₦airaland Forum

KarlTom:
Make una no vex...

Those who used to drop recommendations had been victimized in the past.

So it's up to everyone to do their research and act on it accordingly...

Lol!
The SEC/NGX seems to have reduced your work load now.
At least for some time to come, you don't have to worry to monitor and inform us about the closing price gain/loss for Oando!
Thanks for the efforts, though

OakPearl:
I do not support Oando’s delay in releasing their reports, but some times, we get so biased we don’t realize when we over-flog a simple matter.
This is not to chastise any individual directly or make a case for Oando; but the technical suspension on Oando is it different from that placed on Unity Bank, NPFMFB and others who also defaulted Rule 3.1?
Nothing new about this suspension in my opinion.
The only disadvantage for short term traders is the uncertainty of how soon they comply to get their funds out. That in itself could also turn a blessing in disguise.
As for long term investors in the bus, I even see it as an advantage because they might eventually get some more good updates on the new inroads they are making which could spike the price immediately after the suspension is lifted.
Better to keep an open mind because you can easily be misled and miss out on opportunities from a stock you actually have no quarrel with.

Yes, you are right but the problem here is that Oando is becoming too known for flouting SEC rules. They should have requested for a longer grace period when they missed the initial deadline of Sep30.
The SEC is obviously enraged at Oando's frequent failure to comply with its rules and might have taken this tough action after realizing how the S/Africa stock exchange took a similar hard stance when Oando failed to file on their bourse at the expected deadline.
Wale and Oando management must wake up!

BabsO2:
That's in prior years?
The unaudited 2023 showed positive free cashflow after paying interest due on loans.
I suspect they may have poor bookkeeping practices. And or their new auditors are slow (thinking about your prior comments on how some audit firms are slow)

Well, you may be right.
I am just thinking that some other liabilities from prior years may be falling due in the current year etc.
But if the auditors are the problem, then Oando must say so or insist that the auditors disclose it (even if mildly) in their report. It would be wrong for Oando to keep quiet and allow the auditors to ruin their reputation.

My organization had to pick a big fight with our external auditors on these delays; the only luck that we have is that we are not listed as a public company in Nigeria, so the pressure was contained internally.

chillykelly86:
Very crucial additional questions:

1. What're the costs of getting those crude oil in reserves out?
2. How fast can they be gotten out?
3. Is the value of the crude oil guaranteed, on the long run, vis-a-vis
global crude oil demand?

No matter our(African) arguments, the crude oil demand by the major consumers (North America, Asia and Europe) is not looking bullish. And we can't force crude oil down their throats, eventually. Thank God for Dangote Refinery: at least, we should have some level of energy security.

It is a fact that there has never been a single oil and gas upstream company in Nigeria's history which commands the quantum of oil and gas reserves that Oando has acquired, that has been declared bankrupt or liquidated because it was no longer a going concern!
Oando is having cashflow problems, but they have assets that are worth more than their total liabilities! How quickly they are able to generate the necessary liquidity to settle their liabilities is the challenge here!

emmanuelewumi:
Did you care to read the previous auditors comment about the going concern status?

That is the first thing I read before going through the financial.

A lot of information are in that small print, but most of us don't read it

I suspect they made a loss for HY2024, and are finding a way to delay the results until they release the Q3 2024 results. It is too early to insinuate that the cause is about the going concern or no going concern.

Look, the suspension of trading in the shares is even protecting Oando. The NGX should have allowed the share price to crash, and let people face the reality.
Sustaining the price at N89.65 is a favour being done to Oando and they are not deserving!

emmanuelewumi:
How long have you been in this market?
Have you been investing for 15 years and above?
Na today

Pardon me, I don't understand what your questions are driving at!
Yes of course, I have ben investing for more than 15 years

Bagwa:
MARKET BULLETIN


24 October 2024 NGXREG/IRD/MB79/24/10/24


Notification of Suspension of Trading in the Shares of Oando Plc

Trading License Holders and the investing public are hereby notified that pursuant to the provisions of Rule 3.1, Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing, (Default Filing Rules), which states that:

“If an Issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the Cure Period , The Exchange will:
a) Send to the Issuer a “Second Filing Deficiency Notification” within two (2) business days after the end of the Cure Period;
b) Suspend trading in the Issuer’s securities; and
c) Notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Market within twenty- four (24) hours of the suspension”,
trading in the shares of Oando Plc has been suspended from the facilities of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX or The Exchange) effective today, Thursday, 24 October 2024 for not filing their Audited Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2023.

