC votes.

Leave SS/SE for us. Bloc votes there will win the election for Peter Obi.

Few months ago, a vote for LP was regarded a waste.

Today na PDP dey that bracket!

Please support Kwankwaso so that Northern APC votes will divide more!

South locking down for ObiDatti!

Sammy07:
Actually it held, they blocked roads, my friend told me about it

He sent this pics

The first picture is real. No crowd. The latter two are still from social media

Kennedyli:
Expected. Kwakwanso always pulls crowd wherever he goes. Same as Atiku and Tinubu.

The difference with Obi is that he doesn't have to be there to pull crowd. And he doesn't even know of the planning most times.

Oil dey your head!

I'm so happy for him.

APC Northern votes decreasing by the day...

Can you see the mockery APC is putting Christians through and still asking for votes?

I want to safely assume all APC supporters are Muslim at this point.

IreneJane:
Lol , sw, that's a joke , thank God u didn't put NE or NW. Whats ur definition of national spread sef

At least 25% in 24 states. I never said he'll win SW. Just needs to take 40-45%

Without time and date stamp?!

You think say you wise!

NaijaRoyalty:
Obi had to stop Soludo from opening the door for him , he will open the door by himself .

Obi, Is a man Nigeria needs right man

He's loved and respected by all

His hands are not shaking so he doesn't need help

famouscargo4u:
Cmon say what you know. PDP is still very strong in the East, very very strong in the south south and will only struggle in the south west.

I'm a Christian, I will not lie. Don't add SE to PDP camp ever again. I live there.

SS is going fast. Only Delta State and Rivers with the influence of their governors is left and even that is disappearing like smoke in the wind.

Attached below is the image of the summary of the 2019 elections.

From it, you can see that APC had approximately 15 million votes while PDP had 11 million.

Most of the PDP votes were localised to the SS/SE.
APC narrowly maintained a merger between SW and the North.

Lets draw from that for the 2023 elections.

PDP has divided now into PDP and LP. Since most of the votes for PDP in 2019 came from the SS, SE where LP has now gotten a stronghold, we can divide the PDP votes unequally between PDP and LP.

For purpose of ease, we can share the PDP votes in the last election and because LP has taken more of PDP ground, we can give LP 7 million votes and give PDP 4million.

APC still has their 15 million votes intact.

Now, we can see the trend. APC is quickly losing Northern votes to PDP. At the end of the day, this can knock of 4 million votes from their 15 to make it 11 million and give that 4 million to PDP to make theirs now 8 million.

So as it stands, APC: 11, PDP: 8 and LP: 7 million votes each.

Kwankwaso. He can easily knock off 1 million votes from APC in Kano to make the new count: APC: 10, PDP: 8 and LP:7 million votes each.

There's another confounder: SW and North Central are leaving APC and tilting LP. The duo could give LP a paltry 1.5 million votes off the APC count. This will make the new count: APC 8.5, PDP: 8 and LP: 8.5 million.

With this, APC and LP are tied in numbers.

One thing might count for LP: increased voter awareness. Turn out for that last election was a paltry 35%. I'm sure this election cycle will see as high as 50-60% voter turnout.

Most of the new PVC registrants are doing so for LP.

The last thing that might count for LP is Kaduna State. Yusuf Datti is from there and can scrape off some votes there too to add to the LP count.

These final two factors can give an edge to LP even if it is with 500k votes and grant them victory.

My advice to the ObiDatti camp is to mobilise adequate voter turnout in the SS/SE, campaign on the ISSUES in the SW and NC and give Datti the mandate to hand over a good number of votes from Kaduna State.

The rest will be history.

famouscargo4u:
I like the way you avoid mentioning North west and North East but Hello! Those regions have the highest votes which may swing the it in favour of whoever controls it.

The word I used was spread. Whoever wins those (most likely PDP) will be landlocked. PDP cannot campaign in the SW, SE and barely in the SS.

Remember you need to win 25% in 24 states to win.

They'll end up with only 12 states.

t2luv1:
Magic word being FAIR

Of course I knew what I was saying

Shots fired o!

Mandate2023:
Dreamer

South west r tolerance and civilise if not we won't be d commercial HQ due to our accommodating nature.....u guys r even threatening to kill anybody that paste tinubu poster

I lost your point at the onset of of your bad English. Can you go over it again?

This is not the only social network.

Make them spoil am na, we move to others

Fear the movement.

Ignore at your own peril

Hadsty23:
Where in the North has ever been to... not even to the SW.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FjkSUDDc0M


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcvEQodQe7A

AntonVince:
One of them was having at me earlier today for questioning their flawed, divisive strategy.

While Peter Obi goes round the contry, discussing issues and reeling out verifiable statistics to back them up, a ruling party that has been at the helm for almost 8 years has no single achievement to project.
All they do is go round the country inciting ethno-religious hate towards The Labour Party’s candidate.

It’s such a shame.

It's the folks that support such archaic leaders I pity.

Leveraging your future for ethnicity or religion.

Campaign never start o!

All this without giving "shi-shi"

madridguy:
To go and do what? Jagaban should concentrate on North West, SS and North Central.

No master strategist will tell you to ignore a region...

Even Buhari campaigned in the SE

E go hard am o!

Only Peter Obi has national spread now: SS, SE, NC, SW.

That's why he'll win in a fair election.

All they do is insult Peter Obi.

I'm an Obi fan but I really would like to hear from a Tinubu supporter what their plans to win this election is.

PDP alone is dealing with them in the North, LP in the south and even entering SW.

Let them stop trolling and discuss strategy, they won't!

Na wa

madridguy:
How many times should I be doing that again?

You could have skipped the thread instead Na...

You can place a link here of your previous permutation so I can honestly learn. No big deal

madridguy:
Poor permutation

Nigeria next president Insha Allah after PMB is Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Wonderful re-permutation by you.

You guys are just ridiculous. Counter what he said.

drlateef:
I am saying it with 100% conviction. I have not been brainwashed and will never be. We are seeing the legacy of Tinubu everyday in Lagos. We cannot see one legacy of Obi. You should search your conscience and follow the truth.

Let him come for debate or one live interview to talk and I'll know it's him that did it and can do it again.

Oga don age!

If you spent more time marketing your candidate rather than disparaging another, many he'll be able to pull of at least one one million man march.

Bravetunde:
Wow
Peter obi should not bother about ss/se region.
It is no longer news that the region is locked down for him.
He should concentrate on Yoruba Christians, middle Beltans and north.

He should still focus on them to ensure 90% votes. Without voter apathy, the votes from this regions will match and overtake Northern votes bringing an end to Northern supremacy on voting power.