In accordance with the Default Filing Rules set forth above, the suspension of trading in the shares of Oando Plc shall be lifted upon the submission of the relevant financial statements.


Godstime Iwenekhai
Head, Issuer Regulation Department

Wale and Oando must be held accountable for this! It is unacceptable and bad.
If the delay is caused by the auditors, then they must fire the auditors immediately . If they made a loss, they should just publish the loss. They are not the first company to make a loss!

emmanuelewumi:
From Apel

If this is true, then Wale and Oando must be held accountable. This is totally unacceptable and bad.
If they made a loss, they should just report it. They are not the first to make a loss.
All this shenanigans must stop

Princkez:
seems OANDO shares has been suspended from trading Today till they release 2023 Audited result...please verify ooo

It is bad for Oando to delay or default in releasing its results, but that does not mean that its shares would be suspended from trading just immediately. Tedies.
The unaudited reports for FY2023 had already been published, so technically only HY2024 is outstanding.

I am not making excuses for Oando, they must be held responsible for these delays and investor uncertainty.
However, sometimes, an inefficient external audit firm can also cause delays in finalizing the audited accounts thereby creating problems for the company.
My own organization is a victim of such inefficient external auditors. We used to finalize our accounts within 1 month after our financial year. We have done this for more than 15 years. A new external auditor (one of the Big 4) took over, they offered and agreed to prepare the accounts, but it took them almost 3 years to finalize the accounts for FY2020, because they were experiencing a lot of staff turnover (Japa).
We are currently finalizing our accounts for FY2021 and in arrears for accounts for FY2022 and FY2023, something that was never heard of before the new auditors took over. The previous auditors ( a Big 4 too) were far more efficient than the new one.

But Oando needs to be more up and doing with their audited accounts. These delays have serious implications for many stakeholders, especially investors

yMcy56:
Gained+10%
Closed @89.65!
Up with +N8.15k

Could it be that the NGX floor is aware of Oando's results?

KarlTom:
The undead is back!

Seems OandO is about to release something... and three new wives in the horizon

Seems Oando gained +10% today.
Please confirm!

undead:
Tinubu 4 for 4, Nigara up up, Oando up up.

This ''Undead'' man has now ''resurrected'' and started again; because of Oando

Trojan8:
Audited results are expected today, though I don't expect many changes from available unaudited numbers. The way they are hyping the release of this FS is crazy.

Observing.

All that is required of Oando is to, at least, break-even (and avoid making losses) in HY2024.
The additional revenue inflows in Q3 (and beyond) from the ENI assets would then indicate potential for some good profits going forward

BabsO2:
Chill small.
I think they are just talking about a special coordinated production and terminal delivery monitoring. They need to get their crude 100% delivered to their Brass terminal from production facilities. I can relate it to what Governor Diri of Bayelsa was saying on TV yesterday, that technology like drones should be deployed to monitor things. He made this comment while hosting a visit by the armed forces. Perhaps Oando is just talking about working with the likes of the governor, the armed forces and perhaps some local surveillance personnel to nip oil theft and pollution that lead up to a mess up of the state ground water and soil.

Okay, thank you for the explanation.
But you better ''talk to'' them if you ''know'' them.
Guys are not smiling!
We wait for Oando's HY2024 results; that is what we need to cool down nerves!

megawealth01:
Oando just dey look for wahala

There is even no mention of Oando establishing the so called ''production war room'' in the whole article or story.

designking:
https://leadership.ng/1mmbopd-project-oando-establishes-production-war-room-to-ramp-up-productions

This is a fallacious fantasy!
There is nothing like ''production war room''! Oil and gas is produced in the oil fields, not in any ''room'' anywhere.
Oando should cut this crap and focus more on delivering good production numbers from their now-revamped oil fields and their financial performance

JAOS:
https://thenationonlineng.net/fg-stops-export-of-cooking-gas-to-crash-price/

This is a deception.
The clause "... or import equivalent of exported LPG at cost reflective prices... " shows that the FGN is not serious because this clause will still give them the leeway to import LPG and sell to the masses at high prices.

Payunsin:
I have sold 75% of my Oando and am seeking the next loot oooo.
Royalexchange
Japaul
Honeywell
On my mind.
Egg heads, pls I need your advice.
The money large gaan

Go buy Oando again.
The second rally will start soon.

KarlTom:
OandO. +2.00%
ETERNA. ±
ARADEL. ±

Good job. Your efforts will not go unrewarded.
Oando will surely pay some reward for this Xmas, whether they like it or not

Poorfarmer:
to me they look funny, do ladies seriously love them that way?

The legs are not usually very visible or point of focus when people compliment your body or looks.
Again, working hard on the legs may mean that you could be limping or struggling with your walking steps for most of the time, which also discourages putting too much work or pressure on them when you are building the upper body.

But I think once the upper body is built up to some level, the focus should shift to building the lower parts of the body, especially the legs..

Realtruth2023:
Hold on stop trying to be mischievous why would NNPC want them to decommission an asset they have sold based on a debt which they new entity will absorb? Also Seplat never said they were not going to honor their obligations. Make it make sense. You guys in a bid to spread propaganda always love to lie.
Again NNPC has 10% in a JV doesn't give them right of first refusal as the new entity is taking over Exxon Mobil's stake in the JV. Exactly how Oando bought AGIP's stake in their JV with NNPC.

The above is not accurate!

Initially, NNPC had 60% and Mobil 40% in the original JV.
NNPC objected to the Mobil-Seplat deal and took Mobil to court because NNPC believed they have the right to first refusal before any other party outside the JV could buy off the assets. Seplat was not a member of the JV in question.
As a compromise to settle the case out of court, Mobil agreed for NNPC to get additional 10% (making 70% total stake) while Seplat gets the 30% remainder.

In the case of ENI-Oando:
Both ENI, Oando and NNPC were the pre-existing partners in the JV, in the ratio 20:20:60
respectively. Therefore, it was easier for the assets of a partner (ENI) to be transferred and bought by one of the other partners in the JV, which is Oando.

The same problem would have arisen if ENI had attempted to sell its assets to another party outside the pre-existing JV or if Oando was not a member of the original JV

ProphetUtuocha:
Caution:
That which they were excited about it's listing
But which was correctly revealed as
Only but a shadow
Shall surely shed much weight
For indeed, it is full of air
And shall collapse like perforated balloon!

Hi Prophet, I know you are speaking in parables and did not mention the name of any stocks.
But I would advise that we avoid badmouthing or demarketing any stocks. Let us focus on revealing the stocks that we believe can do well like you did with Oando.
But it is not the best to say that a particular stocks shall collapse.
Let us avoid the negativity because peoples' money and investments are at stake, and that brings some legitimate sentiments and emotions. Just keep quiet if you do not believe in a particular stocks

IGBOPROMISE1:
Dude, YOU were the one who stupidly referenced loans as the reason why Dr Orjiakor was removed from office! Wigwe, Avuru and the others you mentioned are all expendable pawns in the powerplay Buhari and Tinubu are engaged in! Whatever actions or inactions attributable to them were either instigated or directed directly or indirectly by the one at the very top! Assuming a loan was indeed taken by Dr Orjiakor from Access bank, does anyone really think that if it was just between the lender and borrower that things would have got to the point of the lender causing the borrower grief to the point of him having to be relieved of his position as chairman of SEPLAT!? What exactly was the amount of this loan that it couldn't be restructured or paid back by the chairman of the largest indigenous oil and gas coy in Nigeria!? You see what i mean when i say the story sounds somehow? As Judge Judy normally says, 'if it doesn't make sense, it's usually not true'!

The buck stops at the table of the president who is the boss of the NUPRC (or whatever they call themselves)! I gather Buhari initially approved the sale of MOBIL to SEPLAT, but the regulatory body rejected it with the flimsy excuse that they have right of first refusal! Were they prepared to pay more than SEPLAT was offering or was it that they had other 'objections' to the deal!? OANDO that bought the entire assets of AGIP for less than a billion dollars....what was it that they did that got their own deal approved almost immediately by NUPRC?

Why exactly should anyone be grateful to the murderous duo of Buhari and Tinubu!?

I cannot defend Buhari or Tinubu.
But I think it was NNPC that objected to the Mobil-Seplat deal and took Mobil to court because NNPC believed that they have the right to first refusal before any other party outside the JV could buy off the assets. Seplat was not a member of the JV in question. As a compromise, NNPC got additional 10% making their stake 70% and Seplat 30%
In the case of ENI-Oando deal, ENI, Oando and NNPC were the original partners in the JV, therefore, it was easier for the assets to be transferred and bought by one of the pre-existing partners in the JV which is Oando

megawealth01:
Truth be told na Oando deliver the highest for those faithful to it that never sold a single unit

SEPLAT has always been a worthy investment over the years to yours truly 😘

Oando must pay me my share of the loot!
I am just watching and waiting as if I am not seeing or hearing anything.
2025 will be very loud, by God's grace!

designking:
Seplat is heading to ₦10,000 per share but I am not buying.

Pay attention to the local upstream oil and gas companies. The FGN needs money, hence will incentivize them to produce and sell more crude.
SEPLAT, Oando, Aradel etc. will do well in the foreseeable future

KarlTom:
OandO

What is happening?
The results go soon land whether good or bad, so let's relax and wait!
Oando no go kee person!

Omooloriredade:
Just to be clear, the Oando move only happened during the period I stated so what happened in 2021 is immaterial in defining an Oando-like SP appreciation in this context otherwise there would be many other stocks that fall in same category or have produced even far superior returns. You would agree with me that there are many stocks that were kobo kobo in 2021 that have produced returns far in excess of what Oando has delivered. How much was Transcorp in 2021? UCAP nko? Now, you see there is nothing special about the Oando return any longer? The shortness of the duration is what makes it special. A lot of companies have produced incredible returns over a year or more. Now, identifying that stock, taking position before the event is what we are talking about. Except you don't mind taking position 3 to 5yrs before the rerate happens. Not a bad thing by the way. A lot do that here.

When some people make projections, they just pluck a figure out of the air. Not you o. I know many people that can't wrap their mind around billions or trillions. They go - there were a lot of people at the rally, billions. Huh? How na? Wetin be world population again? It number of people they saw was just overwhelming for them. I put it to you that IB at 40k and with the number of shares it had at the time and the structure, size, capacity and players in the brewery market then is different to what we have to day.

Actually, you can't just look at random SPs from the past in isolation without considering other factors. Heavy consolidation and restructuring happened. Like I explained previously, SP change after a consolidation is not SP appreciation. E.g Transcorp will commence trading at N40 when suspension is lifted, then someone comes to tell us how SP went from N1 to N40. See gain?
Please see attached file to understand. The previous public offer before this was in 1999 so I want to believe you were not referring to that one. 2007 PO was at N0.87k. Even then my point still stands.

Now another point you need to understand is that a company can not be valued at such outrageous multiples of it's annual revenue and earnings except in exceptional cases (market & earnings potential support it). N8T puts it in the category of Dangote Cement with annual revenue in trillions of Naira (over N2T in 2023). IB's annual revenue is a pitiably small amount of less than N300B not earnings o (paltry amount since you see it trading at Dangote cement market cap na). Bros, it doesn't work that way for such a company.

What is the combined industry revenue? They (Guinness, NB, IB, Champion et al) struggled to reach the N1.5T mark in 2023. The total addressable market never reach wetin go make IB an N8T MCAP stock anytime in the foreseeable future.

@Mike I lumped other matters not related specifically to you that has always been on my mind so don't take my post personal. I just don't understand why and how people deal with numbers sometimes. Ah! Oando is going to N2000, Transcorp is going to N500. How did you arrrive at that conclusion? Number sounds cool?

megawealth01:

Never say never in NSE/NGX!
Look, both IB and Unity Bank can still do an Oando if there is any sudden foreign acquisition or injection of funds by a major international player. You can never be too sure of these things.
Oando turned around faster because of the ENI deal, even though some of us had realized years back that it was too undervalued for a very long time. Nobody knew that ENI deal was coming!
Any stocks that has remained undervalued and stagnant for a long time can do "an Oando" e.g. Ikeja Hotels was selling around N1.00 some months ago.
The real issue is that we don't know the actual sequence and timing of events so that we could buy and take position just before the steady rise in price begins, unless an insider.

Even Oando itself did not have a straight journey from May to Sep2024. It still went down in May-June 2024. The steady rise started around Jul/Aug after the ENI deal was officially announced as complete.

megawealth01:
Ikeja wey I started buying as kobo stock

Exactly. You can imaging the percentage gain from Ikeja Hotels

megawealth01:

Never say never in NSE/NGX!
Look, both IB and Unity Bank can still do an Oando if there is any sudden foreign acquisition or injection of funds by a major international player. You can never be too sure of these things.
Oando turned around faster because of the ENI deal, even though some of us had realized years back that it was too undervalued for a very long time. Nobody knew that ENI deal was coming!
Any stocks that has remained undervalued and stagnant for a long time can do "an Oando" e.g. Ikeja Hotels was selling around N1.00 some months ago.
The real issue is that we don't know the actual sequence and timing of events so that we could buy and take position just before the steady rise in price begins, unless an insider.
Even Oando itself did not have a straight journey from May to Sep2024. It still went down in May-June 2024. The steady rise started around Jul/Aug after the ENI deal was officially announced as complete.

Omooloriredade:
Please o. For those that perceive my post anyway other than what it is- just a humble personal ojpinion, make una no vex o. Countering a position or an idea is not to be perceived as an attack on your person. I welcome counter opinions to my post.

So here goes:

First of all let's define what it means to do an Oando in terms of SP appreciation.
Oando's closing price on the 2nd of May 2024 was N9.00 and it went on to reach N95.5 on 10th September 2024.
That was a 961% rise over a period of 4 months and a bit. A c.540% appreciation for the period July to September.

In my humble opinion, neither Unity bank nor International Breweries can do that. If they were to give that kind of Oando-like yield as described above, a 2008-like event will be required in which case it wouldn't matter if it was the aforementioned stocks or not. It would be a "Point-and-Kill" situation. Roll the dial and pick the stock where it lands. Even Omooloriredade-OIL (that newly registered with CAC and is still looking for office space) will deliver 1000% SP appreciation on the NGX.

Secondly, let's look at the restructuring you are refering to in both stocks:

Unity Bank - In its history has never been in the top 5 banks in Nigeria. They have hit ground zero (actually 6 feet under) and are being revived in ICU by the CBN. The restructuring is meant to recapitalise the bank and essentially save it from going under. One other thing to consider about banks is that there is hierarchy which is determined by market share, profitability and quality of management (among others). Unity is at the very bottom in each of these yardsticks. An Oando-like SP appreciation is virtually impossible except in the scenerio mentioned above in which case, it becomes a moot point.
Now Unity bank last traded at N1.50. Without a share consolidation, you are suggesting the bank will trade at N15 in few months because of a restructuring? Would it be from capturing a staggering market share or experiencing astronomical earnings growth?? If shares are consolidated and it trades at N15, I hope you understand that is not an appreciation For now, I'm pretending the scale will be tipped in favour of legacy Unity bank shareholders post merger with Providus bank. <Yinmu!!>

Internation Breweries - Historically, going back 5yrs, the highest the stock traded was N9.50. It is currently trading at N4.33, has experienced dilution and has just concluded a Rights Issue (6 for every share held previously). The raise is meant to recapitalise the company so they can stem the tide of loses they have been suffering in recent years, deleverage the company and put them in a position to favourably/profitably COMPETE with their peers in the industry. The brewery market is a stiff competition between Guinness, NB, IB, Champion et al. There is little margin for poor marketing, operational inefficiency, inadequate or poor diversity in consumer products and poor distribution channels. Get anyone of these wrong and you find yourself on the back foot struggling to protect your margins.

Before the RI, IB had #26.9B (50k) shares issued and fully paid. They converted them to 2k nominal shares just before the RI (I'm a bit surprised the SP wasn't adjusted on the exchange tbh but I guess it's because the RI was priced at N3.65 for 2k shares anyway). Let's use SP of N4.33, MCAP was N116B before the Rights issue. RI was #161B extra (2k) shares at N3.65 raising cool N588B which is set to turn around the fortunes of the company but at unprecedented destruction of the share capital structure. They now have #188B shares of 2k each issued and fully paid. Point to note though, shares are 2k denominated not 50k so at some stage, a mega consolidation may be required. Back to my MCAP calculation, post RI, IB has an MCAP of N814B.
Without a share consolidation, you are suggesting IB can trade at N43 (N8.1T MCAP)? How? Also, if they consolidate say 2k to 50k nominal shares like most stocks on the NGX, OS reduces to #7.5B while SP moves from N4.33 to N108.25. I hope you understand that is not an SP appreciation

Hey! I am not suggesting money can't be made from investing in both stocks but an Oando-like SP appreciation in the foreseeable future is wishful thinking.

Key ingredients for an Oando-like type SP appreciation. The list is not exhaustive but here are a few I can think of:

* Sector with untapped opportunities
* Favourable government policies
* Imbalance of market demand and available supply
* Established Industry margins
* Huge disparity in peer comparisons
* First mover advantage in a promising sector
* Unprecedented discovery of an opportunity or resource or technology.
* Historical considerations of trading and market share if company has been in the doldrums for a long period and the market opportunity still exists.

Disclaimer - Humble opinion only and not to be taken as financial advice. I have been wrong many times in the past so however we place our bets, I can only hope our dreams come true.

The post long sha. Chai!

I d
You are making the same mistake like some people who condemned and wrote off Oando based on some TA or FA within some specific periods in the past.
IB did a PO at a price of 60kobo and the share price got to as high as about N45--N50 before falling to the current N4.50.
If IB should go back to N45, that would be 1000% of he current price.
Oando has gotten this high because of future expectations and not necessarily linked to its current RI.
Using May-Sep 2024 as basis period for your anslysis is disingenuous because some of us had been In Oando since 2021/22 while some people bought in 2024 just before the rally started. So the timing of purchase is a key factor here.

Unity Bank is currently N1.50 and being restructured by CBN. It can go lower below N1.00 and also has the potential to sell at N5 and higher after the merger with Providus Bank.

"Doing an Oando" for me may be different to"doing an Oando" to you. It does not mean it must be 900-1000% gain.

NB
I don't have a single unit of IB and UB currently but will mobilize to buy if they stay at current prices when I get some considerable cash

nosa2:
Our job right now is to find the next oando before it does an oando

Watch out for International Breweries and Unity Bamk. Those are the stocks that can do "an Oando" when they rebound after their restructuring/turnaround but I don't know when. So only those who have the capacity to invest and wait would enjoy the loot.
IB can do 500%-1000% easily
after their restructuring

MrPristine:
Axxela, owned by Oando is the biggest distributor of CNG in the country. All this noise that people should convert to CNG is just a ploy to use government's resources to promote a business that "Oga at the top" has substantial interest in.

If you know you know.

Please let us be current and stop spreading potentially misleading information.
Oando divested (sold off) 100% Axxela to Helios in 2019. You can google and confirm.

Same misinformation about NNPCL, OVH etc.

This is just for our education and awareness; I am not interested in the politics